BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

A brace of weak poll results in the wake of the Bronwyn Bishop scandal have powered a sharp downturn for the Coalition on the BludgerTrack aggregate.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregates records a big lurch to Labor this week, about 1% of which is down to Roy Morgan giving the Coalition its single worst poll result since February and Newspoll-Galaxy rating it lowest out of its three surveys so far. However, a further 0.3% is down to a methodological tweak in the handling of ReachTEL’s results, which has had a short-term impact big enough to notice since there are, unusually, two results from this pollster over the past fortnight. On the seat projection, eight seats have moved to the Labor column, including two each in New South Wales and Queensland and one each in the other four states. Newspoll and Essential Research both provided new figures for the leadership ratings this week, which suggest both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are finally levelling off after headlong declines over the last few months.

Also of note:

• Andrew Hastie, a decorated army officer and Afghanistan veteran, is rated by The West Australian as the likely Liberal nominee for the Canning by-election, the date of which is yet to be determined. Fairfax lists the remaining candidates to be considered by the party’s selection committee on Saturday as Marisa Hislop, Pierrette Kelly, Ashley King, Steve Marshall, Daniel Nikolic and Lance Scott. Absent from the list is Tess Randall, an electorate officer to Julie Bishop and daughter of the late former member, contrary to media speculation. Fairfax also reports that Lisa Griffiths, a medical scientist at Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital who ran unsuccessfully in Darling Range at the 2008 state election, will be a Labor contestant along with the previously announced Matthew Keogh, president of the WA Law Society.

• I should probably start giving these their own posts, but let the record note that Morgan published its monthly SMS polling of state voting intention on Monday, which had Coalition governments leading in New South Wales (56-44) and trailing in Western Australia (51.5-48.5), Labor governments leading in Victoria (56.5-43.5), Queensland (51-49) and South Australia (51-49). In Tasmania, the primary votes were 44% Liberal, 31% Labor and 20% Greens.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,335 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. [Fairfax Media.

    The former judge charged with overseeing the royal commission into union corruption has been billed as guest speaker at a Liberal Party fundraiser. The revelation could discredit the royal commission, which Labor has decried as a political witch hunt from the outset. Justice Dyson Heydon is listed as they keynote speaker at the Sir Garfield Barwick Address on August 21 at the Castlereagh Boutique Hotel in Sydney.]

    My god their hubris is just immeasurable isn’t it?

  2. [ The former judge charged with overseeing the royal commission into union corruption has been billed as guest speaker at a Liberal Party fundraiser.

    The revelation could discredit the royal commission, which Labor has decried as a political witch hunt from the outset.

    Justice Dyson Heydon is listed as they keynote speaker at the Sir Garfield Barwick Address on August 21 at the Castlereagh Boutique Hotel in Sydney.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/union-corruption-royal-commissioner-dyson-heydon-billed-as-star-of-liberal-party-fundraiser-20150812-giy1rr.html#ixzz3ieRWV4ZU

  3. 94 – Ha! Reminds me of the grilling Tony got from Katy Perry!

    A plebiscite/referendum is a pointless waste of time and money. I’m confident I know what the result will be. Some of the wording does make me think we’re heading to an early election, knowing this is not going away at all.

    If we want marriage equality, it’s time to kick out the Abbott government.

  4. This mob get worse and worse by the day.

    [
    The former judge charged with overseeing the royal commission into union corruption has been billed as guest speaker at a Liberal Party fundraiser.

    The revelation could discredit the royal commission, which Labor has decried as a political witch hunt from the outset.

    Justice Dyson Heydon is listed as they keynote speaker at the Sir Garfield Barwick Address on August 21 at the Castlereagh Boutique Hotel in Sydney.
    ]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/union-corruption-royal-commissioner-dyson-heydon-billed-as-star-of-liberal-party-fundraiser-20150812-giy1rr.html

  6. I always said an Abbott Government would be a house of cards built on a foundation of bullshit that would always collapse under the weight of it’s internal contradictions, but the sheer scale of their delusions is just inconceivable. I always suspected they actually believed the Liberal Magic Pixie Dust theory of economics. I always felt they believed Murdoch’s support would allow them to get away for more gratuitous lying than any common fraudster has ever considered. But to believe you could set up a dodgy Royal Commission to target Labor leaders and then have the Commissioner as the keynote speaker at a Liberal Party Fundraiser and get away with it? These morons are completely off with the Fairies.

  7. There’s someone over at Fairfax who posts some very entertaining doggerel about politics. I thought today’s was a screamer:

    [A plebiscite? It’s only bait
    to make us wait…and wait…and wait.
    Remember this is Tony A…
    you can’t believe a word he’ll say.
    Out here inside the Gazzaverse
    we think that Tony Abbott’s worse
    than any PM that we’ve had
    since Bill McMahon (and that’s quite bad!).
    For Tony’s King of Abbottstan,
    a world unchanged since time began,
    where promises can come and go,
    just vanishing like melting snow.
    In Abbottstan there’s no-one who’ll
    deny that you were born to rule…
    they’ll tug the forelock, bend the knee,
    and say that this was meant to be.
    At least they’ll do that to your face,
    for such regimes don’t leave much space
    for sorting out the sheep from goats
    with keen debate and conscience votes.
    If you thought Labor’s fights were tough,
    their knives too sharp, their tactics rough,
    just wait till Tories go to war
    and blood runs blue across the floor.
    That time will come for Tony A,
    and soon there’ll be a judgement day
    when those he thought were on his side
    will steal his crown and crush his pride.]

  8. ratsak

    Perhaps they sent out the invite months ago on the assumption that Shorten would be toast by now and so nobody would care ? Heydon taking the invite at this time is not a good look for him.

  9. “That’s why the left doesn’t want a Plebiscite, they think a vocal minority should make all the rules.”

    i wondering, why we don’t then have a plebiscite on an ETS (as Abbott himself once pondered). Let’s have one on raising (or abolishing the GST). Another one on bombing Syria, and another on establishing a Federal ICAC. Hell, let’s get rid of Parliament altogether and just run the country by endless Plebiscites. Why should gay marriage be the only matter important enough to be voted on diretly by the people. Any reason for that?

  10. Surely he will have to stand aside – too late to just ‘cancel’

    [ An invitation written on a Liberal Party letterhead obtained by Fairfax Media says the $80 cost should be made to the Liberal Party of Australia’s NSW division. It also calls for donations if people are unable to attend. ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/union-corruption-royal-commissioner-dyson-heydon-billed-as-star-of-liberal-party-fundraiser-20150812-giy1rr.html#ixzz3ieUECrAX

  11. poroti@38

    victoria

    3=Courting Muslim votes


    Anti ME people have often mentioned upsetting “conservative muslims” should it be allowed . Is Abbott that desperate for allies on this issue ?

    In other situations they’re quite quick to bash these people.

  12. I see Abbott is jumping on the war on drugs issue.

    Desperation reeks. Pity it stalls rational discussion on how to to deal with stopping the spread of drugs including Ice.

  13. Now that ‘I attended a fundraiser’ is in the public consciousness, because of Bronnie, this looks far worse than it would have when the invitation went out. Still betrays their over-confidence, tho.

  14. briefly,

    It isn’t just Abbott imposing compulsory bigotry, its the large group of extremiats who support gim. And its my hope that people don’t just turn against Abbott personally but start to understand that he’s a symptom of a Party that’s out of touch and dangerous.

  15. People need to finally realise that far from being “better economic managers” the Liberal brand is really about being stuck in the past.

  16. On the previous thread I posted a tweet showing the response of the Arab Council on the anti SSM marriage alliance.

    Thinking that Arabs are all Muslims and that all Muslims think the same way is a big mistake.

    The whole muslims are anti gay is as true as all Irish Catholics are anti gay including on the subject of ME.

    This generalisation is a very bad miscalculation by Abbott.
    It will certainly not gain him more votes than he loses by his Muslims are terrorists implications he runs all the time

  18. “@davrosz: Abbott runs out of a press conference after two questions.”

    i didn’t get a chance to say a presser was happening it was so quick

  21. The Abbotteers have now moved on from a plebiscite to a referendum.

    They will of course bask in the “democracy” of the punters having a conscious vote, and they will argue the No case.

    Since referenda never pass without bipartisan promotion, and rarely even with bipartisan promotion, Abbott has now moved to putting SSM on the never never. His plan is simply delay delay delay.

    There is no doubt that Credlin is a very wiley operative and is so good at translating Abbott’s narrow minded regressive views into effective political action.

    But maybe this time Shorten’s “you can have Abbott or SSM but not both” might trump Credlin. Her’s hoping.

  23. “@latikambourke: Tony Burke moving to suspend standing orders to note that Justice Dyson has agreed to speak at NSW Lib fundraiser. @smh @theage”

  24. The Good thing about a Referendum on Homosexual and Hetreosexual Marriage is that it can not be changed willy nilly by the Australian Parliament and therefore should be supported by Gay Rights activists.

    If Gay Marriage simply needs a vote by Parliament to be passed, similarly it requires just a simple vote by Parliament to be revoked(as has happened in a couple of the States).

    A referendum would make Homo and Hetro Marriage part of the constitution and therefore extremely difficult to ever revoke.

  25. Our Constitution is not like the US Constitution, which is a trainwreck of once good ideas. Marriage does not belong in the Constitution.

  26. Well well well, if this doesnt say it all about the ZERO-CREDIBILITY KANGAROO COURT known as TURC

    [The former judge charged with overseeing the royal commission into union corruption has been billed as guest speaker at a Liberal Party fundraiser.]

    A political star-chamber that cannot, and now will not be taken seriously by anyone, ever.

    And incidentally, what a massive blunder by the Libs.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/union-corruption-royal-commissioner-dyson-heydon-billed-as-star-of-liberal-party-fundraiser-20150812-giy1rr.html

  29. “@lucillekeen: Statement out of #turc: “The Commissioner Dyson Heydon will not be delivering the Sir Garfield Barwick address” #auspol”

  30. [A referendum would make Homo and Hetro Marriage part of the constitution and therefore extremely difficult to ever revoke.]

    Well not really, all it would do is make clear what the Parliament had the power to do. At least if the referendum was in the form that Morrison was speaking of this morning.

    In other words, successful passage of such a referendum would then require further action by the Parliament in order for marriage equality to be enacted into law.

    Given it’s already clear from a past decision of the High Court that the Commonwealth Parliament already has the power to make such laws, a referendum would only be an expensive way to waste time.

    I’d rather the Coalition just say they have no plans to legislate marriage equality in the foreseeable future and leave it at that.

  36. [“@lucillekeen: Statement out of #turc: “The Commissioner Dyson Heydon will not be delivering the Sir Garfield Barwick address” #auspol”]
    Damage control. Too late.

  38. TrueBlueArse

    [That’s why the left doesn’t want a Plebiscite, they think a vocal minority should make all the rules.]

    At the moment, that’s exactly what’s happening. The vocal minority is the Religious Right.

  40. I think I read somewhere that Perrett and Moore lost their case relating to the court fees regulations. A shame, it’ll be interesting to see the reasoning. (Note, the regulations themselves were disallowed by the Senate in any case, so the decision was really only an academic one). Personally, I think there needs to be legislative amendment to clarify further what action can be taken subsequent to a successful disallowance motion.

  41. Victoria

    The irony is that the undermining of judicial independence has been sprung at a speech meant to honour Sir Garfield Barwick.

  42. [Damage control. Too late.]

    Maybe some one will seek an injunction, in the Federal Court, restraining him from the further hearing of the TURC but I doubt it and I doubt it will succeed.

  43. “The Commissioner Dyson Heydon will not be delivering the Sir Garfield Barwick address. As early as 9.23 this morning (and prior to any media enquiry being received) he advised the organisers that “If there was any possibility that the event could be described as a Liberal Party event he will be unable to give the address, at least whilst he is in the positon of Royal Commissioner.”

    What body, exactly, did Heydon think he was addressing? The Lollipop Guild?

  46. Re. Heydon and TURC. Basic assumption underpinning the rule of law is that justice must not only be done – it must be SEEN to be done. There’s no way this kangaroo court can remain in office. It is way beyond outrageous.

  47. “@AustralianLabor: Dyson Heydon agreed to a Liberal Party fundraiser event and that has been on the record now since April this year. @BOConnorMP #auspol”

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