Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Little change in voting intention, but Bill Shorten bounces back from his low base and takes the lead as preferred prime ministers.

The latest Newspoll in The Australian has is unchanged on last fortnight with Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (steady), 38% for the Coalition (down one) and 13% for the Greens (steady). The poll also reflects Ipsos in having Bill Shorten bouncing back, with his approval up five points to 34% and disapproval down five to 52%. Tony Abbott is down three to 30% and up two to 63%, and Shorten has also taken the lead on preferred prime minister, which goes from 38-38 a fortnight ago to 40-35 in Shorten’s favour.

Also out today is a Roy Morgan poll which has Labor coming off its six-month high a fortnight ago, their primary vote down one to 36% with the Coalition up two to 38.5%, the Greens down 1.5% to 14%, and Palmer United up half a point to 1.5%. Using previous election preferences, this translates as a modest shift in Labor’s lead from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5. However, the shift is bigger on respondent-allocated preferences after an aberrant result last week, with Labor’s lead coming in from 57-43 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends from a sample of 3174.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average records a contrary turn against Labor for the second week in a row, putting them down a point on both two-party preferred, which they now lead 51-49, and the primary vote, which is at 37%. This is due to a particularly bad result for Labor in last week’s sample, with the more recent week’s result having improved for them. The Coalition and the Greens are steady on 41% and 10%, while Palmer United is down one to 1%. Further findings:

• Same-sex marriage is supported by 60% and opposed by 31%, with 22% wanting the matter decided by parliament and 66% favouring a national vote. In the latter case, 35% think it should happen before the next election, 11% after, and 43% on the day itself.

• Thirty-eight per cent of respondents nominate that Dyson Heydon has a conflict of interest as the trade union royal commissioner and should step down, against 25% who favour the contrary option and 37% who say they don’t know. Thirty-nine per cent consider the royal commission “a political attack on Labor and the unions”, with 39% opting for the alternative of “a legitimate investigation of union practices”.

• Fifty per cent express support for the Climate Change Authority’s recommendation of a reduction of carbon emissions of 40% to 60% by 2030, with 23% favouring the government’s proposed reduction of 26% to 28%, and 10% rejecting the need for any reduction.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,188 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. TrueBlueAussie #1130
    Ye, she did not directly say,”I was wrong.” Nor she ever will.

    Julia Gillard is a politician, and politicians writ large will almost never directly and publicly admit they were wrong about a policy they pursued during their time in politics. Unless whatever they did threatens their career, politicians will always beat around the bush and weasel out of directly apologizing, lest they offend some key demographic.

    Not that I am making excuses for Julia. She should come out and directly apologize for her mistakes, but I wouldn’t be counting on it.

  2. I’m signing off. I think it’s fair to say that re-hashing old RGR ground is unhelpful when we have PM Abbott at the helm on the verge of becoming his utterly worst self as the polls get grimmer and the backbenchers get antsier.

    However, JG’s backflip tonight just reminded me what rotten political judgment she showed for almost every minute she occupied the position as PM. Yes she was a good negotiator as Tony Windsor and others keep reminding us. But, with no regard to gender whatsoever, she was a truly awful politician.

  3. [the angst, if anything, is driven by the fact that Julia Gillard behaved like a complete &*(%@-wit in the leadup to the coup of June 2010, as the “Killing Season” ]

    And there it is: That bitch Gillard who knifed a sitting PM. Our Kevvie.

    They dance around it, crying all kinds of peripheral shit about her, but ultimately it always comes down to this.

    What can you say? It’s all been said many times previously. At some point adults learn to deal and move on, but not this lot.

  4. Happiness

    [Turnbull is a narcissistic egomaniac genius…..thats the difference!]

    And confirmed by his butchery of the NBN.

    I have a Liberal voting colleague who was excited that he would be getting the NBN in a couple of years. His excitement waned when it became clear that he would only be getting useless FTTN broadband (AKA Liberal broadband). Maximum schadenfreude.

  5. I’s a long time since I’ve seen Such troll like behaviour from so many.

    The shit must really be going to hit the fan for the Fiberals.

  6. Can I make a general plea here.

    Can everyone please stop referring to other posters as cultists, idiots, arseholes, lefties, etc.?

    Seriously. It adds nothing to the conversation/debate/screaming match to keep calling other people stupid playground nicknames at the slightest provocation; and whatever argument you might have becomes instantly pointless, however relevant or accurate your argument may be.

    So please. Stop. No more verbal abuse.

  7. I’m not feeling the rationale for the decision by the NSW govt to ban the screening of this film:
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/nsw-education-minister-bans-school-from-screening-gay-film-20150825-gj7sid.html

    Does this mean the school could arrange a viewing of the film outside of school hours and it’d be okay? I’m seeing schools organising film nights as part of a kind of an inclusion campaign towards students of varying sexual orientation, or diverse abilities, culture, backgrounds etc.

    Seems to me they’re opening a can of worms with this.

  8. Does this mean the school could arrange a viewing of the film outside of school hours and it’d be okay?

    That’s the impression.

    The rationale seems to be that if it’s shown outside of regular class hours students and parents of students make the voluntary choice to view the film rather than any student being ‘forced’ to watch it.

    I’ve been generally very impressed by Piccoli, so this is a somewhat disappointing decision, but I can also well understand that the NSW Libs have a strong fundy faction, and while they’ve been kept away from the levers of power of late they need to be thrown a bone or two every now and then to stop them going feral.

    As far as it goes it’s probably done the film a favour by drawing attention to it.

  9. TrueBlueAussie #1139
    She said it was regrettable that the student newspaper archives do not hold the relevant reports, but, yeah, that’s what she apologized for.

  10. [I don’t mind being called a Leftie, in fact I think it’s a compliment.]

    I don’t mind latte-sipper either. Been drinking them forever and now every bogan wants one. They even serve them at Macca’s.

  11. [The rationale seems to be that if it’s shown outside of regular class hours students and parents of students make the voluntary choice to view the film rather than any student being ‘forced’ to watch it.]

    Which comes a cropper when you substitute the ‘gay’ film with a doco about living with disability.

    Is the minister going to blank say The Ride, a WA based indie doco about a group of people who traverse the country to show that disability is no barrier? They’d be up for all kinds complaints against their action plans.

    What about new migrants arriving into Australia?

    As I said it potentially opens up a can of worms.

  12. Millennial 1159
    I read this post and Know what you mean. my post was directed at the RWNj’s. Those who call us Luvies or bleeding hearts, just because we have compassion, care about our fellow man; the environment and want a better world for the young.
    Unlike the right whose main traits are greed and bigotry.

  13. So Gillard and Rudd have a very similar conversion on SSM, and PB goes off. If they were in opposite parties at least partisan motives would explain the contortions of logic.

    William gave us a separate thread during The Killing Season, seems we need another for every time they agree.

  14. confessions –

    As I said it potentially opens up a can of worms.

    I think that’s why Piccoli’s stated reason for ‘banning’ showing the film during school hours is that it is not “in the curriculum” (and hence is ‘extracurricular’ by definition I guess).

    I can’t imagine that fools many people – in less controversial areas the exact choice of doco is not going to be legalistically checked against the curriculum, but still it does provide a sense that there could be an objective test (and not a religious or political test) as to whether any given documentary could be legitimately shown as part of class or not.

    Whether the migrant experience or the lives of disabled people in Australia are ‘part of the curriculum’, to use your examples, I have no idea.

  15. [“I’m not feeling the rationale for the decision by the NSW govt to ban the screening of this film:”]

    Pretty simple really… it’s an overtly political film pushing an agenda that has absolutely jack shit to do with schooling and education… uno… the things send their kids to school actually for… not to indoctrine them into some gay group think.

  16. [Pretty simple really… it’s an overtly political film pushing an agenda that has absolutely jack shit to do with schooling and education… uno… the things send their kids to school actually for… not to indoctrine them into some gay group think.]

    Have you seen the film. Or have you been indoctrinated so that inclusion makes you feel excluded?

  17. The Shooting on air of a reporter and cameraman in Virginia minutes ago sadly doesn’t shock me any more. There are just so many thousands and thousands killed by guns in the USA every year. Many many more than we’re killed in 9/11 – more like casualties in America’s longest war – the war on itself.

  18. [“Have you seen the film.”]

    I watched the preview on the SMH site.

    Now let me ask you a question… if this was a film by the Catholic Church telling the kiddies that Gay’s are evil and completely unnatural… would you be happy for it to be played in Public Schools?

    Or would the moral outrage from the lefties be great as expected?

    Keep the politics and gay pushing out of our schools thanks.

  19. “were killed” iPad spellcheck!

    Now cue conspiracy nuts saying it was really government agents who murdered those two reporters so that Obama and Hillary can take away their guns.

    I’m sure some of them think the population would all be safer if everyone could own their own machine gun, tank, bazooka, fighter jet, howitzer and nuclear bomb, as the 2nd amendment perhaps allows them to.

  20. [Now let me ask you a question… if this was a film by the Catholic Church telling the kiddies that Gay’s are evil and completely unnatural… would you be happy for it to be played in Public Schools?]

    So the film says Catholics are evil does it?

  21. Now let me ask a question… if a film by the Ku Klux Klan telling the kiddies that the Darkies are evil and completely unnatural… would you be happy for it to be played in Public Schools?

    Or would the moral outrage from the Civil Rights Advocates be great as expected?

    Keep the politics and Darkie pushing out of our schools thanks.

  22. [“gay pushing” lol]

    I guess if you believe sexual orientation is a conscious choice it makes sense that a film will make us all “turn gay”. (God the world must be scary inside TBA’s head 🙂 )

  23. I often refer to people as leftie or rightie, but only as it is suppose to represent that they are taking the left or right viewpoint, its not meant to be an insult, if anything its a pointless label but it acts as a guide post as to where my comment is directed.

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