Morgan: 51-49 to Labor

New polls record solid movement to the Coalition nationally, and encouraging findings for the Liberals in two of their Tasmanian seats.

The latest fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Roy Morgan records movement to the Coalition, who are up 2.5% on the primary vote to 41.5%, with Labor down 1.5% to 34.5% and the Greens down 0.5% to 13.5%. This leaves Labor’s two-party lead at 51-49 on both previous election and respondent-allocated measures, respectively compared with 53-47 and 53.5-46.5 last time. Note that only the second of the two weekend polling periods took place after Bill Shorten’s appearances at the trade union royal commission.

Meanwhile, polls conducted for the Launceston Examiner by ReachTEL showed the Liberals holding on to leads in the northern Tasmanian marginals of Bass and Lyons, both of which were won from Labor in 2013. As Kevin Bonham interprets the apparently confusing presentation of the results from the print edition, the numbers translate into a 51-49 lead for Liberal member Andrew Nikolic in Bass, and a 53.2-47.8 lead for Eric Hutchison in Lyons, respectively indicate a 3% swing to Labor and a 2% swing to the Liberals. The polls were conducted on Thursday evening from samples of slightly below 600 apiece.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average result from Essential Research strengthens the impression of Bill Shorten taking a knock, though more from its monthly personal ratings than voting intention. The latter have Labor losing a point to the Greens, who are on 38% and 11% respectively, with the Coalition steady on 41% and two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 in favour of Labor. Shorten is down five on approval to 27% and up seven on disapproval to 52%, compared with what were already his worst ever results. Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 37% and up three on disapproval to 53%, erasing a slight improvement in last month’s result, but he now has a clear 37-30 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 38-33 last time.

There has also been a reversal in opinion as to who is likely to win the next election since the question was last asked at the height of the Coalition’s troubles in February, at which time 49% favoured Labor and 23% the Coalition. Now the Coalition holds a lead of 37% to 32%. Other questions relate to constitutional recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders (61% to 16% in favour), climate change (56% say it’s happening as a result of human activity and 31% say it’s not, respectively up two and steady since March).

Also, the Seven Network last night had results from a ReachTEL poll, which I guess formed part of the questionnaire in their last federal poll, showing 33% want an election this year, 24% want it early next year, and 43% want in on schedule in the second half of next year. That would seem to suggest a slight majority in favour of an early election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,317 comments on “Morgan: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Well, you’d have thought the presence of the Leader of the Federal Opposition in your neck of the woods would make the evening news, I can remember a time when that would most certainly have been the case. Not so for ABC Adelaide I’m afraid, no mention of Shorten’s visit at all. But we got the previously mentioned turgid waffle from Melissa Clarke.
    Getting in some serious grovelling.

  2. The Big Pretender getting some press

    [“So we have to be careful that we don’t end up amplifying what they’re doing by the way we talk about them. So I think we need to be very objective and very measured and very balanced.”

    Mr Turnbull’s comments are likely to reignite the ruckus he created last week when, in a speech to the Sydney Institute, he took what was widely regarded as a swing at Tony Abbott’s alarmist rhetoric regarding the domestic threat posed by Islamic State.

    Mr Turnbull said Australia faced “far greater threats” than IS and cautioned against over-estimating or under-estimating the threat and said critics of the government’s new national security measures should ot be denounced.

    Also on the 7.30 Report, Mr Turnbull lamented the “pugilistic nature” of today’s political debate, contrasting it with the style of Liberal Party funder Robert Menzies.]

    http://www.afr.com/news/politics/malcolm-turnbull-says-overblown-terror-language-a-recruitment-tool-20150713-gibci8?stb=twt

  3. mikehilliard

    Before he mentioned his ill health I was worried by his development of frequent coughs/clearing of throat. Thought it might be smoking type cancer related but from that it looks like the symptoms of his medication. Opiates would do it. A real shame. Hope he becomes an “Elder Statesman” of the party that they listen to.

  4. vic

    [Yes i do recall Combet being unwell]

    I knew you would. I posted the link up just to remind everyone what piece of work the Puff Adder was – like as if anyone had forgotten.

  5. [Sales smiled, and offered him a cup of tea.]

    I’m gobsmacked. You mean she didn’t continually interrupt him in an aggressive manner. Well I never!

  6. @ adrian, 60

    I’m gobsmacked. You mean she didn’t continually interrupt him in an aggressive manner. Well I never!

    Sales-interviewing-Liberal-pollies is a different creature to Sales-interviewing-Labor-pollies.

    The aggressive interrupting is generally the preserve of the latter.

  7. [I posted the link up just to remind everyone what piece of work the Puff Adder was – like as if anyone had forgotten]

    Not forgotten, and unfortunately still not gone either.

  8. poroti@58

    mikehilliard

    Before he mentioned his ill health I was worried by his development of frequent coughs/clearing of throat. Thought it might be smoking type cancer related but from that it looks like the symptoms of his medication. Opiates would do it. A real shame. Hope he becomes an “Elder Statesman” of the party that they listen to.

    Another John Faulkner figure.

  9. [The aggressive interrupting is generally the preserve of the latter.]

    Yes I know only too well.
    We need a sarcasm font…

  10. mikehilliard

    I was thinking opiates for the management of what must have been terrible pain. We need to consult Diogenes for a second opinion 😆

  11. [Well, you’d have thought the presence of the Leader of the Federal Opposition in your neck of the woods would make the evening news, I can remember a time when that would most certainly have been the case. Not so for ABC Adelaide I’m afraid, no mention of Shorten’s visit at all. But we got the previously mentioned turgid waffle from Melissa Clarke.]

    You can’t spot the LOTO unless they’re in hi-vis gear.

  12. [Ben Eltham ‏@beneltham 6m6 minutes ago
    on @triplejHack Mark Butler makes hilarious (and seemingly plausible) point that the government has mixed up the roles of CEFC and ARENA]

    ARENA?

  13. Shorten’s visit here got a reasonable run on Nine news tonight. Can’t speak for any other channel.

    Heard the Melissa Clarke piece via News Radio. Does not even class as reporting, nothing but pure propaganda.

  14. mikehilliard

    [I know you hold a special place in your heart for the Puff Adder. 😉 ]
    Where Dennis Leary keeps his “special” feeling ? A song for the LNP.

    [Down in the bottom of our chests, about the special feeling

    We get in the cockles of our hearts, maybe below the cockles
    Maybe in the sub-cockle area, maybe in the liver
    Maybe in the kidneys, maybe even in the colon, we don’t know]
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrgpZ0fUixs

  15. And speaking of Melissa Clarke. Her smug tone today was very annoying. Not nice to say but i would have liked to snap the smugness out of her with some choice words, if it were at all possible.

  16. https://retreview.dpmc.gov.au/821-australian-renewable-energy-agency-arena-and-clean-energy-finance-corporation-cefc

    CFEC does finance in general.
    “ARENA was established to support the research, development and demonstration of renewable energy technologies”

    The COALition have obviously confused the roles of the 2 related but separate bodies.
    Not that it really matters, Abbott has stated its ‘no secret’ he wants to get rid of renewable.

  17. @TBA/78

    Why doesn’t Abbott do the party a favor and RESIGN? Over Fossil Fuel donations! and Tax subsidization to the Fossil Fuel sector

  18. TrueBlueAussie

    Fixed it for ya. Bring it on.
    [Why doesn’t Bill Shorten do his party and the nation a favour and RE-SIGN]

  19. The Coalition has already tried twice to axe the $10 billion CEFC fund, which actually makes a profit for the government, but failed to get the legislation passed.

  20. The Grattan Institute’s Tony Wood, who has worked for Origin Energy and was the program director of the Clinton Foundation’s Clean Energy Projects, said he thought the best way to encourage low-emission technology would be to set clear climate change goals. At the moment Australia’s emissions goals did not extend beyond 2020.

    “At the moment solar and wind do cost more because they don’t require fossil fuels to include the cost of environmental damage in the cost of their product, so this is essentially a subsidy for fossil fuel. This makes solar and wind look more expensive than it really is,” Mr Wood said.

  21. So the Greek Socialists… after acting like tough mensie men and holding a mansly man referendum to tell the big bad EU to shove their Austerity… now come crawling back to Athens with their tails between their legs and having to implement far worst austerity than the measures they rejected?

    I mean… what… the… fark… were… they… thinking?

  22. 79
    Zoid the article says its above board. I wonder if it’s above board to take 40 k as money for research worker.Then spend it on a campaign officer for your political election. All while you are negotiating worker/business pay and conditions. If it’s not that’s easy , just declare it as a political donation 8 years later.

  23. When it comes to renewable energy, Denmark is officially kicking arse. Yesterday, Denmark’s wind farms produced 116 per cent of national electricity demands, allowing the country to export power to Norway, Germany and Sweden, that figure had risen to 140%.

    Making money from wing turbines – what a novel idea…..perhaps instead of digging up coal to make a fortune……………………..some billionaire could change direction to make a dollar or two

  24. Tony Abbott and his dirty deeds done not so cheap…

    Adani Mining, $49,500: Indian conglomerate developing the giant Galilee coal fields in Queensland.

    Ross Adler, $50,000: former CEO of Santos, whom Libs appointed to the Telstra board. Made plenty as chair of Dominos Pizza.

    ANZ Bank, $150,000: easily Australia’s largest financier of carbon-intensive energy sector and most politically generous of the big four banks. Now chaired by David Gonski.

    Lord Michael Ashcroft, $250,000: controversial British business and conservative political figure who gave Libs a record $1 million donation back in John Howard’s day.

    Australian Salary Packaging Industry Association, $250,000: responded generously when Liberals promised to overturn Kevin Rudd’s clampdown on tax breaks for packaged salaries. McMillan Shakespeare is the largest industry player.

    ASX Ltd, $110,000: gave the same to both sides and was clearly relieved when Bill Shorten was persuaded not to introduce competition into its monopoly-clearing business.

    Balmoral Pastoral, $400,000: As Bernard Keane reported, this outfit also gave $200,000 to the federal Libs in 2012-13. Is owned by billionaire Bob Oatley, who made his fortune selling Rosemount to Southcorp for $1.5 billion and now focuses on Hamilton Island and winning Sydney-to-Hobart races.

    Joseph Brender, $100,000: wealthy businessman who made his fortune in textiles and retail and lives near Malcolm Turnbull in Point Piper.

    Brickworks, $150,000: controlled by Rich Lister Robert Millner, who oversees a conglomerate of intertwined listed companies, which have now given more than $2 million of shareholder funds to the Liberals and very little to Labor. Was mentioned in dispatches at the Independent Commission Against Corruption after working with Peta Credlin to fight the carbon tax.

    Century Plaza, $220,000: the private company of retail billionaire Solomon Lew, who has lobbied hard for a higher GST on online purchases.

    Chevron Australia, $47,300: one of the 10 biggest global oil super-majors with major investments off Western Australia.

    Clubs Australia, $180,000: not-for-profit pokies lobby, which was relieved when Liberals helped fight off the Gillard-Wilkie pokies pledge on mandatory pre-commitment.

    Coca-Cola Amatil, $55,000: controlled by Atlanta, chaired by David Gonski and a long-time litigant and lobbyist against container deposit schemes globally.

    Coles Group, $55,000: part of Wesfarmers and Australia’s grocery duopoly along with Woolworths. Exposed to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission and political intervention due to enormous market power over suppliers.

    Coogee Chemicals, $50,000: manufacturer exposed to carbon tax. Controlled by Rich Lister Gordon Martin, the inaugural president of the Australian Institute of Company Directors’ Western Australian chapter and former chancellor of Curtin University in Perth.

    CST Mining Group, $50,000: Hong Kong-based miner, which owns the Lady Annie copper mine in Queensland.

    Dow Chemical, $55,000: US-based chemical giant. Exposed to carbon tax.

    Peter Edwards, $100,000: the most politically generous member of the Smorgon family.

    Jon Fogarty, $100,000: former WA footballer who made the media with some controversies over contracts running public hospitals.

    Sir Michael Hintze, $75,000: made his fortune running hedge fund CQS.

    Hong Kong Kingson Investment: $500,000: prolific donor which gave a range of parties a total of $761,000 as far back as 2007-08, as The Australian reported at the time. Also gave federal ALP $600,000 last year through its associated Kingold division.

    Jiebo Huang, $200,000: lists a Mosman address, little known publically.

    IPGL Ltd, $50,000: London firm controlled by former Tory treasurer Michael Spencer.

    Jefferson Investments, $55,000: Sydney-based outfit, which has given more than $250,000 over the years, including some to ALP.

    Linc Energy, $100,000: another of the Queensland-based gas outfits that has so outraged Alan Jones for their alleged capture of the LNP ahead of its traditional agricultural constituency.

    Lion Ltd, $55,000: dairy and beer giant now controlled by Japanese firm Kirin, which has Sir Rod Eddington on the board. Contribution probably involved free beer at fund raisers.

    Manildra Group, $124,000: continues Rich Lister Dick Honan’s long practice of seeking regulatory support for products such as ethanol through donations.

    Paul Marks, $750,000: based in Waterfront Place in the Brisbane CBD and fronts Nimrod Resources, which has mining aspirations near Bourke in outback NSW.

    Harold Mitchell, $100,000: advertising heavyweight and Rich Lister who tends to support both sides.

    Alf Moufarrige, $40,000: Rich Lister who controls global serviced office firm Servcorp and has donated more than $500,000 to the Liberals over the years.

    New Hope Coal, $250,000: controlled by Millner family through Soul Pattinson and Brickworks structure. Made famous by Alan Jones over controversial Acland project on the Darling Downs.

    Parakeelia Pty Ltd, $411,276: software company serving the Liberals, which incensed David Marr back in 2007, given Ron Walker connection.

    Peabody Energy, $50,000: world’s biggest coal miner, based in the US with big interests in NSW and Queensland.

    Philip Morris, $45,000: US tobacco giant now banned from giving to the Liberals in a move that Tony Abbott’s successor is not obliged to maintain.

    Punusi Pty Ltd, $100,000: a previous player in the NSW agriculture and development space but current interests unclear.

    SixMileBridge Pty Ltd, $50,000: business operating out of Double Bay in Sydney.

    Sonic Healthcare, $200,000: listed healthcare player very dependent on ongoing federal funding.

    Gandel Group, $150,000: Melbourne billionaire John Gandel, who has huge property interests like Chadstone in Melbourne and is one of the five richest property moguls in Australia.

    Sean Tomlinson, $100,000: Gold Coast entrepreneur who made it onto Young Rich List through iPad point-of-sale business Revel Systems.

    Village Roadshow, $200,000: Graham Burke and the Kirby family have been long-time Liberal supporters, with overall donations now approaching $3 million.

    Walker Group, $100,000: billionaire Sydney property developer Lang Walker has used Graham Richardson for lobbying but favoured the Liberals more over the years.

    Westfield, $150,000: the Lowy family have directed more than $10 million to politicians and parties globally over the years.

    Woodside Energy, $129,500: the biggest ASX listed player in the oil and gas space, now breaking free from Shell.

    Zafcan Pty Ltd, $100,000: Melbourne registered firm at 1 Spring Street, which donates a similar amount to the Liberals most years.

    Zip Heaters, $100,000: appliance and tap manufacturer controlled by wealthy 82-year-old Sydney businessman Michael Crouch.

  25. @silmaj/97

    No, because the loopholes are made for by coalition party and their backers.

    Its like the Canadian PM wanting to reverse the donation laws over in Canada.

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