BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

A brace of weak poll results in the wake of the Bronwyn Bishop scandal have powered a sharp downturn for the Coalition on the BludgerTrack aggregate.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregates records a big lurch to Labor this week, about 1% of which is down to Roy Morgan giving the Coalition its single worst poll result since February and Newspoll-Galaxy rating it lowest out of its three surveys so far. However, a further 0.3% is down to a methodological tweak in the handling of ReachTEL’s results, which has had a short-term impact big enough to notice since there are, unusually, two results from this pollster over the past fortnight. On the seat projection, eight seats have moved to the Labor column, including two each in New South Wales and Queensland and one each in the other four states. Newspoll and Essential Research both provided new figures for the leadership ratings this week, which suggest both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are finally levelling off after headlong declines over the last few months.

Also of note:

• Andrew Hastie, a decorated army officer and Afghanistan veteran, is rated by The West Australian as the likely Liberal nominee for the Canning by-election, the date of which is yet to be determined. Fairfax lists the remaining candidates to be considered by the party’s selection committee on Saturday as Marisa Hislop, Pierrette Kelly, Ashley King, Steve Marshall, Daniel Nikolic and Lance Scott. Absent from the list is Tess Randall, an electorate officer to Julie Bishop and daughter of the late former member, contrary to media speculation. Fairfax also reports that Lisa Griffiths, a medical scientist at Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital who ran unsuccessfully in Darling Range at the 2008 state election, will be a Labor contestant along with the previously announced Matthew Keogh, president of the WA Law Society.

• I should probably start giving these their own posts, but let the record note that Morgan published its monthly SMS polling of state voting intention on Monday, which had Coalition governments leading in New South Wales (56-44) and trailing in Western Australia (51.5-48.5), Labor governments leading in Victoria (56.5-43.5), Queensland (51-49) and South Australia (51-49). In Tasmania, the primary votes were 44% Liberal, 31% Labor and 20% Greens.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,335 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 44 of 47
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  3. The latest salvo in the internal battle of the Liberal Party on marriage equality:

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/plebiscite–same-sex-marriage-20150816-gizzil.html

    It’s becoming obvious that the only way the Liberals can salvage anything at all out of Abbott’s disastrous handling of the issue is to have a plebiscite at the next election. Not the best process, but it could result in the earliest positive outcome for LGBTI people and their supporters.

    If they keep talking about a popular vote AFTER the next election, every will recognise it for what it is – a tricky but inept attempt to avoid the issue and hope that it will go away.

    If we must have a plebiscite, the good thing about having it at the next election, apart from the saving to the public purse (which could free up enough funds to conduct a royal commission into the source of funding of the Liberal and National parties) is that the nasty lies and misrepresentations that the religious right try to come out with will be lost in all the other lies and misrepresentations that the Liberal Party will be leading with in order to win the election.

    Those who worry that this issue will dominate the election have got it all wrong. It really is a third order issue for most Australians. Climate change remains a much more powerful issue. Trust is a powerful issue. The character of the leaders is a powerful issue and the most powerful of all is which party actually is going to act in the interests of this country in terms of creating work and economic stability. In regard to the last point, all Labor will have to is point out how the deficit and the debt have blown out under this government – especially when comparing PEFO with PEFO. Like with like.

  4. TPOF

    The problem will be if the Libs win the election. Then they can stall putting any result from a plebiscite into action.

    Surely the election itself will be a ‘plebiscite’.

  5. I am a little concerned as disenchanted Liberals seem to be leaning towards Leyonhjelm’s lot. Just because it has Liberal in the title?

  11. There is no issue Tony won’t prostitute himself on….

    The Federal Government has agreed to allow the importation of a controversial shotgun in one year’s time, in exchange for the support of a crossbench senator on migration issues.

    Just like his Christian mate Baird doing deals with septuagenarian Fred Nile.

  12. lizzie at 2154

    I’m not suggesting it is ideal. But it’s better than accepting Captain Clusterf!@k’s promise to even hold a plebiscite as legitimate. Labor need not push the election plebiscite idea – that can be done within the Liberal party and even the Marriage Equality lobby accepts that it is better than doing nothing now that the Coalition are refusing to let front benchers vote in favour.

    lizzie @ 2155

    I wouldn’t get too worried about the LDP, especially after Leyonhjelm discovered regulation of wind turbines, but it is an alternative for economic ideologues within the Liberal Party. My sense is that these are a smallish group with loud voices and liberal access to the ears of Liberal parliamentarians through the IPA in particular.

    I still think the real wild card will be Turnbull. He could wimp it to the end, but for a super egotist who was only ever in politics to be PM he could go out with an almighty bang if that ambition becomes fatally thwarted.

  13. sceptic at 2161

    I think it’s Leyonhjelm who is doing the prostitution. Clearly, he cares a lot more about increasing the freedom for Australians to blow fellow Australians away at random, like his heroes in the USA, than he cares about the freedom of anyone else, including the victims of said gun nuts.

  15. Just watched Abbott on ABC24 announcing a piddling $1m extra for Crimestoppers for a dob in a ice pusher hotline. Wonder if this is the security announcement of the week?

    Nearly all questions were about Marriage Equality, to which Abbott recited the old anti- Republic mantra of “We will give the people a vote to decide, Labor will give you a politicians decision”

  16. [Abbott seems to be conflating evil bikie gangs with evil union thugs with Isis. In every corner of the nation.]

    All the Libs know is that little old ladies quake in their shoes with fear every time Abbott does one of these pressers. ANYTHING to tick up the polling so he can stay in the job.

    It would be poetic justice if Abbott gets shafted and spends less time as PM than Julia Gillard. Especially since he has absolutely NO legacy.

  17. Also an observation on Insiders, they managed to get through the whole program without once mentioning the disastrous polling.

  18. [“We will give the people a vote to decide, Labor will give you a politicians decision”]

    Why do the people not have a vote on signing Free Trade Deals? They have far more impact on the everyday lives of far more Australians. Yet they are negotiated in secret and not even Parliament is properly consulted.

    Will any journalist ask him this? Or pick any other matter than has been decided by the Executive and not even the Parliament – like decisions to send our military people to war?

  19. Rupert is out on his Wee Jaspar farm near Yass. Appears to be having an epiphany

    [@rupertmurdoch: 80% of Australian meat and diary products free range, v. very little in U.S. Much healthier.@.]

  20. While I deplore his policies Leyonhjelm is invariably true to his philosophy. He is a Libertarian who sees a minimal role for the state in the regulation of its citizens or the economy. There is no Nanny state and minimal welfare for Leyonhjelm. Equally and distinct from most conservatives the state has a very limited role in the sex life of its citizens and he supports marriage equality.

    Fortunately few Australians have this philosophy and he is given his 6 years in the sun only as a result of the Donkey vote and name confusion.

  23. Yes I would expect him to oppose any support for windfarms because the state has no role in manipulating the market.
    The active opposition to windfarms on the basis of public health is a bit odd although he would argue that public health is a legitimate state function..

  24. OC @ 2173

    [The active opposition to windfarms on the basis of public health is a bit odd although he would argue that public health is a legitimate state function.].

    Strange that public health does not get a look in when he is opposing plain packaging for tobacco products or the ready availability of firearms to people who have no actual need of them.

  25. dave – to be fair, he could be earning twice that by going to work and doing nothing if he hadn’t been passed over for promotion.

  26. Raaraa@2144

    I never quite understand Happiness / Everything / Mod Lib clockwork appearance here on Sunday morning. Don’t mind the presence, but what’s with the timing?

    Hmmmm I answered this earlier and my response seems to have disappeared.

    Was it the Crikey gremlins or management disapproval?

    Modified answer – she watches Insiders as she has the hots for Gerard Henderson and hopes to witness more of his brilliance. Then she watches her hero Bolt.

    While watching those she does a bit of trolling here.

  27. Oakeshott Country@2173

    Yes I would expect him to oppose any support for windfarms because the state has no role in manipulating the market.
    The active opposition to windfarms on the basis of public health is a bit odd although he would argue that public health is a legitimate state function..

    But coal receives no subsidies and has no deleterious health effects?

    Wasn’t someone saying at least he is consistent?

  28. Has TBA been back to admit he was completely wrong about Abbott potentially scheduling a SSM plebiscite to coincide with the next election yet?

  30. I posted this at the Guardian, but I think it is worth repeating here and anywhere else, because I’ve seen nobody else ask this question:

    [Here’s the question that every Senator and every Member of Parliament must be asked:

    Regardless of your current position on Marriage Equality, if a majority of Australians support Marriage Equality at a popular vote, will you vote for a bill in Parliament that gives effect to Marriage Equality.

    Because if members of our parliament still insist on abstaining or voting against according to their beliefs the proposal of a popular vote is bullshit of the most dysenteric kind.]

  33. Just watched Bolt and Devine. Reminded me of two tennis players warming up before a match. Bolt tosses up a nice friendly pro LNP or anti – Labor lob and Devine gets to practise on an easy overhead smash

  35. Re Lizzie @ 2122: I doubt that the Wacky Wabbott would be doing drugs, but has anyone researched how many serious hits to the head he copped on the way to those two Blues in boxing?

  37. There will be no trickery, says Brandis.
    [Attorney General George Brandis wants the marriage equality debate to be resolved as soon as possible through a simple plebiscite question requiring people to give a “yes” or “no” answer.

    “I’m not sure if it will happen at the cabinet meeting scheduled for tomorrow but I do agree and expect that this is a decision that the government should make very soon,” Senator Brandis told Sky News on Sunday morning.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/plebiscite–same-sex-marriage-20150816-gizzil.html#ixzz3iwaLPKRc
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  38. Jack A Randa

    [ Re Lizzie @ 2122: I doubt that the Wacky Wabbott would be doing drugs, but has anyone researched how many serious hits to the head he copped on the way to those two Blues in boxing? ]

    No, that doesn’t explain it. He was already a narcissistic sociopathic manchild in his Sydney Uni days.

  39. [Josh Bornstein
    Josh Bornstein – Verified account ‏@JoshBBornstein

    All documents concerning Heydon’s attendance at the @LiberalAus gig must be released. Transparency is required.
    #insiders
    4:20 PM – 15 Aug 2015]

  40. [All documents concerning Heydon’s attendance at the @LiberalAus gig must be released. Transparency is required.]

    They maybe all the documents.

    An earlier handshake job?

  41. lizzie

    [“I’m not sure if it will happen at the cabinet meeting scheduled for tomorrow but I do agree and expect that this is a decision that the government should make very soon,” Senator Brandis told Sky News on Sunday morning.]

    George might want to get married himself.

  43. [2187
    lizzie]

    The call for an early plebiscite at a specific time raises the ante for Abbott. Brandis is going to call Abbott’s bluff. There’s very little doubt that a pro-reform process will be politically beneficial for the LNP even if it is internally contentious. Will Abbott permit this to be discussed by the Cabinet? Will his Captain’s Call stand or be subject to revision by the Cabinet?

  44. briefly

    Brandis on the side of the angels this time 😉
    Tony is so busy calling a bloody shovel a clean spade, no one can guess what he’ll do next. As Xenophon said, rather wittily I thought, explaining what the PM means is above my pay level.

  45. Roger Miller

    [. Entire government is omnishambles. aproaching omniclusterfuck.]
    Then progressing on towards their goal to achieve the state of omniclusterfuckingshambles.

  46. The new “dob in a drug dealer” hotline joins the “dob in a terrorist” hotline and police “dob in” hotlines.

    Just waiting for a fridge magnet with all these dob in phone numbers so we don’t get confused. It could have a picture of TA with the slogan “Your captain will keep you safe”.

  48. Respect!

    [A dog out for a morning walk has unwittingly foiled a prison break after it detected that something was not quite right under its paws.

    The pet was out with its owner on the Greek island of Corfu when it picked up the presence of inmates digging a tunnel underneath, the ANA news agency reported on Saturday.

    The dog froze, clearly cocking an ear to suspicious sounds below and refusing to budge, until finally its owner decided to call the police.

    Police found a tunnel about 30 metres long, starting from Corfu prison’s B wing where 21 convicts serving long or life terms are being held. Inside the tunnel, investigators found battery-powered fans and plastic containers of food, according to local reports.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/16/hear-boy-dog-foils-jailbreak-plot-after-hearing-prisoners-digging-tunnel

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