The latest Newspoll in The Australian has is unchanged on last fortnight with Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (steady), 38% for the Coalition (down one) and 13% for the Greens (steady). The poll also reflects Ipsos in having Bill Shorten bouncing back, with his approval up five points to 34% and disapproval down five to 52%. Tony Abbott is down three to 30% and up two to 63%, and Shorten has also taken the lead on preferred prime minister, which goes from 38-38 a fortnight ago to 40-35 in Shorten’s favour.
Also out today is a Roy Morgan poll which has Labor coming off its six-month high a fortnight ago, their primary vote down one to 36% with the Coalition up two to 38.5%, the Greens down 1.5% to 14%, and Palmer United up half a point to 1.5%. Using previous election preferences, this translates as a modest shift in Labor’s lead from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5. However, the shift is bigger on respondent-allocated preferences after an aberrant result last week, with Labor’s lead coming in from 57-43 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends from a sample of 3174.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average records a contrary turn against Labor for the second week in a row, putting them down a point on both two-party preferred, which they now lead 51-49, and the primary vote, which is at 37%. This is due to a particularly bad result for Labor in last week’s sample, with the more recent week’s result having improved for them. The Coalition and the Greens are steady on 41% and 10%, while Palmer United is down one to 1%. Further findings:
Same-sex marriage is supported by 60% and opposed by 31%, with 22% wanting the matter decided by parliament and 66% favouring a national vote. In the latter case, 35% think it should happen before the next election, 11% after, and 43% on the day itself.
Thirty-eight per cent of respondents nominate that Dyson Heydon has a conflict of interest as the trade union royal commissioner and should step down, against 25% who favour the contrary option and 37% who say they don’t know. Thirty-nine per cent consider the royal commission a political attack on Labor and the unions, with 39% opting for the alternative of a legitimate investigation of union practices.
Fifty per cent express support for the Climate Change Authority’s recommendation of a reduction of carbon emissions of 40% to 60% by 2030, with 23% favouring the government’s proposed reduction of 26% to 28%, and 10% rejecting the need for any reduction.