The BludgerTrack poll aggregates records a big lurch to Labor this week, about 1% of which is down to Roy Morgan giving the Coalition its single worst poll result since February and Newspoll-Galaxy rating it lowest out of its three surveys so far. However, a further 0.3% is down to a methodological tweak in the handling of ReachTEL’s results, which has had a short-term impact big enough to notice since there are, unusually, two results from this pollster over the past fortnight. On the seat projection, eight seats have moved to the Labor column, including two each in New South Wales and Queensland and one each in the other four states. Newspoll and Essential Research both provided new figures for the leadership ratings this week, which suggest both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are finally levelling off after headlong declines over the last few months.
Also of note:
• Andrew Hastie, a decorated army officer and Afghanistan veteran, is rated by The West Australian as the likely Liberal nominee for the Canning by-election, the date of which is yet to be determined. Fairfax lists the remaining candidates to be considered by the party’s selection committee on Saturday as Marisa Hislop, Pierrette Kelly, Ashley King, Steve Marshall, Daniel Nikolic and Lance Scott. Absent from the list is Tess Randall, an electorate officer to Julie Bishop and daughter of the late former member, contrary to media speculation. Fairfax also reports that Lisa Griffiths, a medical scientist at Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital who ran unsuccessfully in Darling Range at the 2008 state election, will be a Labor contestant along with the previously announced Matthew Keogh, president of the WA Law Society.
• I should probably start giving these their own posts, but let the record note that Morgan published its monthly SMS polling of state voting intention on Monday, which had Coalition governments leading in New South Wales (56-44) and trailing in Western Australia (51.5-48.5), Labor governments leading in Victoria (56.5-43.5), Queensland (51-49) and South Australia (51-49). In Tasmania, the primary votes were 44% Liberal, 31% Labor and 20% Greens.
Lizzie – maybe reuse them or recycle.
Would think cutting down evaporation would be ongoing ?
I seem to recall chemicals being used in the past.
CTar1
😀
I agree TPOF. The last two lines of his post on SSM read
“An election campaign is about 35 days – I would rather spend every single one of them talking about economic management, how we ensure Australia’s prosperity, how our free trade agreements will drive prosperity, how we are promoting innovation, technology and science and so on.
Important though the matter is, every day talking about same sex marriage will distract from the Coalition’s core messages.”
Proof positive that economic liberalism is much more important to him than social liberalism. He is no Don Chipp.
[ lizzie
Posted Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 4:06 pm | Permalink
phoenix
not turning a blind eye to bad unionism needing to be exposed
Exactly. On the same principle, the PM often tells untruths, therefore all Coalition MPs tell untruths.
Ummm…well…
]
…. monkey see, monkey do …. follow the leader …
as TRUTHIE once hilariously said … Abbott doesn’t lie – he just sometimes not tells the whole truth …..
( I have it saved somewhere if he denies it – will produce if needed )
[ I saw that. Wondered what happens to the plastic balls later. More plastic is what we don’t need. ]
Apparently they just float on top for their 10 year lifetime. Probably not a bad solution for a water storage that has no real ecology going on in it. Although being black they will adsorb a lot of heat i think?? Be interesting to see how it works.
Hmmmmm…….wonder how many they will lose in a bad windstorm??
Outsider:
Very interesting to hear that. I can imagine SenX would represent a genuine alternative 1st preference vote for many Liberal voters disenchanted with the omnishambles that is today’s coalition.
[Very interesting to hear that. I can imagine SenX would represent a genuine alternative 1st preference vote for many Liberal voters disenchanted with the omnishambles that is today’s coalition.]
Might also empower some more x like (and I think he is essentially a stunt machine like Abbott but smarter and more connected to reality) candidates in other states. Could be fun, hold onto your tickets.
[I don’t think (in fact I’m sure) that Labor is arguing that no unions should be charged with crimes, but the Coalition pretend that ALL unions are thuggish.]
People who commit crimes should be charged with them. But crimes are committed every day. Serious crimes like conspiracy to import and distribute illicit drugs, murder, armed robbery and high level fraud involving millions of dollars cheated from ordinary men and women. And there are highly organised criminal gangs like outlaw motorcycle groups, where a Royal Commission could investigate in far greater detail and with greater powers than a police force.
We don’t have Royal Commissions for them. Why do we have one here that so far has unearthed an underwhelming amount of low and moderate level criminality. Indeed, the biggest potential criminality so far unearthed by the Commission has been the huge amounts of union money that Kathy ‘charity shag’ Jackson’s does not seem to have accounted for.
As for the rest, a handful of people appear to have used positions in unions to extort money for their personal benefit. if this is true, they should have the book thrown at them, because as well as being criminal they have given the enemies of the union movement evidence that can be used against honest unionists who work hard trying to deal with cheating bosses who line Liberal Party coffers.
[Might also empower some more x like (and I think he is essentially a stunt machine like Abbott but smarter and more connected to reality) candidates in other states.]
Yes he’s a uber populist, but if you’re a normally Liberal voting person in SA wanting to register a protest against Abbott’s mob, and can’t bring yourself to vote Labor or Green, I can see SenX being a very attractive option.
How about a Royal Commission into this, if Abbott thinks they are so necessary:
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/banks-push-back-against-compensation-fund-plans-20150813-giyuf1.html
It would be nice, but not necessarily expected, to see a 58-42 poll in the coming week. Just to keep the level of anxiety among LNP pollies uncomfortably high. They make more mistakes when they are anxious.
X is attractive to the extent of a PV well in the 20s when polling includes X as an option. Its what the Lib internal polling is showing. I couldn’t find out what the Lib PV is but I gather its diabolical. On the basis that X support is mostly at the expense of the Libs
Sen X is far more measured and thoughtful than TA could ever be; and not wedded to an unpleasant ideology.
[It would be nice, but not necessarily expected, to see a 58-42 poll in the coming week. ]
I’d like to see it significantly closer 55-45 would do me fine. Just so the Liberals remain in a lather of indecision, not certain to hope that this will blow over or not.
[and not wedded to an unpleasant ideology.]
….other than the cause of Senator X.
TPOF
The Commish’s acceptance that Kathy Jackson was a totally honourable person made me wonder what bubble he lived in. Now I understand.
TPOF you nailed it
lizzie
[The Commish’s acceptance that Kathy Jackson was a totally honourable person made me wonder what bubble he lived in. Now I understand.]
It is a strange idea.
He’ll have to defend this judgement later.
Anyone know if it ‘normal’ for RC’s not to allow witnesses to be cross examined as is being applied at the TURC ?
It was mentioned briefly this am on Insiders.
Cross examination at the Abuse Royal Commission of victims, some of who are only alleged victims, is restricted to the point of not being worthwhile
dave @ 2269
I think a Royal Commission can pretty well determine its own procedures within the constraints of the Royal Commissions Act. Of course, the common law will apply in respect of natural justice (the issue of apprehended bias being topical).
I think the next Labor government should repeal the Act so that any Royal Commission has to be set up by a separate Act of Parliament and is not just established on the whim of the Government of the Day.
The two RCs created by this Government show the extent of abuse available to a government that does not consider itself constrained by decency, integrity or morality.
Any future Royal Commission should only deal with matters that the Parliament (both houses) agree to – including the terms of reference.
For the record, this is what the Act says about examination and cross-examination of witnesses in a Royal Commission:
[ROYAL COMMISSIONS ACT 1902 – SECT 6FA
Examination of witnesses by counsel etc.
Any legal practitioner appointed by the Attorney-General to assist a Commission, any person authorised by a Commission to appear before it, or any legal practitioner authorised by a Commission to appear before it for the purpose of representing any person, may, so far as the Commission thinks proper, examine or cross-examine any witness on any matter which the Commission deems relevant to the inquiry, and any witness so examined or cross-examined shall have the same protection and be subject to the same liabilities as if examined by any of the Commissioners, or by the sole Commissioner, as the case may be.]
[The other advantage, of course, will be that a legitimate action will require the discovery of all the documentation going to the Commissioner’s links with the Liberal Party from the time he was offered appointment as Commissioner to the present.]
No a court would not allow that.
[No a court would not allow that.]
If the issue is apprehended bias, why would that not be allowed?
For those wondering, the black balls are part-filled with water to prevent them blowing away, and due to their material, they absorb very little heat. They’re more insulator than reflector.
At the end of their life they can be recycled, as any food grade long life plastic can be.
They’re not new in California either, many of the other reservoirs there use them; this is just the largest scale usage thus far.
Channel 10 News just made divisions among the senior government front benchers and the PM the main political issue. Including Senator Rice from the Greens saying she just doesn’t trust Abbott. Even though she could be dismissed as a Green, that issue of ‘trust’ is going to be central.
As Abbott has such terrible form on this subject, and he is patently putting the matter off to some time after the next election and over the rainbow, the question of whether you could trust him to deliver will cut deep with a public who simply are finding it harder and harder to take him at his word.
Ta Shellbell & TPOF
This whole thing looks worse the more learn of it.
Discovery generally is a thing of the past with few exceptions.
In any event, apprehended bias is found or not on the extant court record and to a lesser extent public record.
Otherwise every court case could grind to a halt while a litigant fishes around for some stuff on the judge. Imagine what that might be like in industrial law cases where the judges are taken mostly from the employer or employee ranks.
For one I don’t think Heydon has much by way of liberal links.
Barrie Cassidy @barriecassidy
October 10 most likely date for the critical Canning by-election. #auspol
[For one I don’t think Heydon has much by way of liberal links.]
Yeah accepting this ridiculous gig and then headlining a fundraising gig for the libs would never raise a reasonable suspicion. Goodness gracious me even if he didn’t have links previously, and there is evidence he did, he now has more links than google for goodness sake.
TPOF
[after the next election and over the rainbow]
Very apt 🙂
drewski
Thanks for the extra detail.
TPOF@2143..
“Stutchbury belongs firmly to the economic deregulation mob and now see that this government has no chance whatsoever of pursuing the objectives of him and his fellow things both because of the priority given to the social regulation side but, more, because they cannot organise a piss-up in a brewery and screw up anyone else’s attempts to do so.”
..yep, you’ve summed it up perfectly imo 🙂
WWP
What is the earlier evidence of the connection?
shellbell
I haven’t commented on the Dyson issue before but I think the Opposition is placing to much effort on it.
People make errors sometimes.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pyne-flagged-nationals-would-join-party-room-debate-on-same-sex-marriage-before-the-election-20150816-gj08tg.html
[Pyne flagged Nationals would join party room debate on same sex marriage before the election
August 16, 2015 – 5:35PM
Latika Bourke, Stephanie Peatling
Christopher Pyne’s objections to the Nationals effectively “branch stacking” the government’s position on gay marriage are in spite of his own words that the issue would be decided by the Coalition party room, Fairfax Media can reveal.
The fallout from last Tuesday’s six hour party room meeting on the issue continued on the weekend, with Mr Abbott splitting with two of his cabinet ministers, as a poll showed support for gay marriage steady, at 69 per cent.
………….
Support for marriage equality remains the same in the latest Fairfax Ipsos opinion poll with 69 per cent of respondents in favour of change and 25 per cent opposed.
Voters under the age of 25 are the strongest supporters of changing the definition of marriage with 88 per cent in favour. A bill to legalise same sex marriage will be introduced into Parliament on Monday but it is unlikely to be voted on in the wake of the Coalition’s position.]
MTBW
This is a highly intelligent jurist whose record is of a conservative thinker. From his previous judgement record he is almost guaranteed to take an ‘Abbott’ view of events. His bias may be unconscious but it is there, witness his comments on JG and BS (and Kathy Jackson). He was chosen to head this RC because the Coalition wanted to ‘get’ the Labor Party through their Union connection.
You cannot blame Labor for thinking there is an odour about it.
A Witch Finder General should be above reproach.
lizzie
I don’t agree with you and we will have to agree to disagree.
Labor thinks there is odour about it?
But has anything been proven?
lizzie@2072
Yes, but wasn’t it Hockey, not Abbott? That is my recollection.
[You cannot blame Labor for thinking there is an odour about it.]
I can’t believe anyone is defending it – it is indefensible.
And lawyers and judges of all people should be familiar with just how often one mistake, a drunken punch, dangerous driving in a moment of inattention, … on ‘little’ mistake can have life wrecking implications, the implications here aren’t even serious for him, all he needs to do is resign and refund all the public money he has received on this gig and he’ll be fine.
Of course he has also done great damage to the High Court, probably why establishment types are circling around him.
Just remember when you start to kill all the lawyers, please leave me out I’m with ‘normal’ people on this.
Leroy Lynch
[Monday but it is unlikely to be voted on in the wake of the Coalition’s position]
With all the contortions they have been doing on the issue their ‘position” belongs in the kama sutra.
[I don’t agree with you and we will have to agree to disagree.
Labor thinks there is odour about it?
But has anything been proven?]
While I think any sane person could find actual bias clearly you need to study the other facets of bias before you go on making a clown of yourself.
Ipsos 46/54 to Labor.
Video. Ipsos TPP ALP 54 L/NP 46
http://media.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/federal-politics/poll-puts-government-in-disaster-zone-6770360.html
Thanks Leroy.
That must be the first teaser from the Ispos poll due out tonight.
69% is in line with the 72% that was from leaked internal Lib polling.
Whether it is vote changing or not, it is seriously damaging to any political party to let itself be seen as so vocally opposed to something with such significant popular support.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 4m4 minutes ago
#Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (-1) ALP 54 (+1) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 3m3 minutes ago
#Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 38 (-1) ALP 36 (+1) GRN 16 (0) PUP 2 (+1) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 3m3 minutes ago
#Ipsos Poll Preferred PM: Abbott 39 (0) Shorten 45 (+2) #auspol
WWP
Thanks. MTBW obviously hasn’t read much of the conversation here, nor read any newspapers.