BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains a mild improving trend for Labor, albeit that it does so on the strength of a single opinion poll for the week.

The only new poll this week has been another 52-48 result from Essential Research, but it’s been enough to make a measurable difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. In particular, it’s brought it into line with the poll aggregations of Kevin Bonham, Mark the Ballot and Phantom Trend, which as of last week were between 0.4% and 0.6% better for Labor than BludgerTrack. That distinction has been all but erased by a 0.3% movement on two-party preferred, which shows up in the seat projection as extra seats for Labor in Victoria and Queensland. There are no new numbers for leadership ratings this week.

Other news:

• Overwhelming support for constitutional recognition of indigenous Australians was recorded by a Newspoll survey published in The Weekend Australian on Saturday, with 63% in favour and only 19% opposed.

• The Canberra Times has reported results of ReachTEL poll of 1446 respondents, conducted for Unions ACT, which includes a question on voting intention for the next territory election, to be held in October next year. After exclusion of the undecided, it has Labor on 41.5%, Liberal on 35.7% and the Greens on 16.5%, which is rather bad news for the Liberals given the results in 2012 were 38.9% for both Labor and Liberal and 10.7% for the Greens.

• Antony Green has weighed in on the stalled Senate reform process with two pieces, one considering the lessons to be drawn from New South Wales, where a system much like that proposed by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters is already in place for the state upper house, and another on the likely impact of the proposal for the various parties. The basic thesis of the latter is that the Senate would remain outside the control of any one party in all but exceptional circumstances, since this is a legacy of the increase in the size of parliament in 1984 and the routine of half-Senate elections for six rather than five members per state. However, the balance of power would more often be held exclusively by the Greens, unless the change caused the currently disparate micro-party vote to consolidate by some manner of merged entity. Putting his wonk hat on, Antony recommends adjusting the quota for election at each step of the count in the former article, rather than leaving it fixed at the number of votes divided by the number of seats plus one.

• A Liberal Party preselection ballot for Indi will be held on Sunday. Sophie Mirabella is again hoping to contest the seat she lost to independent Cathy McGowan in September 2013, but faces opposition from Kevin Ekendahl, a Wodonga businessman who has previously been a candidate for Melbourne Ports, and Andrew Walpole, an anaesthetist.

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has set the ball rolling on two inquiries, the more interesting of which will consider “current rules and practices in relation to campaign activities in the vicinity of polling places”. The other is on the delivery of electoral and civics education, in schools and at Parliament House.

• My subscriber-only contributions to Crikey over the past week have included one on the Northern Territory redistribution, a subject made more interesting than usual by claims of political interference and the resignation of a Country Liberal Party MP whose seat was abolished, and one on Bill Shorten coming out for fixed four-year terms.

UPDATE (Morgan state SMS polls): Morgan has published its monthly SMS polls of state voting intention, from samples ranging from 1270 in New South Wales to 333 in Tasmania. They record a small amount of Mike Baird’s post-election spike coming off, but with the Coalition still recording a 57-43 lead (down from 58.5=41.5 last month); the Victorian Newspoll result more-or-less corroborated with a Labor lead of 56.5-43.5 (steady); Labor moving into the lead in Queensland but still looking a bit shaky (51.5-48.5, after they trailed 52-48 last month); the Barnett government taking a 52.5-47.5 lead in Western Australia, after trailing 51-49 last time; the Liberals 51-49 ahead in South Australia, up from 50.5-49.5 (remembering the Liberals did in fact win the two-party vote 53-47 at last year’s election, but still lost); and primary votes of 42.5% (up 1.5%) for the Liberals, 33% (up 2.5%) for Labor and 20% (up 0.5%) for the Greens, which as ever feels too low for the Liberals.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,106 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. meher

    [The Daily Telegraph article today on Dreyfus is beyond belief, even for that publication. I hope the Jewish community makes a public comment on it.]

    Absolutely disgraceful!

  4. Good morning all.

    Each day the Courier Mail here in Brisbane has a person on the street slot where they ask 6 people what they think about a certain issue.

    Today the question was “Do you think Bill Shorten is trustworthy ? ”

    The answers were interesting.

    One young male aged 18 loves Bill because he is pushing for SSM.

    A older female loves Bill because he is a strong advocate for social issues.

    One older female does not like Bill. Not because she thinks he is untrustworthy but because he is pushing for SSM.

    Two do not specify Bill but think all pollies lie and

    One younger male thinks he is untrustworthy based on the “vibe” and nothing else.

    I know 6 views do not a definitive verdict make but if that is the best the feral CM can come up with in opinions then it is a tad interesting.

    However, as others have posted here, only time will tell.

    cheers.

  6. MTBW

    Also practical sense. Concessions mean AS can travel to look for work and become ineligible for concessions due to be too well off

  10. MTBW
    We’re a weak and fragile bunch. Sticks and stones may break my bones but words are incomparably hurtful.

  13. Can someone with a bit of social media nous please start a “Je suis ABC” hashtag or whatever?

    We must defend free speech and our independent national broadcaster from political and physical threats. Plus it might put the wind up the 18C “free speech” crowd 🙂

  15. [ So why is Labor in deep doo doo? ]

    Simple answer to that Vic is that they are not, but the Libs and their media running dogs would REALLY like them to be.

    They are i think starting to get a bit frantic on the issue of the Libs sustained, long term polling deficit. Abbott has taken a position with his party room that he can overhaul a 4 point deficit during a campaign. But really, no party wants to be heading towards an election year in that position and he is essentially demanding that the Libs take his word on that as a matter of faith.

    So seems to me to be pretty much ALL that is keeping a lid on internal dissension and keeping Abbott in his job. Is that sustainable? Probably not. 🙂

    Much is coming home to roost for the Libs, or worse for them, about to. Abbott’s continuing bad calls and Govt by brain-fart. An unfolding poor economic narrative underpinned by lack of much in the way of actual management by the Govt. Serious and likely high profile job losses on their way that are pretty much locked in. And some specific issues like the very poor relations with Indonesia, SSM, the subs contract, looming cuts to the States from the previous budget………

    And FFS, Debt and Deficit under the Libs.

    All they have that they see as “positive” for them is BOATS and terror. 🙁

    The ALP #leadersh$t line that they are trying to bootstrap is something they want badly, but really, has no basis in reality. It may be getting a bit of traction among the gullible since when Rudd was turfed, no-one had seen it coming.

    “Ooh Ahh, if the ALP dump Shorten it will be sudden and out of the blue!!”

    Which is bollocks. But…they will try to play on any dissension about anything no matter how trivial to promote that and the media WILL play along.

    Yup, the next round of polling after the Govts “one good week of the year” will be interesting. But the NEED a substantial and sustained improvement, not just the odd bounce back to parity which is about the best they have had since Dec 2013.

  16. Bob’s Uncle

    What a great idea! I would do it if I could but I am not that tech savvy.

    Maybe meher may know how to do it!

  17. Libs are going to take a big hit for attacking the ABC.

    People are slowly starting to see their security rather than freedom ideals of the LNP.

    The ALP failed strategically by providing bipartition support for such an incompetent government. They will benefit by not being the LNP party though, people switching away from LNP rather than to ALP.

  18. bug1

    [The ALP failed strategically by providing bipartition support for such an incompetent government. They will benefit by not being the LNP party though, people switching away from LNP rather than to ALP.]

    I agree with you on that!

  20. “@ABCNews24: Bill Shorten: How is it that people who have millions of dollars get so jealous of people getting $20,000? #ACOSSConf2015 #auspol”

  22. [BK

    Waleed Aly again has a very thoughtful article on the terrorism issue. Well worth reading.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tough-talk-but-inconsistencies-lead-to-confusion-in-fight-against-terrorism-20150625-ghx86k.html

    Abbott trashes the political culture and Aly, in a desultory state, tries to put the furniture back in its place. Alas, he finds the culture, even now somewhat dessicated, won’t fit in the room anymore, as if the walls, floor and ceiling have been shifted and the space made incredibly small. Since we no longer a pavilion, the culture is now to be housed in a small cage, where it can be beaten in full view of a mystified public…

  24. [871
    poroti

    adam abdool

    Scott’s effort was a very pleasant and welcome surprise .]

    If I hadn’t already nominated Gillian Triggs, I would be tempted to nominate Scott for Australian of the Year…perhaps the ABC itself should get a badge..

  29. [The ALP #leadersh$t line that they are trying to bootstrap is something they want badly, but really, has no basis in reality. It may be getting a bit of traction among the gullible since when Rudd was turfed, no-one had seen it coming.]

    What really reflects how bizarrely out of touch the political press corpse is is the fact that they are simply not taking into account the new rules regarding the election and sacking of leaders of the parliamentary party.

    It simply is not possible to roll a Labor leader like the good old days – and the way it is possible to roll a Liberal leader still. Only a leader who is patently a dead duck disaster can be rolled and only after a lot of bitter infighting and wrangling, just to set the long-winded process in motion. Labor may regret this one day, but certainly not under Bill Shorten.

    The only other way to get rid of a Labor leader is if they decide to fall on their own sword. Any leader worth their salt has too much of an ego to do this unless it is so patently obvious that a brain dead bogan would know it’s time to go.

    As I noted in an earlier post, the critical point for Bill Shorten will be the TURC. If a smoking gun is produced, even he would realise that he cannot continue under any threat that the Clown in Chief would seek an early election and fall on his sword. This would, of course, be a disaster as there are a number of excellent potential replacements for him on the Labor side.

    But the likelihood of this happening is small. As others have pointed out, Shorten’s biggest crime appears to have been to work out an agreement with employers that delivered one of the great model outcomes for ideal employer-worker relations. And, as many enlightened employers will tell you, ensuring that trade union officials are well trained in OH&S and other workplace requirements can actually benefit the employer by maximising great worker outcomes.

    So why they are chasing the smell of a dead duck is beyond me. Maybe,it is the screening of TKS that has so recreated a Proustian madeleines moment that the desire to recapture that glorious period when it was great to be a political journalist with all your articles written for you by the players and nobody important ever challenged the substance of what was published day after day.

    Perhaps a good opinion poll whacking the press corpse class back to reality is what the doctor would order.

  30. Remember someone threw a shoe at Howard?

    He wasn’t stripped of citizenship and deported. Howard said wtte ‘all in a day’s work’.

  32. I just got an email from the Australian of the Year Award crowd.

    [Thank you for taking the time to nominate Professor Gillian Triggs for the Australian of the Year Awards. Should you have enquiries about your nomination, please contact us via email awardsinfo@australiaday.org.au or phone 02 6120 0600 and quote your reference number listed above.

    Clearly there is a lot of support for Gillian in the community as we have received a number of nominations for her. A person only needs to be nominated once to be considered for the Australian of the Year Awards, nominations are selected on the quality, not the quantity.
    Rest assured Professor Gillian Triggs will now be put forward for consideration in her home state.

    State and Territories announce their finalists and recipients at a local presentation in November, the recipients then travel to the National announcement of the Australian of the Year, Senior Australian of the Year, Young Australian of the Year and Australia’s Local Hero in January.

    You can keep up to date with the Awards program by signing up for our e-newsletter or follow us on Facebook and Twitter.

    Thank you for being an important part of the Australian of the Year Awards. In nominating someone, you have paid them a huge compliment, acknowledging their attributes and achievements.]

  33. briefly @ 874

    [If I hadn’t already nominated Gillian Triggs, I would be tempted to nominate Scott for Australian of the Year…perhaps the ABC itself should get a badge]

    Not when they rolled over so quickly and without bidding in the first place. Scott has now clearly realised that further appeasement of this government clearly invited more brutality but could not wind back the craven obeisance that had already been made.

    Triggs has stood her ground from Day 1 against the most brutal personal sexist treatment ever dished out by a government to a public official doing their job in a way that did not meet the government’s approval.

  34. [Post Charlie Hebdo massacre: “I believe in free speech – I absolutely believe in free speech” – Tony Abbott
    ]

    Whenever you hear Abbott say something, then repeat it prefaced by “absolutely”, he is lying.

  35. Someone should go check if Abbott has ever said he’s the best friend of free speech, human rights, civil liberties, democracy, etc :P.

  38. Maybe I have missed it, but I haven’t seen anyone make the point that Abbott is running around screeching for beheadings (“heads should roll”) which, although metaphorical, reveal a similar mindset to ISIS.

    Remind me who the terrorist is? Zacky is the moderate.

  39. Pyne: the ABC put a criminal on a bus and bought him to the ABC.

    Wouldn’t it be good if the Education Minister could pronounce brought correctly.

  41. bemused @ 888 many people have made that point already.

    Perhaps we also need to make the point repeatedly that Ciobo and Morris have both contributed to a culture where violence against women is normalised and accepted given their comments about Gillard 2 years ago. Woman in Australia face much greater threats from violence in their own homes than from any jihadi terrorist.

  42. 883
    TPOF

    They’ve been browbeaten, for sure. The ABC have been a soft target. It’s easy to assail them knowing they cannot easily enter the partisan fray. Nonetheless, Scott has staked out some ground and he should be applauded for that. The ABC is another LNP whipping boy. The LNP just hate the political culture and find it easy to blame the ABC, among others, for their failure to prevail over the community. We should rally to them. They need our help and we need theirs.

    I’m starting to dread each coming day: what new atrocity will the LNP conceive and try to prosecute? A pretext to dismember the ABC has got their blood up. It’s making me want to vomit.

  43. [888
    bemused

    Maybe I have missed it, but I haven’t seen anyone make the point that Abbott is running around screeching for beheadings (“heads should roll”) which, although metaphorical, reveal a similar mindset to ISIS.]

    The same notion crossed my mind too. I did think of the
    Reign of Terror…of execution as a form of public amusement and political gratification…Abbott is a singularly vile figure…

  44. Had a flick through the Australian today, I can see one of the government’s lines of attack for the next election.
    In a classic case of projection, Bill Shorten has no credibility because he told a lie® .
    Also to paraphrase BK from this morning, I don’t get why the government is unhappy the ABC is a public rather than a state broadcaster; after all that have one for free with News Corp.

  45. jules@891

    bemused @ 888 many people have made that point already.

    Perhaps we also need to make the point repeatedly that Ciobo and Morris have both contributed to a culture where violence against women is normalised and accepted given their comments about Gillard 2 years ago. Woman in Australia face much greater threats from violence in their own homes than from any jihadi terrorist.

    Thanks Jules, it would have surprised me if no-one had already made it, but I hadn’t seen it.

    The Bob Ellis point about the time that has elapsed since the last terrorist fatality on Australian shores (over 100 years) should be picked up.

    The point should also be made that history has shown that only Labor could provide the leadership Australia needed to get through two World Wars.

  46. Abbott has 14 Months to do Shorten slowly

    Shorten isn’t holding up to the pressure as we have saw in the last few weeks

  47. Also re Pyne and others a@889
    Wasn’t our suspect acquitted ?
    Does this mean other ex-cons say someone like Alan Bond can not longer be interviewed by the media?

  48. Aussie Post has been bleeding millions from their letter delivery business.

    They need to reduce their letter delivery business to deliver once a week and increase spending in their parcel business where they could be the best parcel delivery business in the country if only they tried…

  49. briefly @ 892

    My comment was only in respect of the relative merits of Scott and Triggs.

    It occurred to me, though, that one could cast Scott as Neville Chamberlain and Triggs as Churchill. No disrespect to Scott because Chamberlain was much more maligned because of the course of subsequent history than he deserved to be. He bought valuable time in 1938 and did realise he had no choice but to declare war once Poland was invaded. As PM and not just a maverick calling from the sidelines, he also had responsibility for the lives of military people and civilians who could be slaughtered in an unprepared resistance to the Nazis taken too early.

  50. [ Shorten isn’t holding up to the pressure as we have saw in the last few weeks ]

    Ahh..I see we have ToBeAdvised reporting back from his alternative reality universe again. 🙂

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