Morgan: 51-49 to Labor

New polls record solid movement to the Coalition nationally, and encouraging findings for the Liberals in two of their Tasmanian seats.

The latest fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Roy Morgan records movement to the Coalition, who are up 2.5% on the primary vote to 41.5%, with Labor down 1.5% to 34.5% and the Greens down 0.5% to 13.5%. This leaves Labor’s two-party lead at 51-49 on both previous election and respondent-allocated measures, respectively compared with 53-47 and 53.5-46.5 last time. Note that only the second of the two weekend polling periods took place after Bill Shorten’s appearances at the trade union royal commission.

Meanwhile, polls conducted for the Launceston Examiner by ReachTEL showed the Liberals holding on to leads in the northern Tasmanian marginals of Bass and Lyons, both of which were won from Labor in 2013. As Kevin Bonham interprets the apparently confusing presentation of the results from the print edition, the numbers translate into a 51-49 lead for Liberal member Andrew Nikolic in Bass, and a 53.2-47.8 lead for Eric Hutchison in Lyons, respectively indicate a 3% swing to Labor and a 2% swing to the Liberals. The polls were conducted on Thursday evening from samples of slightly below 600 apiece.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average result from Essential Research strengthens the impression of Bill Shorten taking a knock, though more from its monthly personal ratings than voting intention. The latter have Labor losing a point to the Greens, who are on 38% and 11% respectively, with the Coalition steady on 41% and two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 in favour of Labor. Shorten is down five on approval to 27% and up seven on disapproval to 52%, compared with what were already his worst ever results. Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 37% and up three on disapproval to 53%, erasing a slight improvement in last month’s result, but he now has a clear 37-30 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 38-33 last time.

There has also been a reversal in opinion as to who is likely to win the next election since the question was last asked at the height of the Coalition’s troubles in February, at which time 49% favoured Labor and 23% the Coalition. Now the Coalition holds a lead of 37% to 32%. Other questions relate to constitutional recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders (61% to 16% in favour), climate change (56% say it’s happening as a result of human activity and 31% say it’s not, respectively up two and steady since March).

Also, the Seven Network last night had results from a ReachTEL poll, which I guess formed part of the questionnaire in their last federal poll, showing 33% want an election this year, 24% want it early next year, and 43% want in on schedule in the second half of next year. That would seem to suggest a slight majority in favour of an early election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,317 comments on “Morgan: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. [Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 4h4 hours ago
    .@SenRonno I’m more interested in you doing your job as special minister of state and looking into the Speaker’s (mis)use of entitlements.]

    No response from Ronaldson, which shouldn’t be surprising.

    But BBishop seemingly misusing her travel entitlements comes on the back of senior coalition ministers, including the PM getting caught out for travel allowance rorts. So they have form.

  2. 1243
    Barnababy is entitled to criticize. However if he resigned and labor were elected they will maintain the mine so why bother.

  3. [sorry “1233 bullshit” = “1234 bullshit” – forgery is not one of slippers may talents. Fraud is another matter.]

    Slipper did neither: he was TOTALLY cleared of all criminal and civil charges. He has a completely, 100% unblemished legal record.

    The criminal court found that his records were totally within entitlement and accepted practice. It also found that the Parliament had a chance to amend the procedures years before and pointedly declined to do so, despite a recommendation from a PArliamentary committee.

    Ashby dropped his case. He claimed that Slipper was sending him broke in fighting it. The CHEEK of Slipper to fight it!

    In reality, Ashby’s backers thought his case was so weak they were not prepared to finance him further. Ashby made a big deal of fighting the case on its substance, but when it came down to tin tacks, in the end he squibbed it, like the moral coward he was and remains.

    I repeat: Slipper was totally clear of ALL charges, both criminal and civil.

  4. public about the Australia-China free trade agreement when the government has not, and pledged to terminate the use of robocalls if the Liberal Party did the same.
    [The messages went to almost 50,000 people in Canberra and the region. They were about the FTA, as the trade union movement escalated its opposition to the deal.
    The calls, paid for by the Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy Union, angered Senator Seselja over allegations the free trade agreement would sell out local workers.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/cfmeu-robocalls-target-zed-seselja-over-china-free-trade-deal-20150715-gicnpq.html#ixzz3fxYEqhS8

  5. [Yep Jones says the brawl has only began. Unless of course, Abbott and Baird stop the project from proceeding]

    Abbott is so desperate to pick a fight, he picked a fight with his number 1 fan-man.

    The dressing sheds and showers of Jones’ days at GPS schools run deep with the deep waters of authority. In the old days Abbott would have had his bottom smacked by the Running Game coach. Today, Abbott cops it through a microphone.

    Jones simply sees Abbott as just another naughty boy. He knows how to deal with them.

  6. I think I might go on the 2GB site tomorrow and vote in the poll that Jones is setting up. I’m sure it will be overwhelmingly against the mine.

  7. IMF calling for Hair Cut…

    The International Monetary Fund has warned that Greece will require far more generous debt relief than is currently on offer from its creditors, as MPs in Athens prepare for a crucial vote on Wednesday on a new bailout plan. An IMF report leaked to Reuters shows that Greece’s public debt is likely to peak at 200% of its national income within the next two years, with the risk that the actual outcome could be even worse

  8. Jones’ views only hold currency outside of Sydney/NSW because Abbott and his ministers (Hockey and Morrison in particular), have shackled themselves to the 2GB altar of public opinion, allowing Jones to castigate and/or fawn over as appropriate to the context.

    Imagine if, once in govt, they’d treated 2GB as just another rent seeking, low impact radio program.

  9. 1257
    The justice said that parliamentary entitlements are too broad however parliament or the electorate could deal with it. I assume that means that justice had already been served.

  10. Well Jones has already played an important role in helping to bring down a state government. Maybe he can now do the same with a federal government.

    He certainly knows how to apply the blow torch.

  11. Well this is a surprise …

    There must be debt relief for Greece – Cameron

    The UK prime minister has said the IMF is right to call for debt relief for Greece. At prime minister’s question time, David Cameron said:

    “The principle that there must be debt relief is right. It is in the UK’s interest for the eurozone to resolve how it conducts itself. They need to resolve these issues, and quite fast”

    Maybe David sees it as a way to unwind the EU

  12. The most amusing thing about Mrs Bishop’s latest antics is the notion that by hopping over to Europe and trying to charm people, she could have enhanced her prospects of being elected head of the IPU. It might have worked if she’d been bandaged from head to foot and unable to speak, like the patient in white in Catch 22 – she might have got some sympathy votes – but otherwise, forget it.

  13. Alan Jones on qanda next week

    [Coming Up – Monday, 20 July
    Tim Fischer – Former Deputy Prime Minister and author
    Alan Jones – Influential Radio Broadcaster
    Jacqui Lambie – Independent Senator for Tasmania
    Mark Butler – Shadow Minister for Environment
    Katherine Teh–White – Managing director, Futureye]

  14. There needs to be a full investigation into choppergate. These are some of the questions that need answering:

    1. When was it considered necessary for bb to charter a chopper?
    2. When was the charter booked?
    3. What due diligence was done before making the booking to ensure the lowest price for the chopper?
    4. Why were other forms of transport rejected?
    5. Who owns/ operates the chopper and what, if any, lnp connections are there with the owner?
    6. Did the chopper owner or its associates make any and if so what donations to the vic state election?
    Oh, and of course,
    7. What was the putative advantage to the taxpayer in brownies joy flight?

  15. [Alan Jones on qanda next week]

    Too funny. And while Abbott has his ban happening and all.

    ABC certainly going for ratings that’s for sure.

  16. silmaj @ 1252

    [Barnababy is entitled to criticize. However if he resigned and labor were elected they will maintain the mine so why bother.]

    It’s called principle. But a National or Liberal does not know what a principle is.

    As for Labor’s position, we are talking about a mine in National heartland. The National Coalition government has approved it and the national government and the State Coalition government will get all the payoff. The farmers are being screwed big time, but they are stupid enough to keep voting Nats.

    So why is everybody making a big fuss about Labor’s intentions? Labor should simply say. If the mine is going when we get into power, we are not going to do anything about it.

    Even the Greens, whose purist attitudes mean they will never, ever occupy the Treasury benches are having a go at Labor, as though it has a say, rather than the Coalition Some people here believe, of course, that it is a matter of showing the public the light and they will flock to the Greens as though they are the true Religion of the Messiah. It ain’t going to happen. If the Greens get anywhere near forming a government, they will have to make so many compromises they will make Syriza look like pristine purists.

    So bugger off Liberals; bugger off Greens. Go and fight it out between you over the Shenhua coal mine – it’s your baby – sort it out. And Barnaby can see whether he can convince people in his electorate that he has done all he can to stop the mine while sitting in his cushy, very highly paid Ministerial position. If the farmers in his electorate are as stupid as I think he will be returned with an increased majority.

  17. Alan Jones on Q and A, proof if any more was needed , the show is a nest of socialists.
    Also thanks Deb@1263 for the US link I assume this is in the context of the Iran deal and how the Republicans are coming out against it.

  18. The farmers of New England are lucky to be able to save face by claiming they “would have” voted for Windsor and never that fool Barnaby if he’d only run in 2013. And hopefully next year they’ll get the chance to make good on it.

  19. 1277
    The original exploration permit was approved by labor. Should the following govts can this when they have no scientific support to do so. The problem is that if this land is as is claimed prime ag land it should have never have been given a permit to begin with. If you want to make political mileage out of it your party will have to come out and say they’ll stop it.

  20. It’s issues like Mrs Bishop’s helicopter that highlight that one thing the ALP parliamentary team rather lacks at the moment is someone who can destroy an opponent with humour. One can just imagine what Gough Whitlam, Mick Young or Fred Daly would have been able to make of this. The battle there must have been to get the passenger headphones on without destroying the hairstyle would be a nice starting point.

  21. Not In My South Australian Backyard, you don’t.

    The Eastern states think they are so wonderful, let them store the nuclear waste. SA is the only state with a drink container deposit scheme. Do you think a population who did that would want anyone else’s rubbish?

    Socrates@961

    Reading the details of the proposed USA – G8 – Iran deal on Iranian nuclear power, there is an obvious potential for Australia to be of use in this solution, if it is diplomatically fleet of foot.

    The deal involves accounting for Iran’s spent nuclear fuel, so that it is not used to make weapons. There is a suggestion here that most would be shipped ot Russia:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/15/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-deal-is-reached-after-long-negotiations.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=a-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

    What if Australia offered to supply uranium to Iran via lease, so that we took it back when spent, and stored it safely somewhere north of Port Augusta? We have ideal geology and safe remote areas near a port and rail line. Might even generate a few jobs here in SA.

  22. http://greens.org.au/node/10525
    [Tuesday, Mar 3rd, 2015

    The Nationals, along with the Liberals and Labor, have today failed to support the Australian Greens’ Senate motion calling for the Liverpool Plains to be off limits to CSG and coal, including the Shenhua Watermark mine.

    “The Nationals Senators all fled the chamber for the vote, while the Liberal and Labor Senators voted against our call for the protection of the Liverpool Plains,” Senator Larissa Waters, Australian Greens mining spokesperson, said

    “The Nationals didn’t even have the guts to go on record and tell their constituents whether they think the Liverpool Plains should be permanently off-limits for coal and coal seam gas mining….]

  23. silmaj @ 1282

    [If you want to make political mileage out of it]

    My ass has fallen off laughing so much at your tut-tutting over the making of political mileage. Seriously world championship shameless hypocrisy on your part. Unbelievable – except the fact that you are a rusted on Liberal means that you are utterly blind to hypocrisy.

  24. The best places to store nuclear waste in SA would be somewhere in the suburbs of Medindie/Toorak/Norwood/Magill/Blackwood – one or more of those nice suburbs.

  25. [Remember, when he calls for people to be killed, it’s okay!]

    I did take his lead and suggest earlier that Bronwyn could take her next chopper trip a one way one over the ocean in a chaff bag. Given how badly she has wrecked Parliament, I’m sure Alan will be all for it.

  26. Britain takes the IMF-Varoufakis line on debt relief….

    [There must be debt relief for Greece – Cameron

    The UK prime minister has said the IMF is right to call for debt relief for Greece. At prime minister’s question time, David Cameron said:

    The principle that there must be debt relief is right. It is in the UK’s interest for the eurozone to resolve how it conducts itself. They need to resolve these issues, and quite fast.

    Opposition leader Harriet Harman says, with President Putin waiting in the wings, this has wider significance. This is not just about economics.

    Cameron says Harman is right. It is not for Britain to bail out eurozone countries. But if it left the euro and needed humanitarian assistance, he thinks the Commons would take a different view.]

  27. http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/15/greek-crisis-mps-bailout-imf-debt-relief-alexis-tsipras-live

    [Deputy finance minister resigns over Greek bailout
    Alternate minister of finances NANTIA VALAVANI.

    It’s official. Nadia Valavani, deputy finance minister, has resigned from Alexis Tsipras’s government just hours before the parliament votes on the bailout package.

    As flagged earlier, Valavani has told Tsipras that it is “impossible” for her to keep serving in his government, given the austerity measures he had agreed to.

    In a letter released by the finance ministry, Valavani warned that Greece faced a “crushing” capitulation at the hands of its creditors in Brussels.

    The bailout terms were not a “viable solution” to Greece’s problems, she insisted, warning:

    The solution imposed today in such a depressing way is not sustainable for the Greek people and for the country.]

    Greece really must leave the Euro-zone. The alternative is further totally futile depression and appropriation. They must exit the fixed exchange rate regime, implement tax and institutional reform and reflate.

  28. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/15/make-break-moment-greece-mps-vote-austerity-proposals

    [Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, is preparing for a make-or-break parliamentary vote over the austerity measures Athens must take in exchange for a fresh bailout from its eurozone partners.

    Just hours before the vote, Tsipras suffered a blow with the loss of a key minister, Nadia Valavani. The deputy finance minister resigned, saying it was “impossible” for her to keep serving in the Tsipras government given the austerity measures he had agreed to. She warned the nation faced a “crushing” capitulation at the hands of its creditors in Brussels.

    Tsipras must keep the number of rebels within his own party below 40, in order to pass the measures required as part of the controversial rescue package agreed after marathon talks over the weekend.

    The deal – which includes austerity measures tougher than those overwhelmingly rejected by the Greek public in a referendum this month – has come under fresh fire, after the International Monetary Fund published a highly critical paper calling for large-scale debt relief for the stricken country.

    The IMF’s “debt sustainability analysis”, which was published by the Washington-based lender after parts of it were leaked to the media, suggested Greece may need a 30-year moratorium on repayments; or a substantial “haircut” – a partial write-off of its debts.

    Michel Sapin, France’s finance minister, supported the analysis, saying: “The IMF is saying the same thing as we are.” But Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, has made clear that a debt haircut is unacceptable.

    Eurozone ministers received the paper before the marathon 17-hour summit at the weekend; but the deal that emerged contained no upfront pledge of debt relief – only a promise to discuss it.

    Greece is already in arrears to the IMF, and the emergence of the paper raised doubts whether the Washington-based lender would be willing to contribute to another Greek bailout.

    The IMF’s open scepticism about the sustainability of the Greek deal emerged as Jack Lew, the US Treasury Secretary, flew to Europe for talks with policymakers about resolving the situation. He will meet Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, on Wednesday, and Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s finance minister, on Thursday.

    Lew has urged his eurozone partners to agree a deal that puts the country’s economy on a sustainable footing.]

    It is obvious to everyone by now that the Euro system is a depression-making machine. It really needs to be either reformed or dissolved.

  29. I haven’t heard anyone from Labor say anything about the mine.

    Why should they? The Nats and Libs are fighting it out amongst themselves. Its a seat Labor is unlikely to win.

    Barnaby has egg on his face whatever happens, and it’s entirely his own fault.

  30. 1282
    silmaj

    This is all just p@#ssing in the wind. The LNP have the discretion to prevent mining in New England. Joyce, the dimwit, the flea, the joke, has let himself down; he’s let his constituents down; he’s let his cowardice get the better of him.

  31. I thought they needed two choppers for Bishop’s trip to Geelong – one for her person and the other for her sense of entitlement.

  32. silmaj #1282
    [The original exploration permit was approved by labor.]

    True, but the minister who ultimately approved (and who apparently had complete control over the Mine’s approval process) was Ian MacDonald.

    And considering that Ian MacDonald allegedly:

    – Accepted sexual favours in return for introducing businessman to executives of state-owned energy companies

    -Property developer Ron Medich acted as a broker for Macdonald, who was seeking to do business with government agencies where Macdonald had influence as a Minister

    – Claimed that he was under the influence of alcohol and suffering the effects of depression during his time as Minister

    – Open a mining area in the Bylong Valley for coal exploration by the influence of Eddie Obeid to further Eddie’s property and mining interests

    and most importantly, Ian MacDonald was found to be corrupt by deciding to reopen the expressions of interest process for mining exploration licences in order to favour Travers Duncan; issuing of lucrative mining licences at Doyles Creek in the Hunter Valley; and was found giving false and misleading evidence to ICAC.

    So forgive me if I doubt Ian MacDonald’s approval of a coal-mining licence to the Liverpool Plains mine to be in the public interest.

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