Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research again records no change in voting intention, but finds trust in the news media to have fallen since November.

The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor leading 52-48 for the seventh successive week, with the primary votes showing the Coalition down a point to 41% and Labor, the Greens and Palmer United steady on 39%, 10% and 1%. Other findings:

• An occasional question on “trust in media” records lower results across the board since November, with the most trusted outlets down the most. The ABC is down six points for television to 63% and four for radio to 58%, “local newspapers” are down three to 50%, and “daily newspapers” are down five to 45%. Commercial television and radio are stable, at a respective 46% and 44% for news and current affairs and 34% for talkback.

• Opponents of same-sex marriage are found to be more likely to hold their views “very strongly”, at 46% compared with 37% for supporters. However, the latter outnumber the former 59% to 28%. Fifty-eight per cent support a conscience vote in parliament, with only 19% believing it should be set by party policy (though presumably respondents would say this about all manner of things).

• Fixty-six per cent of respondents disapproval of people smugglers being paid to take asylum seekers back to Indonesia, but a quite substantial 29% approve.

• Presented with a list of infrastructure items their state might invest in, respondents overwhelmingly favoured hospitals and health centres (74%) over all options.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

890 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 18
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  1. [A high-profile taskforce was formed in 2013 by the international organisation Getting to Know Cancer, which was concerned that cancer research was focused primarily on the role of heritable and lifestyle factors as triggers.

    This is despite evidence that as many as one in five cancers may be caused by chemical exposures in the environment that are not related to personal lifestyle choices.

    Chemicals are tested for carcinogenic links, but only one at a time, leaving questions around the possibility that a fusion of these chemicals may instead be causing cancer.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/science/2015/jun/23/exposure-to-mixture-of-chemicals-may-trigger-cancer-scientists-find

    http://www.gettingtoknowcancer.org/

  2. psyclaw
    [ being dealt with by him in the back cell of the cop shop.]

    His visage is perfect for such a thought. Even when shadow minister and before I knew he was an ex cop he had a look that made me think ‘thug’

  3. It’s Time @ 96
    I think david is talking change in numbers (and has worded it badly). If the 2pp moved +2/-2 we might look for a cause, but the 2pp has moved 0/0 even with a lot of stuff apparently going on.

  4. Apparently, from my parents friends, there is alot of pressure to force employees to “leave” work, especially older people who have lots of experience.

    These people are being replaced by people who have no work experience at all in the industry that they are being employed at.

    Labor, Coalition Party, Greens, Unions are not helping these people, only demeaning them.

  5. Maybe Tony Jones can invite Abbott onto Q&A to discuss terrorist issues ( & the multitude of lies he hasn’t stopped stopped spouting )

    Maybe TBA can help Abbott prepare for his appearance

  6. Poroti

    Yes

    And since being in government he has confirmed that he is a genuine bovver boy. His language and demeanor very much suggest that he would particularly enjoy kicking someone who was down.

    I think it is generally accepted that the Fitzgerald enquiry way back in Joh time left much Plod corruption untouched. Such may have been his training ground ….. if in doubt, wade in n givem a bit!!!

  7. I am completely perplexed as to the problem with the ABC permitting Zaky Mullah to speak briefly on Q & A. As a citizen who was charged with a terrorist offence and pleaded guilty to threats to kill he is a very relevant voice to be heard.

    Whether anyone would be swayed in the direction of naughtiness by his very brief appearance on Q & A may be doubted. Even were it the case I am entitled to hear from voices that I would not otherwise hear from due to my very narrow circle of acquaintances. On the other hand I can hear from the likes of Steve Ciobbo almost anywhere.

    Why there should be some pseudo-democratisation on matters of political opinion (as opposed to matters of science, where consensus scientific opinion should be given unequal time over the opinions of cranks), with unpopular voices are not to be heard escapes me.

    Leave all the populist garbage to 2GB and let Aunty act on the assumption the wisdom of its listeners can make up their own minds based on having heard from all sides of a political debate.

  9. [Labor, Coalition Party, Greens, Unions are not helping these people, only demeaning them.]
    which industry are you referring to? Are the affected people union members? Exactly how would an opposition party help and in what way is Labor demeaning them?

  11. On the Citizenship Act amendments & additions:

    Asked what kind of conduct would be captured by the provision – such as whether it would be confined to taking up arms or whether it would also include financing and recruiting for terrorist groups – he said: “There will be a series of provisions in the legislation to specify the kind of conduct that is covered, but in broad terms, it is serious involvement with a terrorist group.”

    ..seems dangerously vague to me. Will any allegations of conduct captured in this legislation be subject to a trial with all evidence tested before a judge ..or will the allegations be assessed by a yet to be determined individual or committee?

    ..without a conviction in a court of law ..how is this different from what Abbott/Dutton initially proposed?

  12. [I think it is generally accepted that the Fitzgerald enquiry way back in Joh time left much Plod corruption untouched. Such may have been his training ground ….. if in doubt, wade in n givem a bit!!!]
    Fitzgerald only enquired into official police corruption and any connection with government. He didn’t have forever and a day to investigate every problem in the police force. Dutton may not have even joined QPS until after Fitzgerald but would likely have been influenced/compatible with the old police culture.

    Regardless, many police recruits have a predictable personality and view of life and Dutton displays them in spades.

  13. Richard Chirgwin retweeted
    Alex Hawke MP ‏@AlexHawkeMP 10m10 minutes ago Canberra, Australian Capital Territory

    Following last night’s shameful airing of extreme views I have asked ABC’s @mscott to take #qanda off air pending the outcome of a review

  16. Abbott’s version of terrorist legislation seems to be written around Muslims.

    Some brave journo should ask him if the 21 yo killer in the US who was obsessed with White Supremacist influences would lose his Oz citizenship if he was involved with that sort of influence here.

  17. zoidlord

    [Richard Chirgwin retweeted
    Alex Hawke MP ‏@AlexHawkeMP 10m10 minutes ago Canberra, Australian Capital Territory

    Following last night’s shameful airing of extreme views I have asked ABC’s @mscott to take #qanda off air pending the outcome of a review]

    Who does Hawke think he is for God’s sake.

    Remind me how old he is! Talk about up yourself!

  18. [Labor has no balls to stand up to bullies.]
    Zoidy, you’ll have to provide some details of the circumstances and events, not just your opinionated conclusion.

  20. Alex Hawke is a complete flog, so much for the rabid right supposedly supporting free speech. Besides, has a long history of NSW Liberal factionalism and branch stacking

  21. @Its’s Time/118

    The evidence is all to see, when they pass legislation.

    If you don’t like me so called “opinionated conclusion”, don’t read it.

    Simple.

  24. Citizen

    [Perhaps they have some sort of mathematical model to calculate the number of flags at each press conference. If we could crack the formula, it would be easy to predict how many flags each time.]

    http://t.co/wcq7Dcn1PR

  25. @MB/122
    Perhaps if he asked nicely, instead, he has something to say about me, something that wasn’t nice.

    First off, the sector deals with Compressors, and a number of people had to use lawyers.

  26. Comrades,

    I don’t normally watch Parliament; however I was home today and so was able to take advantage and watch proceedings at 2 pm.

    It was interesting. Abbott appeared quite tentative I thought. Shorten seemed relaxed. Dutton was quite thuggish, and you can see he is the appointed attack dog, going after Dreyfus and reprising the knifing attack against Shorten.

    I thought it was all quite lacklustre and tame. I switch off after about 20 minutes.

    Gee Bronwyn Bishop is a biased old crone.

  32. Goosh Goosh

    [a long history of NSW Liberal factionalism and branch stacking]

    Dear me, I thought that was only nasty Labor habits 😀

  33. [sprocket_
    Posted Tuesday, June 23, 2015 at 6:05 pm | PERMALINK
    Citizen

    Perhaps they have some sort of mathematical model to calculate the number of flags at each press conference. If we could crack the formula, it would be easy to predict how many flags each time.

    http://t.co/wcq7Dcn1PR ]

    Of course!

  35. Zoidy, if you want to be taken seriously, provide facts and context. And the precious petal attitude won’t get you anywhere either.

  36. Remember when Julia at Home was on and we lefties thought it should be taken off air for insults, bad acting and poor plotting? Where were the pollies then?

  37. @MB/128

    An example of compressors is Air Compressors or Nitrogen generators.

    But mostly deals with large versions of them.

  39. At last, someone’s publicly gunning for Bronnie. And it’s Hawke who set it off again.

    [The matter came to a head in question time on Monday when cabinet minister Christopher Pyne, who has been aggressively pursuing Mr Shorten over his conduct during his time as a union boss, took a Dorothy Dix question on the issue.

    “I have a much more serious question to the Minister for Education and Training…will the minister update the House on the importance of maintaining transparency and accountability in the union movement?” Liberal MP Alex Hawke asked Mr Pyne.

    Manager of opposition business Tony Burke speaks to his motion of dissent against the Speaker Bronwyn Bishop during question time on June 1.
    Manager of opposition business Tony Burke speaks to his motion of dissent against the Speaker Bronwyn Bishop during question time on June 1. Photo: Andrew Meares

    Mr Pyne began by citing Mr Shorten’s media interview on Sunday, where he was asked questions about union-employer deals struck during his time at the AWU, which have been the focus of recent testimony to the royal commission.

    Labor’s shadow attorney-general Mark Dreyfus repeatedly tried to raise a point of order relating to the long-standing convention that Parliamentarians do not seek to interpret evidence given to a royal commission before it has made its own ruling.

    But Speaker Bronwyn Bishop told him several times he was “wasting time”.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/speaker-bronwyn-bishop-shutting-down-question-time-debate-on-royal-commission-labor-20150623-ghvaog.html

  43. lizzie,

    “Remember when Julia at Home was on and we lefties thought it should be taken off air for insults, bad acting and poor plotting?”

    I thought that was Parliament wthey were talking about.

  44. Zoidy, is there a post which you thought you posted which gave the background to the problem but which you didn’t actually post?

  46. [Labor has no balls to stand up to bullies.]

    I thought Ciobo was a bully last night and Fitzgibbon did too little to stand up to him. Too scared to defend Mallah’s freedom of speech when Jones and the wingnuts were shutting him down? Kind of seemed that way. I remember the way Keating stood up to racists on talkback radio. the very opposite of JF.

    Fitzgibbon said this at the start of the night when they were referring to the terrorism in Charleston:

    [That’s okay for the media to do that but I get really concerned when that starts to extend to Government and I see government seeking to make political capital out of these events and I think we’re seeing that on a regular basis at the moment.]

    Then when a government member actually did exactly that, right there in front of him, on the same show about an hour later Fitzgibbon did/said nothing.

    If the ALP stands up to defend qanda, Mallah, the rule of law and democratic principles and to criticise the likes of Alex Hawke, Ciobo and the crap they spout then that will show they do have the heart to stand up to bullying. Lets hope they do.

  50. On The Drum, Peter Lewis said that Steve Ciobo took the wrong tack by giving his personal opinion on how Mallah should be treated (banishment). It is not up to one single MP to make a judgement. It illustrated that the Coalition has completed abandoned the principle of separation of powers. He sounded very concerned.

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