The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor leading 52-48 for the seventh successive week, with the primary votes showing the Coalition down a point to 41% and Labor, the Greens and Palmer United steady on 39%, 10% and 1%. Other findings:
• An occasional question on “trust in media” records lower results across the board since November, with the most trusted outlets down the most. The ABC is down six points for television to 63% and four for radio to 58%, “local newspapers” are down three to 50%, and “daily newspapers” are down five to 45%. Commercial television and radio are stable, at a respective 46% and 44% for news and current affairs and 34% for talkback.
• Opponents of same-sex marriage are found to be more likely to hold their views “very strongly”, at 46% compared with 37% for supporters. However, the latter outnumber the former 59% to 28%. Fifty-eight per cent support a conscience vote in parliament, with only 19% believing it should be set by party policy (though presumably respondents would say this about all manner of things).
• Fixty-six per cent of respondents disapproval of people smugglers being paid to take asylum seekers back to Indonesia, but a quite substantial 29% approve.
• Presented with a list of infrastructure items their state might invest in, respondents overwhelmingly favoured hospitals and health centres (74%) over all options.
Memo to Abbott – more flags needed.
When there’s a new thread I am stupidly hopeful that the government has changed its tactics while I wasn’t looking. But no. :sigh:
[
The crux of the objection to the ‘convicted terrorist’s’ presence (was he convicted?) was that he presented a security threat to the audience. Perhaps Mark Scott should ask for more funding for armed security officers around the building.
]
lizzie
I saw this earlier on his record
[
Zaky Mallah was charged under counter-terror laws introduced by the former Howard government but acquitted. He was, however, jailed in 2005 for threatening to kill ASIO and Department of Foreign Affairs staff, and in 2012 travelled to Syria during the Arab spring uprisings.
]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/form-of-sedition-coalition-mps-slam-abc-for-allowing-former-terrorism-suspect-on-qa-20150623-ghv0dj.html
I suspect an SSO is coming after Bishop ruling on questions
Thanks, Cyril. The chatter became confusing.
Saw a warning it was a ’10 flagger’ from Abbott but thought they were joking . They weren’t.Good grief.
Victorian Liberals “dog in the manger” attitude (with profuse apologies to dogs):
[Opposition to block sale of Port of Melbourne
Labor could bypass parliament and sell the Port of Melbourne without its approval, Treasurer Tim Pallas has said in the wake of the Coalition’s decision to block the sale of the port.
Mr Pallas on Tuesday would not rule out using powers granted to the Treasurer under the state-owned enterprises act, set up by Kennett-government Treasurer Alan Stockdale, to sell the port if the Coalition refused to allow the port to be sold.
“Our preference it to get this done in a cooperative way with the parliament but we are not in the business of allowing the Opposition to create uncertainty and conjecture about whether or not promises will be honoured,” Mr Pallas said.
The coalition would potentially blow a $5 billion to $7 billion hole in the budget by opposing the sale of the Port of Melbourne.
Despite supporting the idea when in government, Opposition Leader Matthew Guy confirmed the Coalition will block the sale in the lower house, and will stall it in the upper house by referring the issue to a potentially drawn-out inquiry.]
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/opposition-to-block-sale-of-port-of-melbourne-20150623-ghv417.html
suspect the aggregate will tick to Labor in the absence of any other polls?
[http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/23/zaky-mallah-i-stand-by-what-i-said-on-qa-the-public-needs-to-hear-it]
I feel very conflicted on this bloke being able to speak last night but I still think it’s better to hear him than not. We need to know.
On Abbott spruiking Weatherill he’s right in saying that Jay told ABC radio wtte ‘the PM is interested in reform’
Mallah admitted his conviction on Q@A – said something about plea bargaining.
How many times now has ABC caved in when attacked by Abbott and his ministers?
Greens presser
Raaraa
I’m sorry, I thought I made it clear that if I’d simply reacted wrongly, thinking that statements starting with ‘you’ in a response to me were personal when they weren’t, that I withdrew all that.
I obviously didn’t make that clear enough, and I’m happy to concede that I took your post the wrong way, because of the confusion caused.
For which I apologise.
(From previous thread)
A future Labor Government will need the revenue from the fuel excise. Unfortunatey the Greens didn’t wave it through and take the blame, so Labor has to do it, pleading responsible support for an unpopular measure to fix a budget that has been trashed by the Coalition. Once in power, Labor won’t be able to increase it without it likely being blocked in the Senate.
No one likes taxes, but this would seem to be one of the least worst. The real burdon of the exise would not increase but merely keep pace with the cost of living. Labor will have a lot of damage to repair.
Andrew Robb may have inadvertently done us a favour
[inadvertently influenced US senators to deliver another blow to President Barack Obama and the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal.
The US Senate is expected to undertake a crucial vote on fast-track authority for the TPP on Tuesday (Wednesday AEST).
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2015/6/23/china/robb-may-have-scuttled-tpp?utm_source=exact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=1424784&utm_campaign=chs_daily&modapt=
Republican senator Jeff Sessions, from Alabama, wrote an open letter on Monday to senators in his party calling on them to vote against the bill and pointed to remarks made by Mr Robb last week in an interview with Australian broadcaster ABC.
Mr Robb said, “We are literally one week of negotiation away from completing this extraordinary deal across 12 countries and 40 per cent of the world’s GDP.”]
Compensating low income people for petrol rises by increasing public transport will do absolutely nothing for those outside the reach of most PT, many of which are low income.
Shellbell
Read the Guardian article from Mallah – quite interesting. Would it be believable?
So do any of Mallah’s sins make his freedom of speech forfeit?
If he was a real security risk, where were ASIO to advise the ABC or surveil Mallah?
52 – 48, unchanged.
GADZOOKS!!!!
Jonathan Green
3h3 hours ago
Jonathan Green @GreenJ
julia gillard on the money in this critique of press and politics. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/23/julia-gillard-exclusive-interview-the-timid-abc-is-rewarding-tony-abbott …
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-02/millane-pension-deal-an-offer-hard-to-refuse/6368830
[But it is hard to argue with a savings measure which is also fair….
The proposal, put forward by the Australian Council of Social Services (ACOSS), is to tighten the pension assets test by lowering the asset-free threshold for people who own their home, and to increase the taper rates so that eligibility for a part pension cuts out sooner]
https://newmatilda.com/2015/06/23/why-greens-were-right-do-pension-deal-scott-morrison
[The University of New South Wales’ Rafal Chomik has crunched the data and produced this graph….
What this means is that some senior Australians with fewer assets will receive higher pension payments. Some pensioners with a lot of assets will lose their part-pension altogether.
In other words, the changes are progressive, even as they punish pensioners with higher assets. They help those in the lower tiers, and exclude more of the wealthy from accessing it.
For pensioners with very little, the changes will have no impact. There are nearly a million pensioners who neither own their home nor have more than $300,000 in assets. These pensioners will not be affected.
Some pensioners will gain, particularly those with between $300,000 and half a million in assets.
But for pensioners in the middle and upper ends of the range – say those that own their house and have around half a million or more in assets – there will be pain.
…]
BH
I did not think much of his article.
I am not quite why his view point is of any great moment but that is my view of most convicted crims.
When people starting saying juries did this and that outside acquitting them, it is normally just nonsense.
Tony be afraid , very afraid ….
Gillard also warned that the Abbott government’s pattern of holding royal commissions to inquire into their political opponents – the royal commission into trade unions that called her to give evidence and has now called the Labor leader, Bill Shorten, and the royal commission into the pink batts program before which Kevin Rudd appeared – set a dangerous precedent that could be used against the Coalition in the future
Apparently the Republicans are upset after Robb let the cat out of the bag on the TPP:
[
Mr Robb said, “We are literally one week of negotiation away from completing this extraordinary deal across 12 countries and 40 per cent of the world’s GDP.”
The one-week time frame was news to the senator.
“The Australian trade minister has unintentionally debunked the idea that TPP is somehow only in the planning stages,” Senator Sessions wrote.
“Some members of congress conditioned their votes on assurances that the (Obama) administration would form the agreement based on the vague, non-binding ‘negotiating objectives’ in fast-track.
“Those promises are now broken.”]
It’s going to be 52-48 for a long time to come no matter how many flags they put out.. Unless anything drastic or new comes along, it’ll stay that way.
sceptic @ 23
Someone should hold a royal commission into royal commissions. 😉
Read an article on IA that says Tony could be gone by Friday. Next week I’m picking up my Wii U. This could be the best two weeks of my year.
[julia gillard on the money in this critique of press and politics. ]
[Gillard also warned that the Abbott government’s pattern of holding royal commissions to inquire into their political opponents… set a dangerous precedent that could be used against the Coalition in the future]
Gillard has nailed a few home truths lately.
From the previous thread:
Question @ 3843
[Yeah, I’m not sure why Abbott is so confident of his campaigning skills. He probably got a scare from Rudd’s initial polling bounce and thought it was his effort that pulled it back. The most notable aspect of his last campaign was how much it contradicted what he has since done in government. Not sure he can claim any trust].
Abbott has quasi-religious faith that what has worked in the past will always work. So when John Howard has been able to close the gap in the past, he takes it as a given that it will happen naturally, like he will get a boost just because his is a first term government.
Personally, I think his campaigning skills are terrible. He is good at being a destructive opposition when in opposition and even when in government but it was not his campaign skills that almost won him the 2010 election and did win the 2013 election. It was all Labor’s work in convincing the electorate that they were still fighting internal wars when they should have been putting the case to run the country.
The other problem is that he is carrying enormous baggage into the next election. If it is held early, he will have to explain why he is running to an election. Let’s be clear here. the current terrorist ‘threat’ does not look or feel like 2001 – as much as Abbott is trying to ramp it up. And Abbott does not radiate the stolid reassurance that Howard did; rather he looks and is the lunatic who will ride the atomic bomb dropped from the plane yahooing all the way down.
So if he goes early he will have to explain what he knows but he is not telling the public and whenever he goes he will have to deal with constant reminders of how he promised to restore trust and responsible government but instead delivered the most chaotic circus of a government in the lives of most Australians.
zoomster@13
Fair enough. And I concede that you probably know the conditions of rural transport infrastructure better than I do but we both probably agree that they need to be improved whether or not they’re funded from the indexation of the fuel excise.
Also from the previous thread:
[“@BernardZuel: I still don’t know what Zaky Mallah said that was so offensive. Or is it that he spoke at all? How very dare he. Next he’ll want the vote.”]
Guytaur and I are on absolutely the same page here.
As Mallah pointed out the next day, it was Ciobo not him who was talking about Julia Gillard and slit throats. And the other Liberal on the panel, Graeme Morris famously declared that Julia Gillard should be kicked to death. Maybe it’s because they were not Muslim that they could be as violent in their political commentary as they liked.
It really is about time that ordinary Australians stood up to this abuse of power and suppression of our freedoms. Where the hell is the Freedom Commissioner? Or is he only responsible for Andrew Bolt’s freedoms?
And, of course, the Muslim community has to back off as well and see their civil and political freedoms eroded for fear that they will be tarred by this terrorist government as Daesh sympathisers.
Australia really needs to be free of these bullying thugs while we have some rights remaining.
[TOP barrister Tony Morris has lost his challenge to Queensland’s speed camera fines.
The Court of Appeal this morning ruled the law, which allows car owners to be hit with a fine even when they are not driving, was not inconsistent with the Constitution.
…
Mr Morris is likely to seek leave to the High Court.]
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/speeding-fine-appeal-top-queensland-barrister-fails-in-challenge/story-fntwpug1-1227410618511
Bugger, I could have used that. But still there’s hope.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/whose-side-are-you-on-tony-abbott-lashes-abcs-qa-program-20150623-ghvd0l.html
My question is who’s side is he on?
I think the answer is his side.
This Zaky Mallah/QandA incident has given the Govt great political mileage on the exact same day the citizenship changes are announced. Funny that…
All things considered and allowing for the fact that it is only Essential, this is a pretty good result for Labor.
Thanks, Shellbell
Shellbell Mallah said in that article the jury heard evidence then found him not guilty.
Is that the same as acquitting him?
He also describes himself (back than) as dumb and naive and his actions as stupid.
Had a cruisey day so I spent the last hour or so reading his twitter feed. He certainly doesn’t come across as a threat to Australia, loathes ISIL and says so at every opportunity, seems to support the actual rule of law and even rejects homophobia.
He constantly makes the point that Australia’s so called attempts at de radicalisation, in a climate where both sides of politics have a national security fetish, are probably going to fail and that its a sad thing they will.
So it seems Ciobo is just another racist fuckwit playing for the islamophobia vote. At no point was Mallah ever convicted of a terrorist offense and he is not a dual national, just a clumsy speaker who made a meal of stating an obvious point. All the more reason to exile him I spose…
[Fair enough. And I concede that you probably know the conditions of rural transport infrastructure better than I do but we both probably agree that they need to be improved whether or not they’re funded from the indexation of the fuel excise.]
The thing that our squabbling missed, though, was that this was a significant achievement for Labor. There is pretty broad agreement across the board that the public interest is served by reinstating the petrol excise as a revenue measure and as a disincentive to purchase petrol, despite the regressive nature of the excise.
As the government had proceeded to introduce the excise anyway last year by regulation, the result of failing to get the provision through the Senate retrospectively would have seen the money return to the oil companies and therefore all round losses (except for the oil companies with a massive windfall). Now, people like Zoomster can point to how Labor got this or that road repaired and made safer by forcing the hand of the Government.
And Labor can boast of being reasonable and not just a blocker (compare Matthew Guy on 42% support wanting to block the sale of the melbourne ports for no higher principal than making life harder for the State Government).
Zoomster and co can now point to roadworks being do
[The crux of the objection to the ‘convicted terrorist’s’ presence (was he convicted?) was that he presented a security threat to the audience. Perhaps Mark Scott should ask for more funding for armed security officers around the building.]
That’s a ridiculous objection. Isn’t he allowed to go anywhere in public? What about the football?
If he’s that dangerous, it’s up to AFP to manage him, not the ABC.
Still they don’t have to give a platform to a nutter.
[Swing Required
Posted Tuesday, June 23, 2015 at 3:23 pm | PERMALINK
52 – 48, unchanged.
GADZOOKS!!!!]
I believe the next significant poll movement will be announced as HEAVENS TO MURGATROYD
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Fwpj27hlP4
[So it seems Ciobo is just another racist fuckwit playing for the islamophobia vote]
Yes. And Fitzgibbon was no better, although he never talked publicly about slitting throats of political opponents.
http://www.skynews.com.au/news/world/2015/06/22/nz-pm-criticises-paying-people-smugglers.html
[NZ PM criticises paying people smugglers.
‘You are paying the very people that you find actions abhorrent and also it is slightly double dealing because people have actually paid them to go on the boat so what sort of people are we dealing with?’]
Meanwhile, back at Essential it is reported 48% of COALition voters “Approve of paying people smugglers’ and 19% ‘Don’t Know’.
jules
[Shellbell Mallah said in that article the jury heard evidence then found him not guilty.
Is that the same as acquitting him?]
Yes
Just a point about the Essential poll. Even though we sort of snigger at the extreme lack of volatility it is emphasising that the 4 point difference between the Opposition and the Coalition is pretty entrenched.
It does seem to suggest that the task for Captain Chaos will be much greater than a 4 point difference would historically represent. Especially as he is deeply vulnerable to reminders about how dishonest he was when he came to office and ever since.
He has left a wealth of material around to remind Australians of how chaotic and dishonest his regime has been. And that is before we even get around to thinking about policy.
[Had a cruisey day so I spent the last hour or so reading his twitter feed. He certainly doesn’t come across as a threat to Australia, loathes ISIL and says so at every opportunity, seems to support the actual rule of law and even rejects homophobia.
He constantly makes the point that Australia’s so called attempts at de radicalisation, in a climate where both sides of politics have a national security fetish, are probably going to fail and that its a sad thing they will.]
All the proof you need that he is a danger to the society which Abbot would like to create.
They will probably put a 48 flag poll next, to match their polling data.
[shea mcduff
Posted Tuesday, June 23, 2015 at 3:53 pm | PERMALINK
http://www.skynews.com.au/news/world/2015/06/22/nz-pm-criticises-paying-people-smugglers.html
NZ PM criticises paying people smugglers.
‘You are paying the very people that you find actions abhorrent and also it is slightly double dealing because people have actually paid them to go on the boat so what sort of people are we dealing with?’]
These people were reportedly headed for NZ, so we now know for certain that Key didn’t ask Abbott to pay the people smugglers on his behalf.
Last week you mentioned that you have the weekly data for Essential, and that the more recent of the two weeks data was more favorable to the Coalition than the week before it was. Are we to assume, from the fact that the 2 week average is still unchanged, that this week is more similar to 2 weeks ago than 1 week ago? I.e. that the weekly data shows an increase in Labor support this week compared to last?
citizen @ 39
And will only happen after Abbott exits stage right.
This just popped up on my Facebook wall.
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/leaked-proposal-suggests-states-may-lose-18b-healthcare-funding-20150622-ghu001?stb=twt
lizzie@16
This argument can also be reversed in the sense that people who drive in the suburban areas outside the reach of PT will have to face the burden of increased petrol prices, whether they like it or not, because of the lack of PT options.
Any improvement in roads for these people will not significantly decrease their petrol use. The only other option is to drastically reduce their car use through other means.
[zoidlord
Posted Tuesday, June 23, 2015 at 3:59 pm | PERMALINK
They will probably put a 48 flag poll next, to match their polling data.]
Perhaps they have some sort of mathematical model to calculate the number of flags at each press conference. If we could crack the formula, it would be easy to predict how many flags each time.