The latest fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Roy Morgan records movement to the Coalition, who are up 2.5% on the primary vote to 41.5%, with Labor down 1.5% to 34.5% and the Greens down 0.5% to 13.5%. This leaves Labor’s two-party lead at 51-49 on both previous election and respondent-allocated measures, respectively compared with 53-47 and 53.5-46.5 last time. Note that only the second of the two weekend polling periods took place after Bill Shorten’s appearances at the trade union royal commission.
Meanwhile, polls conducted for the Launceston Examiner by ReachTEL showed the Liberals holding on to leads in the northern Tasmanian marginals of Bass and Lyons, both of which were won from Labor in 2013. As Kevin Bonham interprets the apparently confusing presentation of the results from the print edition, the numbers translate into a 51-49 lead for Liberal member Andrew Nikolic in Bass, and a 53.2-47.8 lead for Eric Hutchison in Lyons, respectively indicate a 3% swing to Labor and a 2% swing to the Liberals. The polls were conducted on Thursday evening from samples of slightly below 600 apiece.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average result from Essential Research strengthens the impression of Bill Shorten taking a knock, though more from its monthly personal ratings than voting intention. The latter have Labor losing a point to the Greens, who are on 38% and 11% respectively, with the Coalition steady on 41% and two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 in favour of Labor. Shorten is down five on approval to 27% and up seven on disapproval to 52%, compared with what were already his worst ever results. Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 37% and up three on disapproval to 53%, erasing a slight improvement in last month’s result, but he now has a clear 37-30 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 38-33 last time.
There has also been a reversal in opinion as to who is likely to win the next election since the question was last asked at the height of the Coalition’s troubles in February, at which time 49% favoured Labor and 23% the Coalition. Now the Coalition holds a lead of 37% to 32%. Other questions relate to constitutional recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders (61% to 16% in favour), climate change (56% say it’s happening as a result of human activity and 31% say it’s not, respectively up two and steady since March).
Also, the Seven Network last night had results from a ReachTEL poll, which I guess formed part of the questionnaire in their last federal poll, showing 33% want an election this year, 24% want it early next year, and 43% want in on schedule in the second half of next year. That would seem to suggest a slight majority in favour of an early election.