Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The third Newspoll under the auspices of Galaxy is the government’s worst poll result for a while, giving Labor a 54-46 lead after two successive results of 53-47.

The Australian reports the third Newspoll conducted under Galaxy’s auspices gives Labor a two-party lead of 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the first two polls. Both major parties are at 39% on the primary vote, which is down one in the Coalition’s case and steady in Labor’s, while the Greens are up a point to 13%. Tony Abbott is steady at 33% approval and up one on disapproval to 61%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 29% and down two to 57%. There is a 38-38 tie on preferred prime minister, after Abbott led 39-36 last time. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1727.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Later in the day than usual, but Morgan has kept true to fortnightly form with its face-to-face plus SMS series, which has the Coalition at its lowest ebb since the February leadership spill with a primary vote of 36.5%, down 2.5% on last time. Labor is up 1.5% to 37% and the Greens have gained another half a point on last fortnight’s peak to reach 15.5%. On respondent-allocated preferences, this reads as a blowout from 54-46 in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago to 57-43, although the effect on previous election preferences is more modest – from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2930.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnightly average has both major parties up a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 40%, Labor to 39% – with the Greens down one to 11%, and two-party preferred steady at 53-47. The monthly personal ratings suggest both leaders have bottomed out, with Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 53%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 29% and steady on 52%. Abbott scores better on preferred prime minister than elsewhere, coming out 36-32 ahead, compared with 37-30 a month ago. Other questions find 66% support for Bronwyn Bishop’s immediate resignation from parliament with 18% believing she should remain; 29% believing that booing of Adam Goodes was racist, compared with 45% for not racist; and 54% disapproval of a cut in Sunday penalty rates, compared with 32% approval.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,364 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 48
1 … 4 5 6 … 48

  1. [ He goes on to praise Mrs Bishop who “has been felled in most unfair circumstances”.

    Her downfall was “unfair”, Mr Pyne says. ]

    Translation : Please don’t spill the beans on all the things we cooked up while you were Speaker.

  2. lizzie

    [He goes on to praise Mrs Bishop who “has been felled in most unfair circumstances”.]

    Bronnie ‘felled’ by her own sense of grandeur, extravagance and self entitlement.

    Service to the Parliament and Australian people total bull sh#t.

  3. “@ABCNews24: Rosie Batty: There’s a lot of us hoping and expecting a lot from this Royal Commission #springst #domesticviolence #dv”

    “@ABCNews24: Rosie Batty: I think it’s no secret that our community legal services are under enormous pressure #springst #domesticviolence #dv”

    “@ABCNews24: Rosie Batty: The reality is that the community legal sector is grossly underfunded #springst #domesticviolence #dv”

  4. Surely brownie won”t stand for preselection again now that her fall from grace is cemented by the election of a new speaker?

  7. Murphy in Guardian. A modest uprising against Abbott?

    [Tony Smith is signalling more balanced times in the House. Perhaps the mere hint of a sea-change is sufficient to explain Abbott’s incredibly down beat body language in the chamber this morning – but I think not. The prime minister looked terrible. Did the prime minister look terrible because he understands a shift is underway in his day-to-day operations or did he look terrible because Smith represents a modest uprising of sorts within government ranks. Smith represents, to some degree, the power of non-Abbott forces inside the government. Abbott had no control at all over the outcome of this process for one reason: his internal authority is diminished, and Tony Smith sitting in that chair is a symbol of it.

    Bronwyn Bishop also made little effort to hide her fury about her relegation to the backbench. The Bishop visage, as I noted before, could stop a clock.]

  8. [CTar1
    Posted Monday, August 10, 2015 at 10:55 am | PERMALINK
    citizen

    Surely brownie

    Apple self correction strikes again?]

    It strikes many times with my typing and the fact that “preview” currently isn’t working for me doesn’t help.

  9. And katharine Murphy with this

    10.12am
    10:12
    Sorry you didn’t get that ministry, Tony

    Tony Smith keeps his entrance low key. From the chair, Smith thanks the chamber for the great honour of being Speaker.

    Tony Abbott welcomes Smith to the chair.

    But then, in fairly extraordinary fashion, the prime minister basically says Smith is the Speaker because Abbott didn’t give him a ministry.

    The prime minister says Smith, in a 15-year career, has met some disappointments. He’s met with triumph and disaster – that’s why colleagues got behind him in the ballot.

    Smith does pretty solid poker face and he’s called to deliver that now.

    Updated at 10.13am AEST
    Facebook Twitter Google plus

  10. citizen

    [It strikes many times with my typing and the fact that “preview” currently isn’t working for me doesn’t help.]

    I had to deal with Apple desktops at work for 4 or 5 years. They want to ‘control’.

    Put me off in a big way.

  13. ABC Q&A ‏@QandA · 6m6 minutes ago
    Media personality @Joe_Hildebrand will replace Jonathan Fine, who has withdrawn from #QandA due to illness.

  15. Re ESJ:

    Tall, and blonde aged early 60s, recently changed gender?

    I don’t reckon its her: the stuff ESJ puts up is just too low-brow and trollish.

  17. victoria

    [Abbott just cant help himself]

    He makes everything revolve around himself. Typical of a spoilt child who has grown into a self-obsessed adult.

  19. Tony Abbott clearly regards one of the most important jobs in Parliament as a consolation prize – he’s said something similar about Bronnie’s appointment in the past.

  20. Hadn’t heard this one before. Classic.

    [
    During the Whitlam years the government cut costs by getting MPs to travel economy which provoked outrage in Cabinet.

    Gough Whitlam famously rounded on his ministers: “I fly economy and I am a great man and I could fly economy for the rest of my life and I’d still be a great man.

    “But most of the people around this table are pissants, and they could fly first class for the rest of their lives and they’d still be pissants.”
    ]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/parliament-resumes-to-low-approval-ratings-after-entitlements-scandals/story-fnihsr9v-1227476487010

  21. Citizen

    [Oops, the wretched spell check got my 203 – “brownie” = “Bronnie”]

    Given the respect she has shown Australian taxpayers perhaps she should now be known as Browneye Bishop.

  23. [ 11:31am: Let the record show Mrs Bishop did not applaud – unlike every other MP in the house – when Mr Smith was elected Speaker. ]

    How unsurprisement.

    BBish bitter to the very end.

    All the better to wish Smith well.

  28. [There are other reasons why Mr Smith’s elevation is significant.

    It gives the Victorian Liberals a share of the spoils of government. Party leader Tony Abbott is from NSW; his deputy Julie Bishop is a West Australian; Senate President Stephen Parry is a Tasmanian. Mr Smith gives the Victorian Liberals — who consider themselves the grown-up branch of the party — at least one of the seats of power and influence.

    The stronger political point is that Prime Minister Abbott was openly kept out of direct involvement in the selection process, after a number of disastrous ‘captains calls’ in recent years.
    …
    At age 48 he has likely missed out on being a minister but has a good record, repeated by all sides of Parliament, for handling the sensitive matters of committee inquiries.]

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/parliament-looks-to-calmer-sittings-with-the-election-of-a-new-umpire/story-fn5tas5k-1227477185572

  29. lizzie @ 221:

    So Mrs Bishop maintained her standards right to the bitter end. She has lots of airs, but precious few graces. In fact, she’s one of the most graceless, self-centered people I’ve ever seen in public life.

    People were bending over backwards to be graceful towards her this morning, in circumstances where, had she been in their shoes, she would have been spraying venom in every direction.

    God help any prisoner who winds up sharing a cell with her.

  32. lizzie @ 229: I saw her in action plenty of times in various parliamentary committee hearings. Her rudeness was and is off the Richter scale.

  33. [228
    pedant

    lizzie @ 221:

    So Mrs Bishop maintained her standards right to the bitter end. She has lots of airs, but precious few graces. In fact, she’s one of the most graceless, self-centered people I’ve ever seen in public life.]

    She’s living up to the applicable standard…”In defeat, malice.” Few could promulgate malice with more conviction than Chopper. The best thing is, of course, her defeat has been inflicted by her own colleagues. What a joy.

  36. When Abbott insisted on making Bronnhilde the Speaker he showed his utter contempt for Parliament and its role in Australian democracy – as he had every day of the hung Parliament.

    Parliament and the Australian people won in the end. For that we should be grateful.

  37. Shellbell,

    Thanks for the kylyclarke.com.au link. I’ve lost 2 minutes of my life, never to be recovered and nothing to show for it.

    To be fair though, I think Mrs Clarke is secretly pushing for “y” to become a vowel. A sort of Pluto/planet push in reverse.

  39. Various references to Mrs Bishop as Bronhilda have caused the following variant on one of Belloc’s Cautionary Tales to go round and round in my mind.

    “Bronhilda told such dreadful lies
    It made one gasp and stretch one’s eyes.
    Her aunt, who from her earliest youth
    had kept a strict regard for truth
    attempted to believe Bronhilda.
    The effort very nearly killed her.”

  40. briefly @ 232: Mr Abbott claimed to be the intellectual love child of Mrs Bishop. No wonder he looked down today.

    I love the smell of matricide in the morning.

  41. I was amused that ‘she cut and styled her own hair’ was seen as some sort of special talent. Years ago, I used to have long hair and wore it in a French roll. Absolutely no hairdressing skills needed!

  42. Along with others here I also noticed that the ABC were ignoring Newspoll this morning.

    However, yesterday the ReachTEL got quite a lot of coverage, all of it bad for the government, even though the headline wasn’t much changed.

    Is Fairfax doing an Ipsos this week, or just the ReachTEL?

    I notice Kevin B estimates about 0.5% bias to the ALP in the Galaxy/Newspoll. Unscientifically my gut tells me the preferences would be kinder to the ALP now than at the last election, and if anything ALL the polls are overstating the LNP vote.

    53-47% would be a landslide in an actual election, but polls often go well outside that range when a government is travelling badly, which this lot are. Abbott has mainly been trying to appeal to his base, but even they seem unhappy.

  44. I like the Morgan because the face to face seems to give very reactive results, which tend to give you a good measure of the current “vibe”. I think they will have one late afternoon.

  45. [235
    TPOF

    When Abbott insisted on making Bronnhilde the Speaker he showed his utter contempt for Parliament and its role in Australian democracy – as he had every day of the hung Parliament.

    Parliament and the Australian people won in the end. For that we should be grateful.]

    I think most are feeling a lingering anger whilst also contemplating revenge.

  46. [241
    Question

    53-47% would be a landslide in an actual election, but polls often go well outside that range when a government is traveling badly, which this lot are. Abbott has mainly been trying to appeal to his base, but even they seem unhappy.]

    If I were a Lib I’d be seething. Abbott has absolutely no policies at all. He is obviously incompetent. He’s also immune to counsel. On the trends, he will lead the LNP to a richly-deserved defeat.

  47. Sir Mad Cyril

    Could we resurrect Whitlam by any chance? He had such a way with words.

    If not could we bring Keating back to the reps.

  48. [239
    pedant

    briefly @ 232: Mr Abbott claimed to be the intellectual love child of Mrs Bishop. No wonder he looked down today.

    I love the smell of matricide in the morning.]

    She will hang around, a scowling relic, a physical representation of moral decay, political disorder and ineffectual leadership. Bishop thinks of herself as an ornament. She is in fact decrepitude, a stinking albatross.

Comments Page 5 of 48
1 … 4 5 6 … 48

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *