The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor leading 52-48 for the seventh successive week, with the primary votes showing the Coalition down a point to 41% and Labor, the Greens and Palmer United steady on 39%, 10% and 1%. Other findings:
• An occasional question on “trust in media” records lower results across the board since November, with the most trusted outlets down the most. The ABC is down six points for television to 63% and four for radio to 58%, “local newspapers” are down three to 50%, and “daily newspapers” are down five to 45%. Commercial television and radio are stable, at a respective 46% and 44% for news and current affairs and 34% for talkback.
• Opponents of same-sex marriage are found to be more likely to hold their views “very strongly”, at 46% compared with 37% for supporters. However, the latter outnumber the former 59% to 28%. Fifty-eight per cent support a conscience vote in parliament, with only 19% believing it should be set by party policy (though presumably respondents would say this about all manner of things).
• Fixty-six per cent of respondents disapproval of people smugglers being paid to take asylum seekers back to Indonesia, but a quite substantial 29% approve.
• Presented with a list of infrastructure items their state might invest in, respondents overwhelmingly favoured hospitals and health centres (74%) over all options.
[Last week you mentioned that you have the weekly data for Essential, and that the more recent of the two weeks data was more favorable to the Coalition than the week before it was. Are we to assume, from the fact that the 2 week average is still unchanged, that this week is more similar to 2 weeks ago than 1 week ago? I.e. that the weekly data shows an increase in Labor support this week compared to last?]
Wary though I am about giving too much away about what’s going on under the bonnet at Essential, this is all correct.
Mallah was found guilty of threatening to kill ASIO staff.
Turnbull now doing character assassination on the ABC and Mullah.
Remind me, what were Turnbull’s redeeming features supposed to be?
On the subject of Royal Commissions, there certainly should be one held into the conduct of refugee interdiction, trafficking and internment.
Its time
There arent any. Never forget Godwin Grech and utegate.
http://www.3aw.com.au/radio/full-interview-neil-mitchell-gets-to-know-new-greens-leader-richard-di-natale-20150623-ghvakf
Very good communicator.
Diogs,
Wasn’t that nearly a decade ago?
Has Mallah continued to be a threat or a terrorist since then?
Going on TV to make your point is not the usual modus operandi of your average terrorist.
Mallah may have been an unsavoury dislikeable character (and may still be such). However, if he follows the law and just spouts off, then he’s just another harmless crank dressed in funny clothes.
citizen @7
I’m of the opinion that Victoria has really great credit ratings now and could probably stand to take a low interest loan to pay for the entire level crossing upgrade and more.
Yeah, fantastic interview and a good omen for Greens public image http://www.3aw.com.au/radio/full-interview-neil-mitchell-gets-to-know-new-greens-leader-richard-di-natale-20150623-ghvakf
[However, if he follows the law and just spouts off, then he’s just another harmless crank dressed in funny clothes.]
Yes, but I’m not sure Pell followed the law, or was harmless.
Why Bill Shorten and Labor can afford to ignore Rupert Murdoch
22 JUNE 2015
With declining reach and influence, the Murdoch empire can no longer determine election results, writes Rodney Tiffen
http://insidestory.org.au/why-bill-shorten-and-labor-can-afford-to-ignore-rupert-murdoch
Diog
[Still they don’t have to give a platform to a nutter.]
So hopefully they don’t get Bernardi on…
On the AFR article linked to above:
[The leaked proposal brings into play the prospect of the states having to raise the GST or find another funding source by accepting that the “ongoing financial durability of this option is likely to be challenged” unless the states could fid the money by cutting back on hospital admissions and addressing shortfalls in primary care.]
I will laugh my foibled arse off if, by choking the States of funding for health and education, the Feds force them to bring in higher or more-uniform land taxes.
All LNP are doing with taxes is changing the rates to suit their mates.
Libertarian Unionist@63
Ah, I remembered the good old days when they promised they could find some savings somewhere and bring on a surplus within the first term….
[Australian property ‘bloodbath’ prediction ridiculed by economists
Amid expert predictions of similar price growth over 2015 as last year in Sydney and Melbourne, claims that a “bloodbath” is on the way for Australian property have been ridiculed as both “overdone” and “hysterical” by leading economists.]
http://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/australian-property-bloodbath-prediction-ridiculed-by-economists-20150623-ghucag.html
Hmm, who to believe? Independent economists and regulator economists or financial and industry economists with vested interests. Surely a 2% increase in interest rates will tell.
[ http://www.skynews.com.au/news/world/2015/06/22/nz-pm-criticises-paying-people-smugglers.html
NZ PM criticises paying people smugglers.
‘You are paying the very people that you find actions abhorrent and also it is slightly double dealing because people have actually paid them to go on the boat so what sort of people are we dealing with?’ ]
Oops. So much for that great new global conservative alliance.
Just can’t trust anybody, huh Tones?
Raaraa
[This argument can also be reversed in the sense that people who drive in the suburban areas outside the reach of PT will have to face the burden of increased petrol prices, whether they like it or not, because of the lack of PT options. ]
I was really talking of the huge swathes beyond the reach of any public transport options, let alone outer suburbia.
There is no way of compensating them, but better roads are helpful.
That said, I notice that in the Yarra Ranges a huge amount of money has been spent in warning signs, barriers, etc and road surface maintenance has been almost continuous. A consequence of being declared one of the most dangerous areas for traffic accidents, I believe.
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Tuesday, June 23, 2015 at 4:11 pm | Permalink
Diogs,
Wasn’t that nearly a decade ago?
Has Mallah continued to be a threat or a terrorist since then?
Going on TV to make your point is not the usual modus operandi of your average terrorist.
Mallah may have been an unsavoury dislikeable character (and may still be such). However, if he follows the law and just spouts off, then he’s just another harmless crank dressed in funny clothes. ]
He also said.
“I had done and said some stupid things, including threatening to kidnap and kill, but in 2005 I was acquitted of those terrorism charges.
“What would have happened if my case had been decided by the minister himself and not the courts?”
Doesn’t sound too radical now to me.
[43
TPOF
Just a point about the Essential poll. Even though we sort of snigger at the extreme lack of volatility it is emphasising that the 4 point difference between the Opposition and the Coalition is pretty entrenched. ]
I am glad we have a two week rolling average poll in the mix. Helps highlight the volatility of the other polls.
[ by choking the States of funding for health and education, the Feds force them to bring in higher or more-uniform land taxes. ]
And raise the GST which was supposed to replace the plethora of taxes the States can levy.
Greensborough Growler@57
Indeed, I was wondering if him going public like that might just earn him some trip somewhere else under mysterious circumstances.
I’m no fan of him, but why is there focus on him at all after he’s served his conviction and acquitted of other matters?
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the new laws passing would see him suddenly demonised, be considered a threat and deported.
Diogenes
On what basis do you say the guy is a nutter?
If it’s because he has a different value system to the typical Aussie surgeon, then count me in too.
Raaraa
I am a little concerned that the rather over-the-top reaction by the government is cheesing him off more than somewhat.
[I am glad we have a two week rolling average poll in the mix. Helps highlight the volatility of the other polls.] However that comfort is disturbed by the fact that Essential polls from a pool of respondents,not the general population.
Abbott and Dutton have a very Old Testament view of the world. Quote Abbott “once a terrorist, always a terrorist”. No redemption. Not all transgressors become career crims. Could I say “Once a bully, always a bully.”
lizzie@68
I know, I can only speak for the suburbia. I do notice that there are some plans for level crossing separation in Lilydale and along the Mountain Highway.
There must be some way we can increase road safety seeing that we are sharing the road between freight and commuter/tourist/local traffic.
Putting some freight onto rail helps, but there are locations that are far beyond the reach of rail (because of the lack of funding or terrain being too hilly) that rely on truck transport.
I haven’t seen any revolutionary way to address this yet, here or overseas, that could be applied here in Australia.
We do suffer from the tyrany of distance.
It’s Time
As an independent observer of Melbourne’s property market, I don’t believe Melbourne is on the brink of a massive record breaking bubble, sure there might be a correction, many outer suburb areas like Cragieburn appear to have minimal growth in values and the Melbourne unit market is well stocked with support ever increasing, this is resulting is little growth in the 1960 era block units which are now a long way behind local house prices.
I think Sydney has deeper issues than Melbourne.
Has you say a 2% rise in interest rates will be interesting, a side note when Melbourne’s land boom burst, it was after rates had risen by around 2%
[The so-called Islamic State would be extremely happy to hear what Steve Ciobo had to say on Q&A. It feeds into their recruitment propaganda.
Some young Australian Muslims – who were already feeling vilified – now feel they are being openly targeted by this government. They are saying they would love to leave and join jihadist groups….
They ask themselves, “Why should we Muslims live here, and be subject to this bullying, when in Iraq and Syria, Isis tell us we are welcome?” The harder the Abbott government pushes its counter-terrorism agenda, the more radicalised some young people feel…
I was acquitted of terrorism in 2005, but not because of a technicality, as Ciobo would have you believe. Instead, it was because a jury heard that I had been set up by the New South Wales police, aided and abetted by an undercover operative who paid me money to hear a good terrorism story. They decided I was not guilty of the most serious offences and no threat. I was dumb and naive at the time. I was only 20.
Years later, I’m on good terms with Asio and counter-terrorism police. I meet with them regularly, they shout me a coffee, we chat about Syria and national security. They know I’m an idiot at times, they know I like to stir the pot. They would have watched last night laughing and shaking their heads. ]
I think I rather like this guy.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/23/zaky-mallah-i-stand-by-what-i-said-on-qa-the-public-needs-to-hear-it#comments
Evidently there is a major tourism expo on in Melbourne, for the industry.
On local radio this morning, a Chamber of Commerce rep said that our local tourism industry was very well represented, and that many “great deals were done”.
Since there were “deals” done, does this mean we need a RC to look into this?
I have recently learned from the Shorten / Shepherd deal’s adverse publicity (pushed by the Abbotteers) that “doing deals” is a highly undesirable aspect of our society.
Or is “doing deals” just the exclusive given right of the big end of town?
lizzie@76
Or maybe they have a mantra that apply to some of their mates, “it’s only a crime if you get caught.”
[However that comfort is disturbed by the fact that Essential polls from a pool of respondents,not the general population.]
That is a fact. How it affects the results is an interesting question, if anybody has an answer.
Mike BairdVerified account
@mikebairdMP
In NSW, public education will always be free under any government I lead. #nswpol
[What’s far more disturbing than the predictable outrage every Tuesday morning, is how large sections of Australia seem to flirt with the idea people like Nile or Zaky Mallah should be silenced.
This is not to say trickheads like either of these men should be given their own syndicated radio show, but is Australia’s moral psychology really so fragile it can’t resist the occasional late-night cameo from the fringes of pluralist society?
…
I applaud the ABC for continuing to expose the Australian psyche to unpopular and dangerous opinions. The only thing they got wrong Monday night was Tony Jones’s cringe-worthy apology that someone actually said something unpalatable.]
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-abc-wasnt-wrong-to-have-zaky-mallah-on-qa-20150623-ghvaow.html
Thanks for lizzie @79.
I stand corrected in the sense that he can’t be deported because he’s not a dual citizen… though Mallah himself feel that the situation might change.
I’m starting to think that I need to separate the producers of Q&A from Tony Jones himself.
They’re doing the show OK as much as they can manage under the current management, but Tony Jones doesn’t seem to be helping sometimes…
[I think I rather like this guy.]
Oh no, he’s got you in his death cult clutches. Go straight to a church for exorcism or turn yourself into Asio. You are now a ticking human timebomb who might explode with good sense and equanimity at any time.
Apart from that one Ipsos poll at 50/50 all the polling is really telling us people are not all that engaged at present and the situation is pretty fixed around the 52/48 to 53/47 area. Neither side is all that loved and there are precious few alternatives now that the PUP has fallen in a hole.
Imagine living in Qld a few years back, being arrested by Plod Potatohead, and being dealt with by him in the back cell of the cop shop.
I would be far more anxious about that prospect than I would be about sitting next to the “terrorist” in the Qanda audience.
Is a “trickhead” someone you think is a “dickhead” but you are not allowed to say it?
It’s Time
We all need more humour, don’t we.
GG
[Mallah may have been an unsavoury dislikeable character (and may still be such). However, if he follows the law and just spouts off, then he’s just another harmless crank dressed in funny clothes.]
My view as well! Maybe the first time I have agreed with you :mad:!
[This is not to say trickheads like either of these men should be given their own syndicated radio show, but is Australia’s moral psychology really so fragile it can’t resist the occasional late-night cameo from the fringes of pluralist society?]
Possibly it’s fragile after overconsumption of Jones, Hadley, Bolt et al.
Maybe it would all be good if he changed his name to “Zany” Mullah.
[ Apart from that one Ipsos poll at 50/50 ]
When the best the Libs can do is a 50/50 on an outlier, i think the aggregates being firm on a really long term trend may actually be telling us something davidwh. 🙂
Could someone tell me who is in charge of the microphones in QT. Is it Bronnie? I’m assuming so.
[Apart from that one Ipsos poll at 50/50 all the polling is really telling us people are not all that engaged at present and the situation is pretty fixed around the 52/48 to 53/47 area. Neither side is all that loved and there are precious few alternatives now that the PUP has fallen in a hole.]
What a strange interpretation. A 50/50 poll shows people are engaged but all the others showing Labor ahead merely show people aren’t engaged. Talk about cherry picking.
Could it just be that the level of engagement is consistently low but when forced to make a decision more people prefer Labor?
The current 2PP of 52+ is almost exactly the vote that gave the ALP a win in 2007.
I’d be happy with a repeat of that.
Labor: The govt has distributed details of possible cuts to hospitals. How will this affect Emergency visits?
Bronnie: That’s speculation and is not allowed.
Libs: If the Opposition get into government they will have their hands in your trouser pockets all the time.
Bronnie: Purr, purr, purr.
[It’s Time
We all need more humour, don’t we.]
If you can’t laugh at Abbott’s clowns you’d cry.
imacca #94
You forgot to add that Ipsos has a presumably pro-Coalition house effect of about 1 TPP point.
Though I am using Kevin Bonham’s numbers there.