BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains a mild improving trend for Labor, albeit that it does so on the strength of a single opinion poll for the week.

The only new poll this week has been another 52-48 result from Essential Research, but it’s been enough to make a measurable difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. In particular, it’s brought it into line with the poll aggregations of Kevin Bonham, Mark the Ballot and Phantom Trend, which as of last week were between 0.4% and 0.6% better for Labor than BludgerTrack. That distinction has been all but erased by a 0.3% movement on two-party preferred, which shows up in the seat projection as extra seats for Labor in Victoria and Queensland. There are no new numbers for leadership ratings this week.

Other news:

• Overwhelming support for constitutional recognition of indigenous Australians was recorded by a Newspoll survey published in The Weekend Australian on Saturday, with 63% in favour and only 19% opposed.

• The Canberra Times has reported results of ReachTEL poll of 1446 respondents, conducted for Unions ACT, which includes a question on voting intention for the next territory election, to be held in October next year. After exclusion of the undecided, it has Labor on 41.5%, Liberal on 35.7% and the Greens on 16.5%, which is rather bad news for the Liberals given the results in 2012 were 38.9% for both Labor and Liberal and 10.7% for the Greens.

• Antony Green has weighed in on the stalled Senate reform process with two pieces, one considering the lessons to be drawn from New South Wales, where a system much like that proposed by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters is already in place for the state upper house, and another on the likely impact of the proposal for the various parties. The basic thesis of the latter is that the Senate would remain outside the control of any one party in all but exceptional circumstances, since this is a legacy of the increase in the size of parliament in 1984 and the routine of half-Senate elections for six rather than five members per state. However, the balance of power would more often be held exclusively by the Greens, unless the change caused the currently disparate micro-party vote to consolidate by some manner of merged entity. Putting his wonk hat on, Antony recommends adjusting the quota for election at each step of the count in the former article, rather than leaving it fixed at the number of votes divided by the number of seats plus one.

• A Liberal Party preselection ballot for Indi will be held on Sunday. Sophie Mirabella is again hoping to contest the seat she lost to independent Cathy McGowan in September 2013, but faces opposition from Kevin Ekendahl, a Wodonga businessman who has previously been a candidate for Melbourne Ports, and Andrew Walpole, an anaesthetist.

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has set the ball rolling on two inquiries, the more interesting of which will consider “current rules and practices in relation to campaign activities in the vicinity of polling places”. The other is on the delivery of electoral and civics education, in schools and at Parliament House.

• My subscriber-only contributions to Crikey over the past week have included one on the Northern Territory redistribution, a subject made more interesting than usual by claims of political interference and the resignation of a Country Liberal Party MP whose seat was abolished, and one on Bill Shorten coming out for fixed four-year terms.

UPDATE (Morgan state SMS polls): Morgan has published its monthly SMS polls of state voting intention, from samples ranging from 1270 in New South Wales to 333 in Tasmania. They record a small amount of Mike Baird’s post-election spike coming off, but with the Coalition still recording a 57-43 lead (down from 58.5=41.5 last month); the Victorian Newspoll result more-or-less corroborated with a Labor lead of 56.5-43.5 (steady); Labor moving into the lead in Queensland but still looking a bit shaky (51.5-48.5, after they trailed 52-48 last month); the Barnett government taking a 52.5-47.5 lead in Western Australia, after trailing 51-49 last time; the Liberals 51-49 ahead in South Australia, up from 50.5-49.5 (remembering the Liberals did in fact win the two-party vote 53-47 at last year’s election, but still lost); and primary votes of 42.5% (up 1.5%) for the Liberals, 33% (up 2.5%) for Labor and 20% (up 0.5%) for the Greens, which as ever feels too low for the Liberals.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,106 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. So we discover that all Barnaby’s huffing and puffing about climate change effects being just normal weather patterns is because he’s listening to the cattlemen and not the fruit and vegetable growers. Someone needs to define ‘agriculture’ for him.

  3. [922
    TrueBlueAussie

    I’m not sure Abbott has any Double D issues worth persuing with an election.]

    There won’t be an election because the fool knows he would lose.

  5. [ Polls: only evidence we have is a move to ALP this week. LOL.

    Lets see how Abbott’s evidence-free recovery goes next week. ]

    Well….with Parliament not sitting if they keep Abbott out of view or better yet overseas then they may just get a small move towards them?

  6. BBS @ 925

    I didn’t forget any of that – I was being deliberately simplistic because I thought that your view did not pick up the complexities that will surround the next election campaign.

    As for ‘achievements’ in the first two years, those are not really achievements because they never really bothered many people, despite the Liberals convincing themselves that they did. The two ‘achievements’ I would point to are stopping reporting of any boats and asylum seekers arriving by sea and the free trade agreements. From a vote-winning perspective, the first is a two-edged sword; the public don’t reward the government for doing it, but will punish the government if it starts to fall over. On the second one, very few people think about free trade agreements and those that do see them as a threat to their existing jobs not an opportunity to get new ones.

  7. Bludgers I need a word for that feeling you get when you see someone at work who you don’t know well but you’ve always had positive professional interactions and you are kinda glad they weren’t made redundant earlier in the week!

  8. [Had the Abbott government simply held government spending to the 2012-13 level, the budget was poised to return to surplus in 2016-17, as outlined in the pre-election fiscal outlook, and government debt would be approximately $45bn lower than it is today.
    …
    Perhaps most importantly, the Coalition’s debt and deficit rhetoric is factually flawed and unfortunately is rarely scrutinised by the media and other commentators whenever it is raised as an issue by which to judge the performance of the previous government.

    There is no doubt the debt issue had an impact on the electorate when it cast its vote, even though the Coalition was embarrassingly wrong on the issue.

    It is also relevant to note the abject failure of the Abbott government to act on its concerns, however misguided they are, to halt the rise in debt.

    The Abbott government has not only given up on debt and deficit reduction, but has done a U-turn that has a framework of large deficits and rising debt as it strives to buy favour with the electorate. It is extraordinary that very few people have noticed, notwithstanding the $2bn of new debt the government has accumulated each and every week since it was elected.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/26/abbott-has-given-up-on-debt-and-deficit-reduction-but-few-have-noticed

  9. [922
    TrueBlueAussie

    I’m not sure Abbott has any Double D issues worth persuing with an election.]

    There’s one other thing we can say about Abbott. People are not indifferent to him. So when voters indicate they will vote against him, they are generally very firm on that. The next election will not be about Shorten. It will be about Tony Abbott – about what a uselessly incompetent and disastrously dishonest and malevolent scrapper he actually is.

    The question will be – should we re-elect such a vile and duplicitous head-roller?

    The chances are the public will say no…and he is already well aware of it.

  10. Hopefully the police and prosecution pursue the (alleged) terrorists sending threats of political violence to the ABC with the full force of the law

  12. 960
    shiftaling
    [Posted Friday, June 26, 2015 at 2:04 pm | PERMALINK
    Hopefully the police and prosecution pursue the (alleged) terrorists sending threats of political violence to the ABC with the full force of the law]

    Bingo!!

  13. [Bludgers I need a word for that feeling you get when you see someone at work who you don’t know well but you’ve always had positive professional interactions and you are kinda glad they weren’t made redundant earlier in the week!]

    Relief.

    Because you are still there to notice they are still there.

  14. [
    AFL: Dank banned for life.]

    Lucky he didn’t actually provide banned substances to Essendon imagine what they would have done #AFLlesscrediblethanTony

  15. kj @ 932

    [The problem for the Labor Party is that Shorten… with the help of one Kevin Rudd PM in a secret deal as seen on the Killing Season, has made himself effective dictator of the Labor Party with a leadership spill now very difficult to perform.

    So what exactly has changed since last week?]

    Of course the troll would not have recognised that this has been the situation since 2013, but I’m gobsmacked that supposedly reputable news organisations, such as Abbott’s ABC, are talking about Labor Leadersh!t as though this rule did not exist and if they did not report every Porky Pynenuts comment from his ‘sources’ in the Labor Party they will be caught flat-footed like they were in 2010.

  16. [Bludgers I need a word for that feeling you get when you see someone at work who you don’t know well but you’ve always had positive professional interactions and you are kinda glad they weren’t made redundant earlier in the week!
    Relief.
    Because you are still there to notice they are still there.]

    Relief is there definitely but there is a positive less selfish feeling mixing with it!

  18. guytaur @ 941

    [Regarding Shorten.

    He gave a speech at ACOSS today. While I have had my tv on no highlights. Bit hard to cut through on MSM when not being covered.]

    Like Shorten or not, this has been the problem with every Opposition leader (from both sides) in my lifetime. Abbott dealt with the problem by never bothering to present any policy. But Jesus Christ would not get cut through if he led an opposition and tried to get the Sermon on the Mount reported.

  19. BB @ 948

    [The only reason there would be an election soon is because Abbott is insane.]

    What I’ve been saying for months. The only reason why it is even being discussed is because a lot of us think Abbott is insane.

  22. ABC Local Radio did a take on the ABC as a ‘state broadcaster’ earlier this afternoon, complete with a happy, productive citizenry working to the glory of the great nation and the ‘Great Leader’. Ridicule is a great weapon, as Thomas Jeffersen said the only weapon against the absurd.

  25. [No one cares about us, the people.]

    And in further startling news, it has been reported that the earth circles the sun and not the other way around.

  26. There will be on-going election speculation for the simple reason that Abbott is no good at administration or policy development. His long suit in politics is campaigning. Three word slogan campaigning. Make stuff up campaigning. Muck-raking opponent campaigning. Dumbing down campaigning. Flag-waving campaigning. Scaremongering campaigning. Rinse and repeat.

    As long as he has the backbench lined up behind him in their selfies he knows they think they know he is the Man.

  27. Four corners injunction ongoing in Supreme Court in Victoria.

    Hopefully it will fail and have the Barbara Streisand affect

  28. WeWant Paul #966
    “Glad for our continuing acquaintance.” or “Grateful for our continuing acquaintance.”

  30. [And in further startling news, it has been reported that the earth circles the sun and not the other way around.]
    Isn’t the jury still out on that?

  31. Re TPOF @968: if Newscorp had been operating in Judea around 30 AD, the Daily Rupert would have accused him of not being on Team Judea (critical of Temple authorities); being a communist (blessed be the poor…, driving the money lenders from the Temple); a terrorist (the moneylenders, Matthew 10:34 “…I come to bring a sword..”; a flaky hippy (“consider the lillies of the field…” – actuallly probably worse -a Green); ruining trade and encouraging ‘leaners’ (feeding the multitude)… The list is endless. It would have called for his arrest and crucifixion. Alan Jones would have been urging his listeners to the main square to call for the release of Barabas. As Jesus, ‘crucify him!”.

  33. Steve777

    For a long time – until it fell apart – I had a cartoon on my fridge of Jesus delivering the Sermon on the Mount, with the crowd muttering, “Wet!’ “Bleeding heart!” “Do gooder!”

  34. [ BK

    Posted Friday, June 26, 2015 at 2:42 pm | Permalink

    And in further startling news, it has been reported that the earth circles the sun and not the other way around.

    Isn’t the jury still out on that?
    ]

    ….. however tough our lives are – hey – we get a FREE 30 km/s (67,000 mph ) trip around the sun every 365.256 days , during which time Earth travels 940 million kilometers (584 million miles).[…. try getting that at Flight Centre !!!!!

  35. Thanks BB above well put.
    Goes into detail what I was thinking.

    Certainly oppositions have trouble cutting though.
    However I am sure Hawke, as the messiah would have got the sermon on the mount reported.

  36. We need a tax on space travel. Annual tax 67,000kms @ $0.01 per km for every Aussie. That would pay a few bills.

  37. Just on Double Dissolution triggers, there are quite a number which are “half way there”. That is, been rejected once, waiting to be reintroduced

    http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Statistics/Senate_StatsNet/legislation/triggers44

    Now these are not MickeyMouse policy areas. Higher Education, FairWork Act changes And a swag of Budget measures.

    So why haven’t these been reintroduced to stack up a pile of triggers? Possibilities are:

    1. The Abbott government is indolent.
    2. They don’t want to have serious DD triggers.

    In the last few months they have wasted months of Parliament’s time on stupid terrorism wedge antics, rather than pursue this lengthy list of rejected legislation.

  38. Stating something that is commonsense never gets on the tv news. That is why Abbott always gets cut through, his daily statements are plainly ridiculous & therefore noteworthy. Shorten will always find it difficult to battle against a human headline.

  40. [Charlie Edwards

    Posted Friday, June 26, 2015 at 3:06 pm | Permalink

    Stating something that is commonsense never gets on the tv news. That is why Abbott always gets cut through, his daily statements are plainly ridiculous & therefore noteworthy. Shorten will always find it difficult to battle against a human headline. ]

    “Many journalists now are no more than channelers and echoers of what George Orwell called the ‘official truth’. They simply cipher and transmit lies. It really grieves me that so many of my fellow journalists can be so manipulated that they become really what the French describe as ‘functionaires’, functionaries, not journalists. Many journalists become very defensive when you suggest to them that they are anything but impartial and objective. The problem with those words ‘impartiality’ and ‘objectivity’ is that they have lost their dictionary meaning. They’ve been taken over… [they] now mean the establishment point of view… ― John Pilger

  41. Oh dear , a shed load of Tony’s Tradies will be very unhappy.

    [Hundreds of thousands of building industry contractors who may have dodged their GST or income-tax obligations have been hit with $2.3 billion in tax bills.

    Reported less income

    There were also 53,000 contractors that had lodged 2012-13 tax returns but appeared to have reported less income in their tax returns than they had received.

    And 84,000 contractors without an active GST registration had been reported to have received payments that included GST totaling $426 million]

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/contractors-in-the-cash-economy-get-hit-with-23-billion-in-tax-bills-20150626-ghyfd3.html

  42. Re Sprocket @987 – also:

    3. The Government does not want to fight an election on any of the blocked measures, which are for the most part ballot-box poison and reminders of broken promises.

    The Government is hoping to win a second term on the basis of being the Opposition to the previous Government, wedging the current Opposition on trumped up issues like terrorism, boats and ‘union thuggery’. Even with Rupert running interference, Abbott doesn’t want the punters reminded of the 2014 budget during an election campaign. He is hoping to sneak them through a more friendly Senate after an election win.

  47. Opposition Leader Bill Shorten says the Prime Minister went too far when he said “heads should roll” at the ABC.

    Tony Abbott made the comment after the ABC allowed a man who threatened to kill ASIO officers to ask a question on its Q&A program on Monday night.

    Mr Abbott described Zaky Mallah’s appearance on the program as a “betrayal” and questioned “whose side” the ABC was on when it came to discussing national security.

  49. [China To Philippines: Stop “Roping In” Other Countries In Sea Standoff

    Three weeks ago, Philippine President Benigno Aquino “went there” when, in a speech to Japanese lawmakers, the self-proclaimed “amateur student of history” compared China’s land reclamation efforts in the South China Sea to the Nazi occupation of Czechoslovakia.

    This prompted Beijing to advise “certain people” in the Philippines to “repent” and “stop their provocations.”

    Aquino would do neither.

    …China’s military on Thursday accused the Philippines of trying to “rope in” other countries to the dispute over ownership of the South China Sea and stir regional tension after Japan joined a military drill with the Philippines.

    “This way of doing things will not have a beneficial effect on the situation in the South China Sea.” ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-25/china-philippines-stop-roping-other-countries-sea-standoff

  50. [The ABC has increased security at its offices around the country after receiving more than 1,000 complaints about the Q&A program.]

    I wonder if there were any about Ciobo.

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