Morgan: 51-49 to Labor

New polls record solid movement to the Coalition nationally, and encouraging findings for the Liberals in two of their Tasmanian seats.

The latest fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Roy Morgan records movement to the Coalition, who are up 2.5% on the primary vote to 41.5%, with Labor down 1.5% to 34.5% and the Greens down 0.5% to 13.5%. This leaves Labor’s two-party lead at 51-49 on both previous election and respondent-allocated measures, respectively compared with 53-47 and 53.5-46.5 last time. Note that only the second of the two weekend polling periods took place after Bill Shorten’s appearances at the trade union royal commission.

Meanwhile, polls conducted for the Launceston Examiner by ReachTEL showed the Liberals holding on to leads in the northern Tasmanian marginals of Bass and Lyons, both of which were won from Labor in 2013. As Kevin Bonham interprets the apparently confusing presentation of the results from the print edition, the numbers translate into a 51-49 lead for Liberal member Andrew Nikolic in Bass, and a 53.2-47.8 lead for Eric Hutchison in Lyons, respectively indicate a 3% swing to Labor and a 2% swing to the Liberals. The polls were conducted on Thursday evening from samples of slightly below 600 apiece.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average result from Essential Research strengthens the impression of Bill Shorten taking a knock, though more from its monthly personal ratings than voting intention. The latter have Labor losing a point to the Greens, who are on 38% and 11% respectively, with the Coalition steady on 41% and two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 in favour of Labor. Shorten is down five on approval to 27% and up seven on disapproval to 52%, compared with what were already his worst ever results. Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 37% and up three on disapproval to 53%, erasing a slight improvement in last month’s result, but he now has a clear 37-30 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 38-33 last time.

There has also been a reversal in opinion as to who is likely to win the next election since the question was last asked at the height of the Coalition’s troubles in February, at which time 49% favoured Labor and 23% the Coalition. Now the Coalition holds a lead of 37% to 32%. Other questions relate to constitutional recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders (61% to 16% in favour), climate change (56% say it’s happening as a result of human activity and 31% say it’s not, respectively up two and steady since March).

Also, the Seven Network last night had results from a ReachTEL poll, which I guess formed part of the questionnaire in their last federal poll, showing 33% want an election this year, 24% want it early next year, and 43% want in on schedule in the second half of next year. That would seem to suggest a slight majority in favour of an early election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,317 comments on “Morgan: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Godwin’s Law has been updated anyone quoting NewsLtd media automatically loses the argument..

    True story..

  2. Things are a little tighter for Labour, but how significant this is has yet to be sorted out.

    When Morgan was 54-46 or whatever, it was ignored by most.

    Parliament in recess and Bill up before the beaks have some impact one supposes.

    NSW seems to be doing will for the Coalition.

  3. Geez William you’re not usually so quick off the mark publishing Morgan when ALP doing well..

    ..Crikey not biased, I hope 😀

  4. [
    Now that Morgan and Newspoll’s fortnightly cycles are no longer in alignment, I expect that Monday afternoon Morgan posts will become kind of a thing.]

    Given their start hopefully a reAlly bouncy funny thing to liven up dull Monday’s

  5. I’m hanging out for Andrew Bolt to start citing the Morgan numbers as proof of an LNP renaissance the way he did with Fairfax’s IPSOS numbers back in May when he dubbed it “Abbott’s stunning recovery” only to turn around a month later and bag them as having been “plainly unbelievable”. He vacillates more than a metronome.

  6. Grrr….

    [As heavy rain continues to fall in the Solomon Islands following Tropical Cyclone Raquel last week, fears the Gold Ridge mine’s toxic tailings dam will overflow are starting to intensify.

    The local government declared the area a disaster zone, but experts fear hardly enough precautions are being taken to prevent looming disaster to surrounding communities.

    The Gold Ridge tailings dam contains millions of tonnes of hazardous chemicals like cyanide and arsenic, and was purportedly not designed to accommodate overstrain.]

    [If the future of democracy depends upon the majority of voters actually wanting to contest the great divide, an entirely different approach to public communication and public persuasion is called for. The strangest paradox in responses to the Greek bailout in the blogosphere is the readiness to condemn the crimes of big government and national profligacy, set against a lack of apparent concern for analogous behaviour among the banks and financial institutions requiring the same level of bailout.

    The parallels between the charges laid against the Greece and those leveled against the German banks are striking: mismanagement, corruption, cronyism, fraudulently concealing their real financial status, and dangerously overextending their commitments. In a New York Times article published in August 2013, Jack Ewing speculated as to why there was so little appetite in Germany for changing the banking system. The German bank bailout following the GFC was one of the biggest in Europe, amounting to over €640 billion, and five years on it remained “a dead weight on the Eurozone economy.” Ewing quotes Jörg Rocholl, president of the European School of Management and Technology in Berlin, who finds debate on this problem “alarmingly non intense.”

    Why is it that the average citizen is so readily angered by stories of Greek hairdressers retiring at fifty on public pensions, while there is barely a shrug of the shoulders at the thought of German bankers being chauffeur-driven around town when they have yet to repay massive loans from the public purse? Why are Greeks who have defaulted on their taxes so much more infuriating than financiers who have always avoided them? Ordinary people who have been plunged into the direst financial states are regarded as deserving of whatever further privations are coming (and they are surely coming), while most corporate defaulters are not suffering at all.

    Before we can get any traction for the logics of a democratic economy, we have to address the bizarre asymmetries in public opinion. As the Greek debt crisis rolls on, it seems increasingly clear that the Europe Union would rather see a nation broken than a sophisticated banking system forced to reassess its modes of operation. Austerity by public demand is phenomenon of our times. Perhaps those who are its advocates fail to see how easily they, too, could come under its reign.]

  8. shea mcduff

    [ Well that sorta suggests fairly strongly that TURC is worth about 2-3% to the COALition. ]

    I think “WAS worth” is a better description. Now that TURC has been shown to be a moist crustacean – yes, Boerwar – I know this is wrong 🙂 – the figures will drift back to the ALP.

  9. P1
    What do you think Essential will be tomorrow?

    {And yes I know guessing on one poll on a cycle of a day or 2 is shaky.]

    Cos I sorta agree with you about the word ‘was’ and also cos of the stupid anti-solar announcement and assuming that fits into ER’s time frame I’ll go for :

    ALP 52
    COALition 48

  10. After watching today’s presser in Adelaide, I would advise Shorten to allow his Shadow Ministers to respond on their ‘special subjects’ as much as possible. Gives the impression of a strong and experienced team.

  11. Yanis has torched Phillip Adam’s “Exclusive”

    [But Varoufakis seemed unconcerned. Throughout our conversation he never raised his voice. He came across as imperturbably calm, and often chuckled. His conservation wasn’t tinged with regret; he appears to be treating the loss of power as ambivalently as he treated its acquisition.

    Now he will return to a half-finished book on the crisis, mull the new offers publishers have already begun to send him, and likely return to the University of Athens after two years teaching in Texas.

    By resigning and not signing a deal he abhorred, he has kept both his conscience free and his reputation intact. His country remains locked in a trap he spent years opposing and months fighting, but he has escaped.]

  12. If Morgan is 51-49 it’s probably worse for Labor.

    It’s game over comrades – start planning the next labor leadership election. Once you’ve lost Laurie Oakes you’ve lost the country.

  13. Could this be the effect of everyone freezing their tits off while Labor campaigns for Carbon Tax Mark 2.0?

  14. Dee
    We had shares in Gold Ridge some years ago.

    The mine was the largest single contributor to the Solomon Government’s Budget.

    A group of 30 or so people armed with guns blocked the access road.

    The mine was shut.

    The owners of the time collected their insurance.

    We collected the payout.

    The mine was sold.

    Subsequently another owner tried to re-open the mine.

    Basically this was ‘blocked’ by the locals.

    The last owner sold the mine (large gold resource and liabilities – including environmental liabilities) for nothing.

    This was at a loss.

    The locals have subsequently tried to sell a part interest in the mine.

    But the capital risks arising from chronic local lawlessness are too high.

    The locals, having ‘recaptured’ the mine lack the capacity to either make a buck out of it by mining the gold, or to provide appropriate environmental protection that they have taken on.

    It is a mess.

  15. Someone on ABC news called Mellissa Clarke claims to be a political correspondent, but it appears that she is merely a propagandist for the Libs. Surprise, surprise, the renewable energy debacle is actually a positive for Abbott.

    Maybe she is Simkin’s girlfriend.

  16. Maybe a health related resignation from Shorten could be the solution. he is looking rather corpulent – it would be believable and an honourable exit from obvious failure.

    The libs must be ecstatic about the royal commission – money well spent I guess they would say.

  17. Skiting after just one poll? Morgan had the polls at 49-51 no more than two months ago in what was supposed to be the government enjoying a post-budget after glow. How long did that last? Exactly two polls after which it was back out to 46-54 again for seemingly no other apparent reason other than an outwardly reawakening by the public from their early-onset winter brain freeze. Once the fog of TURC clears and the smog from the Coalitions cuts to renewables sets in, it’ll be game on again.

  18. lizzie

    Must admit I didn’t watch the whole thing as it’s not worth the affect on my blood pressure or others.

    Looking forward to Leigh Sales doing her homework and putting pressure on Turnbull.

  19. Leading businessman Tony Shepherd has strongly defended Bill Shorten, saying a deal he negotiated in 2005 to build the $2.5 billion EastLink road project in Melbourne delivered workers one of the highest rates of pay for any urban construction project and finished the project ahead of schedule.

    “It was one of the best projects I have even been involved in,” he said.

    Mr Shepherd spoke exclusively on Thursday after reading reports Mr Shorten supposedly sold out workers in a deal with joint venture builder Thiess John Holland when he was running the Australian Workers’ Union.

    Mr Shepherd, a former Business Council of Australia president and chairman of the Abbott government’s audit commission, was at the time the chairman of Connect East which subcontracted Thiess John Holland.

  20. Temporary Kangaroo court related blip. Abbott’s too much of train wreck of a PM to capitalise on Shorten’s bad week for long.

    It does show the ALP needs to get on the front foot though…. release some new policy, attack the government on one of its 846 weak suits. Dont just sit around getting attacked.

  21. Emma Alberici
    Emma Alberici – Verified account ‏@albericie

    #thisisacoup says @PaulKrugmanBlog on the #agreekment More on @lateline with Josef Janning @JJ52
    2:30 AM – 13 Jul 2015

  22. Today’s Mumble.

    [The Abbott government has lagged in national support for the last 18 months, and currently sits on about 47 per cent after preferences. Give or take a per cent or so, that’s what the pollsters are mostly saying. Week in, week out.

    Then there are surveys of particular geographic areas or sections of society. That 47 per cent represents a 6.5 per cent swing from the last election, and so everything else being equal you might expect a polled portion to reveal about the same. But if it does, it’s not reported as business as usual, instead it’s: wham, the Coalition is getting murdered in such-and-such age group or region by a massive 6 or 7 per cent swing.

    The latest Newspoll quarterly, published a fortnight ago, put the national outcome at (drumroll) 53 to 47 in the opposition’s favour. Swing-wise the biggest contributing states were the ones the ALP did particularly poorly in 2013, Queensland and WA. The smallest movers were NSW and South Australia.]

    Goes on to talk about Sth Aust and Pyne’s seat in particular. In short: the prospect of a SenX party running lower house candidates would be worrisome for the Liberals, esp Pyne, but he does have a reasonable margin.

  23. [Daniel Hurst
    Daniel Hurst – Verified account ‏@danielhurstbne

    Turnbull says he’s told #qanda ratings have increased since the PM’s ban on frontbenchers; “maybe they’ll never ask us back”

  24. The terms imposed on Greece are profoundly foolish. If I were a Greek MP I would be obliged to vote against this. Germany, seemingly, has forgotten everything. Syriza have brought fresh disaster to Greece and, no doubt, renewed hardship for the rest of Europe.

    [American economist Paul Krugman lent his support to the hashtag in a New York Times op-ed published on Sunday evening:

    Quote Suppose you consider Tsipras an incompetent twerp. Suppose you dearly want to see Syriza out of power. Suppose, even, that you welcome the prospect of pushing those annoying Greeks out of the euro. Even if all of that is true, this Eurogroup list of demands is madness. The trending hashtag ThisIsACoup is exactly right. This goes beyond harsh into pure vindictiveness, complete destruction of national sovereignty, and no hope of relief. It is, presumably, meant to be an offer Greece can’t accept; but even so, it’s a grotesque betrayal of everything the European project was supposed to stand for.]

  25. Also, why allow chinese workers via ChinaFTA, when there is people already in Australia (Disability Pension, Age Pensioners, or Unemployed) or Refugees that need jobs?

    With the Media spruking for heavier ‘crackdown’ on bludgers on Disability Pension.

  26. briefly

    Driving back home today I heard something on RN about the conditions previously (currently ?) demanded that sounded mind boggling. Something about Greek public assets being put into a fund in Luxemburg. Do you know anything about this or did I miss hear it ? Ta.

  27. Leigh Sales had a friendly fireside chat with Malcolm

    Malcolm true to form subtly bagged the Lying Friar on obsession with Q&A and hyperbole over Death Cult.

    Sales smiled, and offered him a cup of tea.

  28. [Turnbull says he’s told #qanda ratings have increased since the PM’s ban on frontbenchers; “maybe they’ll never ask us back”]

    How unsurprisement.

  29. [38


    Driving back home today I heard something on RN about the conditions previously (currently ?) demanded that sounded mind boggling. Something about Greek public assets being put into a fund in Luxemburg. Do you know anything about this or did I miss hear it ? Ta.]

    Yes, EU50 bill in State assets are to be transferred to trust and offered for sale, the proceeds to be used to pay for the advances. Debt is being turned into equity. Greece has been forced to cede its sovereignty to the EU.

  30. i was thinking about TURC and votes today and anyone who changed their votes to Liberal from Labor because of TURC should be taken outside and shot through the heart, because shooting through the head isn’t going to be effective.

  31. The Greeks have put 50 billion of assets into a fund that will be either sold or operated by outsiders to repay their debt. They have agreed to implement austerity that they said they wouldn’t. I would liken it to absailing over the cliff with your adversary holding a knife to the rope. No alternative but to ask to be hauled back up.

  32. abc730
    abc730 – Verified account ‏@abc730

    Farmers threathen “civil disobedience if we don’t get the right answer” over #Shenhua coal mine

  33. briefly

    Thanks. Nothing like a bit of asset stripping for the banksters.

    Something else I couldn’t believe was the demand to ramp up taxes on the shipping industry. It represents a significant part of the economy and they are the world’s biggest merchant fleet. They’d be outta there in moments should they suddenly get whacked.

  34. vic

    Combet wasn’t well.

    [Labor’s second term in government was difficult not only for me politically but also personally. I had a couple of medical conditions that deteriorated during this period. One day before the 2010 election, I was in parliament experiencing a terrible pain in my leg. I went to see Mal Washer, the Liberal MP and doctor, who arranged for me to be taken to hospital in a wheelchair. As I was waiting atthe lift, the doors opened and there was my sparring partner Sophie Mirabella. ‘You’ll do anything to get media,’ she huffed. It turnedout to be a vascular condition and I had surgery, but this did little to alleviate the awful aching in the lower leg, which could only be relieved by stretching the limb out.]

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