Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Little change in voting intention, but Bill Shorten bounces back from his low base and takes the lead as preferred prime ministers.

The latest Newspoll in The Australian has is unchanged on last fortnight with Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (steady), 38% for the Coalition (down one) and 13% for the Greens (steady). The poll also reflects Ipsos in having Bill Shorten bouncing back, with his approval up five points to 34% and disapproval down five to 52%. Tony Abbott is down three to 30% and up two to 63%, and Shorten has also taken the lead on preferred prime minister, which goes from 38-38 a fortnight ago to 40-35 in Shorten’s favour.

Also out today is a Roy Morgan poll which has Labor coming off its six-month high a fortnight ago, their primary vote down one to 36% with the Coalition up two to 38.5%, the Greens down 1.5% to 14%, and Palmer United up half a point to 1.5%. Using previous election preferences, this translates as a modest shift in Labor’s lead from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5. However, the shift is bigger on respondent-allocated preferences after an aberrant result last week, with Labor’s lead coming in from 57-43 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends from a sample of 3174.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average records a contrary turn against Labor for the second week in a row, putting them down a point on both two-party preferred, which they now lead 51-49, and the primary vote, which is at 37%. This is due to a particularly bad result for Labor in last week’s sample, with the more recent week’s result having improved for them. The Coalition and the Greens are steady on 41% and 10%, while Palmer United is down one to 1%. Further findings:

• Same-sex marriage is supported by 60% and opposed by 31%, with 22% wanting the matter decided by parliament and 66% favouring a national vote. In the latter case, 35% think it should happen before the next election, 11% after, and 43% on the day itself.

• Thirty-eight per cent of respondents nominate that Dyson Heydon has a conflict of interest as the trade union royal commissioner and should step down, against 25% who favour the contrary option and 37% who say they don’t know. Thirty-nine per cent consider the royal commission “a political attack on Labor and the unions”, with 39% opting for the alternative of “a legitimate investigation of union practices”.

• Fifty per cent express support for the Climate Change Authority’s recommendation of a reduction of carbon emissions of 40% to 60% by 2030, with 23% favouring the government’s proposed reduction of 26% to 28%, and 10% rejecting the need for any reduction.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,188 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  5. Good reading for the trolls who are patiently waiting for Sir Malcolm the Noble to be drafted in to sweep the LNP to a 40 seat electoral triumph, mind.

  6. Right, so no change from last fortnight. Which renders all those people who offered their opinon of a narrowing/widening/whatevering completely irrelevant and out of touch.

    Lessons Learned 101: The wonderful Dorothy Parker warned youse about putting all your eggs in one bastard.

  10. That is an absolute stinker for Tone. Not a single redeeming feature, not even a hint of surface polishable.

    I’d expected Newspoll to drift slightly back towards the LNP (Bronnie-gate over, Tone’s khaki mate in WA, Tone threatening to bomb Syria, etc), so ALP shifting ahead on primary is a shocker.

    Any idea what the numbers are like before rounding?

    Tick tock.

  13. Jason Clare MP ‏@JasonClareMP 9h9 hours ago

    First Abbott doubles the deficit. Now he has almost doubled the cost of his 2nd rate #NBN

  14. 4C was unwatchable, first Erica then switched over when mar’n came on.

    To have Erica was bad enough but mar’n is one of rudd’s crazies who preferred to see abbott elected rather than Gillard, still hasn’t got over it from the looks of it and got his wish in the end.

    How it could be seen as objective with those 2 beats me.

    Stuffed up the timing with dyson to quit tomorrow though didn’t they.

  16. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll-bill-shortens-stocks-bounce-to-three-month-high/story-fn59niix-1227497176415
    [Newspoll: Bill Shorten’s stocks bounce to three month high
    THE AUSTRALIANAUGUST 24, 2015 10:00PM
    Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra

    Tony Abbott’s standing with voters and support for the Coalition have tumbled to their lowest levels since March, as Bill Shorten’s stocks have bounced from record lows to a three-month high.

    The latest Newspoll, taken ­exclusively for The Australian at the weekend,also reveals that, for the first time in five months, Labor has a higher primary vote than the government as the opposition continues its 16-month lead in two-party-preferred terms.

    The Opposition Leader, who enjoyed a 10-point turnaround in his personal ratings in the past fortnight, has also opened a five-point lead over Mr Abbott as ­voters’ preferred prime minister.

    After a fortnight when the Prime Minister’s hand-picked trade union royal commissioner came under fire, Coalition ministers disagreed over same-sex marriage and Mr Abbott said he “read the riot act” to cabinet about leaks, the poll of 1706 people shows core support for the Coalition fell one point to 38 per cent. The government’s primary vote is down three points from its post-budget high in late May, erasing all the gains from the well-received budget.

    Labor’s support was unchanged at 39 per cent and the Greens were steady at 13 per cent while ­independents and other parties rose one point to 10 per cent.

    Based on preference flows from the last election, Labor’s two-party preferred lead was unchanged at 54 per cent to the Coalition’s 46 per cent — a 7.5 per cent swing since the September 2013 election. This is the 29th consecutive Newspoll survey in which Labor has been ahead in two-party terms.]

  22. Only ten minutes
    Seemed a hatchet job
    Couldn’t see point of playing footage of cfmeu breaking parl house doors
    What did it have to do with shorten?

  25. There was an interesting story in The Australian today about some fraud cases in the aid program under the old AusAID.

    With aid being delivered in some fabulously corrupt places, like Afghanistan, Solomon Islands and PNG, they were talking about a figure of around $700,000 in 2012-13.

    Which is about half the amount that Mr Mantach appears to have creamed off the Liberal Party (using, one might add, much the some sorts of techniques as are popular in Afghanistan, Solomon Islands and PNG).

    Something to bear in mind the next time some Minister starts going on about misuse of public funds by governments.

  26. Boris:

    Yes, it’s true that Marn was a Rudd spruiker. Given the platform he has now, all I can say is thank whoever that Rudd is no longer in Caucus.

  29. Boris@22

    Only ten minutes
    Seemed a hatchet job
    Couldn’t see point of playing footage of cfmeu breaking parl house doors
    What did it have to do with shorten?

    You poor precious petal. 😥

  30. Not sure where Marian Wilkinson is coming from these days but it was a fairly ordinary program. And Kerry O’Brien saying that Shorten would be quaking on RC outcome seemed a bit odd.

    Probably a useful lesson for learner union officials to avoid having the cameras along when you don’t know where you are going!

  41. [PvO continuing his “Abbott’s the only problem” crusade:]

    Which is at odds with his assertion that the coalition needs to stick with Abbott come hell or high water.

  42. Hear hear

    [Paul Keating Ex-PM
    Paul Keating Ex-PM – ‏@PmPaulKeating

    #auspol the biggest disincentive to employment is not bracket creep – it UNEMPLOYMENT DUE TO A STAGNANT ECONOMY!
    6:17 PM – 23 Aug 2015
    67 RETWEETS37 FAVORITES]

  43. Tweeted at 11.01

    [@vanOnselenP: Wow Newspoll is an absolute shocker for the Prime Minister…]

    probably unaware that the Ghost pulled his pants down tonight

  45. In case you are still unsure about PVO, he has tweeted the following in the last few minutes:

    [Labor ahead by more than Abbott won the last election, PMs net satisfaction rating fallen off a cliff. WOW!]

    and

    [We need to remember preferences are based on the last election. They won’t be so kind to the Coalition next time. Coalition primary is 38%!]

  46. pedant

    Did you see the latest on the Mantach saga? I posted article on last thread. Apparently, the investigation has widened to investigate the printing company invovlved and it involves both state and federal

  47. The tone of Twitter really has gone downhill…

    @chriskkenny @shenstone121 @PaulBongiorno u really r a dick Kenny, Windsor is calm clear thinking & sensible unlike u being a 1 eyed dipshit

  50. Good article on Mantach. Apparently the federal issue with the printing company is that it was doing federal printing funded by electoral allowances. And the printing company was allegedly paying kickbacks to Mantach.

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