BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

A brace of weak poll results in the wake of the Bronwyn Bishop scandal have powered a sharp downturn for the Coalition on the BludgerTrack aggregate.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregates records a big lurch to Labor this week, about 1% of which is down to Roy Morgan giving the Coalition its single worst poll result since February and Newspoll-Galaxy rating it lowest out of its three surveys so far. However, a further 0.3% is down to a methodological tweak in the handling of ReachTEL’s results, which has had a short-term impact big enough to notice since there are, unusually, two results from this pollster over the past fortnight. On the seat projection, eight seats have moved to the Labor column, including two each in New South Wales and Queensland and one each in the other four states. Newspoll and Essential Research both provided new figures for the leadership ratings this week, which suggest both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are finally levelling off after headlong declines over the last few months.

Also of note:

• Andrew Hastie, a decorated army officer and Afghanistan veteran, is rated by The West Australian as the likely Liberal nominee for the Canning by-election, the date of which is yet to be determined. Fairfax lists the remaining candidates to be considered by the party’s selection committee on Saturday as Marisa Hislop, Pierrette Kelly, Ashley King, Steve Marshall, Daniel Nikolic and Lance Scott. Absent from the list is Tess Randall, an electorate officer to Julie Bishop and daughter of the late former member, contrary to media speculation. Fairfax also reports that Lisa Griffiths, a medical scientist at Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital who ran unsuccessfully in Darling Range at the 2008 state election, will be a Labor contestant along with the previously announced Matthew Keogh, president of the WA Law Society.

• I should probably start giving these their own posts, but let the record note that Morgan published its monthly SMS polling of state voting intention on Monday, which had Coalition governments leading in New South Wales (56-44) and trailing in Western Australia (51.5-48.5), Labor governments leading in Victoria (56.5-43.5), Queensland (51-49) and South Australia (51-49). In Tasmania, the primary votes were 44% Liberal, 31% Labor and 20% Greens.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,335 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. MTBW

    What is your problem? Who is it in the Labor Party you’re against now? I thought you admired Dreyfus, and he is very strong on this.

  2. MTBW

    Odours do not have to be proven.

    They are self evident.

    Have you read Heydon’s own words in his HC judgement about apparent conflict of interest. He said explicitly that mere perception of conflict is enough basis for a judge to be recuswed from a case.

    Your statement that “people make errors sometimes” is ridiculous in the present context. Heydon has in fact contributed to the creation of law about perceived conflict of interest.

    He is an expert in the subject matter, not just some patsy who makes an innocent mistake.

    And why do you think Abbott picked him in the first place.

  3. WWP,

    [And lawyers and judges of all people should be familiar with just how often one mistake, a drunken punch, dangerous driving in a moment of inattention, … on ‘little’ mistake can have life wrecking implications, the implications here aren’t even serious for him, all he needs to do is resign and refund all the public money he has received on this gig and he’ll be fine.

    Of course he has also done great damage to the High Court, probably why establishment types are circling around him.

    Just remember when you start to kill all the lawyers, please leave me out I’m with ‘normal’ people on this.]

    I’d exclude you from both the ‘lawyer’ and ‘normal people’ categories.

    [Tony Abbott’s leadership faces new dangers as Fairfax-Ipsos poll predicts Coalition wipeout
    August 16, 2015 – 6:00PM

    Malcolm Turnbull is cementing his lead over Tony Abbott as the most popular choice as Liberal leader and prime minister across all major voter groups, according to new polling which also shows the Coalition is facing a 36-seat electoral wipeout.

    Despite Mr Abbott telling party faithful on Saturday that the government had “had two great years in government”, his party would have been swept from office on the back of a devastating 7.5 per cent swing had an election been held on the weekend, the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll reveals.]

  5. [Malcolm Turnbull is cementing his lead over Tony Abbott as the most popular choice as Liberal leader and prime minister across all major voter groups]

    Just not the voting group that actually matters when it comes to the Lib leadership.

  6. [I’d exclude you from both the ‘lawyer’ and ‘normal people’ categories.]

    I don’t know your body of work enough to know whether I’m meant to be offended and should be pleased, or the other way around. I had meant normal ironically but lets not worry about that.

    Shellbell, I can’t locate the earlier matters, will post latter if I can find them.

  7. lizzie

    [What is your problem?]

    I don’t have one!

    [Who is it in the Labor Party you’re against now?]

    No one really and you?

    [Coalition slips further behind, Shorten’s approval rating improves
    by Phillip Coorey
    Aug 16 2015 at 6:00 PM Updated 5 mins ago

    The Coalition has slipped further behind Labor, Bill Shorten’s personal ratings have improved and Malcolm Turnbull has increased his lead over Tony Abbott as preferred Liberal leader, according to a new poll taken at the end of one the government’s toughest weeks.

    The latest Fairfax/Ipsos poll shows the government trailing Labor by 54 per cent to 46 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, a result, which if replicated on election day, would cost the Coalition up to 36 seats.

    As Prime Minister Tony Abbott and his Attorney-General, George Brandis, continued to squabble publicly about what to do next on gay marriage, the poll showed a record 69 per cent of voters supported legalised same-sex marriage while 25 per cent remained opposed.

    Same-sex marriage has majority support in every age group, every voter group and each income bracket, including 88 per cent support among 18-24 year olds.]

  9. It’s OK. As you were. I’ve worked it out. You don’t like Shorten and the Commish got stuck into him. Therefore the Commish is a good guy.

  10. gloryconsequence

    I wonder how much of the 15% Abbott got was Labor supporters hoping to help keep Labor’s greatest asset in his job ? 😆

  11. abbott was only boasting yesterday in Adelaide about “Two years of good Government”.

    I’d hate to see his version of what two years of very poor Government under him would look like.

  12. Almost impossible to see the Govt clawing back that margin with a clearly poisonous leader in Tony Abbott.

    Bill Shorten is being gifted the Lodge, just like Abbott was.


  13. Tingle made me reflect more broadly on TURC.

    Oh, the schadenfreude I feel over this. It was meant to me a standing judicial wedgey on the ALP. It all seemed s simple – use a standing comission to undermine your political opponents. All upside.

    Now like everything Abbott touches, its totally broken, and gone. Worse yet, the ALP instead get to insert the broken shards of the wedge up Abbott’s backside.

    Couldnt happen to a nicer prick.

  14. Lizzie

    I am still amused by dtt’s reflection that Abbott had a win on ME debate. Now mtbw with that doozy on the Commissh.

  15. lizzie@2301


    No, I was watching an Abbott presser. Of course, Hockey may have used the same term.

    Sounds like they both have problems with the term. Or more likely they follow the same script. The video I watched this morning was probably from this interview:

    [12 August 2015Transcript
    Interview with Fran Kelly, RN Breakfast


    Joe Hockey, thanks for your time.


    Good morning Fran.


    Is this just a delaying tactic?


    No, not at all. Look Fran, you’ve got to understand the history of this in the Liberal Party Room. In 2004, John Howard took it to the Liberal Party Room that it should be locked in legislation that a marriage is between a man and woman. And that follows on from various High Court decisions saying it was a matter for the Parliament to determine that. Now, when he locked in the Party Room, there wasn’t any free flowing vote discussion in the Party Room, and the policy basically locked in all Liberal MPs. Last night the Liberal Party and National Party Room, the Coalition Joint Party Room, as it was back then, 2004, again on this occasion had a fulsome discussion, very fulsome, almost everyone spoke. ]

  16. mtbw @ 2289

    [But has anything been proven?]

    It is extremely hard to prove bias, as opposed to the appearance of bias. You would actually have to find a smoking gun, like an email from Heydon to the Liberal that says ‘I don’t care about the evidence. Don’t worry. I’m going to make Shorten and the unions toast’. I’d bet a million dollars that such an email does not exist.

    The simple fact, though, is that this royal commission is a witch hunt against Labor supporters. The Royal Commissioner has been chosen because he is famously conservative in his mode of thinking. And now he has been shown as having so little regard for any appearance of partiality, despite knowing how important this is because he has been a judge who has written decisions on this issue.

    It is an utterly tainted commission, with every aspect from the drafting of the terms of reference forward, and the failure of the commissioner to absolutely avoid even the slightest whiff of bias in the circumstances shows, at its kindest, poor judgement and a lack of competence that does not bode well for the sustainability of any finding.

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