BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor

This week’s two new poll results have left the Coalition in its strongest position on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate since the May 2014 budget.

This week’s Morgan and Essential Research polls have prompted a solid move to the Coalition on the weekly reading of BludgerTrack, putting the government in its strongest position since last September on voting intention. Its standing is stronger still on the seat projection, as the movement since that time has favoured it more strongly in the more important states of New South Wales and Queensland than in the marginal seat dead-zone of Victoria – potentially leaving into minority government territory, given that three of the seats credited to “others” are naturally conservative. The six-seat change on last week’s result includes two gains in New South Wales and Queensland, and one each in Victoria and Western Australia. The new leadership ratings from Essential Research cause Bill Shorten’s net approval rating to slip below Tony Abbott’s, though the trendlines for both remain sharply downwards, and Abbott hasn’t quite recovered the lead he lost last week on preferred prime minister.

Further:

• The government is preparing to reintroduce to parliament next month a bill to extend to trade union officals standards of disclosure and financial behviour that apply to company directors, which was rejected by the Senate in March. With the requisite period of three months having elapsed since, a second rejection of the bill would establish a double dissolution trigger on terms that would suit the government’s agenda of associating Labor with union corruption. The only existing double dissolution trigger currently available to the government is its bill abolishing the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, the it’s debatable as to whether that counts as it was blocked before the Senators elected in September 2013 took their seats in mid-2014.

• Labor has preselected Leisa Neaton, principal of Frenchville State School, as its candidate for the central Queensland seat of Capricornia, which Michelle Landry won for the Liberal National Party in 2013 after the retirement of Labor member Kirsten Livermore. Austin King of the Morning Bulletin reports that Neaton prevailed with 85 votes ahead of 60 for Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner and former Belyando Shire mayor who ran unsuccessfully in 2013, and 41 for Rockhampton mayor Margaret Strelow. Capricornia is featured in the Seat of the Week post directly below this one.

• The Cairns Post reports Norm Jacobson, state secretary of Together Queensland’s prison officers branch, has been preselected as Labor’s candidate for Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,108 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 63
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  2. Charlie

    [And holds Liberal Party functions in her office.]

    Consumables provided by the Dept of Parliamentary Services I’d guess.

  7. CE

    Btw it is interesting to see that NSW farmers are now supporting climate change policy. Perhaps commonsense will prevail after all

  8. [Charlie Edwards

    Posted Thursday, July 16, 2015 at 10:59 am | Permalink

    Massive environmental damage notwithstanding, what logic can there possibly be to destroying prime agricultural land & water basins that will last for centuries for short-term mining that is so destructive & is in any case yielding low financial returns for the forseeable future. Blind Freddy can see this is ridiculous by virtually every feasible metric.]

    The Liverpool Plains, despite its name, is not a flat surface. The soils are discontinuous in nature as is the bedrock.

    Nor is there some vast pool of totally connected water lying under ALL the surface of the entire Liverpool Plains.

    Some of the Liverpool Plains is goat country.

    My view is that it is likely that it is possible to design a mine which avoids destruction of prime soil and which avoids infiltration of heavy metals into the aquifers.

    Blanket condemnations of any mine on the basis that the Liverpool Plains ONLY consist of prime soils and which are ALL connected with the aquifers are a-scientific, Greens’ ideological and/or NIMBY.

    Farmers do not want an open cut coal mine near their properties for the simple reason that the mine reduces the value of their land.

    Their other concerns may, or may not, have validity.

    The Greens, as ever, are ready to do populist stuff.

    I look forward to the Greens Government closing Olympic Dam because it is an operating uranium mine!

    Not.

  11. 188
    Boerwar

    Everything you mention is correct. Nonetheless, even if every fault were rectified, Greek insolvency is an inevitable consequence of the fixed exchange rate system.

    Consider, the Grecian flaws you mention do not apply in Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Belgium, Italy, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland or Latvia. Yet economic, fiscal and financial repression are their common malaise. This is entirely due to the combination of the banking system, the mercantile system and the monetary order to which they all subscribe. The repression of their peoples – unemployment, dispossession, penury – is not merely coincidental. It is inevitable.

  14. Thanks to the Bludger who linked Jones phone call with GHunt who is amazing at never giving an inch.

    He’s well schooled in media management/fabrication and I can’t wait to see the little sod take a tumble.

  15. [167
    daretotread

    This will end badly.]

    It will likely end in total calamity. The insolvent states will all eventually have to leave the zone, resulting in the bankruptcy of European finance and depression in the creditor states.

  16. Just got to the spot where Hunt is telling Jones that before he goes Jones promised him that they would talk about Shorten’s carbon tax. Jones keeps asking about mistakes at Whitehaven so poor Greg must be getting desperate to get to the carbon tax.

  19. BH
    Capital Hill showing Hunt talking of ‘practical action’ to save endangered species.
    “The federal environment minister, Greg Hunt, launches a strategy with measurable targets, and experts discuss how to save the most at-risk species.”

    Measurable targets ROFL. Stop destroting their natural habitats, you morons.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2015/jul/16/10-australian-species-at-extreme-risk-of-extinction-can-they-be-saved

  22. victoria

    If it helps at all, I get terribly sick in cars and small aircraft but never ever on a boat.

    Take plenty of travel meds – probably doesn’t hurt to grab the medicine to combat nausea AFTER it develops, either.

  23. Simon Russell ‏@SimoRussell 4h4 hours ago

    Why @eventbrite facilitating extreme fascists by selling bus trip tickets to the United Patriots Front hate rallies?

    Boycott time, me thinks!

  26. As i said earlier, Slipper would have appreciated the same courtesy

    [Bevan Shields
    Bevan Shields – Verified account ‏@BevanShields

    BREAKING: Bronwyn Bishop to repay the chopper flight #auspol
    But still sticking to claim flight was within the rules]

  27. [Measurable targets ROFL. Stop destroting their natural habitats, you morons. ]

    Exactly, lizzie. Lots of villagers are from the Liverpool Plains area (come here to retire and be closer to the beach).

    I was talking to one in the Bakery yesterday and he said that his son whose property is close to the mining site has koalas wandering through, looking lost.

    We used to hear koalas in the trees around here when we first came but with the bigger properties being split up and new housing (removal of many trees) we no longer hear them.
    Not that I miss that bloodcurdling noise they make when looking for a mate – the first time I heard it I thought someone was being badly hurt.

  28. Christopher Pyne ‏@cpyne 6m6 minutes ago

    The Speaker, Bronwyn Bishop, is doing a superb job. She has my full support. #auspol

  29. Christopher Pyne very consise with this tweet

    [@cpyne: The Speaker, Bronwyn Bishop, is doing a superb job. She has my full support. #auspol]

  31. Victoria.
    Try this.
    http://www.buscopan.com.au/
    You can get it as a chemist brand called Stomach Ease. I also use it for my dogs, based on a country-raised vet’s advice.

    It is used to drench cattle and horses with bloat, and works brilliantly on people with stomach cramps and nausea. I think it the active ingredient was something in a traditional Aboriginal medicine plant.

  33. sprocket_
    [@cpyne: The Speaker, Bronwyn Bishop, is doing a superb job. She has my full support. #auspol]

    I think, Mr Pyne, that the good voters of Sturt may have a different view.

  35. [..Clearer version of the Speaker’s statement. Will repay..]

    And while she’s got the cheque book out, how about a pro-rata refund of the travel expenses associated with her job application.

  36. Boerwar at 208

    “My view is that it is likely that it is possible to design a mine which avoids destruction of prime soil and which avoids infiltration of heavy metals into the aquifers.”

    Are you confident that Shenhua intend to construct such a mine & can guarantee such a result?

    In light of some of the public’s not-unreasonable concerns regarding mining, it appears to be a venture whose risks may well outweigh the likely gains. The problem isn’t mining, its where certain mines are intended to be established.

  37. mikehilliard @230

    [I was waiting for the pet poodle to stick his head up.]

    He was asleep on the bed, must have only just woken up.

  39. BH

    Over twenty years ago I assisted with a survey of common birds in Victorian gardens. The number of species seen per annum in the average suburban garden was 12. As suburbia creeps across the land, numbers decline. It’s not rocket science (an expression I hate).

    The photos of koalas looking for ‘their’ tree after clearing is heartrending.

  41. [Van Badham
    Van Badham – ‏@vanbadham

    Bronwyn Bishop has agreed to pay back the $5000 for her chopper for no other reason than because she was caught out. #auspol]

  46. I haven’t had a chance to check whether someone else has covered this, but I’d like to challenge the logic of Bludger Track.

    I know this is close to heresy, but perhaps William could explain the logic of a result that is below the average of the total published polls. Now I presume that Morgan has been discounted by a percent or more (?) and Newspoll (Galaxy) and Essential are regarded as more or less accurate, but why discount a Morgan Poll that is the same as a Newspoll?

    If it’s a timing issue, Essential the next day showed 52/48.

    Have I made a mistake in presuming that Morgan is included with an adjusted result that is lower for ALP than Newspoll? If so, isn’t that illogical?

    Sorry for the confused explanation. I hope you can get the gist of what I’m saying.

  48. boerwar bullshit @208

    [My view is that it is likely that it is possible to design a mine which avoids destruction of prime soil and which avoids infiltration of heavy metals into the aquifers.]

    likely that it is possible implies we have three hurdles to overcome

    1) that it is possible
    2) that there will be an attempt at proper compliance with the engineering required
    3) that nothing goes wrong

    [Blanket condemnations of any mine on the basis that the Liverpool Plains ONLY consist of prime soils and which are ALL connected with the aquifers are a-scientific, Greens’ ideological and/or NIMBY.]

    I would be assuming all aquifers are connected until you had proof otherwise. That’s not ideology, it’s prudent risk management. It’s also prudent risk management not to sacrifice long-term advantage for short term gains- like risking a major aquifer for a mine with highly questionable viability.

    [Farmers do not want an open cut coal mine near their properties for the simple reason that the mine reduces the value of their land.]
    For some. Others experience major problems, such as contamination of groundwater.

    I once farmed a property downstream of a hard rock mine. The stream was so acidic that it was unsuitable for stock water, and fencing wire would dissolve in it in just a few weeks.

  50. [Farmers do not want an open cut coal mine near their properties for the simple reason that the mine reduces the value of their land.]

    So does the dust on their crops. Perhaps a circle of wind turbines could keep the dust away 😆

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