Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

The latest poll from Ipsos records Labor and Bill Shorten rebounding from a soft result last month.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a good deal less encouraging for the government than last month’s tied result on two-party preferred, with Labor recording a 53-47 lead (or 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences). The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down three), 37% for Labor (up two) and 14% for the Greens (up one). It’s also the first poll in a while to show Bill Shorten in front on preferred prime minister, his 44-39 deficit of last month turning into a lead of 42-41. Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 40% and up four on disapproval to 54%, while Bill Shorten is respectively steady on 41% and up two to 47%. The poll also found 68% in support of same-sex marriage with only 25% opposed. It was conducted from Thursday to Saturday, from a sample of 1400.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan result is the weakest since February for the Coalition, who are down 3.5% on the primary vote to 37.5% – level with Labor, who are up half a point, with the Greens also up half a point to 13.5%. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is 54.5-45.5 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, respectively compared with 53-47 and 52-48 a fortnight ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

860 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. TBA

    You twit.

    The boats aren’t illegal

    They haven’t stopped

    They can’t be stopped

    What bit of this sad story don’t you get?

  3. TBA they’ve been stopped. How do you know? It is only hear say (as you put it).

    They may be arriving but because it is all hush hush you won’t be told.

  7. [“TBA they’ve been stopped. How do you know?”]

    Well if they haven’t been stopped where are all the people? Hanging out with Elvis?

    So sick of lame conspiracy theories from the left.

    The boats have been stopped. Everything else is just fluff.

  10. [Greg Jericho ‏@GrogsGamut 2h2 hours ago
    Greg Jericho retweeted Guardian Australia
    Abbott Sept 2013: “Indonesia is a land of promise for us and we do not want the relationship to be defined by boats”

    Greg Jericho ‏@GrogsGamut 2h2 hours ago
    Abbott, Sept 2013 “We absolutely and fully respect Indonesia’s sovereignty and wouldn’t do anything to undermine it”]

  11. WeWantPaul @666:

    [An increase in the GST rate to 12.5% would extrapolating out the second half of 2014 produce an extra 6.75 billion pa (unadjusted for growth etc) labor should run with it (and not to give straight to the states show leadership and break the stupid connection with the states for the new portion.]

    What an apt comment number! As well, you very handily demonstrate your lack of understanding of the vertical fiscal imbalance afflicting Australia.

    I would want any extra money raised from GST hikes to go to the States, on the understanding that Commonwealth-State grants will be reduced by (at least) a portion of the extra.

    The States have more money. The Commonwealth has less obligations to fund State services. Both governments win – and so, ultimately, does the taxpayer if it’s done right.

  19. [Expecting Newspoll to be contrary and move to the Libs just because.]

    …just because

    although I’m waiting for confirmation from James J or Ghost, we’ve had early wrong numbers before

  22. Newspoll

    51-49 2PP to Labor

    Coalition 40, Labor 34, Greens 14, Others 12

    Abbott: Satisfied 34, Dissatisfied 56
    Shorten: Satisfied 28, Dissatisfied 54

    Better PM: Abbott 41, Shorten 38

  26. I noticed Ross Cameron said it was 51-49 a little while ago on twitter in response to someone who was baiting him, didn’t put it here as I dodn’t know how serious he was.

  27. [Katharine Murphy ‏@murpharoo 2m2 minutes ago
    Does Madam Speaker thinks she’s chairing proceedings tonight? #qanda]

    How unsurprisement!

  30. So we’re back to the general vicinity of 52-48 anyway. No big surprise. The consistent message of a small bump for the Greens is noticeable though.

    Labor’s primary vote is very low indeed in that Newspoll to be leading on 2PP.

  32. The boats policy is a disaster for this country. It has led us into:

    – the criminal trafficking human cargoes into captivity in another State
    – the arbitrary imprisonment of refugees in abysmal conditions in the territories of our clients
    – the adoption of secrecy and denial as instruments of policy
    – the suppression of free publication of information concerning the forcible and at times violent maltreatment of persons for whom we are responsible
    – the purposeful vilification of people who have committed no offences
    – the calculated deprivation of almost all normal rights of judicial redress

    This is a depraved policy of exemplary violence conceived and carried out by ruthless, deceitful and cruel men.

    We will rue the day it was ever instigated. There should be a Royal Commission into these depravities.

  33. “@MariamVeiszadeh: Luca Belgiorno-Nettis, the only non-lawyer on the panel puts Bronwyn Bishop in her place! Nicely done. #QandA”

  36. Told you the Govt don’t care if the boats are in the news. Even if they have paid off smugglers. They don’t care. Boats = poll advantage.

  37. @ briefly, 832

    Hear hear. The only just destination for Abbott, Morrison and Dutton is the Hague, to be honest.

  38. Darn I don’t believe Morgan’s 37.5 for the Coalition either so we should just split the difference and say it’s still 52/48.

  39. [“The only statistically significant change in Newspoll is a 3% fall in Labor’s primary vote.”]

    Ouch! Thats what happens when you jump in bed with Indonesia

  41. Two questions:

    1. This is still the old Newspoll isn’t it?

    2. Hasn’t the old Newspoll consistently had the Labor pv lower than the other polls?

  42. @ davidwh, 838

    Yes, I found the 37.5 a little hard to believe myself. I buy Ipsos’ primary vote figures more than the other two polls – despite the objections raised to the methodology.

  43. @ Darn, 841

    To your first question – yes, this is the last one (if memory serves) before Galaxy takes over. To your second, it’s been known to happen.

  45. Wasn’t it the Fibs who argued that people smugglers help fund ISIS ?
    therefore The Abbott “government”, by bribing the people smugglers is also helping to fund ISIS

  46. [It’s obvious the govt has not stopped the boats. They’ve merely chartered them]

    that’s gold. shorten should give it the zinger treatment.

    hard to believe the newspoll showing no change and fall in labor’s primary vote – how much of the polling was done before JoHo opened his cakehole?

  47. [The polls are all over the shop, just like the government.]

    Not really, the poll average is pretty solid around 52-48 to the ALP, just like Bludgertrack says.

    Election held this weekend, Abbott loses office. Same as for the last 18 months.

  49. Between Bishop and the pontificating Pearson this Q and A is virtually unwatchable. As usual Jones allows the govt rep to dominate and continually interrupt with impunity.

  50. “@Thefinnigans: Separation of Power to Bronnie is where she has to the power to separate the Opposition MPs #qanda”

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