BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor

This week’s two new poll results have left the Coalition in its strongest position on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate since the May 2014 budget.

This week’s Morgan and Essential Research polls have prompted a solid move to the Coalition on the weekly reading of BludgerTrack, putting the government in its strongest position since last September on voting intention. Its standing is stronger still on the seat projection, as the movement since that time has favoured it more strongly in the more important states of New South Wales and Queensland than in the marginal seat dead-zone of Victoria – potentially leaving into minority government territory, given that three of the seats credited to “others” are naturally conservative. The six-seat change on last week’s result includes two gains in New South Wales and Queensland, and one each in Victoria and Western Australia. The new leadership ratings from Essential Research cause Bill Shorten’s net approval rating to slip below Tony Abbott’s, though the trendlines for both remain sharply downwards, and Abbott hasn’t quite recovered the lead he lost last week on preferred prime minister.


• The government is preparing to reintroduce to parliament next month a bill to extend to trade union officals standards of disclosure and financial behviour that apply to company directors, which was rejected by the Senate in March. With the requisite period of three months having elapsed since, a second rejection of the bill would establish a double dissolution trigger on terms that would suit the government’s agenda of associating Labor with union corruption. The only existing double dissolution trigger currently available to the government is its bill abolishing the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, the it’s debatable as to whether that counts as it was blocked before the Senators elected in September 2013 took their seats in mid-2014.

• Labor has preselected Leisa Neaton, principal of Frenchville State School, as its candidate for the central Queensland seat of Capricornia, which Michelle Landry won for the Liberal National Party in 2013 after the retirement of Labor member Kirsten Livermore. Austin King of the Morning Bulletin reports that Neaton prevailed with 85 votes ahead of 60 for Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner and former Belyando Shire mayor who ran unsuccessfully in 2013, and 41 for Rockhampton mayor Margaret Strelow. Capricornia is featured in the Seat of the Week post directly below this one.

• The Cairns Post reports Norm Jacobson, state secretary of Together Queensland’s prison officers branch, has been preselected as Labor’s candidate for Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,108 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor”

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  1. Isabel McIntosh ‏@mumdaze 4m4 minutes ago

    Water should be the primary consideration when assessing mining project. Water is economics. #qanda

    Water & Pollution actually.

  2. Mark Butler slices Alan Jones up into little pieces. Chews him up and spits him out.

    Didn’t think Mark could so calmly and articulately slay a dragon so very well.

  3. Player One@2898


    Oh dear! Using Gillard as the standard will not sit well with ‘The Cult of the Immaculate Julia’ on PB.

    Yet again, you demonstrate how mired you are in the past. Most people have moved on, but you just continue to wallow.

    So where does that leave Aristotle who wrote the post I acknowledged and you who could not resist indulging in your normal snarky behaviour?

  4. Good Morning

    I see Jay Weatherill put a spoke in the Labor Premier supports GST fanfare. He will only support a GST at all if the money raised goes to services eg Health and Education.

    No income tax cuts.

    Poor Mr Hockey can’t win a trick.

  5. There have been some good suggestions on twitter about what Labor should do when parliament resumes.

    Model helicopters. Wearing those hats with propellors. However I think the Scottish comedian showed the way with his showering Seth Blatter with money.

  6. product placement.
    on ABC24 they re livestreaming the presser with surfer who was attacked by the shark Nick Fanning and his mate. Both are wearing RedBull caps and drinking from cans of Red Bull.

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