For those who may have forgotten what a honeymoon poll looks like, The Australian reports that the Andrews government has opened its Newspoll account with a two-party preferred lead of 58-42, in a result aggregated from polling of 1154 respondents throughout May and June. This compares with an election result of 52.0-48.0. The primary votes are 41% for Labor (compared with 38.1% at the election), 35% for the Coalition (down from 42.0%) and 14% for the Greens (up from 11.5%). Daniel Andrews’ approval rating of 51% compares with 38% in the final pre-election poll, and his disapproval rating is down from 43% to 32%. Matthew Guy’s debut ratings as Opposition Leader are fairly respectable, at 35% approval and 29% disapproval, but he trails 48-24 as preferred premier.
UPDATE: Leroy Lynch in comments observes that there have in fact been earlier results from Morgan’s state-level SMS polling, which I don’t rate terribly highly. Nonetheless, you can find the results at the following links for March, April and May.
For what its worth, the only other indication we’ve had on Victorian govt polling is the Roy Morgan state level SMS only polling, which has fluctuated a bit, but kept showing the ALP with a good lead.
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6261-morgan-poll-state-voting-intention-may-2015-201505270543
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6159-morgan-poll-state-voting-intention-april-2015-201504150230
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6125-sms-morgan-poll-state-voting-intention-march-2015-201503180359
Now, that’s a “Wow’ and a “Gadzooks’.
Yep. Indeed. The msm were reminding us what a horrible month Andrews was having and that the govt was suffering a crisis so early in its term. You really gotta laugh. The Age especially was pushing this meme
[Zac Spitzer
6m6 minutes ago
Zac Spitzer @zackster
But I thought the media was telling us @DanielAndrewsMP was in trouble? Hahahaha #buythepaper #springst]
Will be interesting to see how this political capital is used. I’d expect Andrews to press ahead with the sale of Melbourne Ports.
If the Libs choose to block this – can that trigger an election?
There’s too little polling to see if this is on the ball or an outlier, but Vic Labor is definitely ahead by a good margin.
Not really a surprise, the Andrews Government has got off to a solid start, no major broken promises and I am yet to hear any major complaints about the things which swing Victorian elections.
EWLnk is still a bug bear for Liberals but for most people they will be happy to see the back of the railway crossings which have long been a right royal pain.
@6
The order of the removal of the Level crossings is significant. The Frankston corridor crossings are the first to be worked on. This covers the key seats that the Libs won in 2010 to just sneak across the line.
Maybe just a co-incidence 🙂
4
There is provision for an early election if a bill is rejected twice by the Legislative Council (with a couple of other easy to meet conditions).
7
There is however no plan to get rid of the Glen Huntly Rd level crossing (which would mean that the Neerim Rd crossing has to go as well, because they are so close together) which has trams crossing, which slows the trains down (especially the express trains).
I am really not that surprised by this poll result. What does surprise me is how invisible state politics now is. It receives very little coverage (on the ABC at least) and ministers in the Andrews government are largely invisible. It could be very much a case of out of sight, out of mind.
[The Frankston corridor crossings are the first to be worked on. This covers the key seats that the Libs won in 2010 to just sneak across the line.]
And Labor won back in 2014. The state budget (especially in education) was also very focussed towards these seats. All those school extension and upgrades to come on line nicely for the 2018 poll.
If anyone is a keen gambler, now’s the time to find someone you know will honour the bet and take the odds for a Coalition win. As for people’s predictions, unless you know a clairvoyant with a proven track record, throwing darts is a more relaxed and often more reliable too, way of choosing which of them is correct.
Geoff Shaw the maverick Lib MP from the last Parliament is still trying to attract headlines.
http://baysidenews.com.au/2015/06/22/shaw-makes-headlines-again/
Shaw’s new job, spruiking a hair transplant clinic, sounds like just the ticket for him.
This poll result confirms my opinion that Matthew Guy has made a huge strategic error in continuing to bang on about East-West Link. Abbott, of course, has helped in this regard too. Victorians know very well that Andrews’ position on the road could not have been plainer before the election – and for Guy to go out so strongly stating in effect that Andrews should have broken a major election promise has been utter, utter madness. The treacherous agreement Napthine reached on East-West just days before the calling of the election is hardly something Guy wants to be reminding voters of. In my view, Guy will have to change tack completelely – keep his head down, be less obstructionist, bide his time.
I don’t care either way for Geoff Shaw, but I thought that article about him in that hair transplant business sounded like a cheap shop. He’s free to do so unless there’s some kind of conflict of interest.
Hockey v Fairfax judgement – next Tuesday according to Twitter
In reviewing the City of Stonnington’s recent Count-back count sheets following the resignation of Cr Sam Hibbins the more I realize that whoever drafted the count-back rules and system of counting proportion representation had no idea hows the system is supposed to work. Analysis of the information published indicates that the wrong person was elected in the count back.
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/stonningtoncountback2015.html
The system in use fails to consider the value of votes left unused on the table in the form of the wasted quota. Even more unjust is that they have discounted the value of votes attributed to the nunber of primary votes attributed to Sam Hibbins elections reducing 846 votes to a value of 453. Had these votes been proportionally distributed then Steve STEFANOPOULOS would have been elected With a margin greater than 60 votes.
There is little wonder why the City of Stonnington does not want the detailed preference data files published. As doing so will highlight the flaws in the system in place,
Stonnington is undertaking yet again another Count-back following the death of Cr Adrian STUBBS (East Ward)in June.
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Elections/CurrentCouncilElections.html#stonnington
Victoria needs to seriously rethink the regulations and legislation that governs the way proportional representation is counted to restore confidence, fairness and faith in the system itself.