BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains a mild improving trend for Labor, albeit that it does so on the strength of a single opinion poll for the week.

The only new poll this week has been another 52-48 result from Essential Research, but it’s been enough to make a measurable difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. In particular, it’s brought it into line with the poll aggregations of Kevin Bonham, Mark the Ballot and Phantom Trend, which as of last week were between 0.4% and 0.6% better for Labor than BludgerTrack. That distinction has been all but erased by a 0.3% movement on two-party preferred, which shows up in the seat projection as extra seats for Labor in Victoria and Queensland. There are no new numbers for leadership ratings this week.

Other news:

• Overwhelming support for constitutional recognition of indigenous Australians was recorded by a Newspoll survey published in The Weekend Australian on Saturday, with 63% in favour and only 19% opposed.

• The Canberra Times has reported results of ReachTEL poll of 1446 respondents, conducted for Unions ACT, which includes a question on voting intention for the next territory election, to be held in October next year. After exclusion of the undecided, it has Labor on 41.5%, Liberal on 35.7% and the Greens on 16.5%, which is rather bad news for the Liberals given the results in 2012 were 38.9% for both Labor and Liberal and 10.7% for the Greens.

• Antony Green has weighed in on the stalled Senate reform process with two pieces, one considering the lessons to be drawn from New South Wales, where a system much like that proposed by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters is already in place for the state upper house, and another on the likely impact of the proposal for the various parties. The basic thesis of the latter is that the Senate would remain outside the control of any one party in all but exceptional circumstances, since this is a legacy of the increase in the size of parliament in 1984 and the routine of half-Senate elections for six rather than five members per state. However, the balance of power would more often be held exclusively by the Greens, unless the change caused the currently disparate micro-party vote to consolidate by some manner of merged entity. Putting his wonk hat on, Antony recommends adjusting the quota for election at each step of the count in the former article, rather than leaving it fixed at the number of votes divided by the number of seats plus one.

• A Liberal Party preselection ballot for Indi will be held on Sunday. Sophie Mirabella is again hoping to contest the seat she lost to independent Cathy McGowan in September 2013, but faces opposition from Kevin Ekendahl, a Wodonga businessman who has previously been a candidate for Melbourne Ports, and Andrew Walpole, an anaesthetist.

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has set the ball rolling on two inquiries, the more interesting of which will consider “current rules and practices in relation to campaign activities in the vicinity of polling places”. The other is on the delivery of electoral and civics education, in schools and at Parliament House.

• My subscriber-only contributions to Crikey over the past week have included one on the Northern Territory redistribution, a subject made more interesting than usual by claims of political interference and the resignation of a Country Liberal Party MP whose seat was abolished, and one on Bill Shorten coming out for fixed four-year terms.

UPDATE (Morgan state SMS polls): Morgan has published its monthly SMS polls of state voting intention, from samples ranging from 1270 in New South Wales to 333 in Tasmania. They record a small amount of Mike Baird’s post-election spike coming off, but with the Coalition still recording a 57-43 lead (down from 58.5=41.5 last month); the Victorian Newspoll result more-or-less corroborated with a Labor lead of 56.5-43.5 (steady); Labor moving into the lead in Queensland but still looking a bit shaky (51.5-48.5, after they trailed 52-48 last month); the Barnett government taking a 52.5-47.5 lead in Western Australia, after trailing 51-49 last time; the Liberals 51-49 ahead in South Australia, up from 50.5-49.5 (remembering the Liberals did in fact win the two-party vote 53-47 at last year’s election, but still lost); and primary votes of 42.5% (up 1.5%) for the Liberals, 33% (up 2.5%) for Labor and 20% (up 0.5%) for the Greens, which as ever feels too low for the Liberals.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,106 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. Please read all of this article, it is seriously disturbing. The dreadful Dutton is going to be given unprecedented power.

    [The Australian Citizenship Amendment (Allegiance to Australia) Act is far more than new law. It defines what it means to be Australian. It gives legal force to who belongs to the Prime Minister’s “Team Australia”.

    Those who support terrorism, even tangentially or unwittingly, are off Team Australia. So, apparently, are protesters who damage federal government property.

    Genocidal war criminals, mass murderers and paedophiles – though – are on the team. In the bill, there is no provision for them to stripped off citizenship, even with a criminal conviction.]

  2. Our stupid, short-sighted PM, who sees every day as a chance to boost his own themes and cannot see farther than the next press release, has used a Magna Carta anniversary speech to reach even further into the past to justify his latest attacks on democracy. The man’s a fool and a knave and should be charged with sedition.

    [The Australian prime minister, Tony Abbott, has used a Magna Carta-themed lecture to say how hard it is to secure terrorism convictions in courts of law, and that the rising threat of foreign fighters “requires a modern form of banishment”.

    In the speech dominated by observations about terrorism, the prime minister said the greatest freedom of all was to “live without fear and dread”. And he suggested Australians “could help to encourage the easy-going versions of Islam that the world so hopes for”.

    Abbott made the remarks during a British high commission-organised event at the Great Hall at Parliament House in Canberra on Wednesday evening. He delivered the 2015 Magna Carta lecture, marking the 800th anniversary of the document that enshrined the principle that the king was not above the law.

    The prime minister spent a large portion of the speech talking about terrorism…

    He pointed to Cicero’s comments from 1,200 years before Magna Carta arguing that “the safety of the people is the supreme law”.]

  3. Lizzie @ 5….

    “the prime minister said the greatest freedom of all was to “live without fear and dread””.

    How true – many of us live in “in fear and dread” of what he and his incompetent government are doing, tearing apart the fabric of our society.

    They have proved they cannot be trusted on a huge range of issues. I “fear” that this is the tip of the iceberg. I “dread” the future with his government in charge for much longer.

  4. Morning

    Abbott says no one should live in fear and dread. Yet every single day, through the media we are assaulted by him on threats re terrorism. Our agencies no doubt are doing their job and Abbott only needs to remind us of this on occasion. Heartily sick of him and his bloody flags.

    It certaily does remind you of someone……

    [ Ben Wood @benwood115
    @Wil_Anderson this guy knows the importance of a few flags…]

  5. Try again

    Ben Wood
    6h6 hours ago
    Ben Wood ‏@benwood115
    @Wil_Anderson this guy knows the importance of a few flags…

  6. Morning everyone.

    [Overwhelming support for constitutional recognition of indigenous Australians was recorded by a Newspoll survey published in The Weekend Australian on Saturday, with 63% in favour and only 19% opposed.]

    This represents another broken promise by Abbott. What is happening with progressing this referendum he promised the coalition was committed to?

  7. Labor should pass the legislation saying they have full faith that the High Court will strike it down at the first opportunity..

    “Children of terrorists stripped of their citizenship could also have their citizenship taken away provided it does not make them stateless, and if they do not have another responsible Australian parent.”

  8. Thanks victoria.

    I have not heard the govt mention indigenous constitutional recognition since the election. That tells me the coalition was only going along with the former govt for appearances sake, with no commitment whatsoever to seeing it through.

  9. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The government didn’t hand over the documents regarding the high seas payoff demanded and now will face a Senate inquiry.
    The deceit behind the citizenship changes. There is a very low evidentiary threshold.
    George Williams says the laws are deeply flawed.
    David Wroe finds an unlikely candidate for citizenship stripping.
    Labor uses its support for the emergency bill to lambast the partisan record of the Abbott led opposition and government.
    Now David Jones is going to put pressure on Coles and Woolies.
    How delightfully ironic. Abbott is about to face a big anti-science backlash on climate change action from the hayseed rump of ignoramuses of the Coalition.
    And with equal irony has Abbott been wedged by the Pope.
    Abbott can’t help himself. This time classified documents are there for all to see in a staged photo op.
    Already there are ways to bypass the Aussie internet filter are coming to light.

  10. Section 2 . . .

    The Victorian Liberal Party’s shameless Daesh for Cash.
    Mark Kenny on the heat Julie Bishop is feeling over the botched handling of the Monis letter.
    Peter Greste says the ABC did not cross the line with Q and A.
    And Richard Ackland says the hysteria over Q and A would do Joe McCarthy proud!
    Mallah and the bluster and BS from Abbott and his NewsCorp drones.,7861
    The 32 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    “View from the Street” gets down and dirty on the mechanics and legalities of offshore detention.–so-offshore-detention-may-not-even-be-legal-20150624-ghwo96.html
    At last! Kathy Jackson ordered to front the Federal Court.
    The Galilee coal mine is shaping up as an economic black hole.
    The Conversation says Abbott spins a tangled web of free speech and editorial judgement.

  11. Section 3 . . .

    David Pope has some fun with the RET fine print.

    Even the cartoonists in the Murdoch rags are getting stuck in to the ABC. Here’s Mark Knight.

    And of course The Australian chimes in courtesy of Bill Leak.

    MUST SEE! David Rowe introduces LNPTV which seems very much like Parliament.

  12. [There are at least 7,102 known languages alive in the world today. Twenty-three of these languages are a mother tongue for more than 50 million people. The 23 languages make up the native tongue of 4.1 billion people. We represent each language within black borders and then provide the numbers of native speakers (in millions) by country. The colour of these countries shows how languages have taken root in many different regions]

    Cool infographic. I so love the options for presenting information these days.

  13. Fess

    All Abbott and co have done to date is politcs. For eg the citizenship kerfuffle was merely to wedge Labor. Nothing more. Nothing less

  14. lizzie

    The Docklands is in dire need of transformation. Parts of the area have become a ghost town. The wind is certainlly a constant issue for the amenities of the area

  15. “Bill Shorten’s appearance before the unions royal commission could hurt his leadership, but it could also show him as a friend of business and workers.”

    [One irony in all of this is that Shorten is being pursued for allegedly being too moderate, too pragmatic.

    The Coalition usually argues that unions are too demanding and inflexible, and they can’t have it both ways.

    Peter Reith, the former workplace warrior. Photo: AAP
    Peter Reith, the former workplace warrior. Photo: AAP

    For example, the Howard government’s former IR minister and enforcer, Peter Reith, has argued that Shorten must answer questions on his time as a union leader.

    Fair enough. But as a Minister, Reith was himself involved with a $50,000 telephone bill, some of which was incurred by his son, along with the “children overboard” affair in 2001.

    Personally, I would like to see Reith give a detailed and frank recounting of the Howard government’s involvement in the 1998 waterfront dispute.]

  16. SadLy, Kathy Jackson couldn’t make the HSU court case yesterday.

    Now worries, her current squeeze Abbott appointed Fair Work Commissioner on $435,000 a year (currently on sick leave) Michael Lawler stepped into the breach.

    [In a remarkable development, Mr Lawler suddenly returned to the court and, after sitting at the table for a few moments, announced that he wanted to address the court himself.

    He strode to the microphone, whereupon a ­moment of drama ensued as Mr Lawler tried to use it and the judge, from Melbourne, repeatedly declared that he could not hear. Eventually Mr Lawler leaned closer in.

    “Your Honour, it’s been necessary to withdraw my counsel’s ­instructions … which she only got after 1pm today,” Mr Lawler said, explaining that his lawyer had been unable to grasp matters during a brief adjournment.

    He added that with the media in the court, his intervention would no doubt be “luridly” ­reported.

    Justice Tracey betrayed no hint of astonishment, although Mr Lawler’s counsel, Claire Latham, looked stunned. Mr Lawler commenced a complicated explanation of the structure of de facto finances. He told the court that while he had been in the process of obtaining loans, there had been a tightening of prudential standards in the banking sector, making this difficult. Mr Lawler went on to ­explain to the court that he had been operating the mortgage for Ms Jackson while she had spent time in hospital last year.

    At this point, Justice Tracey interrupted to remind Mr Lawler that he was addressing the court on his own behalf and could not speak for Ms Jackson, who had her own lawyer present.

    Both Ms Jackson (through her lawyer) and Mr Lawler continued until next Monday their undertaking not to conclude the transfer of the beach property. Mr Lawler ­advised the judge that he would continue with his own evidence ­regarding the couple’s financial situation, and Ms Jackson’s ability to borrow, on Monday.]

  17. lizzie

    The New Daily piece is fair in its analysis re Shorten and his time at the Union. He is due to appear on the 8th July, which is barely two weeks away. From what I have observed of Shorten this week, he seems quite comfortable

  18. Does anyone have a source for this statement by Leyjonhelm? Is he going back to the Neanderthals???

    [Your morning wtf: Leyonhjelm on says aboriginal people may not have been here first hence constitution should not be changed.]

  19. sprocket

    No doubt Jackson is working up to another stint in a mental health facility. From recollection, Lawler is a friend of Abbott, who basically appointed him to the FWC role back in the day

  20. lizzie

    There are various suggestions that the Aboriginal people might not have been the first humans to settle Australia.

    Most of them seem to be based on the same kind of snobbery that backs “Shakespeare could not be Shakespeare, because he was only a butcher boy” type thinking e.g. “These art works are far more sophistocated than later Aboriginal art, therefore it cannot be Aboriginal”.

  21. However —

    [DNA sequencing of a 100-year-old lock of hair has established that Aboriginal Australians have a longer continuous association with the land than any other race of people.

    Sequencing of a West Australian Aboriginal man’s hair shows he was directly descended from a migration out of Africa into Asia that took place about 70,000 years ago]

    […the ancestors of the Aboriginal man separated from the ancestors of other human populations some 64,000 to 75,000 years ago.

    Aboriginal Australians therefore descend directly from the earliest modern explorers — people who migrated into Asia before finally reaching Australia.]

    [“It shows Aboriginal Australians have the longest branch of history in one particular place of anyone in the world.

    “No one else in the world can say ‘I am descended from people who have been here 75,000 years’.”]

    [“Their arrival in Australia required an incredible degree of planning and foresight,” he says.

    “You can’t see Australia from Indonesia, you have to infer it is there. This was a colonisation journey and that is modern behaviour happening more than 50,000 years ago.”]

  22. [“And they’re going to punish the children too…”]

    Do you really want Jihad Jimmy back in the country after being radicalised by Jihad Mummy and Jihad Daddy including holding up severed heads?

    The only way forward would be to Islamise them somehow, way too much work

  23. zoomster

    Thank you very much. Good info. Don’t know why Leyonjhelm has got this bee in his bonnet. I thought he was a science type, being a vet.

  24. But here’s the sort of stuff he’d be referring to —

    [The only real expert on the Bradshaw art was the late Graham Walsh, who documented and studied the art for over 40 years. For a number of reasons, Walsh proposed that they were painted by an Asiatic people prior to the last ice age. For Walsh, one piece of evidence was the oral history of the local Aboriginal people who told him that the paintings were before their time and that they did not know what they communicated..]

    …which I would say is trumped by the DNA evidence, as the Bradshaw paintings are dated to about 30,000 years ago.

    Not hard, given those time spans, for the original Aboriginal population to have been displaced, or for the local Aborigines to be ignorant of the art and its meanings.

    Plonk a bit of Celtic artwork in front of a modern Brit and they’d have a hard time explaining it to you.

  25. DNA sampling has shown conclusively that the ancestors of the current Aboriginal people arrived here some 60,000 years ago and as such are undoubtedly the original inhabitants.

    “Out of Eden – The peopling of the world’ Pub. 2003

  26. Ah, the Minister for Women…

    [IT’S unclear how a North East program helping mothers battling mental illness during and after their pregnancy will be affected now that half its funding has been cut.]

    […Albury Wodonga Health receives $300,000 from the state and federal government to run its Perinatal Emotional Health Program throughout the North East each year.

    However, the Victorian government will continue to fund its half of the program ($150,000).

    “It’s such short notice because we found out 48 hours ago, but we are working on a solution,” Albury Wodonga Health chief executive Susan O’Neill said.]

    [The program provides care to more than 100 women and their families.

    The initiative, which started in 2009, has increased the early detection and prevention of post and antenatal depression, providing better and easier access to support and counselling.]

  27. [“Now worries, her current squeeze Abbott appointed Fair Work Commissioner on $435,000 a year (currently on sick leave) Michael Lawler stepped into the breach.”]

    Such a conspiracy theory knobhead.

    Michael Lawler was appointed by the Gillard Government.

    Getting your “facts” off Independent Australia website are we?

  28. Fess

    Remember all the talk on the blog when Thomson was being pusued. KJackson was in the thick o it. It was then established that Lawler was her partner and he was involved in the oversight of the FWC action against Thomson As 2nd In charge. At the time there was much speculation of Abbott getting the heads up from Lawler (cos apparently they were friends). Remember KJackson when she was the honouable guest at Nicholls Society function and sat with Peter Reith.
    It is all very smelly and there is a huge story in there somewhere. But dont hold your breath. Our msm is focussed on Shorten resigning as OL. You know it makes sense.

  29. TBA

    You had better get your facts right. Lawler was appointed when it was still known as the AIRC, which was way before Labor’s time in power

  30. An found it…….my memory still works sometimes!!

    [Michael Lawler was appointed Vice President of Fair Work Australia — although back then it was called the Australian Industrial Relations Commission. Previously, Lawler was a barrister who made his mark representing employers in employment disputes. The man who appointed him to the AIRC was none other than Tony Abbott — who at the time was Employment and Workplace Relations Minister under John Howard’s Coalition Government.

    On his appointment, Tony Abbott gave a speech praising Lawler in a remarkably personal and intimate fashion. Here is some of what he said that day:

    “Intellect combined with common sense, compassion tempered by realism, ideals shaped but not dimmed by experience, some grasp of the nobility and waywardness that contend in every man: these, in my view, are some of the qualities which Vice President Lawler will bring to the demanding and often lonely life that lies before him.”]

    At a function to farewell Tony Abbott from his position as Employment and Workplace Relations minister the following year, Lawler was one of just four members of the AIRC to attend.

  31. Zoomster

    I advise you NOT to quote any article on DNA sequences that is as old as 2009. The story is changing so rapidly that it is very out dated. The discovery of Neanderthal and Denisovian DNA in Europeans and Aboriginal people and Asians etc has turned everything on its head.

    Out of Africa is pretty well debunked now.

    Now while I have no opinion on the validity of the science the article below shows the range of opinion on the subject.

    [Another study found that a primitive group of humans descended from the Neanderthals and migrated from Siberia to tropical parts of Asia [1]. They contributed DNA to Aboriginal people in Australia along with present-day New Guineans and an Aboriginal tribe of the Philippines. This mixing of genes was reported to have happened 44,000 years ago, before Australia separated from Papua New Guinea.
    As scientific methods evolve they place the origin of the Homo Sapiens in Australia—not Africa.
    Professor Rebecca L. Cann, together with her colleague Alan C. Wilson, previously claimed that humanity can be traced to people living “about 200,000 years ago, probably in Africa”. But she later revoked that claim, declaring that “Mitochondrial DNA puts the origin of Homo Sapiens much further back and indicates that the Australian Aborigines arose 400,000 years ago from two distinct lineages, far earlier than any other racial group.” [2]
    Research by other scientists supports the theory that Australia’s Aboriginal people did not descend from ancestors in Africa – or Siberia. Humanity could have started in Australia…


    I would however strongly urge you NOT to talk of the “out of Africa” theory which essentially was a euro-centric, quasi religious theory, that could only be valid if you discount Australian Aboriginals as human. The fact that it was the “go to” accepted wisdom for so very long, does not put science or scientists in a particularly good light.

  32. So he was probably reappointed during the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd Years. Can’t see a public service term being 8 Years.

    Anyways the point here is that it is another lame conspiracy theory that Michael Lawler was appointed years ago to make Craig Thomson who nobody knew or cared about go to brothels with their union members money and make him look bad.

    The obsession with Kathy Jackson is that while she may not be an angel she made the error of dobbing in the 2 criminals Craig Thomson and his Labor mate Michael Williamson.

    Kathy as we know is innocent until proven guilty

  33. Good morning

    From BK’s excellent review:

    [And of course The Australian chimes in courtesy of Bill Leak.

    The really sad thing is that the cartoon, which is meant to be satirical, is actually spot on accurate.

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