Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Little change in voting intention, but Bill Shorten bounces back from his low base and takes the lead as preferred prime ministers.

The latest Newspoll in The Australian has is unchanged on last fortnight with Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (steady), 38% for the Coalition (down one) and 13% for the Greens (steady). The poll also reflects Ipsos in having Bill Shorten bouncing back, with his approval up five points to 34% and disapproval down five to 52%. Tony Abbott is down three to 30% and up two to 63%, and Shorten has also taken the lead on preferred prime minister, which goes from 38-38 a fortnight ago to 40-35 in Shorten’s favour.

Also out today is a Roy Morgan poll which has Labor coming off its six-month high a fortnight ago, their primary vote down one to 36% with the Coalition up two to 38.5%, the Greens down 1.5% to 14%, and Palmer United up half a point to 1.5%. Using previous election preferences, this translates as a modest shift in Labor’s lead from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5. However, the shift is bigger on respondent-allocated preferences after an aberrant result last week, with Labor’s lead coming in from 57-43 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends from a sample of 3174.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average records a contrary turn against Labor for the second week in a row, putting them down a point on both two-party preferred, which they now lead 51-49, and the primary vote, which is at 37%. This is due to a particularly bad result for Labor in last week’s sample, with the more recent week’s result having improved for them. The Coalition and the Greens are steady on 41% and 10%, while Palmer United is down one to 1%. Further findings:

• Same-sex marriage is supported by 60% and opposed by 31%, with 22% wanting the matter decided by parliament and 66% favouring a national vote. In the latter case, 35% think it should happen before the next election, 11% after, and 43% on the day itself.

• Thirty-eight per cent of respondents nominate that Dyson Heydon has a conflict of interest as the trade union royal commissioner and should step down, against 25% who favour the contrary option and 37% who say they don’t know. Thirty-nine per cent consider the royal commission “a political attack on Labor and the unions”, with 39% opting for the alternative of “a legitimate investigation of union practices”.

• Fifty per cent express support for the Climate Change Authority’s recommendation of a reduction of carbon emissions of 40% to 60% by 2030, with 23% favouring the government’s proposed reduction of 26% to 28%, and 10% rejecting the need for any reduction.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,188 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  4. [Ellis was the best predictor of the last Qld election! (OK, he missed on NSW, but anyone could see that he was overenthusastic!)]
    Hasn’t Ellis predicted 10 of the last 3 Labor election victories?

  5. Turnbull is in favour of ME and has stuck his head out on this despite knowing it would be better for his career (i.e. likelihood of becoming leader and hence PM) if he said he didn’t support ME.

    Despite the career implications he stuck to his guns.

    Rudd sold out.

    Gillard sold out.

  6. Rudd had the courage to explain his change of mind in detail, and to do so in the lead-up to an election – putting his position on the line as as a policy commitment (albeit that victory in 2013 was a fairly slim chance).

    Gillard adopted and maintained her position while in office for cynical political reasons.

    We await the explanation of her change of heart with utter fascination.

  7. @Happieness/1055

    He’s only supporting due to popularity (and sticking it to Abbott supporters).

    All politicians have their own agenda.

  11. [Turnbull is in favour of ME]

    I don’t think he is. I was of the understanding that he favours civil unions for same sex couples but believes marriage should be between a man and a woman.

  12. [zoidlord
    ….@Happieness/1055

    He’s only supporting due to popularity]

    You think Turnbull is actually against ME but is pretending to support it to make himself more popular do you?

  13. alias

    [We await the explanation of her change of heart with utter fascination.]

    I disagree about Rudd but I strongly urge you not to read Gillard’s justification for the change of heart. It’s even worse than her justification for opposing SSM.

  16. The question is, are YOU surprised, confessions?

    Have you come to realise the truth about Gillard or is it still rose-coloured glasses stuff?

  17. [Despite the career implications he stuck to his guns.]

    Shame TurnBULL caved in on climate change and has prosecuted the destruction of the NBN faithfully. I have no respect for him. He’s a bullshitter like the rest of them.

  18. We all knew JG owed the right faction. It was obvious. Don’t act as if that has never happened in the ALP or Coalition before. Or is that sort of political deal-making only OK if men do it?

  20. Hapless

    Turnbull is a gutless thing. It doesn’t matter what they say if they don’t have the courage to follow through.

    Of course Abbott tells anyone what they want to hear. It’s good that he cares so much about making the right decision on marriage equality that he now promotes a referendum when only months ago he insisted that it was a decision for Parliament to determine. Of course what happened in-between was the hard right made it clear than anything less than deferral forever would cost him his job in favour of the Scum.

    Of course, in your books Gillard is worse because at heart, you think that people being killed or raped or left to die of septicaemia under the rule of Scum and Dutton is better than what Labor did, despite your routine insubstantial protestations of unhappiness at these outcomes.

  21. Turnbull gave up the Prime Ministership by sticking to his guns on climate change action…..the Cabinet walked out on him because he was sticking to doing something and his Cabinet didn’t want to do anything- remember?

  22. Hapless@1048:

    …and your real crush, Malcolm Turdbull, isn’t a narcissistic egomaniac schmuck?

    Would anyone here really not swap JG and all who sailed with her (save K Rudd, obviously) for the current shower of Murdorc offal (save TBI and his droogs, just as obviously)?

  23. Happiness #1055

    [Despite the career implications he stuck to his guns.]

    Which surely means Turnbull will cross the floor and vote against his party’s policy against Marriage Equality to ‘stick to his guns’ despite his career implications, right?

  24. Gillard was wrong on ME and Turnbull is worse, because he wouldn’t have the courage of his convictions to cross the floor. At least Gillard gave a conscience vote.

  26. Turnbull is only sucking up to his electorate, more “gay” couples per square inch than anywhere in Oz. I suspect behind closed doors he despises them.

  27. [The question is, are YOU surprised, confessions?]

    No. I said way back at the time that Gillard’s position on SSM was because she owed her leadership to the numpty faction. I also said it was confusing for people because they’d naturally equate her being Australia’s 1st PM with being supportive of progressing marriage laws to extend to same sex couples.

  28. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    …. only OK if men do it?]

    Ah…playing the gender card again.

    So soon?

    Of course there was no problem criticising Bronwyn Bishop, but any criticism of Gillard for being a hypocrite can only be because she is a female hypocrite, rather than just because she is a hypocrite!

    Whatever rocks your boat I guess. 🙂

  29. [rhwombat
    ….Hapless@1048:

    …and your real crush, Malcolm Turdbull, isn’t a narcissistic egomaniac schmuck?]

    Turnbull is a narcissistic egomaniac genius…..thats the difference!

  32. [Turnbull gave up the Prime Ministership by sticking to his guns on climate change action]

    As so often in his period as LOTO, Turnbull misjudged his own party. There are no heroics in him. Otherwise he wouldn’t still be hanging around the Liberal Party like a prawn in the curtain rod, hoping against hope than he can add PM to his list of achievements.

  33. One final point about Turncoat.

    The last time the House of Representatives voted on the issue of marriage equality Turncoat sat on the same side of the chamber as Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd when the votes were counted. The difference is that, of the three, only Turncoat did not have the guts to sit where he said he wanted to.

  36. [Anyway, I am out of here before all the misogynists start circling.]

    Puffy:

    I’ve seen comments like this from you before, and I have struggled over how to raise this with you, but I wish you wouldn’t retreat.

    I know the specific commenter you’re referring to, and trust me he’s nothing. Ignore him like I do when he starts bullying and baiting and enjoy the input from others. 🙂

  37. [1075
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Wednesday, August 26, 2015 at 9:59 pm | PERMALINK
    Anyway, I am out of here before all the misogynists start circling.]
    While you are away, ponder this. How come those supposed misogynists seem to support good, competent female leaders such as Anna Palaszczuk?

    I await your explanation with interest.

  40. [Turnbull gave up the Prime Ministership by sticking to his guns on climate change action]

    Turnbull did nothing of the kind.

    He was opposition leader (not PM), contested a leadership spill motion and was voted out by his partyroom.

    Turnbull has never been PM.

  42. bemused #1087
    [While you are away, ponder this. How come those supposed misogynists seem to support good, competent female leaders such as Anna Palaszczuk?]

    Mark Latham supports Annastacia Palaszczuk?

  44. If Labor is serious about winning the next election (and I hope they are) they need to lock Gillard and Rudd up in a sound proof room.

  45. Well.. Well.. Gillard now she is no longer Prime Minister after being ceremoniously kicked out of the job by her own party now of course backs Gay Marriage… like any good leftie warrior.

    Is this the New New Gillard or the fake as shit Gillard we’ve all come accustomed to? I’m thinking the latter.

    God she’s pathetic.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/julia-gillard-changes-mind-to-support-samesex-marriage-20150826-gj8k24.html

  46. I don’t keep track of Latham, but I am among the males accused of misogyny by Puffy & other desperate Gillard cultists.

    I think Anna Palaszczuk did an unbelievably good job leading her team to victory and she has subsequently performed very well indeed as Premier.

    None of which has anything to do with her being female and everything to do with being competent.

  48. [“Eh? What was Gillard being hypocritical about?”]

    Gee I dunno… Being against Gay Marriage while Prime Minister but now complaining the current Prime Minister has the exact same policy?

    Maybe that?

  49. Diogenes.. I made the mistake of ignoring your sound advice and reading Gillard’s “rationale”. My head is still spinning from the extreme contortions involved. If only she had the good sense to be honest, admit she was strong-armed while in office in a difficult position, and that now she was free to express her real opinion. But then she really never had that kind of good sense.

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