BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor

This week’s two new poll results have left the Coalition in its strongest position on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate since the May 2014 budget.

This week’s Morgan and Essential Research polls have prompted a solid move to the Coalition on the weekly reading of BludgerTrack, putting the government in its strongest position since last September on voting intention. Its standing is stronger still on the seat projection, as the movement since that time has favoured it more strongly in the more important states of New South Wales and Queensland than in the marginal seat dead-zone of Victoria – potentially leaving into minority government territory, given that three of the seats credited to “others” are naturally conservative. The six-seat change on last week’s result includes two gains in New South Wales and Queensland, and one each in Victoria and Western Australia. The new leadership ratings from Essential Research cause Bill Shorten’s net approval rating to slip below Tony Abbott’s, though the trendlines for both remain sharply downwards, and Abbott hasn’t quite recovered the lead he lost last week on preferred prime minister.

Further:

• The government is preparing to reintroduce to parliament next month a bill to extend to trade union officals standards of disclosure and financial behviour that apply to company directors, which was rejected by the Senate in March. With the requisite period of three months having elapsed since, a second rejection of the bill would establish a double dissolution trigger on terms that would suit the government’s agenda of associating Labor with union corruption. The only existing double dissolution trigger currently available to the government is its bill abolishing the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, the it’s debatable as to whether that counts as it was blocked before the Senators elected in September 2013 took their seats in mid-2014.

• Labor has preselected Leisa Neaton, principal of Frenchville State School, as its candidate for the central Queensland seat of Capricornia, which Michelle Landry won for the Liberal National Party in 2013 after the retirement of Labor member Kirsten Livermore. Austin King of the Morning Bulletin reports that Neaton prevailed with 85 votes ahead of 60 for Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner and former Belyando Shire mayor who ran unsuccessfully in 2013, and 41 for Rockhampton mayor Margaret Strelow. Capricornia is featured in the Seat of the Week post directly below this one.

• The Cairns Post reports Norm Jacobson, state secretary of Together Queensland’s prison officers branch, has been preselected as Labor’s candidate for Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,108 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 63
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  1. BB @ 135

    [And those cliches are always negative. They pull everyone down to their miserable, cynical, in-bred level. No wonder the public is jack of politicians. You never see anything positive. It’s always depression piled on ennui.]

    And in the lulls between gotcha superficial politico watching, the journos fill in their time bemoaning how there is a lack of discussion of real policies and addressing the real issues and challenges this country faces.

  2. Really is this what he said?

    [Katharine Murphy
    Katharine Murphy – Verified account ‏@murpharoo

    Scott Morrison: “We’re not interested in the Coalition’s problems: We are interested in governing.”
    6:34 PM – 15 Jul 2015
    9 RETWEETS5 FAVORITES]

  4. briefly @ 145
    [The idea that taking Greece out of the Eurozone is “tough” is ridiculous. ]
    I think that, more importantly, it reveals Germany’s inability to put themselves in others’ shoes. The Eurozone is good for them, and they can’t conceive of the idea that it might not always be a benefit.

  5. Victoria @ 136

    [BCassidy opined that Labor dont like going hard on spending rorts cos they are never sure that their own side has made some errors and have had to repay monies]

    The speaker is a special case. It is one of the highest and most important offices in the land. Don’t believe me? Just go back to the ridiculously rhetorical hyperbolic speeches given by Abbott and Bishop Jr on Slipper that led to Gillard’s ‘misogyny speech’. At least Labor should. There’s a ton of rhetoric there that would blow the Libs away – and they wrote every last word of it.

  8. It’s hard to dispute any of this….

    [Syriza came to power on the back of populist promises that could not be kept, riding a wave of European sympathy in a continent tired with austerity. They were embraced by progressives around the world who chose to overlook the true nature of the new Syriza-Anel government: a coalition between an authoritarian statist left stuck in the 1980s, and a xenophobic, anti-Semitic, conspiracy-theory extremist right. In their short time in power, they have exhibited the worst clientelist behavior, punished entrepreneurship, opposed excellence in schools and universities, attempted to muzzle the press, and threatened openly all those who dared to disagree with them.

    When dealing with our European partners, they exhibited a mix of ideological blindness, lack of understanding of basic eurozone institutions, unforgivable brinkmanship and plain incompetence.]

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/11740686/Alexis-Tsipras-gambled-away-Greeces-future.-Now-he-must-make-amends.html

    Syriza’s incompetence has gifted new political energy to the right all over Europe and elsewhere.

  9. Victoria @ 157

    Indeed. I have been expecting this since the budget, but made allowances for the distraction of the Abbott Royal Commission into screwing Labor and the Unions, and Labor’s National Conference.

    But Bowen’s comments were of the FMD variety to me. Bronwyn is sitting there like a lonely shag on a rock. And the Liberal Ministers are isolating her as a proxy for belting Abbott (the way Abbott did to his Deputy when he cast David Johnston adrift). And the best we can get from his is ‘she should seriously consider paying the money back.

    The Coalition (especially the Nats) would never consider issues of stones in glass houses. It would be full on assault and brush of the ‘they are doing it too’.

    Of course, the real problem is that so many on every side find the allowances so attractive, they are less concerned about political blow-back than they are about actually losing these incredibly good earners if the public knew how much they were really being ripped off.

    And by the way Victoria, as I’ll forget to say it later, have a good cruise.

    Cheers.

  10. [154
    DisplayName

    briefly @ 145

    The idea that taking Greece out of the Eurozone is “tough” is ridiculous.

    I think that, more importantly, it reveals Germany’s inability to put themselves in others’ shoes. The Eurozone is good for them, and they can’t conceive of the idea that it might not always be a benefit.]

    In the period leading up to the adoption of the Euro, Germany took all the measures necessary for them to prosper within the system, knowing that they would soon dominate it. The Euro is a direct descendant of the 19th century system with which Germany unified and achieved supremacy. They really do understand how it works.

    A social compromise exists within Germany – a compromise between workers and the elites. But no such compromise exists between Germany and the dominions that now owe their solvency to German finance. This will end very badly. It is just inevitable.

  11. Bronwyn Bishop’s little excursion leading in the ABC local radio news. I hope she’s hounded from office like Peter Slipper was. And it’s own her own doing, she wasn’t set up and entrapped.

  12. Stuart Bocking really did a job on Hockey this morning on 2UE and went to the subject of Bishop’s spending on her $90,000 trip.

    Hockey tried to defend the indefensible but lost saying that there would be a look into the matter.

    Hockey of course didn’t talk about his accommodation in his wife’s house.

    This lot are just so up themselves it makes my stomach turn.

  16. One of the Get Shorten mob

    @jamesmassola: PM Abbott, before the election: “We will end the waste, pay back the debt..”
    Madame Speaker, post-election: #getmeahelicopter

  17. Briefly

    I think we are now mostly on the same page.

    My only comment is that I think Varoufakis probably has always also been on the same page but has been largely constrained by politics.

    Clearly he HAD been working on options for a smooth Grexit but was overruled.

    From his comments, it seems that he favoured the Euro, more because of the potential destructive politics of exit and the rise of extremists, but certainly by the end of the negotiations had come to your view point.

    It would also seem that Varoufakis was also pretty much on the same page as the IMF.

    This will end badly.

  18. So….parliament goes back on August 10th. Question would be if Bronnies Hair outright resigns before then or waits for the inevitable Suspension of Standing Orders motion? Will be an interesting procedural day if she hangs in until then.

    I’ll bet Burke is getting his references and precedents all lined up for the debate as this will turn out to be a true gift for any Manager of Opposition business. 🙂

    Will be interesting to see how the ALP play this with Abbott wanting to push his Union legislation at about the same time as the Speakers behaviour and with it ALL the Libs rorting of travel allowance (pollie pedal as well??) as a possible focus. And the press gallery? There are senior Govt scalps there for the taking or at leash bloodying if they are after juicy column inches.

  19. Thanks TPOF, Guytaur and CTar1

    You can all enjoy a break from me as well. But i do look forward coming back next Saturday and being a nuisance on the blog again. 😀

  21. Funny how it isn’t until there have been hours of criticism of Bronnie that Joe has plucked up the courage to say the expenditure matters. All those months of bad behaviour from the Speaker – silence. I suppose because she’s Tony’s pet. Libsplit! 😀

  25. lizzie

    I got some medication from the Pharmacist called travelcalm that I will take before getting on boat. That apparently helps with travel sickness

  28. victoria

    Some time ago I bought (I think they’re called) travelbands that you wear around your wrists, with a stud on an acupuncture point. No drugs. Worked for me and I get carsick in the back of a car.

  29. Tom

    as far as I can recollect, pretending there is a line between ‘the government’ and ‘MPs who happen to belong to the same party’ is quite a recent invention – by the Liberal/National parties.

    “The government” is basically shorthand for ‘the party in government”. When Labor is in government, for example, all decisions are supposed to be ratified by caucus (that is, all Labor MPs) and thus every elected member of the party ‘owns’ the decision.

    I’ve been taken aback in recent times to hear Nat and Liberal backbenchers claim “I’m not responsible for X decision, I’m not part of the government” – it’s total cr*p, but apparently they convince some people there’s a difference.

    There isn’t.

  31. [Just go back to the ridiculously rhetorical hyperbolic speeches given by Abbott and Bishop Jr on Slipper that led to Gillard’s ‘misogyny speech’.]

    Or their speeches against the initial appointment of Slipper, for that matter.

  33. victoria

    Oh, you understand then! I was lent some on a return bus trip after a rotten drive to the destination, and was stunned at the result. I even read a book on return journey, which is normally impossible.

  34. [Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane · 4m4 minutes ago

    Bernard Keane retweeted Alex McKinnon
    Unbelievable – MP @GChristensenMP is supporting hate group Reclaim Australia. ]

    We can believe anything now.

  38. The Eurozone issues aside, it is difficult to see a way forward for Greece.

    Here are the systemic issues as I see them. There may be others:

    1. The very richest are immune from ANY tax. This immunity is in the Constitution.

    2. Possibly the wealthiest corporation is the Greek Orthodox Church. It is largely immune from taxation and in fact gets hundreds of millions of euros per annum in subventions from the state for purposes such as paying monks and priests.

    3. One third of Greece workers are self-employed. Both anecdotal and systemic evidence is that these evade all or most of their tax.

    4. The Greek taxation department ‘works’ by blackmailing taxpayers.

    5. Any payments that are made in cash are essentially tax free.

    6. The seven major media organisations have temporary permits. The government of the day blackmails them with the threat of loss of permit.

    7. There is a history of political violence from both the extreme left and the extreme right. Most Golden Dawn MPs are in a legal process involving a trial for the brutal murder of an immigrant. The Bailout vote overnight was greeted with Molotov cocktails.

    8. The person who was appointed head of a tax organisation to target wealthy tax evaders by SYRIZA received death threats and threats to ‘break his legs’. He has resigned but still requires police protection.

    9. Parties of all persuasions do huge featherbedding/clientelist/patronage operations. The persons thus added to the public payroll essentially do nothing (ie they do not turn up at all) OR they invent processes requiring rubber stamps. This make work at best is useless and at worst reduces the efficiency of the national economy.

    10. Estimates are that around a quarter of the Greek economy is black.

    11. Around 5.5 million Greeks are pensions of one sort or another.

    12. Greek administrative processes involve huge losses of efficiencies and national competitiveness.

    13. SYRIZA sacked the heads of government agencies and replaced them with relatives and friends. This was not abnormal. This is SOP.

    14. A recent audience of mainly Greek people acknowledged that corruption was the norm, not the exception.

    15. Greece’s pretensions to military power have been and remain absurd. The Greek airforce, for example, would have cost more to purchase than that of Australia.

    16. Even if there were a wholesale desire to implement systemic reform in the Greek public service, the base in terms of skills and efficiency is extremely low. Weakness include basic record keeping, expenditure tracking and statistics.

    17. While most Greeks are perfectly capable of pointing to some of the above, and are willing to acknowledge the cash/black economy and corruption, almost none are willing to accept all of the points. The split is typically along what might vaguely called left/right lines.

    18. SYRIZA’s twists and turns, backflips, frontflips, upside down flips, dodging, weaving, lying, acts of bad faith, misrepresentations and so on and so forth are not abnormal. They are normal for Greek political parties.

    While Bailout Agreement No 3 might assist in sorting some of the above, it is clear that the SYRIZAN Government in practice will not lead with moral suasion on any of the above. It will regard systemic reforms as blackmail. Similarly, many Greek individuals will generally regard it as a point of honour to do ‘the Germans’ in the eye with respect to the reforms.

    The real problem with the Bailout, IMHO, is not the debt. I have believed for some time that it would be ‘solved’ by back-ending the interest payments.

    The real problem is a society that is deeply mired in a morass from which few see a way out and even fewer feel a personal or social compunction to reform the polity from top to toe.

    Currently the party in power, their clients, the pensioners, the very wealthy, the Orthodox church, the military, and the self-employed all have some skin in the game AS IT STANDs.

    That, as the old joke used to run, leaves you and me.

    And I am not all that certain about you.

  39. Bishop should have known that politicians going to political events in helicopters does not usually end well for them. Just ask Neil Kinnock!

  42. 179

    It is not new. It has been around for centuries, it just applies less to the ALP because many more of their decisions are made by the parliamentary party rather than the executive. It was a very real distinction before strong political parties.

  44. Lizzie at 124

    The farmers new position is interesting in the context of Kate Carnell also changing her position. Abbott may soon be a lone voice in the mining wilderness regarding CC.

  45. Bronny is a entitlement seeking leaner of the first order.

    She spent in six months more than what twenty pensioners get in 12 months.

  46. [Best thing is to stay in fresh air and watch horizon]

    Tried that with my son and nearly killed him. Lying down on the bed in a dark room helped.

  47. The other trick when on a ship/boat is to get yourself half way between the deck and the keel, half way between the sides and half way between the stem and the stern.

    The reason is that this magical point gets the least vertical, sidewise and gyration movements.

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