This week’s Morgan and Essential Research polls have prompted a solid move to the Coalition on the weekly reading of BludgerTrack, putting the government in its strongest position since last September on voting intention. Its standing is stronger still on the seat projection, as the movement since that time has favoured it more strongly in the more important states of New South Wales and Queensland than in the marginal seat dead-zone of Victoria – potentially leaving into minority government territory, given that three of the seats credited to “others” are naturally conservative. The six-seat change on last week’s result includes two gains in New South Wales and Queensland, and one each in Victoria and Western Australia. The new leadership ratings from Essential Research cause Bill Shorten’s net approval rating to slip below Tony Abbott’s, though the trendlines for both remain sharply downwards, and Abbott hasn’t quite recovered the lead he lost last week on preferred prime minister.
Further:
• The government is preparing to reintroduce to parliament next month a bill to extend to trade union officals standards of disclosure and financial behviour that apply to company directors, which was rejected by the Senate in March. With the requisite period of three months having elapsed since, a second rejection of the bill would establish a double dissolution trigger on terms that would suit the government’s agenda of associating Labor with union corruption. The only existing double dissolution trigger currently available to the government is its bill abolishing the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, the it’s debatable as to whether that counts as it was blocked before the Senators elected in September 2013 took their seats in mid-2014.
• Labor has preselected Leisa Neaton, principal of Frenchville State School, as its candidate for the central Queensland seat of Capricornia, which Michelle Landry won for the Liberal National Party in 2013 after the retirement of Labor member Kirsten Livermore. Austin King of the Morning Bulletin reports that Neaton prevailed with 85 votes ahead of 60 for Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner and former Belyando Shire mayor who ran unsuccessfully in 2013, and 41 for Rockhampton mayor Margaret Strelow. Capricornia is featured in the Seat of the Week post directly below this one.
• The Cairns Post reports Norm Jacobson, state secretary of Together Queensland’s prison officers branch, has been preselected as Labor’s candidate for Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy.
You guys know news poll is 50 50 or is that your guess ?
Kirky, ‘ You can’t be that stupid.’ what has he ever written to make you doubt that?
TBA you dribbling cretin, how exactly can you run a small business when you have absolutely no idea how the taxation system works
TBA you dribbling cretin, how exactly can you run a small business when you have absolutely no idea how the taxation system works
Kirky has never run a business in his life.
He’s the typical leftist though here to give business advice to anyone who will listen… GST Advice even.
Would love to hear how he would offset GST Service work of let’s say… a mechanic.
And he can’t be a small business man either …
The ‘Dump Bronwyn’ petition will hit 50,000 in the next half hour.
Amazing really.
Whether or not 2968 is false or accurate, my prediction for Newspoll is 50-50. Too soon for the fall out from choppergate but will feel the impacts of Shorten’s TURC appearance. Expect to see the fall out from choppergate show up in polling from here on though.
Life is about to get very hectic for me. Great news this evening on iconic Brisbane development.
FMD
ModLib, who claims to be a “medico”, comes on here quoting correlation data which could be shot down by a Yr1 Semester 1 med student ( probly even an Arts student FFS).
She is either dumb and not a doc, or a very dumb doc who should be avoided, or she is a doc with no scruples about putting up shonky data on PB.
It’s a sad comment on Australia but my bet would be 50/50
Gorkay, it was just some peanut trying to stir.
There’s a lot of them about.
Clearly the lesson from Newspoll is that being tied down in expenses fraud actually improves the smell of this government.
50/50 Newspoll will be great news for Abbott and hopefully put the BB Great Moral Outrage for bed once and for all.
There are more serious matters to deal with like Bill Shorten wanting to reintroduce the Carbon Tax
Only the rabid right wing could try to scaremonger over Labor trying to reduce pollution while wanting to increase the Everything Tax by 50%.
Brilliant.
TBA – it’s a level playing field re: the GST.
If company A is paying it then competitor B is also paying it – it has no effect on a business’s profitability.
3009
Which one David
Casino or Redcliffe.
Not Redcliffe 🙂
[“If company A is paying it then competitor B is also paying it – it has no effect on a business’s profitability.”]
Not quite.
Australian Company A is paying the GST but Chinese Company A isn’t paying 1 red cent.
If they are going to try to gain more from the GST they can start by closing the loopholes
Labor and the Greens must go absolutely hard now the GST increase is back out of the bottle. Hockey tried to kill it off last week, now Beird and Abbott have unleashed it again. Going hard on this will kill any attempted scare campaign over carbon pricing, which will have a considerably smaller impact than a 5 percent increase in the GST.
[John Reidy
Posted Monday, July 20, 2015 at 8:03 pm | Permalink
BW @2921
FS
Mrs Bishop is getting overwhelming support amongst posters in ‘The Australian’.
They were probably all at the Lib fundraiser at Geelong.]
My view is that the rusted-ons on both sides will not change as a result of Choppergate.
If anyone else noticed anything, ChopperGate would give rise to confirmation bias that politicians are all spivs.
I am expecting movement within the MOE for Newspoll.
TBA
[There are more serious matters to deal with like Bill Shorten wanting to reintroduce the Carbon Tax]
Absolutely.
We know so-called Direct Action is a massive flop – it’s expensive and won’t work – we know that AGW won’t go away unless something real and immediate happens and I have it on good authority – oh darn it, why not do a direct quote of that credible source:
[“If you want to put a price on carbon why not do it with a simple tax?
Why not ask motorists to pay more?
Why not ask electricity consumers to pay more?”]
Makes sense to me.
[Would love to hear how he would offset GST Service work of let’s say… a mechanic.]
At 1B on my quarterly BAS like anyone else with half a clue.
3018
The new casino will be amazing. With what’s going on in West end(keeping me busy) Brisbane is going thru a major transformation.
“Bill Shorten spent $1,300 of taxpayers’ money on day of 2013 fundraiser during Labor leadership campaign”
Disgraceful, misleading headline from our ABC ..only thing they neglected to include was Shorten’s long time booking to address the MUA in his official capacity ..well within the rules for claiming travel expenses..
..and no ‘comments’ allowed..
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-20/shorten-spent-1300-taxpayers-money-on-day-of-2013-fundraiser/6634974
It would have been sad if the DB bid hadn’t won. It was by far the best option.
Wassup James J?
R U around?
my guess for Newspoll/Galaxy is for a slight drift to Labor, but within the MOE.
Is Bill paying the $1300 back?
And who is paying for Bill and friends flights and accommodations to the Labor Conference gabfest this week?
Pollie Travel Reforms now please
Beautiful stuff from Tony Burke
http://t.co/qbHiqZCrq8
Incorrect TBA – If Chinese company whoever (why chinese incidentally) has a business registered in Oz they are paying GST.
If it is offshore online purchases you are referring to that is a different story and has been that way since the introduction of the GST. Off shore purchase are less than 5% of GDP and is really only complained about by whingers like Gerry Harvey.
I like the idea of predicting within the MOE.
Can everyone just lock me in to that prediction for eternity please? That gives me about 95% chance of getting every prediction right…….
:devil:
Way too early for Newspoll to have dropped
Would have been taken as choppergate was in full flight too, so any effect should be picked up
@TBA/2992
Small business pays GST, that is true, what people are whinging about is the big business that don’t pay GST.
You are deliberately selectively what people are saying.
I have no idea about whether this article has it right. But it does make for an interesting read.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/07/benjamin-netanyahu-iran-nuclear-deal-inspection-clauses.html
You did say that, but you then claimed @ 2940:
the longer you have an LNP government the better your economy
So my accusation that you have conflated two separate things is accurate.
I provided you with data @ 2952: The unemployment rate in April 2012 was 4.9%. It is now 6%.
Additional data to support the argument that Abbott has been bad for the economy: Investment spending has declined 4.4% this year so far, while mining investment is down 9.4%. Retail spending is anaemic (up 0.3% in May, down 0.1% in April, up 0.2% in March.) At 95.1, consumer confidence is negative.
BB petition just hit 50,000
TBA’s GST stuff is his stupidest yet … 3 gold stars … unbelievable hilarious … run a business that clown couldn’t run a toaster …
@TBA/2979
Meanwhile, Unemployment is rising, and this so called “Good Goverment” is no where to be seen.
You did say that, but you then claimed @ 2940:
the longer you have an LNP government the better your economy
So my accusation that you have conflated two separate things is accurate.
I provided you with data @ 2952: The unemployment rate in April 2012 was 4.9%. It is now 6%.
Additional data to support the argument that Abbott has been bad for the economy: Investment spending has declined 4.4% this year so far, while mining investment is down 9.4%. Retail spending is anaemic (up 0.3% in May, down 0.1% in April, up 0.2% in March.) At 95.1, consumer confidence is negative.
That’s far more data than you provided.
@TBA/3019
And the Abbott gov is continuing to let Chinese companies invest and buy in Australia without fixing the tax problem.
I was watching Landline the other day where they said that a Chinese company buying up companies and Chinese are stockpiling our food/resources.
The ‘Good Goverment’ is no where to be seen, other than the extravagant expenses spending that this goverment has.
If I have one very large fear it is that Abbott & Co are walking blind into this one. More than that, they are helping propel it. No idea.
http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-growing-pull-of-isis-in-indonesia/
Anyone who thinks TBA is a small businessman has rocks in their heads. He sits at home on benefits.
Haha
Nice try Jimmy. Why don’t you show the entire post, rather than cut and paste and separate the statements like you did?
Oh, hang on, I know why you did it!
Here is the original post:
[Happiness
Posted Monday, July 20, 2015 at 7:18 pm | PERMALINK
https://www.commsec.com.au/content/dam/EN/ResearchNews/CommSecStateofStates_July2015.pdf
Order of economies (vs. who has been in govt last 4 years):
1. NSW (4 years LNP)
2. Vic (3 years LNP)
3. NT (3 years LNP)
4. WA (4 years LNP)
5. QLD (3 years LNP)
6. ACT (4 years ALP)
7. SA (4 years ALP)
8. Tas (3 years ALP)
It appears there is a very strong relationship there……the longer you have an LNP government the better your economy]
The relationship sentence is the one where I talk about length of time and economic ranking. It is an explanation of the relationship of which I refer.
Keep trying though, its very amusing.
apologies for the double post.
[Can everyone just lock me in to that prediction for eternity please? That gives me about 95% chance of getting every prediction right…….]
But you’ve just already predicted that the Tasmanian economy will overtake Victoria and Queensland within 18 months.
[TBA’s GST stuff is his stupidest yet … 3 gold stars … unbelievable hilarious … run a business that clown couldn’t run a toaster …]
Toaster? The moron would need someone to read him the instructions for a spoon.
I’ll go no change in Newspoll. TURC cancels Chopper. Am usually wrong.
Gonna say 53-47
@vanOnselenP: Newspoll tomorrow people…