BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains a mild improving trend for Labor, albeit that it does so on the strength of a single opinion poll for the week.

The only new poll this week has been another 52-48 result from Essential Research, but it’s been enough to make a measurable difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. In particular, it’s brought it into line with the poll aggregations of Kevin Bonham, Mark the Ballot and Phantom Trend, which as of last week were between 0.4% and 0.6% better for Labor than BludgerTrack. That distinction has been all but erased by a 0.3% movement on two-party preferred, which shows up in the seat projection as extra seats for Labor in Victoria and Queensland. There are no new numbers for leadership ratings this week.

Other news:

• Overwhelming support for constitutional recognition of indigenous Australians was recorded by a Newspoll survey published in The Weekend Australian on Saturday, with 63% in favour and only 19% opposed.

• The Canberra Times has reported results of ReachTEL poll of 1446 respondents, conducted for Unions ACT, which includes a question on voting intention for the next territory election, to be held in October next year. After exclusion of the undecided, it has Labor on 41.5%, Liberal on 35.7% and the Greens on 16.5%, which is rather bad news for the Liberals given the results in 2012 were 38.9% for both Labor and Liberal and 10.7% for the Greens.

• Antony Green has weighed in on the stalled Senate reform process with two pieces, one considering the lessons to be drawn from New South Wales, where a system much like that proposed by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters is already in place for the state upper house, and another on the likely impact of the proposal for the various parties. The basic thesis of the latter is that the Senate would remain outside the control of any one party in all but exceptional circumstances, since this is a legacy of the increase in the size of parliament in 1984 and the routine of half-Senate elections for six rather than five members per state. However, the balance of power would more often be held exclusively by the Greens, unless the change caused the currently disparate micro-party vote to consolidate by some manner of merged entity. Putting his wonk hat on, Antony recommends adjusting the quota for election at each step of the count in the former article, rather than leaving it fixed at the number of votes divided by the number of seats plus one.

• A Liberal Party preselection ballot for Indi will be held on Sunday. Sophie Mirabella is again hoping to contest the seat she lost to independent Cathy McGowan in September 2013, but faces opposition from Kevin Ekendahl, a Wodonga businessman who has previously been a candidate for Melbourne Ports, and Andrew Walpole, an anaesthetist.

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has set the ball rolling on two inquiries, the more interesting of which will consider “current rules and practices in relation to campaign activities in the vicinity of polling places”. The other is on the delivery of electoral and civics education, in schools and at Parliament House.

• My subscriber-only contributions to Crikey over the past week have included one on the Northern Territory redistribution, a subject made more interesting than usual by claims of political interference and the resignation of a Country Liberal Party MP whose seat was abolished, and one on Bill Shorten coming out for fixed four-year terms.

UPDATE (Morgan state SMS polls): Morgan has published its monthly SMS polls of state voting intention, from samples ranging from 1270 in New South Wales to 333 in Tasmania. They record a small amount of Mike Baird’s post-election spike coming off, but with the Coalition still recording a 57-43 lead (down from 58.5=41.5 last month); the Victorian Newspoll result more-or-less corroborated with a Labor lead of 56.5-43.5 (steady); Labor moving into the lead in Queensland but still looking a bit shaky (51.5-48.5, after they trailed 52-48 last month); the Barnett government taking a 52.5-47.5 lead in Western Australia, after trailing 51-49 last time; the Liberals 51-49 ahead in South Australia, up from 50.5-49.5 (remembering the Liberals did in fact win the two-party vote 53-47 at last year’s election, but still lost); and primary votes of 42.5% (up 1.5%) for the Liberals, 33% (up 2.5%) for Labor and 20% (up 0.5%) for the Greens, which as ever feels too low for the Liberals.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,106 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 23
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  1. Lawler was not a friend of Abbott but Abbott picked him because he represented interests of employers.

    The partisan selection of judges, commissioners to industrial courts based on who is in government and who lawyers represent is writ in stone.

    There is no way that sale of the property will go through without the proceeds be frozen if it is allowed to go through at all

  2. TPP gets “fast track” passage approved in the US –

    [ Obamatrade Passes, The Corporations Win Again… And Now They Gloat

    …Moments ago, the passage of “Obamatrade” was assured when in 60-38 vote, the Senate cleared the “fast track” passage of the TPP also known as the Trans Promotion Authority with no votes to spare, ending the president’s long struggle]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-24/obamatrade-passes-corporations-win-again-and-now-they-gloat

  3. [Baby sent to Nauru 2am now sick w/ gastroenteritis, mother too stressed to produce milk! Return family to hospital #SaveAsha

  4. [Mark Butler MP ‏@Mark_Butler_MP · Jun 17
    The wind farm “impacts” Abbott refused to confirm: dancing cows, exploding bats, restless sheep, eggs without yolks. #qt ]

  5. Sorry, dtt, but I’d rather cite a source which contains traceable references than a blog site which doesn’t (it provides nice citation numbers but they don’t seen to actually lead anywhere).

    Moreover, the site you link to refers directly to the information I provided.

    However, given that all I was trying to do was show that Aborigines were, indeed, the first Australians, you are simply reinforcing my point.

    “Out of Africa” has not been discredited in the way you claim. It has been adjusted to allow for the interbreeding between the original homo sapien population and other hominid groups.

    As for the theory that Australia was the source of all human populations, I was studying that back in the early 1980s!

  6. James Smythe
    James Smythe – ‏@botliff

    @geeksrulz @jarro56. Refugee movements are ‘operational matters’, but terrorist locations are a photo opportunity.
    3:40 PM – 24 Jun 2015

  7. [“Baby sent to Nauru 2am now sick w/ gastroenteritis, mother too stressed to produce milk! Return family to hospital”]

    I agree… they should go to the Nauruan Hospital where all Nauruan mothers take their sick babies.

  8. And, according to Wikipedia (at least as good a reference as a blog site) –

    [Nearly all contemporary American and European scientists are proponents of the Out of Africa theory. Notable exceptions in America include Milford Wolpoff, Rachel Caspari, and David W. Frayer. In Europe, the Multiregional theory once had more proponents under Jan Jelinek, a renowned Czech paleo-anthropologist. After his death though in 2004, support faded.
    In sharp contrast to America and Europe where Out of Africa is the mainstream model, the reverse is true in China:]

  9. Tony Windsor
    1h1 hour ago
    Tony Windsor ‏@TonyHWindsor
    @Thefinnigans So much for operational secrecy . One thing he does know is the use of fear as a tool in the absence of logic
    Peter Bayley
    Peter Bayley – ‏@peterbayley

    @TonyHWindsor @cooee_pet @Thefinnigans
    What’s “frightening” is how far we have fallen as a society under this pugilist psychopath 🙁
    3:52 PM – 24 Jun 2015
    1 RETWEET1 FAVORITE

  10. Interestingly, I googled the quotes used in the creative spirits site in an attempt to find the original source, and all I got was other blog sites citing the creative spirits site.

    Nearly all of them cite the same 2009 study both I and creative spirits used as well.

  11. Shorten’s speech was rather good yesterday. He used the phrase, we wont forget.

    I reckon that and “remember when” are good ones to use to tell the voters what Abbott promised and what we in fact have gotten

  12. This Citizenship law is pure Abbott.

    When he had his only job in the private sector that wasn’t somehow connected with politics or journalism, he worked as a manager in a concrete factory. As usual with Abbott, the job was arranged by a well-connected contact, in this case Sir Tristan Antico.

    Abbott is fond of recalling those days. They are his claim to have “worked in industry”, even though the job was arranged for him, the tenure was short, and he buggered up the job and the factory while he was there.

    Abbott, noticing that concrete trucks became dusty on the job, ordered that all trucks would be cleaned daily. The drivers would be responsible for this.

    Abbott instituted an inspection scheme, with him the inspector and arbiter of cleanliness. Any driver found with a cement truck that didn’t come up to Abbott’s expectations would be in trouble.

    This caused a near riot among workers. Abbott insisted. He was a manager. Managers come up with ideas. They tell people to do things. When people don’t do the things managers tell them to do, they are punished. In any case, these lazy employees needed a bit a geeing up. This was something that only Abbott could see. The old management was too scared of its own workers. Abbott would show them how “management” was done.

    The rest of the story is short. The workforce declared the site black. When Abbott resisted – he began operating equipment by himself… anyone could push a button… why did it have to be a union member who pushed it? – the union called a strike. Abbott was either sacked, or was advised it was better for him just resign.

    This echoes his time at St. Patricks Seminary, at Manly in Sydney. He was rotated into the job of tending to sick seminarians. He alone saw that the existing system of bringing these ill people their meals in their rooms was just pandering to a bunch of malingerers who wanted a day off and an easy life.

    So he cancelled the “meals on wheels” system. Anther riot, albeit a quiet one in St Patrick’s cloistered halls.

    His life has been full of his interposing his own ideas on others. The Head of the Seminary said of him that he was impossible to reason with, “Tony is inclined to score points, to skate over or hold back any reservations he might have about his case, adding that he was, “Just too formidable to talk to unless to agree; overbearing and opiniated”.

    Abbott didn’t like the way much of the seminary was run, actually. He expressed his views in The Catholic Weekly, criticising the local bishop. The bishop arranged to have him sacked.

    He was always making suggestions about how to change things, challenging the authority of the management, trying to shake it up. Abbott, the new boy, knew best… or so Abbott thought at least.

    You can see it today regarding his brain farts: PPL, knighthoods, and now citizenship. The pattern is the same: see a comfortable situation, humming along, minding its own business… jump in and stir it up, wreck it if necessary. If anyone gets in the way, go for them personally: The Whirling Dervish. Keep pushing until you get a fight, any fight. A fight proves you’re right. Abbott loves a fight.

    Before, there were constraints on his behaviour. He was not the ultimate authority. But now he is. He is Prime Minister of Australia. He can swagger anywhere he likes. Tell anyone else what they are to do. He can intimidate and wedge, heckle and, most importantly, he can pick a fight any time he wants one.

  13. Resident village idiot, TBA writes:

    [So he was probably reappointed during the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd Years. Can’t see a public service term being 8 Years.]

    Judges are appointed for life, cretin.

  14. victoria

    [@TonyHWindsor @cooee_pet @Thefinnigans
    What’s “frightening” is how far we have fallen as a society under this pugilist ]
    A bit of a chicken or the egg question. Does the electorate select a leader that resembles them or does it come to resemble the leader ?

  15. [
    ‏@TimWattsMP Government gagging a suspension of standing orders to condemn its politicisation of national security.]

  16. poroti

    That is why yesterday, i made the point that if Abbott and Co are relected, it is what we deserve and basically a reflection of us as a nation. Probably the most worrying thing of all. Looking around, it seems that we are a very self absorbed bunch of selfish idiots

  17. I will also throw these thoughts in (sorry, but human origins is one of the things that interests me greatly–)

    1. If the original human populations interbred with Devonians, Neanderthals etc than by definition this means that Devonians and Neanderthals were the same species.

    So to argue that the Out of Africa theory is discredited (as some do) because humans and Neanderthals interbred is thus absurd.

    Neanderthals, by this definition, must have been a human population.

    All human populations must have had a common source.

    The weight of the science still seems to suggest that this must be Australia.

    2. It is quite possible, however, that no interbreeding took place. The suggestion that it did is based on shared DNA. However, we share lots of DNA with chimpanzees, but this is not put down to interbreeding, but to the possession of a shared ancestor.

  18. And this is the guy that ‘everyone’ finds so charming, willing to agree with anything? I cannot understand people.

    [His life has been full of his interposing his own ideas on others. The Head of the Seminary said of him that he was impossible to reason with, “Tony is inclined to score points, to skate over or hold back any reservations he might have about his case, adding that he was, “Just too formidable to talk to unless to agree; overbearing and opiniated”.]

  19. Sorry, “The weight of the evidence suggest that this must be Africa” — although I’m quite fond of the Australian origin theory, it doesn’t seem to be backed by much evidence (as yet).

  20. [ This Citizenship law is pure Abbott. ]

    Oh Yeah. Have only had a quick read of the explanatory memorandum so far and it doesn’t look good. Will have to look in more detail but I dont think this one is going anywhere except to argument and hysteria.

    Which is actually it purpose as far as Abbott is concerned. 🙁

    Wow, TBA is a truly dedicated soldier for the angry and ignorant. Up this early and still a twit.

  21. Zoomster

    Arguments about who settled a region first are pretty meaningless.

    The idea that Aboriginals all came over in one single wave is patently ridiculous and always has been.

    Like EVERY evolutionary story, change is gradual and successive waves of populations enter a region and contribute to the gene pool.

    As a person of UK descent I will have genetic contributions from the Homo erectus people who settled Europe and reached the UK, from the Denisovians who probably spread into Europe from Asia, from the Neanderthals who dominated for eons, from the Beaker people, from Basque peoples who we NOW know form the genetic backbone of Britain,from the Picts, from the P Celts, from the Romans, the Q Celts, the Frisians or AngloSaxons, the Danes, the Normans and the Huguenots and probably the Flemmish . The “race” or tribe of my great, great by 500 or so … great, grandmother will be found in my mitochondrial DNA, but more than likely I will have NO autosomal DNA (the bit that gives us hair colour physique etc)from her.

    So too with Australian indigenous peoples. They will have been tribes imposed on tribes to give us the genetic mixture of peoples in Australia today.

    What we can say from obvious data is that there were at least two waves of people into Australia, one of people similar to the Tasmanians and a second later group.

    However given that there are at least three broad language groups Tasmanian plus two, at least three waves may be guessed. the Kow swamp people, Lake Mungo people and Bradshaw paintings complicate the story.

  22. I don’t see that all this matters. Why can’t the Constitution just acknowledge that there were ‘earlier settlers’.

  23. dtt

    [Arguments about who settled a region first are pretty meaningless.]

    Not in this case, when a Senator is arguing that this means Aborigines should not be acknowledged in the Constitution.

    [The idea that Aboriginals all came over in one single wave is patently ridiculous and always has been. ]

    Just as well I didn’t argue this, then.

    Does this mean you’re backing away from an Australian origin for humanity?

    ]As a person of UK descent I will have genetic contributions from the Homo erectus people who settled Europe and reached the UK, from the Denisovians who probably spread into Europe from Asia, from the Neanderthals who dominated for eons, from the Beaker people..]

    All of whom belong to the same species, by definition, and thus must have a common source. At present, the weight of the evidence suggests that this was Africa.

  24. zoomster

    Ignore the crackpot stuff.

    The bloke who wrote it is a believer in crop circles and Atlantis [you would have found the same article at a site called Atlanteans or similar] .

    Professor Rebecca L. Cann hasn’t changed her mind at all, there is a recent [a couple of years] interview online with her where she states how solid the ‘out of Africa’ – which she did not coin – theory is and the old now debunked ‘multi region’ theory was the one that had the racist overtones.

  25. shea mcduff

    Cheers. I’m always interested, however, in where crackpot stuff comes from.

    dtt referencing the Bradshaw paintings is, of course, more crackpottery.

  26. If you are interested in this topic may I suggest you get Mike Smith’s book “The Archaeology of the Australia’s Deserts” published 2013 by Cambridge press.
    Great book.

  27. [61
    TrueBlueAussie

    “Baby sent to Nauru 2am now sick w/ gastroenteritis, mother too stressed to produce milk! Return family to hospital”

    I agree… they should go to the Nauruan Hospital where all Nauruan mothers take their sick babies.]

    Once again, further reports that show Abbott’s gulag is unfit for human habitation.

  28. I’ve read the Allegiance Bill a couple of times. It’s a purity test but it’s also likely to be ineffective as a device to quell violence. I’d like to know when the Abbott Government are going to take measures that really would help prevent violence, that will strengthen the community and that will strengthen the rule of law.

  29. Zoomster

    As it happens the history of humans is a subject I am fascinated by, so be prepared to argue hard.

    The oput od Africa theory has by industion been totally discredited because it RELIED on an assumption that Homo sapiens came galloping out of Africa wiping out ALL predecessors. Absolutely NO interbreeding.

    The rival “multi-regional theory” said that there were at least 4 major strands of humans which evolved largely interdependently for a million years or so. There was just enough contact between the regional strands to prevent actual specification (ie where two tribes cannot have viable mixed offspring).

    The four strands (original theory, but much has changed) were Neanderthals (largely Europe), Peking Man, Java Man, and an Afrikan people (Kasi I think but the name escapes me just now).

    Recent research has shown that most people on earth have about 4% Neanderthal DNA, thus supporting the Multiregional theory and knocking out the simplistic “Out of Africa” theory.

    Denisovians have complicated the picture. They are ancient and heavily Asia and Oceania focused. They are not I think the “shovel toothed” Peking people, but possibly could be the Java peoples and perhaps our Kow swamp people.

    This relatively recent Nature article is great about the Denisovians.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/08/the-other-neanderthal/375916/

    More to the point, avoid quoting any article before 2010, since they predate the discovery of the Denisovians and pretty much the Neanderthal link

  30. briefly

    I’m no legal beagle, but these measures seem to strongly echo mandatory sentencing, which the right wing loves, but lawyers regard as too restrictive.

  31. Oh I should just clarify, that i find the term species used in the nature article offensive and unscientific. By DEFINITION if two sub-populations can interbreed they are NOT different species. therefore Neanderthals are Homo Sapian var Neanderthalis NOT homo Neanderthalis.

  32. dtt

    I don’t see anything to argue with.

    The bottom line is that all those different variations of human being, by definition, must have had a common ancestry and a common area of origin.

    So far Africa still leads when it comes to ticking those boxes.

  33. Q&A must be devastated that Andrews is boycotting them. To lose a raconteur with such wit and charm him will really damage the show. Similarly, if truss and abetz boycott them, they’re stuffed.

    They must (& as we all are) be excited the Sofa is likely to get pre-selected in Indi – I know the McGowan camp would be barracking for her to run again. Last time they had senior local national party members & “anyone who’d ever been in a room with Mirrabella basically” donating to their campaign.

    The fact that the libs let pyne and the sofa onto Q&A repeatedly shows what horrible people must dominate the liberal party. anybody with any skerrick of humanity/emotional intelligence shudders when they see those two, but at lib HQ they are seen as the ‘young’ and acceptable/human face of the party. Uuuuggghhhhh.

  34. Barrie Cassidy just finished his segment on ABC radio. Apparently Turnbull is guest on Insiders Sunday.

    Summary of state of play on last sitting day. Labor is supporting the fibs on citizenship, migration act and other budgetary measures which were not detailed.
    He made no mention of any impending early election. I suspect it is because Labor have not given Abbott a reason to. No doubt Abbott was hoping for a trigger

  35. Clause 56 of the explanatory memorandum which deals with the question of “in the service of”

    [The provision does not define „is in the service of‟. As the phrase is not defined it should be given its ordinary meaning. In the Macquarie Dictionary “service” is an act of helpful activity or the supplying of any articles, commodities, activities etc., required or demanded. In this context the term, “in the service of” is intended to cover acts done by persons willingly and is not meant to cover acts done by a person against their will (for example, an innocent kidnapped person) or the unwitting supply of goods (for example, the provision of goods following online orders by innocent persons). A person may act in the service of a declared terrorist organisation if they undertake activities such as providing medical support, recruiting persons to join declared terrorist organisations, providing money or goods, services and supplies to a declared terrorist organisation.]

    I don’t think a court would consider “in the service of” to mean someone who provides any service.

  36. [Q&A must be devastated that Andrews is boycotting them. To lose a raconteur with such wit and charm him will really damage the show. Similarly, if truss and abetz boycott them, they’re stuffed.]

    The ABC is to be punished by leaving it with only Barnyard, Ciobo and Porky Pynenuts to choose for the obligatory lying scoundrel that they have to use to balance the truth under the ABC charter.

  37. Zoomster

    Perhaps for once we can have an discussion without rancour.

    As I clearly stated I was not commenting on the science of the article and I have not followed the authors at all. I was just putting up a post to indicate the idea was by no means settled scientifically. it was the first to pop up when I googled so it got the guernsey.

    I very much doubt an Australian human origin BUT I think some parts of South East Asia are possible, including New Guinea. perhaps a Gondwana Land origin is possible. Any region where great ape ancestors have lived for millions of years must at least be on the candidate list. Essentially this means Orangutan, Chimpanzee and Gorilla (possibly Gibbon but this is a stretch) habitat which in turn means Africa or South East Asia, or of course any other regions where they h.ave fossil record or their existence

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