The BludgerTrack poll aggregates records a big lurch to Labor this week, about 1% of which is down to Roy Morgan giving the Coalition its single worst poll result since February and Newspoll-Galaxy rating it lowest out of its three surveys so far. However, a further 0.3% is down to a methodological tweak in the handling of ReachTEL’s results, which has had a short-term impact big enough to notice since there are, unusually, two results from this pollster over the past fortnight. On the seat projection, eight seats have moved to the Labor column, including two each in New South Wales and Queensland and one each in the other four states. Newspoll and Essential Research both provided new figures for the leadership ratings this week, which suggest both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are finally levelling off after headlong declines over the last few months.
Also of note:
• Andrew Hastie, a decorated army officer and Afghanistan veteran, is rated by The West Australian as the likely Liberal nominee for the Canning by-election, the date of which is yet to be determined. Fairfax lists the remaining candidates to be considered by the party’s selection committee on Saturday as Marisa Hislop, Pierrette Kelly, Ashley King, Steve Marshall, Daniel Nikolic and Lance Scott. Absent from the list is Tess Randall, an electorate officer to Julie Bishop and daughter of the late former member, contrary to media speculation. Fairfax also reports that Lisa Griffiths, a medical scientist at Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital who ran unsuccessfully in Darling Range at the 2008 state election, will be a Labor contestant along with the previously announced Matthew Keogh, president of the WA Law Society.
• I should probably start giving these their own posts, but let the record note that Morgan published its monthly SMS polling of state voting intention on Monday, which had Coalition governments leading in New South Wales (56-44) and trailing in Western Australia (51.5-48.5), Labor governments leading in Victoria (56.5-43.5), Queensland (51-49) and South Australia (51-49). In Tasmania, the primary votes were 44% Liberal, 31% Labor and 20% Greens.
don
No, I was watching an Abbott presser. Of course, Hockey may have used the same term.
Ipsos Federal Poll: TPP ALP 54 (+1) L/NP 46 (-1)
Primary ALP 36(+1) L/NP 38(-1) GRN 16(0) PUP 2(+1) OTH 9(+1)
http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/laura-tingle/coalitions-nightmare-is-that-bill-shorten-might-be-electable-20150816-gj08pj
lizzie
Really!
That Greens vote!
Is the witch dead yet (Abbott?)
MTBW
What is your problem? Who is it in the Labor Party you’re against now? I thought you admired Dreyfus, and he is very strong on this.
MTBW
Odours do not have to be proven.
They are self evident.
Have you read Heydon’s own words in his HC judgement about apparent conflict of interest. He said explicitly that mere perception of conflict is enough basis for a judge to be recuswed from a case.
Your statement that “people make errors sometimes” is ridiculous in the present context. Heydon has in fact contributed to the creation of law about perceived conflict of interest.
He is an expert in the subject matter, not just some patsy who makes an innocent mistake.
And why do you think Abbott picked him in the first place.
Ipsos is 56/44 on respondent allocated preferences.
WWP,
I’d exclude you from both the ‘lawyer’ and ‘normal people’ categories.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-leadership-faces-new-dangers-as-new-ipsos-poll-predicts-coalition-wipeout-20150816-gj01ip.html
Ipsos wow!
😀
Tony going all out on drug stuff, now spending $1 million on so called help line thing.
Preferred Lib Leader
Turnbull 41
Bishop 23
Abbott 15
Hockey 6
Just not the voting group that actually matters when it comes to the Lib leadership.
I don’t know your body of work enough to know whether I’m meant to be offended and should be pleased, or the other way around. I had meant normal ironically but lets not worry about that.
Shellbell, I can’t locate the earlier matters, will post latter if I can find them.
lizzie
I don’t have one!
No one really and you?
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/coalition-slips-further-behind-shortens-approval-rating-improves-20150816-gizznk
It’s OK. As you were. I’ve worked it out. You don’t like Shorten and the Commish got stuck into him. Therefore the Commish is a good guy.
gloryconsequence
I wonder how much of the 15% Abbott got was Labor supporters hoping to help keep Labor’s greatest asset in his job ? 😆
gc
No Morrison in prefered lib leader question?
Now where is ESJ ?
Did he just slip slip away….
gloryconsequence @2313
There must be panic in the Liberal Party with those figures
New thread.
abbott was only boasting yesterday in Adelaide about “Two years of good Government”.
I’d hate to see his version of what two years of very poor Government under him would look like.
Almost impossible to see the Govt clawing back that margin with a clearly poisonous leader in Tony Abbott.
Bill Shorten is being gifted the Lodge, just like Abbott was.
Incredible.
Tingle made me reflect more broadly on TURC.
Oh, the schadenfreude I feel over this. It was meant to me a standing judicial wedgey on the ALP. It all seemed s simple – use a standing comission to undermine your political opponents. All upside.
Now like everything Abbott touches, its totally broken, and gone. Worse yet, the ALP instead get to insert the broken shards of the wedge up Abbott’s backside.
Couldnt happen to a nicer prick.
lizzie
Really!
You can do better than that.
MTBW
Not worth arguing with you. Read the other posters and try to understand.
There was panic in the party as the word had got around
That the dolt with no regrets had gone astray.
Lizzie
I am still amused by dtt’s reflection that Abbott had a win on ME debate. Now mtbw with that doozy on the Commissh.
lizzie@2301
Sounds like they both have problems with the term. Or more likely they follow the same script. The video I watched this morning was probably from this interview:
And the preferred Labor Leader is…….
Typical Fairfax Shit Sheet
mtbw @ 2289
It is extremely hard to prove bias, as opposed to the appearance of bias. You would actually have to find a smoking gun, like an email from Heydon to the Liberal that says ‘I don’t care about the evidence. Don’t worry. I’m going to make Shorten and the unions toast’. I’d bet a million dollars that such an email does not exist.
The simple fact, though, is that this royal commission is a witch hunt against Labor supporters. The Royal Commissioner has been chosen because he is famously conservative in his mode of thinking. And now he has been shown as having so little regard for any appearance of partiality, despite knowing how important this is because he has been a judge who has written decisions on this issue.
It is an utterly tainted commission, with every aspect from the drafting of the terms of reference forward, and the failure of the commissioner to absolutely avoid even the slightest whiff of bias in the circumstances shows, at its kindest, poor judgement and a lack of competence that does not bode well for the sustainability of any finding.
She’ll bell and two bobs, Heydon is a true blue. His old man worked for Menzies.
How are you feeling TBA?