BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

A brace of weak poll results in the wake of the Bronwyn Bishop scandal have powered a sharp downturn for the Coalition on the BludgerTrack aggregate.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregates records a big lurch to Labor this week, about 1% of which is down to Roy Morgan giving the Coalition its single worst poll result since February and Newspoll-Galaxy rating it lowest out of its three surveys so far. However, a further 0.3% is down to a methodological tweak in the handling of ReachTEL’s results, which has had a short-term impact big enough to notice since there are, unusually, two results from this pollster over the past fortnight. On the seat projection, eight seats have moved to the Labor column, including two each in New South Wales and Queensland and one each in the other four states. Newspoll and Essential Research both provided new figures for the leadership ratings this week, which suggest both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are finally levelling off after headlong declines over the last few months.

Also of note:

• Andrew Hastie, a decorated army officer and Afghanistan veteran, is rated by The West Australian as the likely Liberal nominee for the Canning by-election, the date of which is yet to be determined. Fairfax lists the remaining candidates to be considered by the party’s selection committee on Saturday as Marisa Hislop, Pierrette Kelly, Ashley King, Steve Marshall, Daniel Nikolic and Lance Scott. Absent from the list is Tess Randall, an electorate officer to Julie Bishop and daughter of the late former member, contrary to media speculation. Fairfax also reports that Lisa Griffiths, a medical scientist at Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital who ran unsuccessfully in Darling Range at the 2008 state election, will be a Labor contestant along with the previously announced Matthew Keogh, president of the WA Law Society.

• I should probably start giving these their own posts, but let the record note that Morgan published its monthly SMS polling of state voting intention on Monday, which had Coalition governments leading in New South Wales (56-44) and trailing in Western Australia (51.5-48.5), Labor governments leading in Victoria (56.5-43.5), Queensland (51-49) and South Australia (51-49). In Tasmania, the primary votes were 44% Liberal, 31% Labor and 20% Greens.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,335 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. i

    I told you so. Bill Shorten knows what he is doing. And what Bill is doing, is stalking Abbott. Abbott hates this. He is a cornered rat. 😆

  2. That’s a lurch, all right. I was expecting the Greens would pick up more than 0.1% but I think they had a 16% in an outlier poll a few weeks back.

    At what point will Bludgertrack give the Greens a second House seat, I wonder? Probably doesn’t matter; I can’t imagine Bludgertrack is designed or fit for that sort of prediction.

  3. The_drewski on previous thread, it is not so much that Abbott is finished due to SSM but that everyone’s opinion of him good and bad will be entrenched by it, when you are 47-53 that is not a good development, (also GG if you are reading).
    View from the Street is very good today, excellent analysis of SSM (am in bus so too hard to post link).

  4. Well one thing that graph tells you is that the chances of a 2015 election are now very slim. Which surely means Abbott?Hockey have to prepare a 2016 Budget – that will be interesting.

  5. Richard Koser@2

    That’s a lurch, all right. I was expecting the Greens would pick up more than 0.1% but I think they had a 16% in an outlier poll a few weeks back.

    At what point will Bludgertrack give the Greens a second House seat, I wonder? Probably doesn’t matter; I can’t imagine Bludgertrack is designed or fit for that sort of prediction.

    Bludgertrack and most other polling is better at predicting overall and/or average state swings on the TPP than on the primary votes of each candidate, therefore it is really hard to predict such seats unless it’s a clear two candidate contest.

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Mark Kenny and Judith Ireland collaborate to examine the after-effects of Abbott’s manoeuvring with the ME issue.
    As it turns out the only Liberal MP who is man enough to cross the floor is gay.
    And our gutless wonder of a PM will probably be taking us to the polls four times in three years. Lots of comments at the bottom, too.
    Tim Watts makes an emotional contribution to hammer Abetz over ME.
    Judith Ireland explains why the plebiscite is a dud of an idea. The attached poll indicates the punters have worked it out.
    Of course Paul Sheehan steps in behind Abbott over it.
    Ten laughable arguments being used to stall ME legislation in this country.
    As I pointed out yesterday Abbott has gone straight to Howard’s play book on the republic referendum to nobble the ME debate. Michelle Grattan.
    The eyes of the world will be upon Australia as the ME bill is debated.
    “View from the Street” – Our timid little PM makes a cowardly decision.

  7. Section 3 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Ron Tandberg’s had Abbott worked out for ages.

    Alan Moir and Abbott’s scoreboard.

    A simple but expressive indication from Andrew Dyson.

    Cathy Wilcox and the sales pitch for Badgerys Creek.

    Mark Knight at a gay wedding.

    From The Australian.

    David Rowe couldn’t resist a wedding celebration either.

  8. A depressing article from Phillip Coorey on Abbott looking to use a referendum, rather than as plebiscite, to forever block gay marriage. What damage has this man suffered to make him so bitter, small minded and hateful? I’ll be writing my coward of a local member Malcolm Turnbull to fire a few rockets. Gutless wonder that he is.

  9. BK
    [Business leaders say that lack of detailed policy for the emissions reduction target is a major concern.]
    But but but BK they “Have a plan” . Just like they “have a plan” for the economy ,jobs, the deficit etc. They have gotten away with declaring “We have a plan” without EVA saying what it is let alone have a policy for the best part of 5 years.

  10. Sceptic at 2300 paraphrasing Bill Mitchell
    and firms will not lift the investment rate while sales are flagging.

    That is the moment when business should be increasing investment. That is their purpose, that is what the fabled market is supposed to do. Facing flagging sales, business is forced by the market to develop new strategies for growth.

    Business has been obsessed with cutting and slashing and being efficient, and not aiming for growth. As the Reserve Bank has been telling us for at least 20 months now, Australian business is frightened lazy and scared and seems incapable of assessing or dealing with risk. That is the real problem facing the country.

  11. I heard Abbott last night talking about how amending marriage legislation in the Parliament would be just letting politicians decide what was best for the people.

    And you’d never trust a politician to do that, would you?

    I’m old enough to remember that this was EXACTLY his line in the Republic Referendum. How could you trust politicians to appoint a President? Ridiculous thought! Vote it down, now!

    Abbott will use anything to stop SSM, including the fact that he is personally slippery and devious. A plebiscite, for all the trouble and expense it incurs, is not binding.

    First we’d be having a big argument about when we’re going to have a big argyment about a plebiscite. That’s already started.

    The the Big Argument itself. What’s going to be the question in the plebiscite? Would Abbott dare try to sneak in somne kind of super-majority provision, say a majority of the vote in a majority of the states? Just like a “proper” referendum? You could see TBA (and clones) waxing mistily about how if that’s good enough to change the Constitution, why isn’t it good enough to change the Marriage Act?

    And it still hasn’t gone to the people yet. Those nasty, devious, lying, untrustworth politicians that Tony’s been telling us about, who can’t be trusted to change an ordinary act of POarliament, would still be wedging and sniping, standing over and threatening each other in the corridors of the House.

    But say it went to a vote of the people?

    Every homophobe and Christian nutbag (and probably a few Muslim, Jewish and Calathumpian nutbags as well) would be out spreading doom from on high if we voted in favour. Every macho, bull-necked huntin’, shootin’, 4-wheel drivin’ jock would be on the ramparts preaching against queers. Look at all the trouble those poufters have put us through!

    But let’s say it passes anyway. Hell, let’s say it even gets a super-majority.

    Then it’s got to go back to those two-faced, slippery, slimy pollies to have ANOTHER Big Argument about it, all over again.

    There’ll be “more important things for the nation” at every stage: at Little Big Argument, Big Argument, The People’s Argument and the Great Big Argument stages. You can be sure Tony’s focus will always be on Growth And Jobs (or is it Jobs And Growth?) at every step along the way.

    The nightmare that so many predicted about Abbott is coming true. The SSM “debate” (more like a shit-fight) will be the culmination of his wrecking ball approach to everything he ever gets his hands on, including the reins of power in a national government.

    I’m not sure he has a plan or a vision, even a vague one. His only job now is to win today so he can be around to win tomorrow. and then there’s the next day to win all over again.

    Same Sex Marriage will be a can that is kicked down the laneway until it is unrecognizable. It is guaranteed to bring out every ugliness, bigotry and religious craziness that it’s possible to bring out. We have Abbott already trotting out his old line that you can never trust a politician,and I’m sure that’s about to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    Sure, it’ll probably rip his goverment apart, but he doesn’t care. It’s the wrecking that’s important, not the lives that are wrecked.

  12. Jace at 11

    Forget Turnbull. He can’t change his own party, where there is a majority deadset against Marriage Equality and want to bind the smaller number in favour to the majority position.

    As Bill Shorten said: You can have Marriage Equality or you can have Abbott. But you can’t have both.

  13. BB

    [I heard Abbott last night talking about how amending marriage legislation in the Parliament would be just letting politicians decide what was best for the people]
    He was very happy helping The Rodent change the legislation. Hypocrite.

  14. Socrates

    Six hours on a so called “second order issue” and they came up with nothing. Jeebus, imagine how long it would take on anything “important” ?

  15. Surely this is the crux of the ME matter: freedom of choice for everyone.

    [At that time in the Netherlands, the main argument people made against marriage equality was that it would infringe on the rights of religious people who only recognise a marriage between a man and a woman. But leading Dutch lawyers and politicians responded that in the Netherlands there is a separation between church and state and that by changing the law, the government was broadening civil marriage. Freedom of religion means that religious denominations have the right to exclude same-sex couples from holding religious wedding ceremonies in their houses of worship. The state, however, is bound by principles of non-discrimination and equal treatment, fundamental rights that Australia has long recognised as well.]

    Read more:
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  16. Regarding a decision by parliament, Abbott was quite happy for federal parliament to quash a decision by the people of the Northern Territory on euthanasia. He makes up his excuses as he goes along. You are right poroti, he is a hypocrit.

  17. The GG editorial today may be disclosing Rupert’s influence, as the meddling old fart is gracing our shores this week.

    [Sometimes Abbott has trouble recognising what is in his own interests, so trusting he would do what some think would be in the government’s and step aside is whimsical, to say the least.

    Take the election of Tony Smith as Speaker. Although he was denied a captain’s pick, ­Abbott made it known to ­colleagues he did not want Smith to get the job.

    The ultimate beneficiary of the restoration of order in the house would be Abbott. Of all the candidates, the person best equipped to achieve that, as shown by his performance so far, was Smith. Yet Abbott and his office persist with petty vendettas, for whatever historical or hysterical reasons.

    Smith’s thumping 51 to 22 victory was largely a testament to his own skills — he has not lost a ballot since his student days — but it also showed that in a fair contest Abbott’s ability to impose his will on the Liberal Party has been compromised.

    His position remains fragile. He is not where he was in February, more where he was last ­December. Abbott’s immediate survival relies on the support of his conservative base. He has done everything possible to preserve it, nowhere more obviously than in his handling of the marriage equality issue. He has scored a temporary victory without a clear resolution.

    As one Liberal MP put it: “He has bought short-term relief at the price of long-term grief. Our policy is not that marriage is between man and a woman, our policy is to have a plebiscite and a free vote after the election.”

    Another tied it to the bigger picture: “In February the issue was about the Prime Minister’s style of leadership and how the public perceived it. After yesterday the issue around his leadership is how he treats the Liberal Party.”]

  18. On another human rights issue, i recommend this excellent website that tracks and measures the modern reality of legal and illegal slavery. The numbers are staggering and not overstated. In fact I would say the numbers for Saudi Arabia and UAE are greatly understated.

    Sadly, the score for Australia is not zero, though we are at the lower end of the scale.

    Have a good day all. Despite my scepticism of Shorten, I must agree he has handled the ME issue well, compared to Abbott.

  19. Morning all.

    [I heard Abbott last night talking about how amending marriage legislation in the Parliament would be just letting politicians decide what was best for the people.]

    Didn’t he say exactly the opposite after Shorten presented his bill to the House? I recall him saying after the Irish referendum that we didn’t need a similar referendum here because the issue should be a matter for the parliament.

  20. Socrates

    I had forgotten about that. There was also the ACT marriage act. Reading a 2013 ABC article this little snippet from it says all you need to know about Scrot Morrison suggesting a referendum.

    [Updated 12 Dec 2013, 10:37pm

    Lyle Shelton from the Australian Christian Lobby told ABC1’s 7.30 that he wants a referendum to kill off same-sex marriage once and for all.]

  21. Morning all

    Tingle has been nailing the bullshit artist Abbott for quite a while now. This from previous thread is worth re posting. I am so over Abbott and this govt. When will it bloody end?!!!

    lefty e
    Posted Thursday, August 13, 2015 at 12:53 am | PERMALINK
    Tingle skewers Abbott

    And his tactics on same sex marriage are about exploiting divisions within his own party, rather than the battle against Labor.

    Read more:

  22. fess

    Yes he did and Shorten reminded people of that yesterday. Abbott lies so much, and the msm dont do a good enough job of calling him out. Yet for three years we were reminded ad nauseam of Gillard’s “lie” re carbon tax. Mind you they always omitted the full quote of what she actually said

  23. The referendum proposal is interesting. Presumably that means a Constitutional amendment so how would they frame the change to try and make sure that it gets knocked off? iIt would have to be framed positively I.e. That marriage be defined as between two people in order that the NO side of the argument has only to get a majority in three states to knock it off. Abbott can then say we put it to the people and they have “rejected” it. That of course would still leave it open to the Parliament to legislate but it would give Abbott the out that he wouldn’t have to do it.

    Of course all of this is academic ifAbbott is defeated at the next election. What I needs to be done is to show that Abbott is being tricky and devious as he I has so aptly demonstrated over the past six years

  24. fess

    And in 2004 Howard amended the marriage act to include the words between a man and woman. Reason. Cos they could see the marriage equality bus in the horizon

  25. victoria:

    Good that Shorten is reminding people of the constant about-faces. And like you, I’m over this mob and their petty vindictiveness too.

  26. fess

    It is obvious that getting rid of Abbott wont change anything. He would be replaced by Morrison. The party are a bunch of right wing nut jobs. I am so over this shit

  27. dear ol finny hits nail on proverbial head!!!

    [Lord Finnigans 平大王
    7m7 minutes ago
    Lord Finnigans 平大王 ‏@Thefinnigans

    1 Been wondering why #StuntBoy Abbott no death cult & Muslim bashing lately

    2 #SSM


    3=Courting Muslim votes

    Shame shame]

  28. While we’re at it let’s have a plebiscite about voluntary euthanasia, school chaplains, taxing churches? – and the list goes on.

  29. lizzie

    Speaking of small. A teacher from my daughter’s school passed away suddenly last Friday due to heart attack. His funeral will be tomorrow. He was in his early fifties. I happened to see him a few days before at school. He was so full of life and his usual friendly engaging self. He was very small in stature with a huge personality. He taught classes but was also deputy principal.
    I always marvelled at how a small man could garner respect by students who were all so tall next to him.
    I am now marvelling at the profound pouring of grief and respect being shown by the students who have really been impacted by his sudden passing. The school community is heartbroken.
    RIP Mr C. 🙁

  30. victoria

    [3=Courting Muslim votes]
    Anti ME people have often mentioned upsetting “conservative muslims” should it be allowed . Is Abbott that desperate for allies on this issue ?

  31. poroti

    Abbott will do whatever it takes. In any event, as Tingle said. Abbott is also doing this to keep his authority within the govt itself

  32. vic
    Many years ago an extremely popular youngish teacher at the primary school our children attended was killed in a road crash in the local area. The whole community was devastated and his memory is still recognised at the school.

  33. BK

    I am in no doubt, the same will occur in this instance. On Monday morning when students arrived at school, they all congregated around the flagpoles near the front entrance of the school which is surrounded by a garden bed. The teachers also attended in solidarity. They stood there for up to 30 minutes in total silence. The respectful silence was truly profound.

  34. vic
    I was past Chairman of the school council at the time and I can still see in my mind’s eye the image of Shane serenading the rapt children with his guitar accompaniment. He was one of several excellent and committed teachers present at the school at the time. Interestingly once the inaugural principal left the school it sort of went to the pack with respect to the teaching staff demonstrating what influence good leadership has in that environment. This was in the early 1980s.
    As it happens last week we had a surprise visit from said principal and his wife and many a laugh was had.

  35. I note that Victoria has swung out to 58-42 against the Coalition. I’d really like to see a 6 in front of that soon. No doubt Abbott will oblige with another moronic captain’s pick.

  36. BK
    I have noticed that for some time Uhlmann has been covertly spruiking for Morrison.

    Maybe not so covertly.

    I don’t hold it against him, I find the journo/pollie dance obscene in general

  37. On that topic, it’ll be interesting to see the opinion polls taken soon after the equal marriage non-decision by the Coalition party room. It’s always assumed to be an issue that is not at the top of most voters’ agendas, but the sneaky way in which Abbott manipulated the meeting does feed into perceptions of him as untrustworthy.

  38. Xoanon

    The meme being spouted by the fibs together with some in the media is that the best course is now for the public to have a vote on ssm

  39. [Anti ME people have often mentioned upsetting “conservative muslims” should it be allowed . Is Abbott that desperate for allies on this issue ?]

    Putting aside the question of Abbott and co are suddenly so concerned about muslim religious concerns when five minutes ago they were going hysterical over halal certification, I still find it hard to believe that muslims will vote specifically on this issue – especially when Abbott and his colleagues have gone so far out of their way to set them up as scapegoats for middle east terrorism.

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