Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

The latest poll from Ipsos records Labor and Bill Shorten rebounding from a soft result last month.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a good deal less encouraging for the government than last month’s tied result on two-party preferred, with Labor recording a 53-47 lead (or 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences). The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down three), 37% for Labor (up two) and 14% for the Greens (up one). It’s also the first poll in a while to show Bill Shorten in front on preferred prime minister, his 44-39 deficit of last month turning into a lead of 42-41. Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 40% and up four on disapproval to 54%, while Bill Shorten is respectively steady on 41% and up two to 47%. The poll also found 68% in support of same-sex marriage with only 25% opposed. It was conducted from Thursday to Saturday, from a sample of 1400.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan result is the weakest since February for the Coalition, who are down 3.5% on the primary vote to 37.5% – level with Labor, who are up half a point, with the Greens also up half a point to 13.5%. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is 54.5-45.5 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, respectively compared with 53-47 and 52-48 a fortnight ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

860 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. @ lefty, 847

    Yep. There’s been a long period of pretty much stagnation at that level – the individual results have just been a bit noisy, bouncing around within the MoE.

    All these latest few should change on BludgerTrack is the primary votes – Coalition and Labor down a bit, Greens and others up a bit.

  2. I predict onwatergate will have no affect on polling either way, this week or next week. Its not a vote changer. Looks like the aggregate polling isn’t going to shift much for any reason, despite recent blowups.

  3. Is it just me, or is there something hugely obscene about the Speaker of the House Of Representatives spruiking the government line and criticising the Opposition so openly and shamelessly?

  4. Re Newspoll: Labor 34 (barely improved from 2013) doesn’t look right – too low. On the other hand Greens 14 looks too high.

    Still, all recent polls are within MOE of 52:48 2PP, some higher, so lower, Morgan and last Month’s Ispos seem to be at upper and lower limits.

    So basically no change.

  5. Could it be that the disgruntled NewsPoll employees, pink slips in hand, are ‘pissing in the punch’?

    Leaving their bad employer with a bad polling reputation.

  6. True Blue

    Have you really stopped the boats, the problem is if the government cannot be straight about did it or did it not pay the people smugglers then that raises all sorts of questions about this government so please keep telling me that you have stopped the boats and I will read US$30,000

    Time for some honesty, if it truly believes that its the right policy then it should proudly say yep and the result is X Y Z but no what we have is this silly childish game.

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