BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

A brace of weak poll results in the wake of the Bronwyn Bishop scandal have powered a sharp downturn for the Coalition on the BludgerTrack aggregate.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregates records a big lurch to Labor this week, about 1% of which is down to Roy Morgan giving the Coalition its single worst poll result since February and Newspoll-Galaxy rating it lowest out of its three surveys so far. However, a further 0.3% is down to a methodological tweak in the handling of ReachTEL’s results, which has had a short-term impact big enough to notice since there are, unusually, two results from this pollster over the past fortnight. On the seat projection, eight seats have moved to the Labor column, including two each in New South Wales and Queensland and one each in the other four states. Newspoll and Essential Research both provided new figures for the leadership ratings this week, which suggest both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are finally levelling off after headlong declines over the last few months.

Also of note:

• Andrew Hastie, a decorated army officer and Afghanistan veteran, is rated by The West Australian as the likely Liberal nominee for the Canning by-election, the date of which is yet to be determined. Fairfax lists the remaining candidates to be considered by the party’s selection committee on Saturday as Marisa Hislop, Pierrette Kelly, Ashley King, Steve Marshall, Daniel Nikolic and Lance Scott. Absent from the list is Tess Randall, an electorate officer to Julie Bishop and daughter of the late former member, contrary to media speculation. Fairfax also reports that Lisa Griffiths, a medical scientist at Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital who ran unsuccessfully in Darling Range at the 2008 state election, will be a Labor contestant along with the previously announced Matthew Keogh, president of the WA Law Society.

• I should probably start giving these their own posts, but let the record note that Morgan published its monthly SMS polling of state voting intention on Monday, which had Coalition governments leading in New South Wales (56-44) and trailing in Western Australia (51.5-48.5), Labor governments leading in Victoria (56.5-43.5), Queensland (51-49) and South Australia (51-49). In Tasmania, the primary votes were 44% Liberal, 31% Labor and 20% Greens.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,335 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  2. I had a little chuckle at this text sent that was sent in Sunday Herald Sun ‘Text Talk’ :

    Tony Abbott ( born in London) emigrated to Australia in 1960 by ship. That’s one boat we should have definitely stopped and turned around.

    Margret, Bacchus Marsh

  6. phoneix

    As mentioned earlier, TURC hearing continues tomorrow. CFMEU are being looked at. Will they be taking the matter further?

  8. [While Turnbull was waiting for the call that never came, the February leadership spill was a more a shot across the bows than anything, given that at that stage the right didn’t really have a candidate to take Abbott’s place.

    They do now. Morrison has leveraged his leading role in what was considered a rare policy success by the party, the stopping of the boats, to establish credibility with the right that now finds it back to where they were six months ago. After Abbott’s fluffing around on the expenses scandal, and his near loss of control this week, the fretting about the brand is back and Laura Tingle’s article comparing this government to Whitlam’s, if a little over the top, would have sent a chill down the collective spine of the right. Wednesday night’s 730 interview has given Morrison an opportunity to show how comfortable it is possible to be on, of all issues, same sex marriage, through his proposal for the referendum in the next Parliament.

    Whatever the sincerity of it, there are several political advantages for Morrison in the referendum proposals. First, by deferring it to the voters, it takes the heat out of the many positions that were forming within the Liberals. One thing about a party adopting culture wars with little basis in social reality, is that it can very quickly become a hundred individual culture wars with everyone’s position as equally valid and passionately held as the other.]

    http://www.pipingshrike.com/#article/9438

  9. Attorney General George Brandis wants changes to the country’s flagship environmental protection laws to prevent cases such as the recent decision to set aside approval for the Australia’s largest coal mine.

    Senator Brandis said he was “appalled” by the decision which was “very damaging to the economy”.

    “I’m conscious of just what a big deal this was,” Senator Brandis told Sky News on Sunday morning.
    …
    The Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act defines who is able to launch legal action against developments.

    Senator Brandis, the country’s chief law officer, said the act set the bar too low which had resulted in cases of “vigilante litigation”.

    “The people who challenged this are people who are determined to wipe out Queensland’s biggest industry,” Senator Brandis said.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/vigilante-litigation-adani-mine-decision-was-appalling-says-brandis-20150816-gj00u3.html#ixzz3ix0YFT8o

  10. Seeing that Women’s Weekly photo of the Morrison family I wondered what hope those children have of ever escaping from Hillsong.

  11. [ victoria

    Posted Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 2:49 pm | Permalink

    phoneix

    As mentioned earlier, TURC hearing continues tomorrow. CFMEU are being looked at. Will they be taking the matter further?
    ]

    Hi Victoria – in the article posted above it included :

    The ACTU wants the royal commission aborted and is considering challenging the royal commission in the High Court.

    I guess we just have to wait to see …. but to me this Heydon guy is just another of Abbotts dodgy brothers shonks – that got caught out as the whole RC was supposed to be wound up by now ….

  12. The Xenophon influence at the next election in SA could be very telling. I know there have been reports that Pyne would be seriously at risk from an X candidate in Sturt. However I am told that Lib polling shows the threat extending to Boothby (Southcott) and Mayo (Briggs). They have already written off Hindmarsh. They are genuinely planning for an SA massacre. Some very very unhappy Libs around Adelaide at the moment.

  13. phoenix

    We will have to see if in fact the ACTU actually act or merely remind the public that the RC is a biased politically motiviated exercise and Dyson Heydon is proof positive of such

  15. [ victoria

    Posted Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 3:01 pm | Permalink

    phoenix

    We will have to see if in fact the ACTU actually act or merely remind the public that the RC is a biased politically motiviated exercise and Dyson Heydon is proof positive of such
    ]

    …. they have spent mega$$$$ in legal fees that they want returned as a result of Heydon’s exposure …. I am sure they will want to mount a challenge to this Kangaroo Court witch hunt fraud … the guy is just another Abbott hired gun

  16. Outsider

    The Coalition don’t seem to be mature enough to understand the consequences of their decisions. So many examples, but in SA what did they expect, for goodness sake.

  18. Steve777: Re Confessions @2199: that word at 25 letters would be one of the longer non technical words in English.

    While we’re at it, why does the word “abbreviation” contain so many letters?

  19. BK:

    I wonder if Abbott went to the local bakery when he was in Lobethal the other day. Catch up with some likeminded souls. 😀

  20. [So Abbott spending more time in SA is just the antidote]

    I’m sure there are still a few wavering voters in SA Abbott could absolutely convince not to vote LNP!

  21. [ Outsider

    Posted Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 3:06 pm | Permalink

    Abbott won’t survive the next spill. Not enough turkeys left voting for Christmas….
    ]

    …. I am more confident in the greater % of the general public being much more interested in voting out some clown on The Voice or Dancing on the Stars than voting out this clown we have as a PM …… I am sure most give a Flying F*** about politics ….. proof is there every day with Abbott and his Band Of Incompetents running the joint …..

  22. Phoenix

    They wouldnt want to mount a challenge without a fair degree of confidence that the outcome will be favourable

  23. [ victoria

    Posted Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 3:13 pm | Permalink

    Phoenix

    They wouldnt want to mount a challenge without a fair degree of confidence that the outcome will be favourable
    ]

    I can only hope that they can garner support from some brilliant legal minds who see through the fraudulent vindictive mature of this RC and take up the challenge – fingers crossed 🙂

  25. TPOF@2162

    lizzie @ 2155

    I wouldn’t get too worried about the LDP, especially after Leyonhjelm discovered regulation of wind turbines, but it is an alternative for economic ideologues within the Liberal Party. My sense is that these are a smallish group with loud voices and liberal access to the ears of Liberal parliamentarians through the IPA in particular.

    I still think the real wild card will be Turnbull. He could wimp it to the end, but for a super egotist who was only ever in politics to be PM he could go out with an almighty bang if that ambition becomes fatally thwarted.

    I think the LDP will not get as big a vote in NSW as they did last term unless by pure luck their name comes up on the left-most side again.

    However, their vote in other states might go up from the presence of their senator and will come from disillusioned Liberals.

    Now what happens to the preference will depend on the next 14 months or so.

    If Abbott decides to reform Senate voting, the LDP will do “Vote 1 LDP”, and these will either exhaust or elect another similar minor party, if of they’re lucky, elect an LDP senator.

    If there is no Senate reform, they might preference a minor party and possibly help elect one.

    RE: Turnbull.

    I can only hope he does a Don Chipp.

  26. Did any of you get the change.org petition by Desmond Tutu calling on Tony Abbott to do something about Climate Change?

    I just signed!

  28. [I guess we just have to wait to see …. but to me this Heydon guy is just another of Abbotts dodgy brothers shonks – that got caught out as the whole RC was supposed to be wound up by now ….]

    We knew this Commission was set up as a political stitch-up to undermine the capacity of the ALP and its union supporters to challenge the government.

    We thought that, despite his credentials, Heydon was chosen because his thinking fit like a glove with improper political objectives of the Commission.

    We were concerned that, indeed, he did not bring an open mind and a fair disposition to the Commission’s work. Especially when he would not let witnesses who put highly prejudicial and adverse claims into the public domain be cross-examined. And when he stood by as these untested claims and assertions were used as political propaganda by the government, rather than slap them down as undermining any appearance of the commission as being apolitical.

    Now, he shows that he is so far off the good personal judgement planet as to sign up to give a speech at an event explicitly hosted by the political party which is using his commission’s proceedings to illegitimately further their political ends while the commission is actually still investigating and has yet to report.

    What Heydon thus has done is put beyond all doubt the illegitimate political nature of this commission as a Liberal party stitch up. The right wingers may still believe in the evil unions, but everybody else can now see that this commission has as much honour and integrity as the people who drafted the terms of reference and required the Governor-General to set it up.

  29. [RE: Turnbull.

    I can only hope he does a Don Chipp]

    There is nothing to indicate that he will do so. But there is less practically or morally to stop him than any other conservative politician for a generation. And he represents a seat that is more likely to follow him onto the cross benches than just about any other in Australia.

  30. dave@2171

    This bloke complains –

    French rail worker ‘paid £3,550 a month to stay at home and do nothing for 12 years’


    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/french-sncf-rail-worker-paid-3550-a-month-to-stay-at-home-and-do-nothing-for-12-years-10457048.html

    From the headline I thought it was a Daily Mail article.

    I do think he has a fair point, even if he took his time to report it.

    Reading the comments however, it reminds me again of a DM article.

  32. [They wouldnt want to mount a challenge without a fair degree of confidence that the outcome will be favourable]

    Not necessarily. Such a challenge could take a long time to work through the courts. In the meantime, both the reputation and the work of the commission will continue to suffer, if not be stalled. You only have to look at ICAC in NSW to see what damage can be caused by what appears to be legitimate challenges to its authority.

    The objective of any action by the unions (Shorten needs to stay right away) is to peel away the veneer of legitimacy that Captain Clusterf!@k has coated it with to show the base political motives that underpin its terms of reference and the way it has carried out its work. Every day the Commission sits is a day when the public can be reminded of its lack of legitimate purpose. And every day that the Commissioner’s appearance of bias is being pursued in the courts is a day when the public can also be reminded of its illegitimacy.

    The other advantage, of course, will be that a legitimate action will require the discovery of all the documentation going to the Commissioner’s links with the Liberal Party from the time he was offered appointment as Commissioner to the present.

  34. From that article I linked @ 2233

    [Justice Minister Michael Keenan called on his colleagues to put the issue of marriage equality behind them.]

    Put it behind them indeed – like a terrible case of chronic haemorrhoids.

  35. [ citizen

    Posted Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 3:29 pm | Permalink

    Abbott and Trump make a great pair:

    ‘They have to go’: Donald Trump would deport all undocumented immigrants as US president
    ]

    I lived in California long enough to know that California ( at least )would totally collapse economically if all these *undocumented immigrants* are sent home. Every day I heard someone saying “those fucking Mexicans” ….but when I looked they were the ones doing all the shit jobs and farming work and servant slaves/maids in hotels etc that the average American was NOT prepared to do. ( guess its the same in sections here in Oz ) …..

  38. Not so sure the Libs have given up on Hindmarsh as Outsider (2212) suggests, but they say Labor’s Steve Georganas is lean and mean in his comeback bid after a couple of years away from calorific Canberra.

  42. [ CTar1

    Posted Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 3:48 pm | Permalink

    With all the best wishes for Unions doing a good job, the CFMEU here in Canberra has some real brumbys.
    ]

    … your country needs you CTar1 !!!!! – go and do a Clarence Darrow on the whole poxy bunch of Abbotts hired guns 😉

  44. CTar1

    I don’t think (in fact I’m sure) that Labor is arguing that no unions should be charged with crimes, but the Coalition pretend that ALL unions are thuggish.

    A little more discrimination by Coalition would help. (Faint hope)

  46. Toorak Toff I am told the Lib polling shows a significant loss of primary votes to X that is not picked up by the mainstream polling (which does not incluse the X option). Apparently its very grim for them in SA

  47. [ “These firearms are not dangerous, they aren’t used in crime, there’s nothing about them that warrants any special action,” Senator Leyonhjelm said. ]

    Ok……someone who makes more blatantly idiotic statements than our esteemed TBA, ESJ or Mod. And they have a Senate seat. 🙁

    At close range (say if the police have to go into a confined space like a coffee shop after a gunman?? ) the rapid fire nature of these weapons makes them EXTREMELY dangerous, particularly if firing slugs or heavy buckshot.

    All that said, if not actually banned, they would have to be registered as Cat C or D firearms and somehow included in the regulations which i think, currently only speak to Pump Action or Self Loading shotguns.

    Gun distributor Robert Nioa, who wants to import thousands of the Adler shotguns, said there was no reason to ban the weapon.

    [ “The lever-action shotgun we’re talking about fires fewer rounds of ammunition and has a shorter effective range than pretty well any other category A or B firearm,” he said. ]

    Interesting from that article that it seems the distributor may be keen on getting the ban lifted before the govt gets around to classifying these as Cat C or D, so they can sell a load of them as, technically Cat A, the least restrictive class.

    A VERY good reason to keep the ban in place until the regs are re-worked to account for this “new” style of shotgun.

    It says very little good of this alleged Govt that they would use this issue in particular as a trade off for a Senate vote.

  48. [ lizzie

    Posted Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

    CTar1

    I don’t think (in fact I’m sure) that Labor is arguing that no unions should be charged with crimes, but the Coalition pretend that ALL unions are thuggish.

    A little more discrimination by Coalition would help. (Faint hope)
    ]

    To me …. the whole thing was set up to as a #1 to ‘destroy’ Shorten politically – and link him to others infractions – “birds of a feather”…..the rest is just window dressing Union Bashing ( I am not turning a blind eye to bad unionism needing to be exposed )

  50. phoenix

    [not turning a blind eye to bad unionism needing to be exposed ]

    Exactly. On the same principle, the PM often tells untruths, therefore all Coalition MPs tell untruths.

    Ummm…well…

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