ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

A new ReachTEL poll for the Fairfax papers is almost identical to one conducted last week for the Seven Network on voting intention, but gives Bill Shorten a greater lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister.

A ReachTEL automated phone poll in the Sunday Fairfax papers is another 53-47 result, with primary votes of 40.2% for the Coalition, 38.3% for Labor and 12.8% for the Greens. These results are all but identical to a ReachTEL poll conducted for the Seven Network a week ago, with none of the primary vote changes amounting to more than 0.4%. An all-or-nothing choice of preferred prime minister, with no uncommitted option, records a 58.5-41.5 lead for Bill Shorten over Tony Abbott, up from 55.1-44.9 in the Seven Network poll. Both leaders are found to be in third place as best leader for their party, which for Labor runs 40.1% Anthony Albanese, 34.9% Tanya Plibersek and 25.0% for Bill Shorten, and for the Liberals goes 45.4% Malcolm Turnbull, 24.4% Julie Bishop, 18.9% Tony Abbott and 11.4% Scott Morrison. All we have to go on at this point is this photo of the hard copy, so it’s not yet clear when the poll was conducted or how big the sample size was.

UPDATE: The report in The Age establishes that the poll was conducted on Thursday night from a sample of 2534. I’m anticipating another four polls over the coming days UPDATE: Sorry, make that three.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

530 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 11
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  1. Confessions

    It was an attack on the policy not even veiled. The highlight of Mr Burke has been all the LNP and media work.

  2. ModLib

    she used her parliamentary entitlement to pay for attendance at a party fundraiser.

    That’s against the rules. Abbott acknowledged this. Bishop did by apologising and stepping down.

    Burke and DiNatale equally clearly acted within the rules.

    However, to be consistent, you should be arguing that neither Burke or DiNatale should be judged until their claims have been investigated.

    Otherwise you’d be being hypocritical.

  3. Mr Burke has nothing to resign over. Only Bishop has had that. She resigned because of the public perception of her actions that allegedly breaks the rules. Mr Burke has done no such thing

  4. Claims made to travel to a Party Fundraiser are SPECIFICALLY denied within the current rules (Abbott wants to change this..)

    This is how Bronwyn Bishop BROKE the current rules..

  5. Tingle and Savva making good observations that this is quite literally a do-nothing govt. Cowed and fearful and unable to say let alone do anything about…well, anything!

  6. In my view most politicians are vastly overpaid and over-indulged with treats and allowances. We also meet the administrative and marketing expenses incurred by their parties so they can contest elections and, for those in office, provide them with offices and staff.

    What do we get from them?

    NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH GOOD POLICY!!!!

  7. [Gary
    Posted Sunday, August 9, 2015 at 9:46 am | PERMALINK
    2. Burke should resign and refund the expense claim

    Resign from what? Opposition?]

    Manager of Opposition Business, Shadow Cabinet, his seat….who knows?

    I am just enjoying watching all of you trying to polish this!

  8. So Abbott has walked away from indigenous recognition in the constitution! Another election promise broken, and absolutely no leadership being shown by the govt on this.

  9. Bronwyn Bishop didn’t even use the ludicrous excuse she was meeting “anonymous” witnesses at the helicopter fundraiser..

    It was a FUNDRAISER ..pure & simple. Bishop broke the rules and that is why she had to resign.

    Tony Burke did NOT break the rules.. neither did Di Natale ..or Pyne ..or Hockey ..or, etc..

    Sheesh!! ..it’s not rocket science!!

  10. briefly:

    I’m in favour of increasing MPs’ salaries but cutting back on some of the perks they get in office. When you can fly your family on holiday at taxpayers’ expense, the rules clearly need to change IMO.

  11. [107
    confessions

    Tingle and Savva making good observations that this is quite literally a do-nothing govt.]

    Doing nothing is the entire point of Tory Government. They contrive to look busy and do nothing. Howard was good at it. Abbott is just obviously pretending …and failing.

  12. [I am just enjoying watching all of you trying to polish this!]
    I wasn’t polishing anything. This of course is the very reason people here should give you a miss. It’s only the reaction you’re after, not the substance of an argument.

  13. markjs

    Well, ModLib has to at least make an attempt to stand up for the Liberals.

    Not that she supports the government, mind.

  14. [113
    confessions

    briefly:

    I’m in favour of increasing MPs’ salaries but cutting back on some of the perks they get in office. When you can fly your family on holiday at taxpayers’ expense, the rules clearly need to change IMO.]

    I would eliminate most of their expense claims and freeze their salaries until the fix climate change, education, science and technology policy, health policy, retirement incomes and the tax system.

    If they fail to fix climate policy within two years I’d start to cut their pay.

  15. briefly..

    ..NDIS ..NBN ..GONSKI ..WORLD CLASS STIMULUS PACKAGE ..CLEAN ENERGY LEGISLATION ..PLAIN PACKAGING ..12% SUPERANNUATION ..ETC..

    ..POOR POLICY??

  16. [I’m in favour of increasing MPs’ salaries but cutting back on some of the perks]

    I’m with you. Increase the salary by providing a travel allowance. That allowance should be adjusted for position (more for Ministers) and location (more for remoter folk and members with large electorates vs. those representing Canberra for example who might get nothing extra).

    Then you spend your own money and don’t have to apply or explain any of your expenditure. You could easily save money by just ensuring the total quantum of increased salary through this travel allowance was LESS than what is currently spent on administration and the expenditure itself.

  17. Tingle on Insiders
    Since February, Tony Abbott has been neutered. He can’t talk about anything. He has to shut everything down. The Government will say quietly “No, it’s not all shut down, what we are going to do at the election”, you are thinking “You are supposed to be running the country”. The Productivity Commission came up with this report because you asked them for it. What’s going on? He is completely boxed in. He can’t move anywhere.

  18. What a surprise! Tony Abbott has just finished City to Surf run in Sydney as pilot for a vision impaired runner.

    When asked by interviewer about having a run with Bill Shorten, he replied “Bill Shorten is not a bad runner” and then went on to be very complimentary about him as a runner.

    When Tony is cut loose from Peta Credlin and does something that he really likes to do, he turns into some sort of human being. Would make a very good Leader of the Opposition again.

  19. Mod Lib

    [ So if the review finds that Bishop did not break any rules, you will come back here and argue for either:
    1. Bronwyn Bishop to be restated as Speaker and have her expenses refunded ]

    Absolutely. If the AFP investigates and publicly finds that neither Bishop the Elder nor here office have committed any offence, I for one would welcome Abbott’s public apology to her for ever impugning her judgement, and his full reinstatement of her as his “Captain’s Pick” Speaker.

  20. Savva on Insiders
    ……..the other major problem, I think, for the government which is that they have no real agenda to prosecute at the moment which is why they keep getting buffeted by all these kind of other issues. They won’t really buy into the tax debate. They won’t buy into the Federation debate. They won’t buy into the IR debate. So that leaves them drifting. Every time a major issue comes up on the economy, it’s all too hard, it’s all shunted to one side.

    If you listen to what Lynton Crosby and Mark Textor said the other day, for a Conservative government to win, it has to own the economic space and this government too often vacates
    that space. Instead of getting out there and advocating and trying to persuade, it keeps pushing things aside. I think that is the major problem that confronts the Government.

    And their only solution is the new 3 word slogan “jobs and growth” with little to back it up.

  21. [zoomster
    …ModLib

    she used her parliamentary entitlement to pay for attendance at a party fundraiser.

    That’s against the rules. Abbott acknowledged this. Bishop did by apologising and stepping down.]

    She apologised and stepped down because she made an exorbitant expense claim, admitting it was ridiculous.

    $5000 for a chopper ride to Geelong – bad
    $12000 Business class trip to Uluru – fine, according to you I take it?

    [Burke and DiNatale equally clearly acted within the rules.

    However, to be consistent, you should be arguing that neither Burke or DiNatale should be judged until their claims have been investigated.

    Otherwise you’d be being hypocritical.]

    Haha 🙂

    I am saying that if you criticise Bishop for a $5k chopper ride you are setting yourself up to be criticised for a $12k business class jaunt to Uluru.

  22. Shorter Insiders: Tony Abbott has pissed-off everyone there is to piss-off. Now that he needs them back, the pissed-off are telling Tony to naff-off.

    This has been the formula of his life’s work: to get appointed to a responsible position and then go aggro on the existing stakeholders.

    Why the Insiders seem so surprised that this is Abbott just being Abbott is anybody’s guess.

  23. I am not, nor have ever been, in favour of flying the families of any politicians’, past or present, around on the public purse. Even ex-PM’s. The very generous pollies super entitlement so quickly reinstated by Beasley and Howard post Mark Latham is not in the public domain I am aware of and I would like to some transparency on this entitlement. And by all means increase transparency by rolling the many allowances into the salary.

  24. [zoomster
    …markjs

    Well, ModLib has to at least make an attempt to stand up for the Liberals.

    Not that she supports the government, mind.]

    I am not standing up for the Liberals, I am laughing at your hypocrisy for attacking Bishop while defending Burke.

  25. Mod Lib

    [ I am not standing up for the Liberals, I am laughing at your hypocrisy for attacking Bishop while defending Burke. ]

    What hypocrisy?

  26. ModLib

    If you want to continue to justify wrong doing, that’s your get out.

    If you can’t distinguish between breaking the rules and legitimate claims, that speaks to your moral judgement (and your willingness to defend the Abbott government regardless).

    As I’ve said before, there’s a world of difference between arguing the rules should be changed and criticising individuals for accessing their entitlements.

    DiNatale and Burke accessed their entitlements. If you think these are too generous, argue for a change in the rules.

    Bishop broke the rules. If you feel comfortable defending that, fine, but don’t come here pretending you’re some bastion of morality if you do.

  27. [Player One
    …What hypocrisy?]

    I don’t claim hypocrisy on your part.

    So far, you are the only one to admit that if the review finds that Bishop was playing within the rules, she should be re-instated as Speaker and should have her expenses refunded to her.

    I take it others here don’t think that?

  28. [Gary
    Posted Sunday, August 9, 2015 at 10:18 am | PERMALINK
    Should ALP members be claiming for travel to the Light on the Hill ALP fundraiser?

    No.]

    Great.

    [ Next.]

    So they are hypocrites, right?

  29. ModLib

    well, by your standards, I should be saying that these are allegations and let’s wait until they’re investigated before throwing stones.

  30. briefly:

    I guess if we’re introducing the ultimate performance-based measures for MPs we’d be better off reforming the electoral system, esp for the Senate!

  31. H

    Bishop is gone. She resigned for political reasons. I believe this from the fact she maintains she has done nothing wrong.

    Bishop will not return for those same political reasons. No matter what the investigations of her alleged wrongdoing finds out.

  32. [And by all means increase transparency by rolling the many allowances into the salary.]

    That would also cut down on the administrative burden of managing it all as well.

  33. “@saline: Parliamentarians who can’t work without having their children with them should get jobs as school teachers. #insiders”

    I would say this is harsh but Gina Rinehardt and company don’t give family allowance as part of their generous salary packages.

  34. [I am just enjoying watching all of you trying to polish this!]

    I’m enjoying watching intellectual leaders, masters of statistics like you confusing ‘allowed’ with ‘not allowed’. Truly hilarious stuff. But when I laugh I feel a bit like I imagine I would if I was kicking someone injured on the ground, sure they might deserve it but is it really ‘right’?

  35. Happy,

    It was the helicopter mate. There is no getting around the “atmospherics” of that. Hubris writ large, with a nice big graphic, and the punter’s hate it.

    A bit harder to get worked up about MP’s kiddies…

  36. [zoomster
    …ModLib

    If you want to continue to justify wrong doing, that’s your get out.]

    How am I justifying wrong doing?

    Please explain.

    [If you can’t distinguish between breaking the rules and legitimate claims, that speaks to your moral judgement (and your willingness to defend the Abbott government regardless).]

    Im OK with my moral judgement, thanks for asking.

    [As I’ve said before, there’s a world of difference between arguing the rules should be changed and criticising individuals for accessing their entitlements.]

    Burke criticised Bishop as an individual. Indeed, it had the flavour of a personal vendetta.

    [DiNatale and Burke accessed their entitlements. If you think these are too generous, argue for a change in the rules.]

    I have.

    [Bishop broke the rules. If you feel comfortable defending that, fine, but don’t come here pretending you’re some bastion of morality if you do.]

    Where do you get the idea I am defending Bishop? I am asking you whether you have the insight to see the hypocrisy in your positions.

    You call Di Natale smug and highlight how he had claimed economy to fly his kids to Canberra to see them. THAT you criticise. Yet, when Burke flies his kids Business class to a resort in Uluru. THAT you don’t criticise.

    Get it?

  37. [Gary
    …So they are hypocrites, right?

    No, the rules need changing.]

    Indeed they do. However, if you criticise Bishop for claiming to attend a fundraiser and then it is discovered that you claimed to attend a fundraise, you are a hypocrite.

    I get that folk here don’t get that, but its the way it is :devil:

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