The BludgerTrack poll aggregates records a big lurch to Labor this week, about 1% of which is down to Roy Morgan giving the Coalition its single worst poll result since February and Newspoll-Galaxy rating it lowest out of its three surveys so far. However, a further 0.3% is down to a methodological tweak in the handling of ReachTEL’s results, which has had a short-term impact big enough to notice since there are, unusually, two results from this pollster over the past fortnight. On the seat projection, eight seats have moved to the Labor column, including two each in New South Wales and Queensland and one each in the other four states. Newspoll and Essential Research both provided new figures for the leadership ratings this week, which suggest both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are finally levelling off after headlong declines over the last few months.
Also of note:
• Andrew Hastie, a decorated army officer and Afghanistan veteran, is rated by The West Australian as the likely Liberal nominee for the Canning by-election, the date of which is yet to be determined. Fairfax lists the remaining candidates to be considered by the party’s selection committee on Saturday as Marisa Hislop, Pierrette Kelly, Ashley King, Steve Marshall, Daniel Nikolic and Lance Scott. Absent from the list is Tess Randall, an electorate officer to Julie Bishop and daughter of the late former member, contrary to media speculation. Fairfax also reports that Lisa Griffiths, a medical scientist at Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital who ran unsuccessfully in Darling Range at the 2008 state election, will be a Labor contestant along with the previously announced Matthew Keogh, president of the WA Law Society.
• I should probably start giving these their own posts, but let the record note that Morgan published its monthly SMS polling of state voting intention on Monday, which had Coalition governments leading in New South Wales (56-44) and trailing in Western Australia (51.5-48.5), Labor governments leading in Victoria (56.5-43.5), Queensland (51-49) and South Australia (51-49). In Tasmania, the primary votes were 44% Liberal, 31% Labor and 20% Greens.
[The meme being spouted by the fibs together with some in the media is that the best course is now for the public to have a vote on ssm]
…..but not to have a vote NOW.
Same sex marriage when it becomes legal will not be compulsory.
All the push for a plebiscite on SSM will do is encourage people to ask why can’t we have a plebiscite for (insert contentious issue here)?
Why can’t we have a plebiscite on education changes?
Why can’t we have a plebiscite on medicare changes?
Why can’t we have a plebiscite on changes to penalty rates?
Why can’t we have a plebiscite on cuts to the ABC and SBS?
Why can’t we have a plebiscite on building subs in Australia?
Why can’t we have a plebiscite on voluntary euthanasia?
Why can’t we have a plebiscite on politician’s pay and conditions?
As typical with Abbott’s reactionary radicalism any standard, any tradition, any institution is fair game to burn down in his pursuit of power. It is impossible to overstate what a disaster he is.
Murdoch angling for leadership change?
[FRUSTRATED Liberal Party fundraisers are privately talking-up the joint leadership potential of Julie Bishop and Malcolm Turnbull as they lament their inability to raise money under Tony Abbott’s prime ministership.
The message has reached the office of moderate Liberal Party frontbenchers, who are fuming over Mr Abbott’s decision to prevent a conscience vote on gay marriage.
Described to The Courier-Mail yesterday by one frontbench office as “the worst captain’s pick” Mr Abbott had made and talks are re-emerging of Mr Turnbull not ruling out a challenge for the leadership.]
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/tony-abbotts-gay-marriage-captains-pick-making-it-difficult-for-liberal-party-to-raise-funds/story-fnihsrk2-1227481338778
[ I still find it hard to believe that muslims will vote specifically on this issue – especially when Abbott and his colleagues have gone so far out of their way to set them up as scapegoats for middle east terrorism.]
There might be some stupid enough, but not very many. Abbott has made his distaste for them pretty obvious and I don’t think many have missed the message or will soon forget it. Many will see common cause with the GLBT community. Minorities this government is determined to attack in order to feed it’s most ugly base elements.
citizen
[they lament their inability to raise money under Tony Abbott’s prime ministership.]
I find this the most amusing reaction of all. Never mind the policy, never mind he’s a failure as PM. “Waaah! We can’t raise any money!” Shows where their heart really are. 😀
A ‘look over there’ what a surprise –
[ Liberal MP Dan Tehan says Australia should bomb Islamic State targets in Syria as internal debate over same-sex marriage continues in government ranks. ]
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2015/aug/13/security-committee-chair-says-bomb-syria-politics-live
The threshold for holding and then passing referendums is very high:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Australia
It’s difficult to imagine a Constitutional referendum being approved by the Parliament, which would first have to pass a bill containing the constitutional amendment.
This is one of the whackier propositions yet advanced.
[This is one of the whackier propositions yet advanced.]
Briefly, far from being whacky it makes great sense if the objective is to forestall marriage equality for as long as possible if not forever.
[“The meme being spouted by the fibs together with some in the media is that the best course is now for the public to have a vote on ssm”]
Plebiscite should be held at the same time as the election.
Which is next year.
Time for the public to have a conscious vote.
So if a referendum was held is there any chance that it might actually backfire on then and get up?
Ulhmann once stood for the ACT Legislative Assembly for a right wing religious group (tautology?) so he probably has much in common with Morrison.
ratsak at 52
Surely, the big question is why does this issue need to go to a plebiscite while this government is signing away the rights of Australian workers and many other Australians in secret free trade deals.
The free trade deals are not even being put to Parliament, let alone the people. Yet they will have far more direct lasting impact, a lot of it negative, on the lives of many more Australians, that simply giving LGBTI people in relationships the same right to choose whether to formalise that relationship in a marriage that other adult Australians have.
[Time for the public to have a conscious vote.]
If that was the case they’d never elect this bunch of shysters, crooks and incompetents.
For what it’s worth, Murdoch’s Oz today:
[ Savva: More errors of judgment from Prime Minister Tony Abbott have led to anger and despair among Liberal MPs.
Crowe: Tony Abbott is staring down internal critics of his plan for a plebiscite on same-sex marriage.
Shanahan: Tony Abbott had two significant political and policy victories this week yet will struggle to see the benefits.
Sheridan: Border control, climate change and military upgrading are positives for the Coalition.]
At least they have become completely sidetracked from claiming how bad is the Opposition!
@62 – again, because this lot of scared shi**ess of angering a fringe in their own party.
It’s a cowardly act but a morally bankrupt Government, since they’re taking their ideas from the ACL and Cory Bernardi.
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/how-robots-can-start-working-with-people-2015-8
[The next generation of robots may not rob us of our jobs after all. In fact, they may actually help us become better at our work.
Or at least that’s how Jim Lawton, the chief product and marketing officer at Rethink Robotics, pitches the machines his company is making.
Historically, traditional robots have taken humans out of the loop in the workplace replacing employees as a cheaper alternative. But collaborative robots — which are the next wave of of machines — are all about enabling humans to do a better job.]
*from*
News Flash
Troll proposes “Plebiscite should be held at the same time as the election.”, misreading Menzies House briefing notes which required vote to be put off to some time just out of sight and out of reach.
TPOF
Tones can ease off as the Daily Telegraph continues the “good work” re muslims..
It’s paywalled.
[How your chicken is certified halal.
AUSTRALIA’S chickens are blessed by an accredited Muslim man as they whiz down the production line to the beheading machine at the rate of 200 a minute]
While non halal chickens get taken individually to a palliative care centre with soothing music being played before they voluntarily end their lives?
[…but not to have a vote NOW.]
Exactly. If they were sincere about their desire for a plebiscite, they’d hold it concurrently with the federal election which is just over a year away. Plenty of time to set it up and have a debate.
Clearly just a waffly delaying tactic.
Let’s just cut to the chase and elect a Labor government. Saves money, as we don’t need to run a plebiscite (and even if it’s run with an election, it will cost money) and produces the same result.
[…far from being whacky it makes great sense if the objective is to forestall marriage equality for as long as possible if not forever.]
Reminds me of the unlamented Liberal ex-government here in Victoria, which decided not to build a much-needed new rail tunnel under the Melbourne CBD because it would cause disruption.
As someone said to me at the time, any reason is a good reason when you actually don’t want to do anything at all.
[58
TPOF
This is one of the whackier propositions yet advanced.
Briefly, far from being whacky it makes great sense if the objective is to forestall marriage equality for as long as possible if not forever.]
I get that.
A referendum must be focused on a specific proposition for adoption in the constitution. What would this proposition be? That marriage be defined as it now is? Such a proposition would likely not pass the Parliament. If it did, it would certainly fail to pass the double majority required for adoption. Where would that leave the opponents of ME?
On the other hand, if the Parliament passed a bill that re-defined marriage and it passed the popular vote, then those religious organs that oppose ME would probably be required to celebrate same sex marriages.
So…safe to say, a referendum will not occur.
The LNP are playing with the idea of a plebiscite. But once again, what questions would be posed?
This is all just a device. The current policy, which specifies compulsory bigotry on the part of the LNP, is just untenable. It will tear the Liberals apart soon enough. So Abbott has put an expiry date on it. His solution is to have no policy at all following the next election. That is classic Abbott…avoidance, sleight of hand, concealment, fraud, cowardice.
[Let’s just cut to the chase and elect a Labor government. Saves money, as we don’t need to run a plebiscite (and even if it’s run with an election, it will cost money) and produces the same result.]
Precisely the win Abbott has gift wrapped for Shorten. Like View from the Street said, they should send him a card.
You can have nice things, or you can have Tony Abbott. You can’t have both.
So how big a bullshit artist is the PM ? The one calling for a plebiscite/referendum on the ME issue. Katherine Murphy quotes Abbott from a QT in May. My bolding.
[
Q: Prime minister, (same-sex marriage) has come before the parliament a number of times though. Isn’t it time now to just give it to the public and make it a referendum?
Tony Abbott: Well, that’s an interesting point. Referendums are held in this country where there is a proposal to change the constitution. I don’t think anyone’s suggesting that the constitution needs to be changed in this respect. Under the constitution, questions of marriage are the preserve of the commonwealth parliament; other matters of regulation of society are normally a matter for the state parliaments. Plainly, this is a matter that could quite properly come before the commonwealth parliament if members of parliament wanted it to be raised.]
BCassidy just finished his weekly segment with Jon Faine on ABC774.
In a nutshell, Abbott orchestrated the ssm debate to get his way and sure up his supporter base. He may have had a win but as according to Savva and what Faine reiterated, ministers are seething.
Cassidy reckons the party is now more bitterly divided than it was in 2009 pre climate policy and Turnbull
test
The Muslim community and the LGBT community are not mutually exclusive.
[“So if a referendum was held is there any chance that it might actually backfire on then and get up?”]
People from the right accept the will of the people… something the left and the Labor Party do not.
That’s why the left doesn’t want a Plebiscite, they think a vocal minority should make all the rules.
[On the other hand, if the Parliament passed a bill that re-defined marriage and it passed the popular vote, then those religious organs that oppose ME would probably be required to celebrate same sex marriages.]
Really?
[“Let’s just cut to the chase and elect a Labor government. Saves money, as we don’t need to run a plebiscite (and even if it’s run with an election, it will cost money) and produces the same result.”]
Or hold a Plebiscite at the Same Time as the Election.
If people vote No to Gay Marriage, but vote in Shorten he will be seen as a undemocratic, anti-Australian traitor who hates the democratic will of the people.
It’ll be his Carbon Tax moment and will haunt him until the next election day.
[ Reminds me of the unlamented Liberal ex-government here in Victoria, which decided not to build a much-needed new rail tunnel under the Melbourne CBD because it would cause disruption.]
Same sort of argument used on NBN and other stuff.
Will interesting if abbott closes Entcsh down on Monday when he seeks to introduce his Bill or if the Opposition moves an SSO, seeking to bring on an immediate vote.
abbott’s numbers should see any SSO defeated but we may see some of the tories cross the floor. Including some Cabinet Ministers ?
IPSOS should be out that week.
Nikk Savva’s latest paywalled
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/index.html?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a&mode=premium&dest=http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/same-sex-marriage-tony-abbott-mishandles-issue/story-fnahw9xv-1227480878772&memtype=anonymous
Recent Newscorpse Editorial – Just for truthie –
[It is a sad state of affairs when backbenchers decide that their leader cannot be trusted to make decisions on their behalf.
Actually it is more than sad. It is ominous…..
Coalition MPs had serious doubts before about Tony Abbott’s judgment. Now, the well is almost dry….
It goes beyond a loss of faith in him and his captain’s calls, or whether he should have -appointed her to the job. It has reminded them….. nothing has changed from his first days in the job…
…inability or unwillingness to grasp the damage an issue has caused …. or unwillingness to do what is necessary to resolve it.
…. Every captain’s call made by Abbott as Prime Minister has ended in disaster…
…. Each and every wound self-¬inflicted. …..Each made worse than it needed to be
…. Liberal MPs in despair…
…. Abbott was being crippled by the controversy…could not appear in public.
… pretty soon they could again be asking themselves why they have someone in the top job they think can’t do it properly.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/prime-minister-tony-abbott-must-hastily-win-back-his-backbenchers/story-fnahw9xv-1227471643298
[It’ll be his Carbon Tax moment and will haunt him until the next election day.]
By which time I predict everyone will have got over it. So I think Bill will be able to handle it.
I think Katharine Murphy is well and truly over her political infatuation with Captain Chaos. From today’s Guardian Live blog:
[Folks hanging off the debate over the past couple of days will know that the government attempted yesterday to shrug off its internal schism by talking grandly about a people’s vote to settle the question of whether or not Australia should legalise same sex marriage. Doesn’t that sound marvellous? A people’s vote.
Unless you consider the following. The prime minister will be chief cheerleader for the “no” case. The prime minister doesn’t actually want a people’s vote at all, particularly if it is a positive vote. He just wants to buy himself a bit of time to navigate past the fight between conservatives and progressives within his own ranks.
This is not a cynical judgment – I’m just adding up the sum of available facts. To understand the truth of this statement just think about the issue in these terms: if the Australian people vote in favour of marriage equality, will people such as Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison and Eric Abetz and Cory Bernardi just say, ‘Ah well, fair cop. Let’s just let the nice progressivism in.’ Of course not. Conservatives are not looking for a path to get this done; they are just looking to hold off the change for as long as possible.
Gratifying in that context to see the true colours starting to show.
It’s not clear yet of course what this people’s vote is. The communications minister, Malcolm Turnbull, said yesterday he hoped the cabinet might get to determine that. (Good luck, Malcolm.) I suspect that depends whether or not Dan Tehan has a view. (Sorry, too much, I know.)
Last night on the ABC’s 7.30 Scott Morrison said he thought it should be a constitutional referendum rather than a yes/no plebiscite. Of course a constitutional referendum has a much higher threshold for success than a plebiscite. It’s quite easy in this country to get a no vote in a referendum.
Also it’s completely unnecessary. The high court made it clear in its recent decision about the ACT same-sex marriage law that the federal parliament has the power to legislate to define marriage.
Ask no higher authority than Tony Abbott, who said this in May.
Q: Prime minister, [same-sex marriage] has come before the parliament a number of times though. Isn’t it time now to just give it to the public and make it a referendum?
Tony Abbott:
Well, that’s an interesting point. Referendums are held in this country where there is a proposal to change the constitution. I don’t think anyone’s suggesting that the constitution needs to be changed in this respect. Under the constitution, questions of marriage are the preserve of the commonwealth parliament; other matters of regulation of society are normally a matter for the state parliaments. Plainly, this is a matter that could quite properly come before the commonwealth parliament if members of parliament wanted it to be raised.]
The irony of Abbott’s moving circus on marriage equality is that while few people will change their votes on it, it may have finally brought on the irrevocable end of the mass infatuation of the press gallery with him, and the belief that maybe one day he will actually grow into the job and provide leadership.
While we have all spent a great deal of time rightly sneering at the facile judgements of the press gallery, myself well and truly included, they have always had a significant effect on public thinking about politics, even at one or two steps removed. Two years into a three year term, the realisation that Abbott is not only failing to find his feet as PM but losing what little purchase he had on claims to actual leadership will start dramatically changing the national view of Abbott.
I have been predicting him gone for some time. I have said repeatedly that he will not be PM after the next election as either his party will dump him or he will lose the election. I am now more convinced of that than ever. Looking at the candidates to replace him though, it appears that Turnbull will be utterly unacceptable to the right wing of the party who came out against a conscience vote the other night. And after watching Scum on 7.30 last night, I am confirmed that he does not have the public skills required to grab the imagination of the public. And Bishop will never be up to it.
The only risk is that there is something devastating, like a children overboard moment, which can take out Bill Shorten. Abbott has been banking on the Royal Witch Hunt to produce the goods, but it is looking less and less likely that this will be the case. Even with a few employers (all of whom have no agenda of course) coming out and saying negative things about backroom deals, there does not appear to be a genuine gun in the mix, let alone a smoking one. And those employers, nicely foreshadowed by leaks to the Fairfax media, should be pulled apart by Shorten’s counsel in cross examination (subject to the Royal Witch Hunt allowing it to proceed).
[82
TrueBlueAussie
Or hold a Plebiscite at the Same Time as the Election.
If people vote No to Gay Marriage, but vote in Shorten he will be seen as a undemocratic, anti-Australian traitor who hates the democratic will of the people.
It’ll be his Carbon Tax moment and will haunt him until the next election day.]
If by some accident a plebiscite is held at the next election, then Labor’s proposition will be:
Vote Labor
Vote for reform in the plebiscite
And Labor will promise unreservedly to bring a reform bill to the Parliament.
These themes will all connect in voters’ minds. The election, already a referendum on the ineptitude and deceits of the worst government in the history of the federation, will become a moment of historic reform. Voters will sweep Abbott into history and replace them with a new modernising, reformist Labor Government.
Abbott has made a profound error. He has imposed compulsory bigotry on his own ranks. They will not wear this lightly and they will not wear it for long. I think it may be enough of a perversion for them to dump him anyway. Let’s hope so. He is a shameless liar, a despot, a fraud and a charlatan. His own numbers surely can see this for themselves.
[test]
The test is on Saturday. And Cooper is in the starting line up.
TBA,
[Time for the public to have a conscious vote.]
I don’t know if it’s part of your right-wing schtick or if you really are that stupid but, FFS, what people are talking about is a conscience vote.
[Abbott has made a profound error. He has imposed compulsory bigotry on his own ranks.]
I don’t think that is what happened the other night. Rather, in a complete abdication of leadership in his desperation to save his own job, he has allowed a majority of his own ranks to impose compulsory bigotry on the whole Liberal Party – not only those who have seats in Parliament but the broader party as well. Not to mention Liberal voters who tend to the centre or even libertarianism on societal matters.
In a nutshell, Abbott has chosen to throw his lot in with the unrepresentative right wing religion-driven majority in his party, rather than lead them to the centre and the last possibility of victory in the next election.
He has nailed his colours to the mast and they look very tattered indeed.
TPOF @62
I agree wholeheartedly re. TPP. This will have a seriously major impact on Australian society long into the future if siged with ISDS included. If anything requires/deserves a referendum it is the TPP.
[“By which time I predict everyone will have got over it. So I think Bill will be able to handle it.”]
Hahahah! Like everyone got over Gillards Carbon Tax lie which happened early in her piece?
Nah… I’m pretty sure the punters won’t forget Bill going completely against their wishes in a democratic vote by the people of Australia in a Nationwide Plebiscite. Just a guess.
The word spreads –
[ Tony Abbott lectured on marriage equality by Jack Black
Actor comedian Jack Black has lashed out at Mr Abbott’s stance as from “the stone ages” in an unscripted radio interview which aired Thursday.
“I personally think the guy’s living in the stone age though.
Black later added: “He sounds like a bit of a nutter.” ]
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/tony-abbott-lectured-on-marriage-equality-by-jack-black-20150813-giy0f7.html#ixzz3ieOnUv8q
Conscience is seemingly an alien concept to Truthy
Being unable to trust the msm, I used to wonder what the majority of Australians thought on any particular issue. Its much easier to know now, its the opposite to what Abbott thinks.
Why the ALP is going to win the carbon debate:
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/08/12/abbotts-epic-carbon-blunder/
Guardian just posted this
[Then he’s asked whether it is appropriate for the royal commissioner into trade union corruption, Deyson Heydon, to be speaking at Liberal party fundraisers.
Shorten clearly hasn’t seen any report of this. Neither have I. I’ll chase it up, or perhaps blog readers could direct me to it if they’ve seen it somewhere?
But he says if that’s true, if the royal commissioner inquiring into the government’s political opponents is attending Liberal party fundraisers – then that is incredibly serious, incredibly concerning.]
My lord that had better just be someone picking up the wrong end of the stick. If Heydon is actually speaking at Liberal Party fundraisers, just mind boggling.
[ TrueBlueAussie
Posted Thursday, August 13, 2015 at 10:34 am | Permalink
Nah… I’m pretty sure the punters won’t forget Bill going completely against their wishes in a democratic vote by the people of Australia in a Nationwide Plebiscite. Just a guess. ]
To a look at the Latest view on abbott then –
He is losing arguments all over the place.