The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a good deal less encouraging for the government than last month’s tied result on two-party preferred, with Labor recording a 53-47 lead (or 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences). The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down three), 37% for Labor (up two) and 14% for the Greens (up one). It’s also the first poll in a while to show Bill Shorten in front on preferred prime minister, his 44-39 deficit of last month turning into a lead of 42-41. Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 40% and up four on disapproval to 54%, while Bill Shorten is respectively steady on 41% and up two to 47%. The poll also found 68% in support of same-sex marriage with only 25% opposed. It was conducted from Thursday to Saturday, from a sample of 1400.
UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan result is the weakest since February for the Coalition, who are down 3.5% on the primary vote to 37.5% – level with Labor, who are up half a point, with the Greens also up half a point to 13.5%. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is 54.5-45.5 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, respectively compared with 53-47 and 52-48 a fortnight ago.
guytaur
Morrison does not support ssm
victoria
Neither did Gillard. The question is would Morrison allow a free vote? That is if he becomes leader. He is one of those not saying much and he may be implicated if these alleged payments go back far enough.
Raaraa @ 141 – I’m inclined to thinking the 50-50 result was an outlier, simply because Labor’s vote in NSW was absurdly low.
guytaur
Abbott is a shocker, and the rest of them arent much bettet
After the weekend checking out the RRL open day at Tarneit, if this goes through, it would be great news.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/federal-government-opens-door-to-funding-melbourne-metro-rail-tunnel-20150614-ghnm61.html
[Ta for those giving Insiders as the source of the Stutchbury comments, watching it now.]
KB, if you’re still reading, the joke’s on you. From memory it was Stutchbury’s “final observation” at the end of the show.
guytaur – Morrison has been the one saying that we need to take a break from talking about ssm. I think that indicates he would not support a free vote. I don’t think he’d talk about it.
SF @ 142
[problem is – Shorten is seen as ‘the same’ as abbott and doesn’t inspire confidence.]
Not unexpected. They will look for some justification to vote Liberal at the next election even if they do have to hold their noses. But they will not be the people who determine the next Government.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jun/14/federal-frontbencher-mark-butler-elected-labor-party-president-reports
What does this mean for Labor? Is this a good thing for the left?
victoria
The only two we can say with leadership credentials that are open to implication in this payments thing are Turnbull and Pyne.
Bishop – hears from Indonesia
Morrison/Dutton fairly obvious
Hockey/ Cormann Where is the money
Keenan _ Federal police on board boats?
etc
victoria @ #148
yes – you are right. but I think abbott wouldn’t mind a few more boats to beat his chest over. he has nothing else. did anyone see him the other week in parliament answer a question about how ‘fair’ the budget was when it cuts family benefits to many low income families? – he started “I’ll tell you what’s fair – stopping the boats.” he’s got nothing else.
it is staggering how low he is prepared to go, and terrifying that this xenophobic shit wins swinging votes.
Re JD @146: …Eden-Monaro (0.6%)
Eden Monaro includes many Public Servants living just over the border in Queanbeyan and suburbs. They must know that the Abbott Government hates them. A swing of 0.6% should be a doddle.
oops not open to
Raaraa – Butler was Minister for Climate Change and the Environment for a short while in 2013. He’s a good lefty.
https://www.facebook.com/leahycartoons/photos/a.383353882687.164941.321732052687/10152935272987688/?type=1&theater
Leahy has something to say about the smugglers being paid allegations.
JimmyDoyle@164
That much I know, just curious what sort of direction the national conference might see.
sf
nope. Abbott doesnt want more boats. He has built his whole edifice on stopping the boats. Stopping them only by paying people smugglers. It is a disaster for him, if this is indeed the case.
2 new leaders by august??
when will swing to labor begin??
@KieraGorden: Getting a VERY strong feeling his PM’ship is almost over – Abbott’s tangled web over paying people smugglers: http://t.co/C5sNY0duyK #AusPol
Raaraa – well two things: Butler is in favour of rules reform of the party to reduce the ability of factions to manipulate rules in their favour (i.e. increase party democracy), and he’s also against reducing links between the ALP and the unions. I believe he’s also in favour of automatic party membership for union members.
[After the weekend checking out the RRL open day at Tarneit, if this goes through, it would be great new]
speaking of tarneit – I heard a rumour that before the vic election, labor were scratching their heads and wondering why Dennis didn’t open the Tarneit line – the project was started by labor, but completed on the libs watch ahead of schedule and below budget. it was a great good news story, and labor couldn’t work out why the libs weren’t exploiting it. coming into power labor found that the libs – in ordert to keep the slimmest ‘surplus’ – hadn’t followed through and ordered the trains needed to open the line.
imagine the herald-sun headlines if labor did something as stupid as this?
Re SS @171: sounds like a plot out of “Yes Minister”.
Goodnight
BlurbUllage no problem all is good.
And a goodnight from me
Shorten is seen as ‘the same’ as abbott and doesn’t inspire confidence.
—amen what did we do to deserve him and why does he think he can do it —
Re Victoria @167: Abbott’s refusal to deny “Pay the Boats” means that it’s happening. The only question is when did it start and how often has it happened.
labor and shorten are wedged —– not proactive – poll should be 58-42/// when will swing to labor begin?
geoffrey – showing your true colours when you’re agreeing with the hard right Libs, methinks.
Steve777
I posted a piece earlier, from last year. The suggestion was that 100 boats had made their way to Aus last year. Yes, the question is how many were turned back by paying people smugglers?
This is a question that needs to be answered.
Anyhoo night all
Geoffrey this government is every bit as disfunctional, more so, that the previous government and the polls should be consistently more in favour of Labor.
I’m not convinced it’s Shorten’s leadership though. Perhaps it takes longer than 2 years for buyers remorse to set in fully.
[125
Simon Katich
You could toast a marshmallow over the next cabinet meeting.]
Will Australia’s participation in the human trafficking industry come up at Cabinet? Will Cabinet leak again?
Unless something emerges from the Trade Union Witchhunt, which I think is unlikely, I believe that Bill Shorten’s leadership is secure until the next election.
Goodnight all.
Sustainable future@171
What bothers me most about all of this is now the total cost for the RRL now has come up to be in the low $3 billions, a bit lower than what Brumby came up with, and much lower than what the Libs claimed it was blowing up to.
Of course, the Libs are going to say that it’s their cost cutting that made it low, but the outcome is lower than the prediction that they think it would be after their modifications.
Of course, first we had the lack of rolling stock which pushed the opening 2 months back, and the crucial Werribee link to Wyndham Vale, which sees the Werribee line cut off from Geelong. This means that people who live in Geelong and work in Melbourne’s South West (Werribee, Altona, Newport, etc) and vice versa will have to rely on a bus connection between Werribee and Wyndham Vale.
We do not know yet when this connection will be made, if any, but the reservations are there should the government want to fill the gap.
Ispos getting a run in Fairfax: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/voters-drift-away-from-tony-abbott-amid-worsening-housing-affordability-crisis-and-samesex-marriage-debate-20150614-ghnofr.html
It’s interesting that the top story on the SMH website is the bad polling for Abbott. Headline: “PM Under Pressure – voters drifting away.”
The second story is “Abbott’s tangled web” – about the bribes.
Maybe I’m imagining things but this is starting to feel like the days of media-fuelled instability for the previous Labor Government.
geoffrey – showing your true colours when you’re agreeing with the hard right Libs, methinks.
—–ha yes i am a closet liberal for sure for sure
JimmyDoyle@170
Not a union member myself, but I don’t see what is in the fuss with the automatic membership. One could always withdraw if they’re not happy with the fees.
DW @ 182
I think it takes towards the end of a term before most voters seriously turn their minds to who they will vote for. At this stage I think those who are not committed to Labor or the left have been willing to give Abbott and his clowns the benefit of the doubt as to whether they can actually become a good government. But I think the benefit is starting to run out.
I said in an earlier post that voters will certainly throw an Abbott led government out of office and will probably throw it out if led by someone else, even Turnbull. The key would be whether the party would unite behind the new leader. My strong expectation is that it wouldn’t – there are too many factions and conflicts within the party.
All the polling has limited value until an election is actually due or called early. Polling aggregates give an indication of how the government is travelling, but does not truly reflect the likely outcome until most voters actually focus on the issues and the competing parties. Abbott is extraordinarily vulnerable – even more than Julia Gillard was – to any comparison between his promises and his actual record. And even without him, the Coalition is still vulnerable.
geoffrey – not a closet Liberal, necessarily. But your allies speak for themselves on Shorten.
The whingers at the Daily Tele are at it again.
This time there’s no Julia Gillard to kick around… and NO COMPENSATION being paid.
[One Big Switch: Let’s make sure power companies pass on savings to consumers
ELECTRICITY providers are under growing pressure to give NSW households a break on July 1, with consumer network One Big Switch today launching a campaign to force the companies to pass on savings to customers.
Over the past eight years the average NSW power bill has doubled to about $2000, but the state government and unions are resisting a decision by the national regulator to slash bills by up to $300 annually.
…
Charmaine Eyers lives in Auburn with her husband Justin and two children, Benji, 3, and Jacob, 4. She said the family power bill was a huge burden and seemed to increase despite their efforts to cut usage.
“It is between $500 and $800 a quarter. That is with us trying to do the right thing, saving power where we can,” Mrs Eyers said.
She said a saving of $100 to $300 a year would make a big difference.
“It would really help us. It would give us a break,” Mrs Eyers said.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/one-big-switch-lets-make-sure-power-companies-pass-on-savings-to-consumers/story-fni0cx4q-1227397564909 ]
Of course they blame the unions first, and only then, Mike Baird… but that’s par for the course.
And this time the saving they’re demanding isn’t a paltry few bucks blamed on the Carbon Tax. It’s a whopping $300.
I shudder to think how easily the Charmaines and Justins of this world are led by the nose. And how easily the Tele dupes them… every time.
$100-$300/year as a saving…..hmmm.
Well, that would buy, what, a coffee-and-cake special once a week at a cafe? Half a kilo of mince once a week?
It adds up, to be sure, but it’s not as dramatic as, say, a 0.25% interest rate hike would be on a Sydney couple owing $500k on their broom-closet….errrrm, “home”.
Also, how are the unions involved? Or is the Tele taking any chance to beat the workers down?
[At this stage I think those who are not committed to Labor or the left have been willing to give Abbott and his clowns the benefit of the doubt as to whether they can actually become a good government.]
It’s because so many of them voted for him. It’s called “confirmation bias”. You buy a dud product that doesn’t work, but you have to justify the purchase by continuing to claim it’s just fine.
You’re just about at the end of your tether trying to get some productivity out of the damn thing, but all it’s got to do is make the right noises and you’re happy again… for a while.
Eventually you chuck it out with the rest of the junk on Council Clean-Up Day.
Let us hope that the next election is such a day, but for the moment punters haven’t suffered enough. Labor and the Greens shielded them from the worst of Abbott by voting the more stupid of his brain farts down in the Senate. There’s a good case they should decline to do so in the face of future outrages.
Unfortunately this leaves them open to being blamed by the Tele, with Abbott completely exonerated, but eventually the penny’s got to drop.
[190
Raaraa
Not a union member myself, but I don’t see what is in the fuss with the automatic membership. One could always withdraw if they’re not happy with the fees.]
I think it’s a great idea. It’s crucial to getting more people with life experience into the party and membership (and hopefully into parliaments). The important thing about the automatic union membership plan is that it waives the cost of joining the party. It removes that hassle for a lot people, and as you say people can simply opt-out if they wish.
The union movement is critical to the Labor Party – just look at the role they played at the last Victorian election. Any measures that solidify that relationship and force both the Party and the union movement to modernise and adapt is a good thing.
A convenient side benefit is that is will cause considerable pain and disruption for some of the… “less representative” unions such as the SDA (which hates the automatic membership plan).
BB
but but but…Abbott got rid of the carbon tax – electrickery should be free!
TPOF @ 190 – I agree. Conventional wisdom would suggest that as the election gets closer, polling will narrow in favour of the Government. Given this Government’s performance, Labor’s low-key approach, and the benefit-of-the-doubt that a lot people have given Abbott, then if anything, I think the polling could widen as the election approaches.
JimmyDoyle@196
And thus SDA can keep it into some sort of exclusive club if they attract only certain characters. Not helpful to the Labor party at all if the SDA keep at it.
JimmyDoyle
Posted Monday, June 15, 2015 at 12:32 am | PERMALINK
TPOF @ 190 – I agree. Conventional wisdom would suggest that as the election gets closer, polling will narrow in favour of the Government. Given this Government’s performance, Labor’s low-key approach, and the benefit-of-the-doubt that a lot people have given Abbott, then if anything, I think the polling could widen as the election approaches.
——–it should already be widened ……. low key approach is very risky