BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor

This week’s two new poll results have left the Coalition in its strongest position on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate since the May 2014 budget.

This week’s Morgan and Essential Research polls have prompted a solid move to the Coalition on the weekly reading of BludgerTrack, putting the government in its strongest position since last September on voting intention. Its standing is stronger still on the seat projection, as the movement since that time has favoured it more strongly in the more important states of New South Wales and Queensland than in the marginal seat dead-zone of Victoria – potentially leaving into minority government territory, given that three of the seats credited to “others” are naturally conservative. The six-seat change on last week’s result includes two gains in New South Wales and Queensland, and one each in Victoria and Western Australia. The new leadership ratings from Essential Research cause Bill Shorten’s net approval rating to slip below Tony Abbott’s, though the trendlines for both remain sharply downwards, and Abbott hasn’t quite recovered the lead he lost last week on preferred prime minister.

Further:

• The government is preparing to reintroduce to parliament next month a bill to extend to trade union officals standards of disclosure and financial behviour that apply to company directors, which was rejected by the Senate in March. With the requisite period of three months having elapsed since, a second rejection of the bill would establish a double dissolution trigger on terms that would suit the government’s agenda of associating Labor with union corruption. The only existing double dissolution trigger currently available to the government is its bill abolishing the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, the it’s debatable as to whether that counts as it was blocked before the Senators elected in September 2013 took their seats in mid-2014.

• Labor has preselected Leisa Neaton, principal of Frenchville State School, as its candidate for the central Queensland seat of Capricornia, which Michelle Landry won for the Liberal National Party in 2013 after the retirement of Labor member Kirsten Livermore. Austin King of the Morning Bulletin reports that Neaton prevailed with 85 votes ahead of 60 for Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner and former Belyando Shire mayor who ran unsuccessfully in 2013, and 41 for Rockhampton mayor Margaret Strelow. Capricornia is featured in the Seat of the Week post directly below this one.

• The Cairns Post reports Norm Jacobson, state secretary of Together Queensland’s prison officers branch, has been preselected as Labor’s candidate for Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,108 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor”

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  1. I’m still a bit perplexed why BBishop would take a chartered flight when a car or train trip would take an hour.

    By the time she gets to Essendon Airport and get going on the flight itself, it would have taken longer than that.

  2. “Who would have thought one little poll would be so crucial next week?”

    Nobody with an understanding of Australian politics.

  3. [I’m still a bit perplexed why BBishop would take a chartered flight when a car or train trip would take an hour.
    ]

    Bronnie has already explained her reasons, she is “concerned for the nation”.

    A bit like ESJ, who showing its YoungLib black ops heritage, is up early to deface the enemies corflutes.

  4. Morning all. The answer to Raaraa’s question about Bishop is “because she can”. She has a strong sense of entitlement in and out of the speakers chair.

    It is not Bishop’s first offence at living high off the taxpayer. Her Europe trip cost $6000 a day!
    [Mrs Bishop spent more than $88,000 on a 15-day official visit to Europe while she was running for the presidency of the Geneva-based Inter-Parliamentary Union.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-15/bronwyn-bishop-spends-5000-dollars-80km-charter-flight/6622134

    People like Bishop – spending lavishly while being in a govrnment seking to cut services – should make the Liberals vulnerable. But as this poll shows, both sides are deeply unpopular at present, and Labor’s leader is no more trusted than Tony Abbott. A low point in Australian politics.

  5. Meanwhile the RBA highlights an economic management issue that we really should be tackling – negative gearing – but the Liberals, like Labor in office, prefer to avoid it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/reserve-bank-takes-aim-at-negative-gearing-20150715-gics1k.html

    So our economy stays on the slide with low quality people running the country, and those trying to replace them being little if any better. Sigh. Have a good day all.

  6. Socrates

    It is a little ironic, perhaps, that the “Union class” is seen as potentially unethical, whereas this does not transfer equally to the Liberal supporters. Bushfire Bill has a wonderful list, which I cannot recall, which described them.

  7. Poll schmoll. The most injurious thing for Labor on Monday night, a percentage drop or two is going to be a cakewalk compared to the squirrel gripping the LNP are going to cop at the hands of Alan Jones on Q&A. His vitriol is about to be given a national television platform and coupled with the fallout from Choppergate, Labor will be belting out “Happy Days Are Here Again” in no time at all.

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The RBA gives Abbott and Hockey something to think about as it takes aim at negative gearing. It also suggests the 2003 rule that allows superannuation funds to invest in property has had an efect on the demand driven housing price rises.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/reserve-bank-takes-aim-at-negative-gearing-20150715-gics1k.html
    And now it the Big Energy companies that will have to front the Senate Committee on international tax avoidance.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/energy-giants-called-to-explain-billions-in-tax-havens-20150715-gid1wj.html
    Another Coalition dead end on taxation reform.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/another-coalition-deadend-on-tax-reform-20150715-gicirg.html
    Hockey’s plan to rob the poor to feed the rich is unpicked.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2015/07/15/feeding-rich-hockeys-tax-vision-unpicked/
    The government s NOT a business!
    http://theaimn.com/a-government-is-not-a-business-repeat-a-government-is-not-a-business/
    “View from the Street” bemoans the level of intelligent political discourse we are currently seeing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-oh-good-lets-fight-over-who-likes-smart-policy-least-20150715-gid148.html
    Bronny Bishop exposed! Her unnecessary $5000 helicopter charter from Melbourne to Geelong for a Liberal Party event dwarfs Peter Slipper’s $974 transgression that he had offered to reimburse.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bronwyn-bishop-spending-more-on-overseas-travel-than-former-speakers-20150715-gid424.html
    Coalition MPs say Barnaby Joyce is damaged goods and they are concerned that he might succeed Warren Truss.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/07/15/barnaby-joyces-integrity-damaged-mps/
    More APS staff to go on strike.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/murraydarling-basin-authority-bureaucrats-to-strike-in-ongoing-pay-and-conditions-battle-20150715-gicgnl
    How the discussion on carbon emissions reduction has been debased by politics.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/carbon-tax-zombies-direct-action-emissions-trading-and-the-carbon-tax-explained-20150715-11ebgx

  9. Section 2 . . .

    And Daniel Andrews castigates Abbott over his climate change attitude.
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/15/victorian-premier-castigates-tony-abbotts-stance-on-renewable-energy
    Michelle Grattan says that Labor needs an emissions policy it can sell off the front foot.
    https://theconversation.com/labor-conference-is-shortens-next-test-on-climate-policy-44733
    This Fact Check shows that Abbott was speaking out of his quoit about other counties’ success in emissions reduction.
    https://theconversation.com/factcheck-has-australia-met-its-climate-goals-while-other-nations-make-airy-fairy-promises-44656
    How Greg Hunt could have saved the Liverpool Plains.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/coal-vs-country-hunt-could-have-canned-shenhua-to-save-the-plains,7945
    Stephen Koukoulas congratulates Abbott and Hockey for bringing up tier century – an additional $100 billion of debt.
    http://thekouk.com/blog/and-that-s-the-century-up-for-the-abbott-government.html
    The 28 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/07/15/the-thirty-eight-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-296/
    Elizabeth Farrelly writes on the smug right-wing religious politicians living in the 70s.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/logic-out-as-gay-marriage-debate-goes-back-to-the-future-20150715-gicjee.html
    This is great news. Child abuse Chief Commissioner Peter McLellan signals that churches, schools and hospitals my well become criminally liable for proven abuses.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/churches-schools-could-be-held-criminally-liable-for-abuse-report-20150715-gicsqu.html
    Tension between government and independent agencies like the ABC are long standing.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/tension-between-government-and-independent-agencies-like-the-abc-is-longstanding-20150715-gicl6e.html
    And more on the troubles with “independence”.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/the-trouble-with-independence-in-statutory-authorities-and-other-government-bodies-20150706-gi54pi

  10. Section 3 . . .

    Tennessee excels itself with an extraordinarily sexist drink-driving campaign.
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/pulled-over-drinkdriving-campaign-just-too-sexist-20150715-gidb60.html
    Ron Tandberg on how Indonesia has turned the tables on live cattle.

    Alan Moir explains what a Pyrrhic victory is.

    Andrew Dyson with the Magna Carta as Abbott sees it.

    David Pope’s view of the Pluto fly past.

    Mark Knight uses the Pluto fly past to eavesdrop on Bill Shorten.

    David Rowe goes to town on Bronny Bishops’s excesses.

    And here is yesterday’s cartoon from David Rowe that was very late to surface.

  11. Lizzie

    At no point did I say the Liberals, or the business class generally, were ethical, or indeed any better. Labor’s response to union corruption is always “the other side is worse” because deep down they know they are not good enough. The polls show they aren’t fooling anyone, despite us having a government that is both arrogant and incompetent (and yes, of course, unethical.)

  12. Alan Jones is a liar. It doesn’t matter if you agree with him, he is still lying. His method is to break down a story to a simple binary; a three word slogan if you like. Then he hammers it relentlessly making sure to repeat the lies every day. This is where Abbott got it from, they are very similar people.

    This brawl as he calls it may prove the reality of his influence. He has none. He did not influence the Qld election. He did not influence several elections in NSW when Labor won. Understand the dynamic here, he does not have to win, he just has to be seen to stand up. His victory is in noise-making and shouting. He is in radio because it is a perfect medium for a noisy failure; he is a hero when he loses.

    Now he has a repeat spot on Q&A because they have a quota to fill. Who’d a thunk it, a reverse discrimination affirmative action process to give struggling millionaires a tenfold increase in audience.

  13. Socrates

    I was not accusing you of whitewashing Libs, just a general comment. I agree that unethical behaviour should not be tolerated. It just seems to me that the conservative side makes much more fuss about Unions than vice versa.

  14. Phil Vee

    I have no idea as to the depth of influence Alan Jones has. Thank goodness we dont have to listen to him here in Melbourne. But me thinks that his objection to mining on prime agricultural land is something he feels strongly about

  15. HRH Terry Australis ‏@AustralisTerry · 13m13 minutes ago
    Canberra sources confrim Shenhua approval was the personal decision of Greg Hunt.

    [Canberra sources are confirming tonight that the Shenhua approval that has created such outrage right across the nation was the personal decision of Environment Minister Greg Hunt.

    It was not a decision by the Abbott Cabinet.

    Therefore, it is clear that Greg Hunt must now take full responsibility for this decision, since it was his decision – and his decision alone.

    While the reasons behind such a provocative and politically destructive decision are yet to be fully revealed, the damage already done to the Abbott Government is of such enormity that many suggest that Hunt should be dropped immediately from Cabinet.

    There are two very serious questions being asked behind closed doors in Canberra tonight: what was Hunt’s personal relationship with his good friend, the Energy Minister Ian MacFarlane – whose own seat of Groom just happens to take in the rich Darling Downs food bowl – and what influence – if any – did MacFarlane have on Hunt’s decision to approve the mine?

    The second question that is being raised concerns any discussions that Hunt may have previously held with MacFarlane concerning the approval process of Acland Stage Three in MacFarlane’s own rich farming electorate.]

  16. And re the mine, wake me up when someone mentions sovereign risk. All the crap we heard whenLabor was in power about that concept when it was not relevant and here is a textbook case of sovereign risk and the phrase is not mentioned.

    Labor also has to pull a Tony trick and use their biggest weakness and make it a strength. They should repeat endlessly “who got the money?” And who did the mine pay? Follow the money etc to drive home the existing perception that mine permissions are corrupt. Hit the bastards hard.

  17. Phil Vee

    So far the fibs are doing enough to damage themselves. As I stated yesterday, Alan Jones did a 30 minute rant on this mine approval. Abbott and Baird came under fire.
    What does Abbott do? He goes on Hadley straight after and sings the praises of this mine approval.

  18. lizzie

    [….the Shenhua approval that has created such outrage right across the nation was the personal decision of Environment Minister Greg Hunt.]
    What odds it only became Little Grunt’s “personal decision” made all by himself and with no Abbott in sight about 30 seconds after the merde really started to hit the fan ? 😉

  19. lizzie

    Who wrote the article re Ghunt making the decision himself? Doesnt sound right, i recall it being said last week that it was a cabinet decision

  20. poroti and victoria

    Who can tell who really made the decision? Well, it was in Hunt’s Ministry so he would presumably have been the one to look at the detail. I can’t see Abbott doing anything other than sayin yes to coal.

    The piece was in Facebook under the name Dr David Pascoe BVSc PhD OVH Repro.

  21. At the top of The Age’s front page is a big photo of Pluto with the headline “In our galaxy, far, far away”. Do they know how big our galaxy is?

  22. 31
    [poroti
    Posted Thursday, July 16, 2015 at 8:04 am | PERMALINK
    victoria

    Who wrote the article re Ghunt making the decision himself?

    Peta :lol:]

    I’ll pay that one!

  23. lizzie

    The Dr Pascoe you mention was referred to by Alan Jones in his rant yesterday. I cant imagine GHunt making this decision on his own.

    Speaking of Jones, he was going to get GHunt on his program this morning. Wonder if that happened

  24. Phil Vee, it is plain the slimy toad Alan Jones didn’t get the money. If/when he does expect to see his Damascene conversion. I just hope it is after Q&A, a program he should never be a guest on. If one wanted to listen to the craven ravings of this corrupt pontificating poltroon I believe the opportunity does exist without the need for the ABC to assist.

  25. [“As usual, a complete lie by TrueBlueSpin.

    Since the February 26, 2009 appearance he has cited, Shorten has appeared on Q&A times:

    Now, admittedly, it’d be nice if he’d go on again (as it has been almost 2 years) but the real lesson here is: if you’re going to make shit up, TBA, try to make an assertion that isn’t easily disprovable by facts.”]

    Actually I didn’t lie I was using the dates Q&A listed for Bills appearances from their own website.

    http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/txt/s2721753.htm

    Even with the dates you listed with 30 September 2013 being the last time he is on… why is Bill avoding Q&A?

  26. [Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP · 2m2 minutes ago
    On #pvonewsday we’re going to take a look at the carbon pricing debate with environment minister @GregHuntMP & Greens deputy Larissa Waters.]

  27. [Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP · 2m2 minutes ago
    On #pvonewsday we’re going to take a look at the carbon pricing debate with environment minister @GregHuntMP & Greens deputy Larissa Waters.]

    I don’t mind Larissa, I’m sure her inner loon will come to my attention sooner or later, but so far as I’ve seen her in action she is considered and intelligent.

  28. Thanks BK

    [Under the Abbott government’s policy settings, government debt has increased by a neat $100 billion to a new record high of $373 billion, and there appears to be no let up in the pace with which the government is adding to its debt obligations with a spending spree usually only seen during periods of recession.

    ..hypocrisy of Mr Abbott and his team is breathtaking.]

    Great material for Chris Bowen and Bill Shorten to highlight the Team’s economic incompetence.

  29. So Alan Jones returns from leave, goes off his rocker about Shenhua, threatening to unleash his crazy listeners on everyone, and suddenly Hunt is a lone wolf on the issue?

    Yeah right.

  30. Re the leak of the Carbon discussion paper.

    Why the hell does Shorten need to be so defensive.

    Why not chuck it back to the COALition e.g.

    — Direct Action using taxpayer dollars to fund polluters = “Tony’s Carbon Tax”

    — COALition lies about the $500 to be returned to consumers on getting rid of the tax

    — COALition destroying clean energy jobs

    — COALition pushing up power prices (renewables have demonstrably reduced power costs)

    etc

  31. [IF YOU thought Shenhua’s Watermark mine was the ultimate test of big coal’s grip on government, you would be sadly mistaken – worse is yet to come.

    Plans for massive mines that will dig into prime agricultural country across Australia are progressing, sparking strong community opposition.

    Hillside has plans for a big copper mine for the Yorke Peninsula. KEPCO, a coal mine in the Bylong Valley.

    Anglo American wants to build a mega pit at its Drayton mine on the doorstep of Thoroughbred studs in the Hunter.

    Rio Tinto wants to extend its Warkworth mine into the backstreets of Bulga village.

    And don’t forget NSW’s most recent addition – Whitehaven’s Maules Creek mine, which has been plagued by rolling protests. And the three mega-projects in Queensland’s Galilee basin.

    But the greediest grab of all is pitched by the big Australian, just 20 clicks down the road from Shenhua’s Watermark.

    BHP’s Caroona project won’t perch its coal pits in the ridges above the black soil like Shenhua.

    It wants to hollow-out the coal seams directly under the productive plains.

    Both miners plan to export about 10 million tonnes of coal a year.

    The Liverpool Plains is at risk of becoming the next Hunter Valley.

    Dairy Australia reports milk production, which is booming across the country, fell more than 30 per cent in the Hunter between 2002 and 2014.

    Experienced stock agents told The Land that cattle yardings had as much as halved in previously prosperous markets in the Hunter.

    Mining pressure along the Hunter River has seen water traded as high as $2000 a megalitre.
    IF YOU thought Shenhua’s Watermark mine was the ultimate test of big coal’s grip on government, you would be sadly mistaken – worse is yet to come.

    Plans for massive mines that will dig into prime agricultural country across Australia are progressing, sparking strong community opposition.

    Hillside has plans for a big copper mine for the Yorke Peninsula. KEPCO, a coal mine in the Bylong Valley.

    Anglo American wants to build a mega pit at its Drayton mine on the doorstep of Thoroughbred studs in the Hunter.

    Rio Tinto wants to extend its Warkworth mine into the backstreets of Bulga village.

    And don’t forget NSW’s most recent addition – Whitehaven’s Maules Creek mine, which has been plagued by rolling protests. And the three mega-projects in Queensland’s Galilee basin.

    But the greediest grab of all is pitched by the big Australian, just 20 clicks down the road from Shenhua’s Watermark.

    BHP’s Caroona project won’t perch its coal pits in the ridges above the black soil like Shenhua.

    It wants to hollow-out the coal seams directly under the productive plains.

    Both miners plan to export about 10 million tonnes of coal a year.

    The Liverpool Plains is at risk of becoming the next Hunter Valley.

    Dairy Australia reports milk production, which is booming across the country, fell more than 30 per cent in the Hunter between 2002 and 2014.

    Experienced stock agents told The Land that cattle yardings had as much as halved in previously prosperous markets in the Hunter.

    Mining pressure along the Hunter River has seen water traded as high as $2000 a megalitre.]

    http://www.theland.com.au/news/agriculture/general/opinion/plain-and-simple-agriculture-is-at-risk/2737661.aspx?src=rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

  32. Dr David Pascoe BVSc PhD OVH Repro (Qld Veterinarian) is calling for the creation of a Food Bowl whereby all prime agricultural land would be locked up as are National Parks and not to be sold to foreigners.

    Additionally only to be used for food production – no mining leases allowed.

    This appears to be a great idea.

  33. [Federal Treasury bureaucrats would be based in Perth to talk directly to local businesses and become the country’s eyes and ears in Asia under a plan to be announced by the ALP.

    Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen will today commit to setting up a Perth CBD office of Treasury with 15 staff including some recruited directly from WA.

    Mr Bowen said having Treasury officers in Perth would ensure the department’s “best and brightest” could work more closely with major firms based in WA including those in the resources and agriculture sectors.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/28819175/alp-wants-federal-treasury-in-wa/

  34. [IF YOU thought Shenhua’s Watermark mine was the ultimate test of big coal’s grip on government, you would be sadly mistaken – worse is yet to come.

    Plans for massive mines that will dig into prime agricultural country across Australia are progressing, sparking strong community opposition.]

    But for some reason Greg Hunt was acting alone in approving Shenhua.

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