BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains a mild improving trend for Labor, albeit that it does so on the strength of a single opinion poll for the week.

The only new poll this week has been another 52-48 result from Essential Research, but it’s been enough to make a measurable difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. In particular, it’s brought it into line with the poll aggregations of Kevin Bonham, Mark the Ballot and Phantom Trend, which as of last week were between 0.4% and 0.6% better for Labor than BludgerTrack. That distinction has been all but erased by a 0.3% movement on two-party preferred, which shows up in the seat projection as extra seats for Labor in Victoria and Queensland. There are no new numbers for leadership ratings this week.

Other news:

• Overwhelming support for constitutional recognition of indigenous Australians was recorded by a Newspoll survey published in The Weekend Australian on Saturday, with 63% in favour and only 19% opposed.

• The Canberra Times has reported results of ReachTEL poll of 1446 respondents, conducted for Unions ACT, which includes a question on voting intention for the next territory election, to be held in October next year. After exclusion of the undecided, it has Labor on 41.5%, Liberal on 35.7% and the Greens on 16.5%, which is rather bad news for the Liberals given the results in 2012 were 38.9% for both Labor and Liberal and 10.7% for the Greens.

• Antony Green has weighed in on the stalled Senate reform process with two pieces, one considering the lessons to be drawn from New South Wales, where a system much like that proposed by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters is already in place for the state upper house, and another on the likely impact of the proposal for the various parties. The basic thesis of the latter is that the Senate would remain outside the control of any one party in all but exceptional circumstances, since this is a legacy of the increase in the size of parliament in 1984 and the routine of half-Senate elections for six rather than five members per state. However, the balance of power would more often be held exclusively by the Greens, unless the change caused the currently disparate micro-party vote to consolidate by some manner of merged entity. Putting his wonk hat on, Antony recommends adjusting the quota for election at each step of the count in the former article, rather than leaving it fixed at the number of votes divided by the number of seats plus one.

• A Liberal Party preselection ballot for Indi will be held on Sunday. Sophie Mirabella is again hoping to contest the seat she lost to independent Cathy McGowan in September 2013, but faces opposition from Kevin Ekendahl, a Wodonga businessman who has previously been a candidate for Melbourne Ports, and Andrew Walpole, an anaesthetist.

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has set the ball rolling on two inquiries, the more interesting of which will consider “current rules and practices in relation to campaign activities in the vicinity of polling places”. The other is on the delivery of electoral and civics education, in schools and at Parliament House.

• My subscriber-only contributions to Crikey over the past week have included one on the Northern Territory redistribution, a subject made more interesting than usual by claims of political interference and the resignation of a Country Liberal Party MP whose seat was abolished, and one on Bill Shorten coming out for fixed four-year terms.

UPDATE (Morgan state SMS polls): Morgan has published its monthly SMS polls of state voting intention, from samples ranging from 1270 in New South Wales to 333 in Tasmania. They record a small amount of Mike Baird’s post-election spike coming off, but with the Coalition still recording a 57-43 lead (down from 58.5=41.5 last month); the Victorian Newspoll result more-or-less corroborated with a Labor lead of 56.5-43.5 (steady); Labor moving into the lead in Queensland but still looking a bit shaky (51.5-48.5, after they trailed 52-48 last month); the Barnett government taking a 52.5-47.5 lead in Western Australia, after trailing 51-49 last time; the Liberals 51-49 ahead in South Australia, up from 50.5-49.5 (remembering the Liberals did in fact win the two-party vote 53-47 at last year’s election, but still lost); and primary votes of 42.5% (up 1.5%) for the Liberals, 33% (up 2.5%) for Labor and 20% (up 0.5%) for the Greens, which as ever feels too low for the Liberals.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,106 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. [
    I think it’s called empathy WWP.]

    You’d be surprised, oh maybe not, have rarely I’m accused of empathy!

  2. Somebody here earlier was whinging about the Daily Telegraph comparing Mark “Doofus” Dreyfus to Nazi propagandist Goebbels.

    This is not what actually happened.

    If you bother to actually read words and sentences rather than just look at pictures, you would discover it was actually Mark “Doofus” Dreyfus who called Abbott Goebbels and the Daily Tele is calling him out on it.

  3. victoria @995,

    The payment was made to the Victorian branch in 2007 and was declared.

    Bill Shorten was national secretary at that time but no longer Victorian secretary.


  4. [ Harold Wilson, not known as a great orator, was a genius at responding to hecklers. During a speech in the October 1974 election, when he was prime minister, a heckler started shouting and then threw an egg at him.

    With the messy liquid spreading across his suit Wilson declared, “During the 1970 election, after six years of a Labour government, someone threw an egg at me.

    Six months ago, during the February election campaign after three and half years of a Conservative government no one threw an egg.

    Now the gentleman being escorted from the hall has done so…

    Which goes to show you can only afford to throw eggs under a Labour government”.

    The crowd went wild with applause. ]

  5. I think this ABC witch hunt stunt is going to blow up his Abbott’s face. So can someone challenge for Abbott’s spot while parliament is not sitting? Cause I honestly think they only way the LNP has a shot at the next election is if they rope the dope. If Abbott gets his early election Labor would have a field day reminding voters of all his failings.

  6. shellbell

    “Maybe Bob could pen a note to the relatives of those killed in the Hilton hotel bombing and let them know the good news.”

    Are you saying it wasn’t the ASIO / Australian spy network that did the bombing / training exercise?

  7. TBA@1002: “If you bother to actually read words and sentences rather than just look at pictures, you would discover it was actually Mark “Doofus” Dreyfus who called Abbott Goebbels and the Daily Tele is calling him out on it.”

    Undoubtedly true, but to put the picture of a Jewish person and a leading Nazi next to each other on the same page is potentially offensive. And, while we’re at it, dressing their photo up in plain clothing and writing a single letter (albeit “D” rather than “J”) is sailing a bit close to the wind too.

    Anyway, we now discover that, not only couldn’t ASIO make up its collective mind as to whether its maps were classified or not, it also took the PM into a room in its HQ bedecked by an outdated Washington Post map.

    I personally am a big fan of what ASIO does, but that the whole idea of a politician photo-op in their headquarters could have been thought through a bit more carefully. And I reckon that they are thinking this same thing right now.

  8. Abbott

    “”The chances are the public will say no…and he is already well aware of it.””

    He only wants to get past the 6th Aug so he is on the Govt teat for life!.

  9. victoria,

    I should have added that it was invoiced as a donation and declared as a donation.

    All above board as far as I can see.

  10. @TBA/1002

    Daily hates labor, what else is new, why is Daily not going after the name calling by Abbott and Cronies?

  11. If our MSM were reporting the Sermon on the Mount it would be good news/bad news reports from News.

    The good news is there are only 10 Commandments. The bad news is that adultery is still in.

    Television reporting would demand Moses pick the best two Commandments for a 30 sec grab.

  12. Dutton says heads should roll at the ABC. Howard took a question from Hicks without payback on ABC.

    Immature, ignorant and small-minded Ministers we have now, and Abbott is teaching them.

  13. The TBA Cretin strikes again.

    [If you bother to actually read words and sentences rather than just look at pictures…]

    That would make me a disloyal Daily Telegraph reader wouldn’t it? Actually READING the article? Heaven forfend!

    I mean, doesn’t Photoshop make us strong? Wasn’t it invented so that graphic artists working for Australian traitor Murdoch (Rupert didn’t have to be told he’d lost his citizenship, he gave it up voluntarily, for money) could depict Labor politicians as Nazis?

    Sergeant Shultz, Colonel Klink, Stalin (OK, he wasn’t a Nazi, but youse know what I mean) we’ve seen Labor leaders caricatured as all of the above… why bother actually reading the text bit?

    TBA had better watch out. He’s unsound. Everyone knows cretin can’t read. They need pikkies to make the point.

    Shame on you TBA.

  14. You may or may not trust Massola’s assessment, but for what it’s worth…

    [Make no mistake, Abbott believes he can beat Shorten during the campaign proper. Abbott is a proven campaigner and Shorten demonstrably lacks the ability to deliver a cut-through line (no, zingers don’t count). He has told colleagues that if the Coalition is trailing in the polls 48 per cent to 52 per cent at the start of the campaign he will be able to haul in the Opposition Leader and win. He may well be right.]

  15. “Abbott, whose instincts are those of a mass circulation tabloid editor.”

    This isn’t a bad summation of where the ABC went wrong and played into Abbott’s hands.

    [This segued neatly to a potential second political dividend for Abbott: the wedging of Malcolm Turnbull. The Communications Minister can take the most credit for the moderating the citizenship laws introduced this week and making them less vulnerable to constitutional challenge, but he was now in a pickle.

    If Turnbull failed to match Abbott in the bellicose outrage stakes, he risked further alienating himself from those MPs who are every bit as gung-ho as the Prime Minister in labelling the ABC as un-Australian. If Turnbull went along with it, he would be marked down by those who consider him the most articulate voice of the middle ground.

    But Turnbull is not for wedging. Invited by the ABC’s Leigh Sales to agree with Abbott’s call for heads to roll, he replied: “I’ll decide what metaphors I use and the manner in which I use them.” Asked to endorse Abbott’s view that the ABC had betrayed the country, he said it had betrayed its own “very high standards”.]

  16. victoria / shellbell

    Then its an old story that went nowhere last time?
    Even off-shoot with Amanda Vanstone didn’t prove fruitful

  17. Sceptic

    Without being certain of the content of the four corners report. Not long ago at all

    [The dining room over-looking the boats bobbing in the Docklands’ marina was buzzing on the first evening in March last year.

    ”He’ll be the next premier,” whispered one of the Liberal Party donors as the special guest speaker, Victorian Planning Minister Matthew Guy, moved to the podium to address the $250 a head event.

    Federal Liberal MP Russell Broadbent watched on, having earlier acknowledged some of his old political backers in the room.]

  18. We have the prediction for the next poll from William. Same as the last. William you won’t be asked back; Rafael Epstein was so disappointed.

  19. We’ll find out soon enough if Abbott getting what he wanted these past couple of weeks has been good for him.

  20. Tony Abbott has declared, in respect of his perceived opponents in the ABC, that”Heads should roll”.

    ISIL has declared, in respect of its perceived opponents everywhere, that “Heads should roll”, as indeed they have.

    I’m struggling to appreciate the difference between the threats.

  21. [
    Posted Friday, June 26, 2015 at 5:03 pm | Permalink


    When was William on ABC774?
    About 15 minutes ago.

  22. [Not sure which identities will be involved but clever money must be on Vanstone]

    No Vanstone fan, but I’d be very surprised. She never struck me as playing in that sort of pool. More likely that others with heft in the Party would have had their good lobbying ability purchased than anything else.

  23. frednk @ 1035

    [We have the prediction for the next poll from William. Same as the last.]

    Sorry, I might be missing something, but what did you mean by ‘same as the last’?

  24. It’s good to see Dr. No Shorten finally turning into Mr Yes the last few weeks.

    The punters are starting to realise Shorten is just opposing for opposition sake.

  25. Shellbell

    As a resident of Brisbane, I am heartily tired of the antics of Carmody CJ and his anonymous supporters.

    When you say he is “back” next Monday, have you any suggestion for how long that will be.

    Today’s CM states he and his solicitor are having regular discussions about his future and how to handle it.

    Surely he cannot return to the Bench with any credibility, after what is said to be on the recordings made by one of his Justices in a “heated clash” in his Chambers.

    These confidential recordings have a way of making their way into the media.

    The sooner, the better, as far as I am concerned.

  26. You have to smile…..after just two weeks of Get Shorten in the Murdoch media, Bill has now won the coveted “embattled” spot in the firmament.

    On top of that, according to Probyn in the West, he has had a “ghastly week”.

    I think I have heard he is “under siege” as well. Bit like winning the Oscars.

    Meanwhile, just a few weeks ago, Abbott was nearly dead meat in his “Near Death Experience” – never mind about being a “dead duck”.

    I have to hand it to Bill that he got the title of ‘Embattled’ so quickly but then, Abbott skipped all these to score his near fatal time a few months ago.

    That the media concocts this stuff is a solid reason why thinking people either have stopped reading papers, or they just ignore the Canberra Rat Pack.

  27. One thing voters haven’t liked over the years is pollies shouting and screaming at them.

    You only have to remember 1975 when there were large crowds and much division, 1993 when Hewson became quite hysterical about the GST and Latham with his intemperate language and colourfully novel way of using taxis.

    It seems that voters just turnaway from hectoring/aggressive politicians and their politics.

    Consequently, Abbott and his government Ministers performance over citizenship and the TURC may not cut it with the electorate. To coin a phrase, most people are rather’bemused” by the carry on and confused about why there is so much hoopla atm.

    lasbor is probably well served to let Abbott run and run with his current strategy and tactics.

    I’m sure the voters aremost interested in jobs, the ecconomy, school, hospitals and interest rates. Many will be asking what the heck Abbott is going on about!

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