Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research again records no change in voting intention, but finds trust in the news media to have fallen since November.

The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor leading 52-48 for the seventh successive week, with the primary votes showing the Coalition down a point to 41% and Labor, the Greens and Palmer United steady on 39%, 10% and 1%. Other findings:

• An occasional question on “trust in media” records lower results across the board since November, with the most trusted outlets down the most. The ABC is down six points for television to 63% and four for radio to 58%, “local newspapers” are down three to 50%, and “daily newspapers” are down five to 45%. Commercial television and radio are stable, at a respective 46% and 44% for news and current affairs and 34% for talkback.

• Opponents of same-sex marriage are found to be more likely to hold their views “very strongly”, at 46% compared with 37% for supporters. However, the latter outnumber the former 59% to 28%. Fifty-eight per cent support a conscience vote in parliament, with only 19% believing it should be set by party policy (though presumably respondents would say this about all manner of things).

• Fixty-six per cent of respondents disapproval of people smugglers being paid to take asylum seekers back to Indonesia, but a quite substantial 29% approve.

• Presented with a list of infrastructure items their state might invest in, respondents overwhelmingly favoured hospitals and health centres (74%) over all options.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

890 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. @It’s Time/144

    I would have given you an answer already if you were nice about about it, but you weren’t, instead you added “opinionated conclusion”.

  2. jules @ 146

    The only thing that Fitzgibbon is good at is getting his revenge on the leaders who don’t recognise what a genius Minister he is or could be.

    He is not typical of the Labor Party membership.

    That said, even the fact that Tony Jones went craven shows how difficult it is to swim against the savage current that Captain Chaos has unleashed.

  3. Let’s cut through the crap from last night.

    A panelist (and Government MP) told a member of the audience that he should have been kicked out of the country. And that audience member responded by saying that the kind of mindset Ciobo expressed is what drives disaffected young Muslim men into the arms of Daesh.

    Well – one person was being grossly offensive and the other was not. The tragedy for this country is that the offensive guy is a hero and the other one is condemned for saying something that needs to be said and has been said by more than a few people on this blog.

  4. [Apparently, from my parents friends, there is alot of pressure to force employees to “leave” work, especially older people who have lots of experience.

    These people are being replaced by people who have no work experience at all in the industry that they are being employed at.

    Labor, Coalition Party, Greens, Unions are not helping these people, only demeaning them.]
    [@It’s Time/109

    Labor has no balls to stand up to bullies.]
    [@Its’s Time/118

    The evidence is all to see, when they pass legislation.

    If you don’t like me so called “opinionated conclusion”, don’t read it.

    Simple.]
    [@MB/122
    Perhaps if he asked nicely, instead, he has something to say about me, something that wasn’t nice.

    First off, the sector deals with Compressors, and a number of people had to use lawyers.]
    [@MB/128

    An example of compressors is Air Compressors or Nitrogen generators.

    But mostly deals with large versions of them.]
    There Zoidy, I think I’ve captured everything you’re posted on this topic. Now, what the hell are you talking about?

  5. MTBW

    The last Labor dynastic heir worth anything was Beazley. Simon Crean, the Ferguson brothers, McClelland, Fitzgibbon. Blech!

  6. lizzie

    It was never a love affair; it was puppy training.

    Good ABC – here’s some praise. Bad ABC very bad ABC. The ABC is an intelligent organisation. They can learn the tricks required by their political masters quickly when a quick boot in the side is what happens if you misbehave.

  7. lizzie

    It was never a love affair; it was puppy training.

    Good ABC – here’s some praise. Bad ABC very bad ABC. The ABC is an intelligent organisation. They can learn the tricks required by their political masters quickly when a quick boot in the side is what happens if you misbehave.

  8. @Its Time/156

    No need to be a smart ass, which is why I didn’t reply to you in the first place, so you continued to be one.

  9. TPOF

    🙂
    I thought it was extremely bad form for Abbott to thank Chris Uhlmann during QT. Also when he asked his MPs to clap Robb for his work on TPP. He’s out of control now in QT. Labor pollies must be so very frustrated. It’s a wonder they can still laugh.

    (And I don’t support the punishment methods of puppy training. So 20th century!)

  10. Yes, the ABC’s time in the sun has come & gone. No doubt suitable acts of contrition are being organised at this moment. Get busy on Son of Killing Season, Sarah!

  11. Zoidy, you’re being a dumb arse if you think you can inform anyone on an issue or persuade them on the minimal, disconnected information which you have provided on some problem or other. I can’t be bothered any further with your precious petal attitude.

  12. I watched Q&A, including the Mallah’s outburst.

    I thought the episode was chilling in more than one way. First, Ciobbo made a point of declaring he would have had no qualms about depriving Mallah of his citizenship even though Mallah had been acquitted of terrorism charges. This goes perilously close to being prepared to exile someone for what they believe rather than what they’ve done, bearing in mind Mallah was also convicted of other serious offences.

    But then Mallah’s response was, in its own way, even more extreme. Rather than argue the case for the application of the legal process and the value of forbearance, Mallah got close to saying that Ciobbo’s attitude was sufficiently provocative to induce “some” to take up arms. This is really to blame Ciobbo for the violence that others might let loose. This is completely unsupportable.

    We should be very clear about this. There is no case whatsoever for individuals chose violence. This is just not excusable or defensible. There can be no exemptions to the rule of law. To argue otherwise is to prefer chaos to order and peace.

    By the same token, those such as Ciobbo, who have positions of responsibility in the community, should make it clear they are opposed to and will not support the imposition of arbitrary penalties.

    What is clear is that the rule of law is being brought into question. The Ciobbos and the Mallahs of the world seem to think they are challenging each other. In fact, in their own ways, they are both challenging our universal rights to be treated equally and fairly according to the law.

    This is not a hypothetical. The Abbott Government has already suspended many of the legal rights of refugees. As well, there certainly are members of our community who have taken up arms. We are on the periphery of lawlessness. This is very troubling. It means we have to argue against both sets of antagonists without entering the lists for either.

    When we most need calm heads, we seem to have hotheads instead.

  13. “Whose side are you on?”

    You always have to take sides with Abbott. There’s no nuance, no grey areas & no chance of being different or holding an alternative viewpoint.

  14. briefly

    It was Ciobo moaning about him “getting off” due to whatever the law was not being retrospective that was a worry for me.

  15. [(And I don’t support the punishment methods of puppy training. So 20th century!)]

    Not necessarily my methods (although I’m getting frustrated) but it is typical of Captain Chaos to use 20th century methods to house train the ABC.

  16. [It was Ciobo moaning about him “getting off” due to whatever the law was not being retrospective that was a worry for me.]

    It was the very first thing to horrify me about his confrontation with Mallah. The very idea that the presumption against retrospectively in criminal law could be described as a ‘technicality’ is incredibly scary.

    I commented on that very point last night but you are the first person I’ve seen to also react to this appalling dismissal of a central tenet of our criminal law.

  17. [But then Mallah’s response was, in its own way, even more extreme. Rather than argue the case for the application of the legal process and the value of forbearance, Mallah got close to saying that Ciobbo’s attitude was sufficiently provocative to induce “some” to take up arms. This is really to blame Ciobbo for the violence that others might let loose. This is completely unsupportable.]
    It would seem more that he was pointing out a potential consequence of alienating a powerless minority of the community and applying discretionary, extra-judicial punishment to some members of that community. All it takes is the rare nutter to convince himself that such response is justified.

  18. mikehilliard

    [“Whose side are you on?”

    You always have to take sides with Abbott. There’s no nuance, no grey areas…]
    As I said here years ago he is our George Dubya Bush . Just another similarity to add to the list.As ‘The Shrub’ quote goes “You’re either with us, or against us” .

  19. [“guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, June 23, 2015 at 2:57 pm | Permalink

    “@BernardZuel: I still don’t know what Zaky Mallah said that was so offensive. Or is it that he spoke at all? How very dare he. Next he’ll want the vote.””]

    Please guytsur… keep letting your mate Zaky speak out for your side of politics, the Coalition need a booster in the polls

  20. [That said, even the fact that Tony Jones went craven shows how difficult it is to swim against the savage current that Captain Chaos has unleashed.]

    True. (To a point, i think Jones is a bit gutless these days, maybe he always was.) It would take courage, vision (and the ability to articulate it) and real leadership. The trouble with this lot of bullies is that they are also the loudest whinging crybabies in the country. Standing up to them is spun as bullying.

    As far as opposition leaders go Shorten seems ok so far. But I think its coming to a point where he needs to draw a line in the sand about what is acceptable for Australia and what isn’t. It should be easy to link the extremities of Abbott’s national security fear mongering and the extremity his other attacks on Australia – defunding education and health for example.

  21. briefly @ 165

    One is a member of Parliament and a parliamentary secretary. The other is a hothead in the audience. There is no equivalence in responsibility.

    In any case, I don’t think Mallah was promoting violence. I thought at the time, and his subsequent posts have confirmed, that he was pointing out that the sort of aggressive shoot from the hip comments by Ciobo are just the sort of thing that will actually encourage proto-jihadists to take the next step.

    And I think he’s made a fair point. Abusing him for saying that – as this government has done – only confirms for many hotheads that this government (and perhaps the Australian people) really are out to get them and they may as well go to Daesh and all it offers.

    Certainly, the way Abbott has talked down to them – telling them that Daesh are very bad people – is not designed to talk them out of it. It is kindergarten talk intended for the rest of Australians who understand nothing of what drives these young men.

    Can I also say that I have little understanding of what drives these young men. It totally is contrary to what I’m please to regard as rationality and logic. But it is happening and trite kindergarten talking down to them is not taking us any closer to finding out what is making them tick and actually working effectively to counter that.

  22. [“As far as opposition leaders go Shorten seems ok so far. But I think its coming to a point where he needs to draw a line in the sand about what is acceptable for Australia and what isn’t.”]

    I agree BillShorten should stand up for Zaky Mallah’s point of view on Islamic Jihad and maybe even write him a letter of endorsement. What could possibly go wrong?

    Labor brains trust is in full swing tonight…

  23. Evening Bludgeroonies!

    That Essential result doesn’t seem to warrant a Gadzooks…..I reckon Bernie was taking the piss.

  24. Re TPOF @155:

    [“The tragedy for this country is that the offensive guy is a hero and…”]

    … also a member of the Government.

  25. [“Certainly, the way Abbott has talked down to them – telling them that Daesh are very bad people – is not designed to talk them out of it. It is kindergarten talk intended for the rest of Australians who understand nothing of what drives these young men.”]

    What in your mind drives them to behead leftwing human rights workers who were actually there to help and rape women and photograph their kids holding up the heads of decapitated people?

    Whats next, do you want to hold a Hug-A-Suicide-Bomber Day?

  26. Every partner / equity owner in the South Australian law firm charging graduates $22k for what seems essentially a commission job should be struck off, legal or not it is a disgraceful exploitation.

  27. [That Essential result doesn’t seem to warrant a Gadzooks…..I reckon Bernie was taking the piss.]
    No sh!t Sherlock.

  28. [What in your mind drives them to behead leftwing human rights workers who were actually there to help and rape women and photograph their kids holding up the heads of decapitated people?
    ]

    Amongst many others of many cultures Conrad wrote about this aspect of the human condition in Heart of Darkness, it is something for grown ups who’ve at least started high school. It is a short book but I know your three words are used up on the title.

  29. [What in your mind drives them to behead leftwing human rights workers who were actually there to help and rape women and photograph their kids holding up the heads of decapitated people?]

    F!@#ed if I know. I’m not an expert in what drives people to extreme psychopathic violence. Nor is Steve Ciobo or Joel Fitzgibbon for that matter. But FMD if Mallah might have some idea if he is not shut down.

    Of course, like the deaths at sea people like you get incredibly aroused by beheadings because you see it as political gold for Captain Chaos and the Clown Circus. Your stupid comment about hugging a suicide bomber just shows how utterly shallow you and your kind are.

    Frankly, I suspect the sort of mentality that leads you to post the kind of crap that you post means that you probably have a better insight into the mentality of these psychopaths than I ever can.

  30. Charlestown, South Carolina is a very beautiful city and historically was where the beginning of the Civil War started.

    The old part of the city has cobblestone streets and 200 Year old buildings, so the Confederate flag is flown more for historical reasons than anything racial

  31. Hapless @ 183

    Thanks for the advice. But instinctively I know to ignore anything suggested by the troll. It ranks with the emails I get from Russian girls from time to time and Nigerian requests for a little favour with a big payout.

  32. I’m not the labor brains trust. Pretty far from it actually.

    BTW trite boring asshat did you notice how both the liberal party types on the show last night have form for promoting violence against women and treason. Maybe they’re secret muzzies or something. The sooner we deport you and your seditious terrorist mates in the liberal party the safer we’ll all be.

  33. [Amongst many others of many cultures Conrad wrote about this aspect of the human condition in Heart of Darkness]

    I understand a revised edition is in the works. It will have a different title for the Liberal faithful: the Tony Abbott Story.

  34. BTW the confederate flag in Charleston was supposedly put there as a response to the civil rights movement. So for over 50 years South Carolina has basically sent a big fuck you to all the black people in the US.

    [so the Confederate flag is flown more for historical reasons than anything racial]

    Well at least you got one thing right tonight, and that was that the coalition needs a boost in the poles, still, despite everything. Reflect on that and have a nice night smartypants.

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