BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor

This week’s two new poll results have left the Coalition in its strongest position on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate since the May 2014 budget.

This week’s Morgan and Essential Research polls have prompted a solid move to the Coalition on the weekly reading of BludgerTrack, putting the government in its strongest position since last September on voting intention. Its standing is stronger still on the seat projection, as the movement since that time has favoured it more strongly in the more important states of New South Wales and Queensland than in the marginal seat dead-zone of Victoria – potentially leaving into minority government territory, given that three of the seats credited to “others” are naturally conservative. The six-seat change on last week’s result includes two gains in New South Wales and Queensland, and one each in Victoria and Western Australia. The new leadership ratings from Essential Research cause Bill Shorten’s net approval rating to slip below Tony Abbott’s, though the trendlines for both remain sharply downwards, and Abbott hasn’t quite recovered the lead he lost last week on preferred prime minister.

Further:

• The government is preparing to reintroduce to parliament next month a bill to extend to trade union officals standards of disclosure and financial behviour that apply to company directors, which was rejected by the Senate in March. With the requisite period of three months having elapsed since, a second rejection of the bill would establish a double dissolution trigger on terms that would suit the government’s agenda of associating Labor with union corruption. The only existing double dissolution trigger currently available to the government is its bill abolishing the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, the it’s debatable as to whether that counts as it was blocked before the Senators elected in September 2013 took their seats in mid-2014.

• Labor has preselected Leisa Neaton, principal of Frenchville State School, as its candidate for the central Queensland seat of Capricornia, which Michelle Landry won for the Liberal National Party in 2013 after the retirement of Labor member Kirsten Livermore. Austin King of the Morning Bulletin reports that Neaton prevailed with 85 votes ahead of 60 for Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner and former Belyando Shire mayor who ran unsuccessfully in 2013, and 41 for Rockhampton mayor Margaret Strelow. Capricornia is featured in the Seat of the Week post directly below this one.

• The Cairns Post reports Norm Jacobson, state secretary of Together Queensland’s prison officers branch, has been preselected as Labor’s candidate for Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,108 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor”

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  1. @Happyness/3044

    Meanwhile your LNP clothes are still on.

    IN other news, youth unemployment is very high, the state of the economy doesn’t mean shit all, when youth unemployment is very high.

  2. You’re a fool Happiness and everyone here knows it. Ratsak and meher baba both comprehensively demolished your argument (which I note you have not addressed).

    As I said, you argue that there is a relationship between economic performance and which party is in power at the state level, therefore, using your logic, Labor can claim credit for the mining boom in the 2000’s seeing as it it was in government in every state and territory from 1996 to 2008.

    You can deny and vacillate all you want, but YOU are the one that claimed that LNP Governments preside over/coincide with/cause increased economic performance. This is demonstrably not true.

  8. [Someone here earlier said that Business doesn’t pay GST.

    This is clearly horse radish. I run my own small business and I assure you I pay a large amount of GST per year.

    Business does pay GST, especially on Services which has no offset effect from Goods purchased.]

    What a lot of crap… horseradish after the horse is finished with it.

    99% of everything a business purchases for the purposes of business is claimable for GST, or in the case of (for example) food, which NO-ONE pays GST on.

    The other 1% is not what business is salivating about, believe me. They want a free ride. They want the public to pay more tax so they don’t have to.

    The REAL solution is to increase productivity, something which does not seem to have occurred to anyone – not the politicians on the Coalition side, not the Premiers, and certainly not the MEdia who love to get all righteous and sanctionious about lazy politicians, while they wax lyrical about how Tony Abbott is a brilliant retail politician.

  9. For those interested in Hunt’s Direct Action Carbon Farming scheme here is an expert opinion on it’s costs and feasibility.

    The headline sums it up but it is worth reading all of it to find out how and why it will fail.

    [“Carbon farming initiative will fail farmers and rural communities “]

    https://theconversation.com/carbon-farming-initiative-will-fail-farmers-and-rural-communities-28276

    https://theconversation.com/carbon-farming-initiative-will-fail-farmers-and-rural-communities-28276

  10. Hey TBA looks like the boats are back!!!…another thing the libs have failed at!!!!….maybe they should have been using the chopper to patrol the coastline rather than visiting golf courses

  12. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/greece-debt-crisis-live-nobel-prize-winning-economist-paul-krugman-admits-he-overestimated-the-competence-of-the-greek-government-10401092.html

    [Paul Krugman, a Nobel Prize winning economist, issued his verdict on the way the Greek government handled the eurozone crisis and found he may have “overestimated the competence of the Greek government.”

    In an interview with CNN, Krugman said that it didn’t even occur to him that Greece would make a stand against its European lenders without having made a plan for an exit from the euro if things went wrong.

    “Amazingly, they thought they could simply demand better terms without having any backup plan. So certainly this is a shock,”

    Krugman had urged the Greek people to vote ‘no’ in the referendum. He has been an outspoken opponent of the single currency in Europe. “Greece should vote “no,” and the Greek government should be ready, if necessary, to leave the euro,” he wrote in the New York Times in June.]

  16. Bushfire Bill@3058

    Someone here earlier said that Business doesn’t pay GST.

    This is clearly horse radish. I run my own small business and I assure you I pay a large amount of GST per year.

    Business does pay GST, especially on Services which has no offset effect from Goods purchased.


    What a lot of crap… horseradish after the horse is finished with it.

    99% of everything a business purchases for the purposes of business is claimable for GST, or in the case of (for example) food, which NO-ONE pays GST on.

    The other 1% is not what business is salivating about, believe me. They want a free ride. They want the public to pay more tax so they don’t have to.

    Doesn’t take a business owner to know this. Go shop at any retailer who sells to both consumers and businesses. You will be given two prices.

  18. Love body language – Mark Butler is leaning so far away from Alan Jones he’s in danger of falling off his seat.

  19. Alan Jones just asked the TBA question “should the ALP caucus be subsidised for going to the ALP conference?”

  20. TBA

    You are thick. AND YOU DO NOT RUN A SMALL BUSINESS or if you do you use an accountant and have not a clue what you are doing.

    I run my own small business.

    It works this way.

    1. If I sell a service I charge GST to my clients. They pay me.

    2. I am expected to pass that on to the government every quarter, but it is not MY money. I simply hold it for the government

    3. If I buy something – from others- paper, plumber insurance etc then I tell the government and they give me a credit for the GST paid.

    4. When I complete my BAS I calculate the amount I held for the government and the amount of credit I am owed.

    5. I either pay the difference to the government or they give me a cheque/money deposit.

  22. if and when bronnie goes will be a good time for labor and the greens to revisit some of abbott’s refunded travel claims and farcical claims of ‘government business’ to justify LNP fund raisers.

    the other thing some ALP woman backbencher needs to do is to use the vic inquiry into domestic violence to remind people that we have a PM who got off a sexual assault charge because his rich dad got him a QC and also remind people re: his primate aggressive wall punching on either side of a woman’s head when she beat him in a student election.

  29. [Alan Jones just asked the TBA question “should the ALP caucus be subsidised for going to the ALP conference?”]

    Alan Jones thought the Prime Minister and Lord Mayor of Sydney should be dumped at sea.

  32. Happiness #3069
    A better question would be: Why should any political party’s caucus be subsidized for going to their national conferences?”

  33. Choppergate spending spree while cutting jobs, pay rates and protection for local workers.

    The Tory party way of life – Royally screwing us in every way.

  34. Nah, Brandis just used the Abbott decoy – the Pell meeting was an excuse to claim travel expenses on his Roman Holiday junket.

  35. [3078
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, July 20, 2015 at 9:58 pm | PERMALINK
    Alan Jones has a wife????
    ]

    Alan Jones has a butler.

  39. God, Alan Jones is awful. A loudmouth, offensive boor. I don’t care whether I agree with him or not. He is just a rude, crude pig.

  40. [Here is a new scandal for those bored with Choppergate.
    Brandis met secretly with Pell in Rome recently and people are not inpressed.
    Chief law officer having a meeting with a chief witness in a Royal Commission.
    Not good.]
    Don’t worry. If Pell follows any advice which Brandy may have given, Pell will be in the slammer half way through his next RC appearance. Brandy’s free advice is worth every cent.

  43. Newspoll

    53-47 2PP

    Coalition 40, Labor 39, Greens 12, Others 9

    Abbott: Satisfied 33, Dissatisfied 60
    Shorten: Satisfied 27, Dissatisfied 59

    Better PM: Abbott 39, Shorten 36

    1638 sample, July 16-19

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