BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains a mild improving trend for Labor, albeit that it does so on the strength of a single opinion poll for the week.

The only new poll this week has been another 52-48 result from Essential Research, but it’s been enough to make a measurable difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. In particular, it’s brought it into line with the poll aggregations of Kevin Bonham, Mark the Ballot and Phantom Trend, which as of last week were between 0.4% and 0.6% better for Labor than BludgerTrack. That distinction has been all but erased by a 0.3% movement on two-party preferred, which shows up in the seat projection as extra seats for Labor in Victoria and Queensland. There are no new numbers for leadership ratings this week.

Other news:

• Overwhelming support for constitutional recognition of indigenous Australians was recorded by a Newspoll survey published in The Weekend Australian on Saturday, with 63% in favour and only 19% opposed.

• The Canberra Times has reported results of ReachTEL poll of 1446 respondents, conducted for Unions ACT, which includes a question on voting intention for the next territory election, to be held in October next year. After exclusion of the undecided, it has Labor on 41.5%, Liberal on 35.7% and the Greens on 16.5%, which is rather bad news for the Liberals given the results in 2012 were 38.9% for both Labor and Liberal and 10.7% for the Greens.

• Antony Green has weighed in on the stalled Senate reform process with two pieces, one considering the lessons to be drawn from New South Wales, where a system much like that proposed by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters is already in place for the state upper house, and another on the likely impact of the proposal for the various parties. The basic thesis of the latter is that the Senate would remain outside the control of any one party in all but exceptional circumstances, since this is a legacy of the increase in the size of parliament in 1984 and the routine of half-Senate elections for six rather than five members per state. However, the balance of power would more often be held exclusively by the Greens, unless the change caused the currently disparate micro-party vote to consolidate by some manner of merged entity. Putting his wonk hat on, Antony recommends adjusting the quota for election at each step of the count in the former article, rather than leaving it fixed at the number of votes divided by the number of seats plus one.

• A Liberal Party preselection ballot for Indi will be held on Sunday. Sophie Mirabella is again hoping to contest the seat she lost to independent Cathy McGowan in September 2013, but faces opposition from Kevin Ekendahl, a Wodonga businessman who has previously been a candidate for Melbourne Ports, and Andrew Walpole, an anaesthetist.

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has set the ball rolling on two inquiries, the more interesting of which will consider “current rules and practices in relation to campaign activities in the vicinity of polling places”. The other is on the delivery of electoral and civics education, in schools and at Parliament House.

• My subscriber-only contributions to Crikey over the past week have included one on the Northern Territory redistribution, a subject made more interesting than usual by claims of political interference and the resignation of a Country Liberal Party MP whose seat was abolished, and one on Bill Shorten coming out for fixed four-year terms.

UPDATE (Morgan state SMS polls): Morgan has published its monthly SMS polls of state voting intention, from samples ranging from 1270 in New South Wales to 333 in Tasmania. They record a small amount of Mike Baird’s post-election spike coming off, but with the Coalition still recording a 57-43 lead (down from 58.5=41.5 last month); the Victorian Newspoll result more-or-less corroborated with a Labor lead of 56.5-43.5 (steady); Labor moving into the lead in Queensland but still looking a bit shaky (51.5-48.5, after they trailed 52-48 last month); the Barnett government taking a 52.5-47.5 lead in Western Australia, after trailing 51-49 last time; the Liberals 51-49 ahead in South Australia, up from 50.5-49.5 (remembering the Liberals did in fact win the two-party vote 53-47 at last year’s election, but still lost); and primary votes of 42.5% (up 1.5%) for the Liberals, 33% (up 2.5%) for Labor and 20% (up 0.5%) for the Greens, which as ever feels too low for the Liberals.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,106 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. “@ABCthedrum: .@MikeSeccombe “The Government quite frankly has a State broadcaster, it is called News Corp.” #thedrum”

  2. The main Shanghai stock index is down 7.4% today – taking the fall since since 15 June to 20%.

    My ‘early warning’ indicator seems to work well on this index ie – the Red Dots.

    Big falls on the various Industry Indices –

    Industrials have fallen over 50% this month (Green Line in top panel)

    Info Tech Indice was up 160% this year but since 15 June has dropped back to 93%.

  3. guytaur

    Seccombe was very strong, and the Australian rep didn’t like it. Said they were only ‘following the story’.

    Oh yeah…

  4. Quote from the link above:

    [And Liberal Party pollster Mark Textor also weighed into the debate on social media, stating: “Q&A made a big mistake. We’ve all made them. Key is that same mistake is not repeated. But most know the ABC remains a good thing for Oz. Other than that, move on.”]

  5. I only just picked this up.

    [Tony Windsor ‏@TonyHWindsor ·23 hrs ago. What we saw was a PM forcing ASIO into a dog whistling position and a bureaucrat too silly to realise he’d been used]

  6. [Samantha Maiden ‏@samanthamaiden · 2m2 minutes ago
    Liberal pres Richard Alston has told federal council he expects federal election “in second half of next year”]

  7. 1064

    That could be misinformation.

    It could be poor analysis.

    If Abbott calls an election to forestall a leadership challenge, I doubt anyone will get much notice.

  8. Best on national security LNP 53, ALP 47. With the benefits of incumbency this is crap for conservative’s.

    Need more flags…

  9. GG @ 1050

    I think you might be right. My money is on a continual slide to labor. The Liberals and the press are giving the impression that they have left the plantation.

  10. Doing it from memory off 7 news… Primary ALP -1, GRN +4. I would have thought that would be a net gain to the ALP on TPP.

  11. [Question

    It seems that it isn’t only types like us who can’t stand the man.]

    So much for the PB “echo chamber”. 🙂

  12. Well, if that’s what a shocking week looks like for Shorten, and a great week for Abbott, I hope Shorten continues to stuff things up.

  13. While Shorten isn’t that popular, it’s beginning to look like Australian’s can see through the Royal Commision and MSM BS.

    All he needs to do is set a good example to the kids by chugging a beer. He hasn’t tried half the crap Abbott has used up yet 🙂

  14. [

    Reachtel PPM Shorten 56, Abbott 44.
    Union, Shorten, Boo worked well for the Liberals; gave Shorten the opportunity to strut his stuff.

    Shorten this week; “Abbott went too far trying to get people sacked”, seemed like a pretty sane view; people generally don’t like being sacked.

    Twenty flags next week?

    Perhaps next week; “twenty flags is a little over the top”; better yet; “given the budget emergency I hope the PM is getting the flags at a good price”.

  15. A little distraction

    Nine News Adelaide ‏@9NewsAdel · 26m26 minutes ago
    Urgent health alert about wet wipes, following a spike in allergic dermatitis cases. @jess_stanley9 reports #9NewsAt6

  16. [Quesion #1076
    Where there any other changes in primaries?]

    Hi Millennial, thanks to dendrite @1083 you don’t have to rely on my memory 🙂

    The PPM is actually 56.3 – 43.7.

  17. Obviously given that the last 2 weeks have been fantastic for the government the PPM figure must be wrong and so the media will ignore it.

  18. But, but….Bill has had a “ghastly” week…(Andrew Probyn)
    But, but….Bill is “waning while Tony is waxing” (Toolman)

    And…Reachtel tends to be somewhere near the mark…

    To boot, 52-48 again……..”And Liberal members went back to their electorates with spring in their steps…” ABC Early Morning AM…

    Clearly Reachtel is maverick…..

  19. [1071
    Tom Hawkins

    Reachtel PPM Shorten 56, Abbott 44.

    That’s almost unbelievable]

    It makes sense to me. Despite all the advantages of incumbency, people have very little faith in Abbott for very obvious reasons – he’s an idiot who lies and creates mayhem all the time. His numbers improve when he’s invisible. As soon as he ventures into the public space, he reminds voters of all the things they dislike – his aggression, his lying, his game-playing.

    There’s obviously a very hardened dislike of Abbott…and the more he campaigns, the greater the dislike becomes.

  20. Scott Morrison’s kept quiet for months, but now he’s opening his trap, and in the most disturbing way!

    As a recently-diagnosed sufferer from depression, I’d just like to say to Scott Morrison: Shut your trap, you spiv!

    Yes, the glow of achievement does ward off active depression – for a while. Not forever, and not even for very long, particularly if the “achievement” is getting a crappy, stressful or nasty job.

    Every time they open their yaps, this bunch remind us how effing privileged they’ve all been…and, consequently, how out of touch they are now that they enjoy power.

    Bring on the election, and make it a double dissolution, too!

  21. [BREAKING: Trade minister to axe skills assessments for ELECTRICIANS from China in Free Trade Agreement. #auspol #omg— Van Badham (@vanbadham) June 26, 2015]
    You’ve gotta be joking!

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