The only new poll this week has been another 52-48 result from Essential Research, but it’s been enough to make a measurable difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. In particular, it’s brought it into line with the poll aggregations of Kevin Bonham, Mark the Ballot and Phantom Trend, which as of last week were between 0.4% and 0.6% better for Labor than BludgerTrack. That distinction has been all but erased by a 0.3% movement on two-party preferred, which shows up in the seat projection as extra seats for Labor in Victoria and Queensland. There are no new numbers for leadership ratings this week.
Other news:
• Overwhelming support for constitutional recognition of indigenous Australians was recorded by a Newspoll survey published in The Weekend Australian on Saturday, with 63% in favour and only 19% opposed.
• The Canberra Times has reported results of ReachTEL poll of 1446 respondents, conducted for Unions ACT, which includes a question on voting intention for the next territory election, to be held in October next year. After exclusion of the undecided, it has Labor on 41.5%, Liberal on 35.7% and the Greens on 16.5%, which is rather bad news for the Liberals given the results in 2012 were 38.9% for both Labor and Liberal and 10.7% for the Greens.
• Antony Green has weighed in on the stalled Senate reform process with two pieces, one considering the lessons to be drawn from New South Wales, where a system much like that proposed by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters is already in place for the state upper house, and another on the likely impact of the proposal for the various parties. The basic thesis of the latter is that the Senate would remain outside the control of any one party in all but exceptional circumstances, since this is a legacy of the increase in the size of parliament in 1984 and the routine of half-Senate elections for six rather than five members per state. However, the balance of power would more often be held exclusively by the Greens, unless the change caused the currently disparate micro-party vote to consolidate by some manner of merged entity. Putting his wonk hat on, Antony recommends adjusting the quota for election at each step of the count in the former article, rather than leaving it fixed at the number of votes divided by the number of seats plus one.
• A Liberal Party preselection ballot for Indi will be held on Sunday. Sophie Mirabella is again hoping to contest the seat she lost to independent Cathy McGowan in September 2013, but faces opposition from Kevin Ekendahl, a Wodonga businessman who has previously been a candidate for Melbourne Ports, and Andrew Walpole, an anaesthetist.
• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has set the ball rolling on two inquiries, the more interesting of which will consider “current rules and practices in relation to campaign activities in the vicinity of polling places”. The other is on the delivery of electoral and civics education, in schools and at Parliament House.
• My subscriber-only contributions to Crikey over the past week have included one on the Northern Territory redistribution, a subject made more interesting than usual by claims of political interference and the resignation of a Country Liberal Party MP whose seat was abolished, and one on Bill Shorten coming out for fixed four-year terms.
UPDATE (Morgan state SMS polls): Morgan has published its monthly SMS polls of state voting intention, from samples ranging from 1270 in New South Wales to 333 in Tasmania. They record a small amount of Mike Baird’s post-election spike coming off, but with the Coalition still recording a 57-43 lead (down from 58.5=41.5 last month); the Victorian Newspoll result more-or-less corroborated with a Labor lead of 56.5-43.5 (steady); Labor moving into the lead in Queensland but still looking a bit shaky (51.5-48.5, after they trailed 52-48 last month); the Barnett government taking a 52.5-47.5 lead in Western Australia, after trailing 51-49 last time; the Liberals 51-49 ahead in South Australia, up from 50.5-49.5 (remembering the Liberals did in fact win the two-party vote 53-47 at last year’s election, but still lost); and primary votes of 42.5% (up 1.5%) for the Liberals, 33% (up 2.5%) for Labor and 20% (up 0.5%) for the Greens, which as ever feels too low for the Liberals.
briefly @ 893
A number of people have picked up this absurdity. However, with the Press Corpse groupthink running in Abbott’s favour at the moment, few have taken up the obvious comparison. The groupthink is everything. Only a few months ago the Press Corpse was going hyper about Abbott’s references to a holocaust and to Goebbels, far more minor transgressions against decency than what Captain Chaos is doing now.
[Had a flick through the Australian today]
Flick is not precisely the word I would use to describe how Rupert’s vanity project should be treated – except at a distance.
[The Bob Ellis point about the time that has elapsed since the last terrorist fatality on Australian shores (over 100 years) should be picked up.]
… and put in the trash.
Maybe Bob could pen a note to the relatives of those killed in the Hilton hotel bombing and let them know the good news.
John Reidy
[Does this mean other ex-cons say someone like Alan Bond can not longer be interviewed by the media?]
Very good point!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximilien_Robespierre
An original head roller..
[898
TrueBlueAussie
They need to reduce their letter delivery business to deliver once a week and increase spending in their parcel business where they could be the best parcel delivery business in the country if only they tried…]
You could also climb into a box and then mail yourself to the South Pole.
TBA
You haven’t answered my question.
You stated with authority that Shorten will be rolled today. Now you state Abbott has 14 months to ‘do Shorten slowly’.
My friends your so called authoratitive sources have failed you AGAIN!
Sack them.
John Reidy@897
I guarantee Alan Bond will not be interviewed by the media. 😐
shellbell@903
So which terrorist group claimed credit for that?
None! It was a criminal act.
It is good to see that the Victorian Farmers Federation have got stuck into the Neanderthal climate denying faction in the Liberal Party.
If any journo could get an interview with Alan Bond now it would be a world wide sensation.
One of the reasons why Shorten is supposed to be ‘under pressure’ or ’embattled ‘ is because of the failed attack in QT on the asylum seeker boats payments.
While the tactics in QT may have been botched, this issue is as bad or even worse for the government.
As mentioned above I don’t know why the press gallery puts so much emphasis on QT she it has clearly degenerated, as mentioned above it didn’t help the previous Labor government.
[TBA,
Abbott has 14 Months to do Shorten slowly
Shorten isn’t holding up to the pressure as we have saw in the last few weeks]
A few days ago I might have been convinced that while Abbott is a useless PM, his boxing style was good at the political stitch-up. The attacks on Shorten all looked telegraphed, and not very subtle… but it seemed like a plan.
Then reality kicked in, he was distracted by the ABC, and reminded me he’s more “punchy” than cunning.
Abbott has 14 months to do Shorten with punch drunk lurching. Good luck!
[So why is Labor in deep doo doo?
Simple answer to that Vic is that they are not, but the Libs and their media running dogs would REALLY like them to be.]
The latter comment is probably true BUT nothing quite matches the blowtorch effect of an election campaign – the combination of everything ramping up and public attention as well.
I am not convinced that Bill Shorten really is travelling that well and like or not a lot people out there really do despise him. Unfortunately for Bill, he is a bit like Kevin, his hunger for the job of PM is a touch too obvious. His second problem is that he comes across as passionless – not driven by the ideals.
901
TPOF
The role of the media is problematic. At a certain level, nearly everything published evaporates as quickly as it’s propagated. Material is obsolete as soon as it appears; an obsolescence that is ensured by the immediate publication of some other phantom-news.
People have learned that it’s all titillation – that it is really just a kind of endlessly inflated, psycho-sport or even a kind of political porn. It is only display – even a kind of self display by politicians and exhibitionist-journalists. Most people cannot take it seriously even if they are momentarily drawn to it.
Nearly everything is discounted. Only fragments of meaning are retained. This means everything has to be fathomed as cultural garbage sorting.
I had a friend who claims he shared a cell with Tim Anderson. Based on what he said Anderson probably had nothing to do with the bombing.
TBA
[Whats with all this silly talk about an “Early Election”.
The earliest an “Early Election” could be held for both houses in 6th August 2016]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_dissolution
Seriously, acquaint yourself with FACTS before you attempt to try and seem smarter than everyone else! (Something you repeatedly fail at)
“I guarantee Alan Bond will not be interviewed by the media.”
I don’t know… I reckon Rupert could arrange an exclusive through a mutual contact.
And FWIW, I doubt an early election will actually happen. I think it’s still in the best political interest of Abbott to wait until next year and have a regular house + half senate election.
bbs @ 914
Unfortunately for Bill, he is a bit like Kevin, his hunger for the job of PM is a touch too obvious.]
Considering that Kevin won an election from Opposition in buoyant economic circumstances against a politically seasoned and astute PM, compared to whom the current incumbent is not a politician’s bootlace, that sounds like an endorsement, not a criticism.
There has not been a first term government – possibly any government – that has less to show in achievements after nearly 2 years in power and more to show in incompetence than this one. There is so much to pick off in a full-on election campaign, that Labor’s biggest risk is not being able to focus on a handful of killer issues.
TrueBlueAussie@896
Change of tune – after stuffing up earlier this week –
[ TrueBlueAussie
Posted Sunday, June 21, 2015 at 5:44 pm | Permalink
This is the last week of Shorten folks.
Say your Goodbyes, Farewells and God Blesses]
I’m not sure Abbott has any Double D issues worth persuing with an election.
Even a few weeks ago, I would have thought talk of an early election was just fanciful but it seems much more possible. It would be just one more example of his ‘crash or crash through’ modus operandi. One assumes that TA would go the DD option – or would he prefer the separate elections permanent election cycle route?
[“Change of tune – after stuffing up earlier this week -“]
The problem for the Labor Party is that Shorten… with the help of one Kevin Rudd PM in a secret deal as seen on the Killing Season, has made himself effective dictator of the Labor Party with a leadership spill now very difficult to perform.
[Considering that Kevin won an election from Opposition in buoyant economic circumstances against a politically seasoned and astute PM, ]
TPOF, you forget a few obvious factors.
– The ‘Your Rights at Work’ campaign over Workchoices very much resonated.
– The changes to some social benefits really hurt in some of the Liberal marginals.
– Rudd could provide a clear alternative on both that and Climate Change.
– John Howard was looking seriously long in the tooth. He muffed his succession planning and there was mood for a change.
[And FWIW, I doubt an early election will actually happen. I think it’s still in the best political interest of Abbott to wait until next year and have a regular house + half senate election.]
I’ve never been convinced either. I can’t figure out how they would frame it.
From memory it started as one of those “senior LNP sources” stories. They probably felt, with a bit of focus, it would be just the thing to “concentrate the minds of the voters”.
It’s worked so well that recently Shorten is the one talking it up, while Abbot is hosing it down.
[There has not been a first term government – possibly any government – that has less to show in achievements after nearly 2 years in power]
They would argue that repeal of the Carbon Tax and MRRT are achievements. Which in a political sense they probably are albeit in a terribly negative way.
Beneath all the bullying, Abbott hasn’t got the ticket to go to an early election, IMO.
Aaaargh! Try ticker, not ticket.
[Unfortunately for Bill,… his hunger for the job of PM is a touch too obvious]
So someone offers himself as Oppn Leader when there’s a 50/50 chance of being thumped in the Polls? How can you be ‘too hungry’? There are a number of others behind him who could have come forward. Someone said the other day, ‘if you go into Parliament you think you’re at least Ministerial material, and probably PM’.
TrueBlueAussie@924
The ‘problem’ is you put both feet in your big mouth and got it wRONg.
Again.
[TrueBlueAussie
Posted Friday, June 26, 2015 at 1:15 pm | Permalink
“Change of tune – after stuffing up earlier this week -”
The problem for the Labor Party is that Shorten… with the help of one Kevin Rudd PM in a secret deal as seen on the Killing Season, has made himself effective dictator of the Labor Party with a leadership spill now very difficult to perform. ]
So what exactly has changed since last week?
[I am not convinced that Bill Shorten really is travelling that well and like or not a lot people out there really do despise him.]
From what i hear some Labor people in North and Western Melbourne don’t like him. Dunno enough about it myself, its just gossip really. I don’t think that much of him myself, couldn’t even listen to that whole speech everyone here was raving about the other day. I agree with the criticism about him not providing enough opposition to stupid national security stupidity and accept he’s never gonna provide what I want wrt asylum seekers. I think national security overreach is something someone needs to make a stand on. Protecting people is one thing, but protecting the institutions of democracy should be as high a priority as keeping people safe from percieved threats imo. Thats just me tho.
If I try and look at thinks more objectively he seems to be doing ok, really. Not setting the world on fire, but I don’t see why he would be in trouble. If you listen to what he says and ignore the media spin the idea he is in trouble makes no sense. He seems competent, reflective and capable of dealing with things without the bluster, sound and fury that Abbott presents. i actually prefer it when the people in charge don’t lose the plot. When they remain calm and focused.
The last opposition leader that seemed calm and exhibited some self control was Brendon Nelson. And he was on a hiding to nothing. I don’t think the dislike of Shorten is enough to cost him an election. That is all down to Abbott and how much he continues to fuck up (and maybe whether or not there’s a actual terrorist atrocity or massive bushfire in the lead up to an election.)
917
That is the earliest a half-Senate election can be held. So far 30/32 (depending on whether or not you count the 1949 and 1984 expansion of parliament elections as half-Senate elections, despite more than half the seats being up for election) of Australia`s 42 HoR elections have been held with half-Senate elections. Of the other 10, 5 have been DD and 5 House only (excluding Senate by-elections held at the same time under the old section 15). There have been 3 half-Senate only elections (excluding any HoR by-elections held at the same time and the special elections in WA 2014 and SA in 1906) as well (with the 1974 DD starting as a 4th half-Senate only election).
A DD may be possible, if there is a trigger (there probably is but the GG could reject it on old Senate and time lapsed grounds).
A HoR only election would look extremely cynical, unless the government lost its majority.
good old bill should stand down gracefully, admit not up to it, and no division … one contender … consensus
noone is public (unlike here) likes shorten – never have – not a good thing
given up on the KF thread – will someone say why any one in LP went on the show??? how did this demonstrate fresh discipline team? why didn’t shorten pull rug on the program?
Doubtless Abbott and BBishop are just itching to follow the lead of this little tinpot republic:
[The president of Nauru has attacked foreign media organisations as he confirmed three MPs faced criminal charges after a protest outside the island nation’s parliament.
The government has accused members of the opposition of an orchestrated campaign to disrupt parliament and the passage of the budget.]
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/26/three-nauruan-mps-face-charges-after-protest-outside-parliament
I had to check today’s date when I logged in again.
Embattled shorten Bob Ellis terrorists and Hilton Hotel bombing a terrorist act covered before.
This stopped when latest polls came out showing the LNP had fallen back to trend and the 50/50 was an outlier for whatever reason,
This time however we have an attack on the ABC its very independence in a media landscape that is already heavily biased to the right.
Then Abbott using out of date terror maps for a photo op to use national security to bolster his tough guy image.
Voters are not impressed by these things. So that means Abbott has to work extra hard to make up ground in the polls.
Abbott is in the Gillard polls are not moving territory. The media megaphone on his side will not work as well. The Newscorp headlines only work in the morning now there is no MX. The websites even of Newscorpse have poltics well down as that gets less clicks.
Abbott really has not much positive go go on and the economic bad news is still majorly to come. Especially if this deadlock over Greece continues and Greece exits causing uncertaintly. Lost of bear markets for the rest of the year.
[Shorten… with the help of one Kevin Rudd PM in a secret deal as seen on the Killing Season, has made himself effective dictator of the Labor Party ]
As usual, TBA has it arse-about. Kevin wanted the new leadership rules and asked Shorten to back him. Kevin expected to win the PM ship against Abbott, and to know he’d be safe against rebellion. It just happens that Shorten is the beneficiary.
Blackburn,
I think that is where Shortens appearance at the RC will be key.
Given the current evidence it appears he doesn’t have much to worry about , so if he can turn this to his advantage and get across what has driven him, re workers entitlements etc. then he will be in a much better position.
If he flounders, particularly if there is no evidence of malfeasance then there is a problem.
He will have to cut through what will be depicted by the Government, the press gallery and the state media (new term for News Corp).
I imagine the press gallery will complete their write ups next week while on the mid winter break.
[Jim Chalmers MP
Unbelievable: Tsy officials just confirmed Hockey hasn’t asked for any work to be done on impact of fed tax policy on #housingaffordability]
Regarding Shorten.
He gave a speech at ACOSS today. While I have had my tv on no highlights. Bit hard to cut through on MSM when not being covered.
A suggestion for Labor as industry policy, from The Conversation:
[When it comes to fostering innovation and the commercialisation of world class research, there is something the United States has that we lack….
For dozens of Australian researchers returning to the country after working in the US, the lack of an equivalent to the US’s Small Business Innovation Research SBIR scheme here reflects a major hole in our innovation ecosystem…
The SBIR scheme triggered a fundamental shift in attitudes in American universities when it was introduced in 1982… before SBIR, the Dean of a faculty would ask young academics how many publications were going to come out of their latest piece of research.
Thirty years on, the Dean is now asking whether the research can be converted into a product or service, and whether they should spin it out of the university to access SBIR funding. It has been a profound change of mindset.
]
There’s an old saying in academic circles, “publish or perish”. In some parts of the world this was updated to “demonstrate or perish”. Recently, colleagues from major Us and European institutions have been moved on to “implement or persish.”
A quick look at how the ARC allocates its funds to grants or how Australian Unis administer promotions would tell you that we are stuck a few decades in the past.
TBA is a continuing delight.
Yesterday he posted a claim to do with a appointment of a Fair Work Commissioner (and even a not useful ‘link’).
Claim wrong. Just made up crap.
@abcnewsAdelaide: Optus and Telstra admit sharing customer phone numbers with third-party websites. http://t.co/s2PPLCsAGB http://t.co/mxCZHUBLH8
Indigenous recognition.
[The July 6 meeting is crucial. It will gauge the potential for compromise. But there is also a risk of it becoming unstuck if the diverging views proved too polarising. These views include Pat Dodson’s desire for a prohibition on discrimination to be written into the constitution, and Noel Pearson’s proposal to include an advisory body in the constitution, with a declaration of recognition outside the constitution.
Abbott has invited Shorten to the meeting but has refused to have the Greens, which is short-sighted (given the government hopes for more co-operation with them under Richard Di Natale) and somewhat mean spirited.]
http://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-winter-risks-are-greater-for-shorten-than-abbott-43848
My take on this week: the LNP got over excited because they finally passed one budget measure after 18 months,
This is a actual “remedial – dunce cap” level of performance in the old money, but they’re back slapping like monkeys.
The think their union kangaroo court commission has Shorto in the bin – but there’s actually no evidence of that at this point.
Polls: only evidence we have is a move to ALP this week. LOL.
Lets see how Abbott’s evidence-free recovery goes next week.
On the controversy of letting Zack Mallah on ABC’s QandA, I found this interview/profile on Zack Malllah from Septemeber 2012 by… The Australian.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/immigration/rebel-urges-muslims-to-wage-a-jihad-of-peace/story-fn9hm1gu-1226477622326
Google the name if you can’t get past the paywall.
The only reason there would be an election soon is because Abbott is insane.
No reasonable person would go to the polls 5 points behind the Opposition, with nothing accomplished for all the suffering.
An election campaign that was designed to be all about boats and national security would fizzle out in a few days.
What’s Abbott got to show for all the national security guff?
* Man Monis was ignored without further scrutiny by the very department consigned the job of keeping tabs on these types. No matter that Monis was a nutter. He turned nasty in the end.
* They haven’t found MH-370, despite all the crap about its discovery being imminent over a year ago.
* Despite the “elite” SAS being ready at a second’s notice to invade Eastern Ukraine, we were seen off the crash site of MH-17.
* Putin was not shirtfronted. Instead, Abbott gave him a koala bear.
* The more flags Abbott uses as props, the worse his poll position becomes. Slowly at the moment, but significant over time. Another few months of this steady creep back for Labor and they’ll be in a position to win by 30 seats.
* They paid people smugglers cash for boats. Only the hardest of hard heads would think this was honourable, ethical or even smart.
* Bill Shorten is said to be under pressure, but if he was, he got out of it easily. This “under pressure” meme is a confection of the Ppess Gallery, but just because they want it to be true, or have predicted it, this doesn’t mean it is true.
* The nation’s trade and economic performance, including employment, continues to tank. Apart from dodgy Harvey Norman anecdotal evidence, it doesn’t matter how many chain saws, power tools or iPhones you snap up before July 1, if there isn’t any work cutting down trees, if there are no houses to construct and if there’s no customers to ring, then it’s pretty pointless.
* And then there’s the Budget, now a multiple of what it would have been under Labor. They actually GAVE AWAY over $15 billion – to the Reserve Bank and to polluters – before they even looked at the books. Now they want to give away more to wealthy superannuants, and at the same time, take from pensioners.
* They have closed down industries on an… uhm… industrial scale. Motor vehicles, alternative energy, communications have all been set back 50 years.
* They are making ideological war on the well-regarded ABC. Ditto for the Human Rights Commission and anyone else who doesn’t agree with them.
* The hallmark of what journalists are calling “Abbott’s best fortnight” has been typical Abbott-inspired chaos and aggravation. The country is in an uproar over very, very little. Every day there is some new front opened up in the culture wars. Abbott is never happy unless he is throwing his weight around, telling someone what to do. But the problem is his schemes are half-baked, amateur brain-farts, simplistic in concept and almost impossible in practicality. Everyone who’s ever employed him, or otherwise given him a task to accomplish has sacked him, or pushed him sideways, glad to be rid of his destabilizing presence. “In confusion is profit” is no way to run a country, and one day soon the country will have had a gutful of constant fear, loathing and terror.
* On “best weeks” remember the last two? We had one purportedly after Abbott went to Indonesia and China, and the other after last year’s Budget. THEY went well, didn’t they? Forget about “Best weeks”. They are a conceit of the Press Gallery, who think Question Time is run specifically for their entertainment.
Flags, phoney terror alerts, staged ASIO briefings (with Washington Post maps on the walls for decoration), culture wars, attacks on statutory officers just doing their job, the Abbott Gorilla Strut and Bill Shorten’s confected travails do not put food on the table for unemployed families. They do not build houses, or create new industries we so vitally need. They don’t fight Global Warming. They won’t stop an El Nino drought. Or bring electricity prices down.
They only serve to fill acres of newsprint in the Daily Telegraph and the political columns of other papers. They are not real, except in that “Reality TV” way, inside the Beltway where Group Think reigns supreme.
Abbott has f*cked up EVERYTHING he has ever been involved in. The nation is no exception. And like all his previous supervisors and employers in the past, eventually the punters will wake up to him.
In breaking news trolls just make sh1t up and are almost as comfortable with lies and inconsistency as our idiot child PM.
Has the LNP become the Woolworths of Australian politics?….just a thought