The latest fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Roy Morgan records movement to the Coalition, who are up 2.5% on the primary vote to 41.5%, with Labor down 1.5% to 34.5% and the Greens down 0.5% to 13.5%. This leaves Labor’s two-party lead at 51-49 on both previous election and respondent-allocated measures, respectively compared with 53-47 and 53.5-46.5 last time. Note that only the second of the two weekend polling periods took place after Bill Shorten’s appearances at the trade union royal commission.
Meanwhile, polls conducted for the Launceston Examiner by ReachTEL showed the Liberals holding on to leads in the northern Tasmanian marginals of Bass and Lyons, both of which were won from Labor in 2013. As Kevin Bonham interprets the apparently confusing presentation of the results from the print edition, the numbers translate into a 51-49 lead for Liberal member Andrew Nikolic in Bass, and a 53.2-47.8 lead for Eric Hutchison in Lyons, respectively indicate a 3% swing to Labor and a 2% swing to the Liberals. The polls were conducted on Thursday evening from samples of slightly below 600 apiece.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average result from Essential Research strengthens the impression of Bill Shorten taking a knock, though more from its monthly personal ratings than voting intention. The latter have Labor losing a point to the Greens, who are on 38% and 11% respectively, with the Coalition steady on 41% and two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 in favour of Labor. Shorten is down five on approval to 27% and up seven on disapproval to 52%, compared with what were already his worst ever results. Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 37% and up three on disapproval to 53%, erasing a slight improvement in last month’s result, but he now has a clear 37-30 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 38-33 last time.
There has also been a reversal in opinion as to who is likely to win the next election since the question was last asked at the height of the Coalition’s troubles in February, at which time 49% favoured Labor and 23% the Coalition. Now the Coalition holds a lead of 37% to 32%. Other questions relate to constitutional recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders (61% to 16% in favour), climate change (56% say it’s happening as a result of human activity and 31% say it’s not, respectively up two and steady since March).
Also, the Seven Network last night had results from a ReachTEL poll, which I guess formed part of the questionnaire in their last federal poll, showing 33% want an election this year, 24% want it early next year, and 43% want in on schedule in the second half of next year. That would seem to suggest a slight majority in favour of an early election.
$61 million worth of public money on mudracking for a 2% swing. Shows it’s a much more cost effective tactic than tax cuts or pork barreling.
John Hewson my favourite Liberal – went to the same Primary School, Beverly Hills North in Sydney.
Also worked in Parliament House when he was LOTO – ran his office 24/7 and walked around with a pack of staffers hanging off every word, with crazy eyes.
[Why doesn’t Abbott do the party a favor and RESIGN? ]
Why doesn’t Abbott do the world a favour and RESIGN?
[ABC News @abcnews 2m2 minutes ago
Malcolm Turnbull not consulted before decision made to boycott ABC’s @QandA #qanda
http://ab.co/1K3BDYs ]
[88
TrueBlueAussie]
This latest program will do nothing to reverse Greek insolvency. It will, in fact, simply intensify the already crushing depression in that economy. This is a deal for the dissolution of the Greek economy. No-one in Europe can now be under any illusion. The EU system generates deflation on the one hand, surplus on the other. It is a system for the extraction of savings from the periphery and their accumulation in the centre.
In the absence of any re-distributive mechanism, this can only mean perpetual deflation in some domains; perpetual depression. Germany has undoubtedly had a political win; but they have also invited withdrawal from the European order, the eventual abolition of the order that has been the very foundation of German post-war prosperity.
No-one should think of investing in Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece, Slovenia, Slovakia, Belgium, Latvia or Finland. These zones now have a sign on them that reads “To be offered by the mortgagee in possession at a date to be determined.”
Germany has just let everyone know that Europe is no longer a synonym for growth. It is an instrument for public humiliation and the imposition of poverty. This is the darkest peace-time day in European economic affairs since the collapse of Credit Anstalt in 1931.
[It might be time for Tanya Plebesek to have a go]
And half an hour later, it will be time for her to resign.
If the LNP have an ounce of cred left in them they’ll boot Abbott soon. He can’t win another election even against the drovers dog.
Good crowd
@CKCurry: Great initiative by @EastSydneyLabor bringing policy & people together @bobjcarr @Hughwhite @MThistlethwaite http://t.co/LsXFXpfUaQ
Isn’t the following a fairly big gate for Workers (“entrusted person”) at detention centres to break Abbott secrecy.
Perhaps this section carried weight in Labor’s decision to support the Act.
AUSTRALIAN BORDER FORCE ACT 2015 – SECT 48
An entrusted person may disclose protected information if:
(a) the entrusted person reasonably believes that the disclosure is necessary to prevent or lessen a serious threat to the life or health of an individual; and
(b) the disclosure is for the purposes of preventing or lessening that threat.
106
You think the anti-ALP forces will be happy with Tanya for a whole 30 minutes? You are optimistic!
6/4/2014: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/political-donations-mining-hits-back-at-labor-20150405-1372gf.html
[It is potentially one of the most costly battles the Labor Party has lost.
Labor won only 20 per cent of the $2.3 million bonanza the mining and energy sector donated to political parties in 2013-14, a sharp fall from its share of nearly 50 per cent in 2012-13.
This dramatic swing towards the Coalition cut particularly deep in a year when mining and energy donations to the major parties more than trebled, according to figures released by The Greens.
But despite the leap in mining and energy donations, the sector was only the fifth on the list of industries that gave generously to the four major parties.
Of the $4.8 million banking and finance companies declared as donations in 2013-14, nearly 75 per cent went to the Coalition.
Unions came a close second to banking and finance, putting $4.6 million behind Labor ($4.1 million) and the Greens ($490,000), according to returns filed by both parties. Construction and property companies came in third, declaring $3.2 million in political donations. Two-thirds of their money went to the Liberal Party.
The hospitality and entertainment sector came in fourth, declaring $2 million in donations.]
John Hewson and Michael Ware on Qanda both emphatically and in detail point out that the war in Iraq caused the birth of ISIS.
Both to lose citizenship tomorrow.
But you morgan makes the papers.
QandA today is such an interesting conversation.
No interruptions, no Tony Jones posturing, no Chris Pyne flaffing about, no threats, and plenty of experience and thoughtfulness.
So glad Turnbull wasn’t on it, dominating, breathing through his ears so he could keep talking. And Jones hanging off his every word.
KEEP THE BANS!
does labor do focus groups
they will know there is a quiet anger than the party would inflict bill.
Edwina StJohn
Posted Monday, July 13, 2015 at 7:24 pm | PERMALINK
Maybe a health related resignation from Shorten could be the solution. he is looking rather corpulent – it would be believable and an honourable exit from obvious failure.
The libs must be ecstatic about the royal commission – money well spent I guess they would say.
———–well spent if it gets bills off our backs. no inspiration – he was a teacher in the RC slowly
William Bowe
Posted Monday, July 13, 2015 at 9:44 pm | PERMALINK
It might be time for Tanya Plebesek to have a go
And half an hour later, it will be time for her to resign.
—————-tanya can speak, and communicate. so can albo. so can …..
So News will report this Morgan? ABC?
WB, or anyone else who feels like jumping in – newbie, so forgive me – are Morgan Poll results included in Bludgertrack? Many thanks.
———–well spent if it gets bills off our backs. no inspiration – he was a teacher in the RC slowly
Bill was just making sure the slow thinking Comiesh & side kick didn’t miss anything.
Channel nine Brisbane reported the Morgan poll at 6.00 news
So Bikie boss stuck in Malta cancelled visa under new terror laws?
Kinkajou@121
Can we trade him for Abbott?
[WB, or anyone else who feels like jumping in – newbie, so forgive me – are Morgan Poll results included in Bludgertrack?]
Yes they are – after being adjusted 1% or in the Coalition’s favour.
I am quite happy with Bill Shorten’s performance as LOTO.
BB @114
[QandA today is such an interesting conversation.
No interruptions, no Tony Jones posturing,]
You spoke too soon.
You expect “inspirational” from someone *giving evidence before a judge*?
Your Honour, the witness doesn’t have enough “cut-through”!
bemused
From the introduction on Alex Vella High Court appeal he has every chance of success, it’s ironic really that Bikies have done an awful lot to uphold freedom in the HC
psyclaw
I noted – in one of the articles linked to by someone here – that the AMA’s main concern with the Border Force legislation was nothing to do with doctors being able to speak out about abuses, but more about their right to gather data to use in articles for publication.
Interestingly, one of my health sources says that there are a number of examples of health services being delivered not with the best interests of the patients in mind but so that doctors working in the field can gather data for publication more easily.
For example, many cancer treatments could be administered closer to home, but oncologists then wouldn’t have access to as much data for use in publications. Getting all the patients to travel to a cancer centre, however, also delivers lots of lovely data to a central point.
I recall from the days when I used to watch Qanda that the shows without politicians were often the most interesting.
Yes, our Chanel 9 News had Morgan poll as second item ……. but not by name, just WTTE that Abbott has got best polling in more than a year.
sceptic@128
My proposed trade works better for me. 😛
bemused
In March this year, Mr Vella appealed to the full bench of the Federal Court to set aside the Immigration Minister’s decision.
During proceedings, Justice Robert Buchanan questioned the provisions in the Act being used by the Minister, saying he found “it curious that Parliament thinks it can exclude part of the exercise of the judicial power”.
Maybe the HC will hand Abbott’s arse to him on a platter.
Zoomster
That’s an interesting point. I didn’t peruse the Act as to the disclosure of data and the likes.
But my hunch is that Abbott wouldn’t be too worried about the scenario you referred to given that his focus is on limiting what info might get out before he can call an election.
sceptic@133
A good start, but I would sooner have the whole miserable lot of him removed from the country.
The issue around data is from Peter Young (previous Head of Psychiatry for International Health and Medical Services, the healthcare provider for detention centres).
He implemented the collection of data equivalent to the data collected in public health facilities. In public health facilities they are reported. In detention centres they are secret.
Why?
Hapless@136
Your government, not ours.
You tell us.
Pillage in Greece , only banks can write off
This is an example of the AMA’s concerns:
“The AMA said the new laws “fuelled concerns about a lack of scrutiny and accountability in the operation of immigration detention centres”.
“The standard of health care, particularly in offshore centres such as Nauru and Manus Island, is well below that we would expect on the mainland,” its national president, Professor Brian Owler, said.
“Having some sort of independent health group as there used to be, indeed, to actually oversee that and provide some sort of transparency, that gives the Australian people the reassurance that we’re actually fulfilling at least the obligations of providing good health care to people that are in detention.”
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jul/01/ama-joins-protest-against-asylum-law-that-can-jail-detention-centre-staff
Europe should have had a second division.Not too hard to organise in Soccer
[Your government, not ours.
You tell us.]
I dont support the Border Force Act.
Its like pulling teeth here to find anyone else to join me….
Happiness@141
You support the political gang who is running it. You cannot shrug off responsibility.
I dont support them, but that is not the point.
The question is whether anyone can muster the political courage to say
“jailing doctors and nurses for fighting for the best interests of children who are being abused is wrong”
Hardly anyone here can bring themselves to say that and zoomster is trying to imply the AMA only condemns the Border Force Act because it might limit their number of publications.
Bemused Comrade
You won’t get a straight answer from ModLib, so here’s the correct answer.
Because the shambolic mob that ModLib supports and constantly defends here knows that transparency in the implementation of many of their policies would allow even the dumbest of voters to realise what an incompetent and unprincipled mob they are.
Feel free to redirect any more of your questions to ModLib my way and I’ll answer on her behalf sans shiftin n shakin.
bemused:
BTW: I think you got away with not saying whether you are for or against the legislation. Well done. I reckon nobody else noticed……
😉
psyclaw:
Do you support the Border Force Act?
Of course you support them Mod. We judge by your actions ie invariably defending them, rather than your pleadings of innocence.
Happiness@143
So you don’t support the Liberal (sic) Party?
That is very much the point. If you support that proto-fascist gang, then you wear responsibility for their policies.
I am taking less and less notice of zoomster.
Can anyone explain the difference between the point made by Malcolm Turnbull on 7.30 tonight and what Zaky Mallah said on Q&A?
Turnbull talked about not giving Daesh more ammunition for recruitment, and said “We have to make sure that our messages are not inadvertently re-inforcing theirs”.
Way more eloquent and polished than Mallah, but fundamentally the same point isn’t it?
Possum @Pollytics 3m3 minutes ago
The European experiment huh – the same historical, toxic European power culture hiding behind a veneer of social democracy and solidarity