Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

The latest poll from Ipsos records Labor and Bill Shorten rebounding from a soft result last month.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a good deal less encouraging for the government than last month’s tied result on two-party preferred, with Labor recording a 53-47 lead (or 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences). The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down three), 37% for Labor (up two) and 14% for the Greens (up one). It’s also the first poll in a while to show Bill Shorten in front on preferred prime minister, his 44-39 deficit of last month turning into a lead of 42-41. Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 40% and up four on disapproval to 54%, while Bill Shorten is respectively steady on 41% and up two to 47%. The poll also found 68% in support of same-sex marriage with only 25% opposed. It was conducted from Thursday to Saturday, from a sample of 1400.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan result is the weakest since February for the Coalition, who are down 3.5% on the primary vote to 37.5% – level with Labor, who are up half a point, with the Greens also up half a point to 13.5%. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is 54.5-45.5 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, respectively compared with 53-47 and 52-48 a fortnight ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

860 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. How ironic, all those lies claiming asylum seekers were illegal immigrants and it turns out the government is a criminal gang bribing people smugglers.

  2. 7.30 is on track.

    “Labor did it (didn’t they?)”

    “You can’t charge spies” (The Benson Defence)

    “Nyah nayah, nayh-nyah nyah!”

    “Sabrah Lane ‘reporting'” … more like shilling.

  3. “@shanebazzi: “Sources in Indonesia & Aus have confirmed navy ship that intercepted the asylum seekers was HMAS Wollongong, Armidale Class Patrol Boat 92″”

  4. [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, June 15, 2015 at 7:38 pm | PERMALINK
    7.30 is on track.

    “Labor did it (didn’t they?)”

    “You can’t charge spies” (The Benson Defence)

    “Nyah nayah, nayh-nyah nyah!”

    “Sabrah Lane ‘reporting’” … more like shilling.]

    It seems like the ABC news and 7.30 are aiming for the redneck audience that listen to the daytime shock jocks.

  5. poroti:

    Interesting. I recall seeing him tweet that his Sky show was moving to the daytime because he wanted nights at home with the family. But that was only a couple of weeks ago, so it didn’t last long in a new timeslot!

  6. guytaur #745
    That’s interesting, because I wonder how exactly he’ll define this little caveat.

    If he thinks that it’ll work because he defines ‘borders’ as areas of complete, Australian Sovereignty (i.e. States and Territories), thinking that because payments weren’t made on Australian soil, and thus don’t the potential offence doesn’t apply if it’s an intelligence operation; I’m afraid it wont work.

    The Ashmore Reef (Formally known as the Ashmore and Cartier Islands) are an external territory under Australian Sovereignty; and thus any illegal activity, spy or no spy, is punishable under Australian Law.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashmore_and_Cartier_Islands

  7. From PVO
    “Refusing to details operational particulars is one thing, and valid”

    Well … perhaps, maybe, possibly
    But not definitely or without examination.
    Merely claiming such is entirely insufficient in itself.

  8. I don’t think I mentioned. David Marr on the Drum stated flat out that of course the payments happened.

    So far no word of a lawsuit against him Fairfax and the ABC.

  9. People smugglers money is going to terrorists warns Ms Bishop.

    ‘Abbott’s Cash for ISIL’? Uh, no. Um, ‘Abbott’s Cash for Al Qaeda’? Sort of. Nearly there. How about ‘Abbott’s Cash for Heshbollah’? Uh, does not rhyme.

    Well, how about ‘Abbott’s Cash for Daesh’?

  10. [ Namely intelligence officers are not accountable legally for actions they take outside our borders. ]

    A minister is not an intelligence officer. If the minister authorized the payments then the minister needs to be answerable for that .

  11. That is, any criminal offence committed on or around the Ashmore and Cartier Islands is an offence punishable under Australian Law, spy or no spy.

  12. [It seems like the ABC news and 7.30 are aiming for the redneck audience that listen to the daytime shock jocks.]

    Just imagine if this had happened under Labor’s watch. As it is they are insinuating that the same payments could have been made, so two wrongs make a right. Along with the spy defence, truly dire reporting from a profoundly compromised public broadcaster.

  13. Millenial @ 761: Application of laws in extermal territories is a tricky subject. For example, under section 2B of the Acts Interpretation Act 1901, the term “Commonwealth”, when used in a geographical sense, includes Christmas Island and Cocos (Keeling) Islands, but doesn’t include the other external territories. And section 15B has more to say about the coastal sea of external territories.

  14. davidwh,

    [So where do they buy petrol in the middle of the Indian Ocean?]

    Surely there would be more than a few shell stations out there?

  15. From a distance I think Abbott is more than happy to have this debate RE funding people smugglers running amok. It’s taken pressure off them over housing bubbles, SSM, more troops to Iraq, coal is good wind is bad, Triggs assassination and all matter of other stuff ups.

    No one cares anymore about anything other than their day to day worries of .., well that’s all been said before.

    Until Australia has finished redefining itself as a nation we can’t expect anything better to happen. A bit like defeating alcoholism, sometimes you need to hit an all time low to realise where you are at and then build upwards towards better things.

    Let us hope the low is now.

  16. [Acerbic Conehead
    Posted Monday, June 15, 2015 at 8:18 pm | PERMALINK
    davidwh,

    So where do they buy petrol in the middle of the Indian Ocean?

    Surely there would be more than a few shell stations out there?]

    You can find all sorts of things using Google Maps. Our esteemed government would not have given the people smugglers petrol money unless there was a petrol station nearby.

  17. pedant #768
    I can’t be sure this is up-to-date information, but the Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development says that Commonwealth laws are applicable to the Ashmore and Cartier Islands, as well as NT laws and Governor-General ordinances.

    [The Territory was accepted from Britain in 1933 and responsibility for the administration was transferred from the Northern Territory to the Commonwealth when self-government was instituted in the Northern Territory in 1978.

    Petroleum extraction activities in the area adjacent to the Territory are administered on behalf of the Commonwealth by the Northern Territory Department of Mines and Energy.

    Commonwealth laws, laws of the Northern Territory and Ordinances made by the Governor-General make up the body of law applicable in the Territory of Ashmore and Cartier Islands.]

    http://www.regional.gov.au/territories/ashmore_cartier/index.aspx

  18. The BBC tells it like it is:

    [Pressure is growing for an inquiry into whether Australian officials used tax payers’ money to turn back a boat carrying asylum seekers…

    Ministers in the Australian government have come out with varying responses. Some have denied the allegations, others refused to comment, while Immigration Minister Peter Dutton at first denied the allegation but then said the government did not comment on specific cases.]

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-33130476

  19. Millenial @ 775: Much will depend on how laws are drafted. For example, if a law says something will not be an offence if committed outside “the Commonwealth”, it won’t be an offence if committed on Ashmore Reef (unless a contrary intention appears).

  20. mikeh:

    Yes I hope Labor focus on housing costs in QT tomorrow. I think enough questions have been raised about the high seas payoff and hopefully the media will keep pursuing it. (she says, not actually believing that will happen, but still)

  21. The new Abbott defence – “It wasn’t taxpayers’ money we gave to the people smugglers. It came from the North Sydney Forum.”

  22. excellent show on ABC right now about global coal trends – China’s demand for imported coals is dropping, an it isnt going to change.

    Thats a WAKE UP CALL for Australia.

    Coal is on the way out. Hear the message, and move on.

    This is what a good capitalist does.

  23. “excellent show on ABC right now about global coal trends – China’s demand for imported coals is dropping, an it isnt going to change.

    Thats a WAKE UP CALL for Australia.

    Coal is on the way out. Hear the message, and move on.”

    But But, Tony told me that Coal is good for humanity.

  24. [
    TrueBlueAussie
    Posted Monday, June 15, 2015 at 4:21 pm | Permalink

    …..

    In that case this who bribed smuggler business has been a roaring success.
    ]

    At 53 to labor I am not sure they need the Liberals support; but I am sure they would be happy to accept more of your rouring successes.

  25. Regarding that Glebe social/affordable housing project now in the press.

    That site had public housing on it (100’S), demolished about 3/4 years ago. Since then the site has sat almost vacant apart from some earthworks recently.

    Now it is being put up as a new model for affordable housing etc.

    No discussion since then, it’s a Liberal state government cover up and once the smoke settles I bet you no poor people live there.

  26. “@PmPaulKeating: #auspol nice. “Coal investment, not only denying science, it’s denying data.” Valerie Rockefeller”

  27. Refusing to go into details just means someone screwed up somewhere, and those that be are too piss weak to reveal it.

  28. [mikehilliard
    Posted Monday, June 15, 2015 at 9:04 pm | PERMALINK
    Regarding that Glebe social/affordable housing project now in the press.

    That site had public housing on it (100′S), demolished about 3/4 years ago. Since then the site has sat almost vacant apart from some earthworks recently.

    Now it is being put up as a new model for affordable housing etc.

    No discussion since then, it’s a Liberal state government cover up and once the smoke settles I bet you no poor people live there.]

    Ch 7 and Ch7 news (NSW/ACT editions) have almost nightly “news” items on great things Baird is going to do, using computer animations presumably supplied by the government. How this political PR can be called news I don’t know but the TV channels present it as such.

  29. pedant #780
    I just read – Acts Interpretation Acts 1901, Section 15B – and it says:

    Coastal sea of external Territory:

    (3) An Act that is in force in an external Territory is taken to have effect in, and in relation to, the coastal sea of the Territory as if that coastal sea were part of the Territory.

    (3A) A reference in an Act to all or any of the external Territories (whether or not one or more particular Territories are referred to) is taken to include a reference to the coastal sea of any Territory to which the reference relates.

    Definition

    (4) In this section, coastal sea :

    (a) in relation to Australia, means:

    [(i) the territorial sea of Australia; and

    (ii) the sea on the landward side of the territorial sea of Australia and not within the limits of a State or internal Territory;

    and includes the airspace over, and the sea-bed and subsoil beneath, any such sea; and]

    (b) in relation to an external Territory, means:

    [(i) the territorial sea adjacent to the Territory; and

    (ii) the sea on the landward side of the territorial sea adjacent to the Territory and not within the limits of the Territory;

    and includes the airspace over, and the sea-bed and subsoil beneath, any such sea.]

    So, if the payment occurred in the Territorial waters, then as you say, it will depend on how certain laws are drafted.
    http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/aia1901230/s15b.html

    However, I might have found some clarifying information in this Act:

    Crimes at Sea Act 2000
    http://www.comlaw.gov.au/Details/C2014C00290

    It defines the application of criminal Law within and outside the adjacent area (i.e. coastal areas) of each State and Territory.

    No conclusive information just yet, but if you don’t mind having a read through I would be grateful.

  30. The Abbott Government has stopped the illegal boats.

    They have stopped arriving. They’ve been stopped.

  31. [The Abbott Government has stopped the illegal boats.

    They have stopped arriving. They’ve been stopped.]

    Boats. Stop. Stopped. Boats stopped. Stop boats.

  32. TBA #795
    It isn’t illegal for asylum seekers to come by boat – it’s allowed under the Refugee Convention.

  33. citizen

    Baird is invisible for us.

    We just happen to live in the vicinity of some of the most expensive brown fields sites in Australia.

    $$$$ are to be made and the character of Sydney will go, bit by bit despite the best attempts by architects and planners who really care, just look at Barangaroo.

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