The latest Newspoll in The Australian has is unchanged on last fortnight with Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (steady), 38% for the Coalition (down one) and 13% for the Greens (steady). The poll also reflects Ipsos in having Bill Shorten bouncing back, with his approval up five points to 34% and disapproval down five to 52%. Tony Abbott is down three to 30% and up two to 63%, and Shorten has also taken the lead on preferred prime minister, which goes from 38-38 a fortnight ago to 40-35 in Shorten’s favour.
Also out today is a Roy Morgan poll which has Labor coming off its six-month high a fortnight ago, their primary vote down one to 36% with the Coalition up two to 38.5%, the Greens down 1.5% to 14%, and Palmer United up half a point to 1.5%. Using previous election preferences, this translates as a modest shift in Labor’s lead from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5. However, the shift is bigger on respondent-allocated preferences after an aberrant result last week, with Labor’s lead coming in from 57-43 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends from a sample of 3174.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average records a contrary turn against Labor for the second week in a row, putting them down a point on both two-party preferred, which they now lead 51-49, and the primary vote, which is at 37%. This is due to a particularly bad result for Labor in last week’s sample, with the more recent week’s result having improved for them. The Coalition and the Greens are steady on 41% and 10%, while Palmer United is down one to 1%. Further findings:
• Same-sex marriage is supported by 60% and opposed by 31%, with 22% wanting the matter decided by parliament and 66% favouring a national vote. In the latter case, 35% think it should happen before the next election, 11% after, and 43% on the day itself.
• Thirty-eight per cent of respondents nominate that Dyson Heydon has a conflict of interest as the trade union royal commissioner and should step down, against 25% who favour the contrary option and 37% who say they don’t know. Thirty-nine per cent consider the royal commission “a political attack on Labor and the unions”, with 39% opting for the alternative of “a legitimate investigation of union practices”.
• Fifty per cent express support for the Climate Change Authority’s recommendation of a reduction of carbon emissions of 40% to 60% by 2030, with 23% favouring the government’s proposed reduction of 26% to 28%, and 10% rejecting the need for any reduction.
The News keeps reporting that ‘$64 billion has been wiped off Australian stock markets’ today. But those billions never existed, except as Monopoly money or gambling tokens.
In any case, I don’t get it. China has been known to be putting out dodgy numbers about its growth (and probably everything else) for yonks. We know it’s growth, whatever that number might be, has been slowing. Did ‘investors’ suddenly discover this today? Did they think growth of, say, 10% p.a. would go on forever, i.e. the Chinese economy doubles every 7 years forever? Exponential is not sustainable. Stein’s law.
The ‘market’ is a giant casino, alternatively driven by greed and fear on ever decreasing cycles. One day it will charge over a cliff or disappear up its fundamental orifice. Surely we need to protect the real economy from its vagueries.
(End rant)
Recent stories in the press about the shortage of legislation and Cabinet agenda items from this government have tended to blame the problem on a shortage of ideas.
That’s certainly possible, but I wonder if there’s another element to it. Could it be that Ministers and their offices and advisers are so preoccupied with internal politicking that they are simply neglecting the hard slog of machinery of government: reading and approving draft Cabinet submissions, approving draft Bills, and so on?
TPOF
A RC would be in order me thinks 😀
Normal transmission has resumed from PVO:
[Whatever the PMs woes Canning voters should support Andrew Hastie…he’s a great candidate & would enrich the parliament.]
Is it time to review the decision not to expel the treacherous Mar’n from the ALP?
Not quite wow territory, but happpy 🙂
After taking advice from Sepp Blatter, Commissioner Heydon will step down in early 2016.
When the ALP is ahead even on primary vote, with Shorten as it leader, you know you’ve got a problem LNP.
How long do they tell themselves they can’t lose to Shortencomings?
I don’t think what Mar’n said on 4C tonight was treacherous. I don’t necessarily agree with it, but it’s a perspective worth hearing I think. Labor shouldn’t try to pretend it’s perfect.
victoria@48
If paywalled then better to just give the headline so it can be googled.
victoria @ 46 and 48, and TPOF @ 50: I did see that link – thanks – but haven’t yet been able to get past the paywall.
But from what you are saying, the scandal would seem to have the potential to spread far and wide. If federal electorate allowances money was directed back to Mr Mantach in the form of kickbacks, we could see the AFP, the Auditor-General and maybe even a Senate Committee (there’s a nice thought!) all getting involved. To say nothing of the review team Mr Abbott just appointed to look at entitlements in the wake of the Bishop scandal.
Could turn out to be bigger than Ben Hur.
pedant
It could indeed
rummel @ 57:
Well, as the old temperance poem concluded:
“‘You can tell a man who boozes by the company he chooses.’
And the pig got up and slowly walked away.”
teh_drewski@59
He did raise one issue that should be of serious concern to the ALP, union funding of specific candidates who they then ‘own’.
bemused
Liberals widen Mantach probe
THE Liberal corruption investigation of its disgraced former state director has widened to include payments to the company responsible for much of the printing and distribution of the party’s direct mail for the better part of a decade.
Wall Street is expected to drop 5% on opening in a few minutes. GFC mark II could really draw a line under this government’s incompetence.
Story at news.com.au where there ain’t no paywall
http://www.news.com.au/national/liberals-query-printing-deal-as-probe-into-damien-mantach-widens/story-e6frfkp9-1227497159924
[Liberals query printing deal as probe into Damien Mantach widens
August 24, 2015 9:45PM
James Campbell, Matt Johnston
Herald Sun
THE Liberal corruption investigation of its disgraced former state director has widened to include payments to the company responsible for much of the printing and distribution of the party’s direct mail for the better part of a decade.
Party lawyers were due to meet representatives of a Melbourne-based printing company that had been awarded millions of dollars worth of work in the period while Damien Mantach was in charge.
The company’s managing director did not respond to calls on Monday.]
teh_drewski
[I don’t think what Mar’n said on 4C tonight was treacherous. I don’t necessarily agree with it, but it’s a perspective worth hearing I think. Labor shouldn’t try to pretend it’s perfect.]
I would be happy for Mar’n to have his say but I think it should be from outside the ALP whose values he no longer shares and which he actively seeks to damage.
Pedant, I just Googled “Liberals widen Mantach probe” and it got me in past the paywall
victoria@65
Ta.
I had already read it, but that makes it easier for others like pedant.
teh_drewski@66
The Shorten Govt may have to hire Kev as an economics advisor. 😉
4Q tonight reminded me of finding an old newspaper behind the sofa. Good for wrapping fish and chips and not much else.
Why did they bother?
JW – I don’t think I agree that he actively seeks to damage it. I think he’s reckless as to whether he damages it perhaps, but that he thinks Labor needs some creative destruction.
Would this issue simply affect voting in Victoria. If so, can the Liberals lose any more seat in Victoria than they are already likely to anyhow?
As per article. This has gotta be concerning for the fibs
[Complicating the matter for the Liberal Party is that some of the money paid to the firm had come not from the party itself but from taxpayers, in the form of printing allowances that were paid to federal and state MPs.
Direct mail to constituents from state MPs during the last parliamentary term was paid for from their electorate allowances, processed by Liberal head office, and sent by the mailout firm.
MPs were reimbursed via the Department of Parliamentary Services.
A similar arrangement was in place for federal MPs.]
Whatever the PMs woes Canning voters should support Andrew Hastie…he’s a great candidate & would enrich the parliament.
Is PVO another one of those little kiddies that played with toy soldiers & never grew up?
cud chewer@74
I don’t think we have Higgins and Kooyong in the bag… yet. 😛
victoria @ 62: I just got past the paywall and read that article. I think this one will blow sky high. The link to federal money would be quite enough to justify a Senate inquiry, with a lot of “What did [insert name of Liberal Party official/politician] know, and when did he know it?” questions. (Later generations owe a great debt to Senator Howard Baker for that question, even though his intention in asking it was to protect Nixon rather than implicate him in Watergate.)
Goodnight all.
pedant
I agree. It is a mess.
Calling it a night too…..
77
It may be easier to defeat the Liberals in Higgins if the ALP only get to third place, like in Prahran 2014 (there is some territory shared).
[Is PVO another one of those little kiddies that played with toy soldiers & never grew up?]
he possibly had the old lead (Pb) ones – and sucked on them a lot?
If Dr van Onselen is really seeking to slice and dice Mr Abbott, it makes sense for him to play up the quality of Mr Hastie as a candidate. For if the Liberals lose the seat, or only just scrape over the line, he can argue that without such a wonderful candidate, things would have been even worse.
Seeing as how Hastie is such a super duper individual and a shoe in to win Canning, and seeing as how there is so much dead wood in the Coalition ministry, why doesn’t Abbott appoint him a Minister immediately to show his confidence in the man and shore up the credentials of his cabinet?
[74
cud chewer
Would this issue simply affect voting in Victoria. If so, can the Liberals lose any more seat in Victoria than they are already likely to anyhow?]
It might not add any news seats as potential Labor gains but it does make the current ones that much more “certain” as potential gains. As things are, Labor is on track to make a clean sweep of the outer Eastern Melbourne suburbs (Deakin, La Trobe, Aston, and Casey) which is unprecedented, as well as the southern Melbourne seat of Dunkley. Victoria truly is becoming a Labor stronghold.
I could envision the Mantach scandal making Higgins more susceptible to an independent and, less likely, the Greens.
The AUD is very weak tonight, trading below USD 0.72.
briefly – I do wonder if the world economy is about to head over a cliff? Or is that a bit overblown?
I think that the Abbott government has effectively stopped policy development because they know that what they want to do is electoral poison – refer the 2014 Budget.
It’s now too close to the election to go about winding back health, education and social security. So the plan is to hold the line, achieve what they can through regulation, distract the voters with security, evil unions and so forth, run some tax cuts up the flagpole, get their media allies to attack their opponents. In this way they hopethey can lie their way into another term.
86
Higgins and Kooyong would be very susceptible to falling to a new moderate party lead by Turnbull. A suitable small-l liberal Independent, provided they had a high enough profile to get Victorian media coverage (TV News and both papers), could do quite well in either Kooyong or Higgins. Steven Mayne might be a possibility were he to stand.
Malcolm Fraser was prescient in his conclusion about money being safer under the mattress.
Unfortunately he was out in his timing by about 32 years.
Its a pity Bob isn’t here to see these polls or is he here under a new name.
Only saw five minutes of 4c, in short all I saw was that Shorten was an active union rep who had aspirations for a seat in parliament.
Seriously doesn’t every member of a political party image being the PM.
Anyway the global stock market meltdown is the biggest story in town and if the government has nothing constructive to say then its curtains for them.
Tomtfab @ 90 – I definitely agree. I’d argue that in addition to Higgins and Kooyong, Goldstein would be vulnerable to a small l liberal/moderate party or independent. Perhaps Xenophon should consider expanding into Victoria.
Kooyong will be interesting, sure the Liberals should hold it on primaries but Josh is by far and away Tony’s biggest fan, always out there championing Tony’s position, compare this to Petro who was willing to disagree with Howard which explained why he was able to maintain a margin of about 9% over several elections.
93
Good point about Goldstein.
I do not know if Xenophon is a bit much of an SA taste. If his appeal could translate into Victoria then he could be in with a chance.
mexicanbeemer @ 94 – with Kooyong (and Higgins) trending younger and Greener, Frydenberg is flirting with disaster. O’Dwyer is playing things much smarter.
Tom @ 95 – I think Xenophon has considerable ambition beyond being a single independent.
JimmyDoyle
Higgins is more at risk, as it has a well established non Liberal Party vote, Kooyong, on the other hand while seeing an emerging green vote at the western end of the seat, the Greems are still polling poorly east of Burke Road, at state level the Liberals margins are still at or above their long term averages.
The Daily Telecrap had a beatup on Bill Shorten:
[“LABOR Party frontbenchers are prisoners to the union movement and wait to get instructions from union heavyweights before they make political decisions, according to one of their own.”]
I won’t bother with the link. The story is given fourth or fifth billing, after ‘markets lay an egg’, something about football, storms and Mel Gibson being a dick.
mexicanbeemer – You’re probably right, but there’s not much in it – Higgins is held by 9.9% and Kooyong by 11.1%. Balwyn and Camberwell are fairly rapidly increasing in density which means that they’ll become steadily less friendly to the Liberals, but as you say Kooyong will take longer than Higgins to slip away from the Libs.
It’s a shame really that Frydenberg isn’t the member for Higgins. I’d be willing to bet that would be enough to tip Higgins to Labor or the Greens (whoever came second).