Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

The latest poll from Ipsos records Labor and Bill Shorten rebounding from a soft result last month.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a good deal less encouraging for the government than last month’s tied result on two-party preferred, with Labor recording a 53-47 lead (or 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences). The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down three), 37% for Labor (up two) and 14% for the Greens (up one). It’s also the first poll in a while to show Bill Shorten in front on preferred prime minister, his 44-39 deficit of last month turning into a lead of 42-41. Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 40% and up four on disapproval to 54%, while Bill Shorten is respectively steady on 41% and up two to 47%. The poll also found 68% in support of same-sex marriage with only 25% opposed. It was conducted from Thursday to Saturday, from a sample of 1400.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan result is the weakest since February for the Coalition, who are down 3.5% on the primary vote to 37.5% – level with Labor, who are up half a point, with the Greens also up half a point to 13.5%. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is 54.5-45.5 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, respectively compared with 53-47 and 52-48 a fortnight ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

860 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. QT will be interesting Labor will be confident and the LNP not so.

    Will Speaker Bishop surpass her record on red cards?

  2. So who was that journo speculating irrelevantly about Abbott pulling further ahead as PPM in this one? Anyone got a link or transcript? Nose deserves to be rubbed in it. 🙂

  3. From the last…

    [2403
    mari

    Briefly2297

    And did you pass muster???

    Went on to post-graduate studies and am still acquiring new understandings 🙂 ]

  4. After four weeks of no change my aggregate’s been smacked around by 1.1 points by this one but we’ll see how much of that survives til midnight tomorrow.

    Ipsos have been rather volatile so far – admittedly from a small sample.

  5. Do Fairfax usually wait until tomorrow’s print editions to publicly release the results? Thought there might be some spin on the websites already, but no.

  6. Ipsos would have been more favourable for the government if they had surveyed the happy recipients of the USD 5,000!

  7. [ed klein
    9m9 minutes ago
    ed klein ‏@edklein_
    If you had stopped the boats there would be no need to #paytheboats. What’s happening out there @TonyAbbottMHR ? #auspol #boatgate]

  8. [Maybe the Liberals will upset our expectations and put Potato Head in. Wouldn’t that be fun.]

    oooh please please please please please

  9. Quote from Jimmy Doyle at the end of the last thread:

    [briefly – and just who the heck would replace Captain Chaos? Truffles? An overblown lightweight if there ever was one, and hated by his own party. Mesma/Asbestos Julie? A Thatcher wannabe dud. Devious Morriscum? A more thoroughly unlikable person I’ve not heard of, not to mention that he’s a happy clapper]

    And there is the problem for the Clown Circus. The only thing keeping the pretenders in check and not slashing each other to death is the fact that the guy who won the last election is still ringmaster. If he goes it’s on for young and old, with backbiting, unrestrained ambition and dirty tricks aplenty.

    A whole world of pain awaits this Circus – whether he stays or goes or continues on as some sort of political zombie (of the horror movie kind).

  10. Stutchbury said this on Insiders in the “final observations and predictions” section, but the transcript can’t capture the misplaced pleasure he took in saying it.

    Opinion polls have shown the Opposition has clawed it back to even or behind. Next 24 hours we get the IPSOS poll, the other thing will be to check whether, as is last time, Abbott is in front of Shorten as preferred PM or doing a better job. That might play into leadership on the Labor side of politics.

  11. This may well be the next big dip for the government. They have been doing badly in the past week or so.

    This has a good chance of being the dip that causes the Libs to decide to dump Abbott. If Abbott calls an election to head off a leadership challenge and it is a DD (there are 2 potential triggers of disputable constitutionality that were voted down once each on either side of the Senate changeover in the middle of 2014) then, because of the minimum campaign period, the new Senate terms would start on the 1st of July this year rather than last.

  12. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/abbott-hockey-and-dutton-kick-own-goals-20150614-ghnhyp.html
    [Abbott, Hockey and Dutton kick own goals
    June 14, 2015 – 9:00PM
    The government is being seen – especially in Sydney – as increasingly out of touch on same-sex marriage, housing affordability and citizenship

    EDITORIAL

    And the winner is … nobody, least of all voters. The latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll shows what happens when a government won’t tackle policy problems, looks devoid of empathy and comes across as out of touch with community values. It also shows what happens when an opposition leader struggles to capitalise.

    The post-budget bounce the Abbott government enjoyed in May has vanished, thanks in part to wavering support in NSW.

    The performance of Prime Minister Tony Abbott, Treasurer Joe Hockey and Immigration Minister Peter Dutton seems to have riled voters.]
    Great example of how random movements in polling can generate media *analysis* – the May Ipsos NSW sample looked way too low for the ALP, as Mark Riley pointed out at the time, but now its “wavered,” i.e. gone back to reality.

    https://twitter.com/Riley7News/status/600099300081672192

  13. Looks like Abbott might finally have jumped the shark as I suggested. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. It’s only one poll.

  14. Hockey has shot his Government again (from the article posted by Leroy Lynch):

    On affordable housing, too, Mr Hockey looks to have offended Sydney voters, in particular, by saying they should just get a better job that pays more if they want to enter the housing market, while ignoring the effect of growing investor demand on prices. Nationally, 57 per cent say housing is unaffordable and 40 per cent say it’s affordable, making a net minus 17 result for unaffordable. In Sydney though, the net result is minus 62 per cent.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/abbott-hockey-and-dutton-kick-own-goals-20150614-ghnhyp.html

  15. Hold your horses. Bernard is tweeting that Ipsos is a dud poll, made worse because it’s not fortnightly. He’s determined that we should all be as endlessly miserable as he is, the bastard.

  16. Boerwar3

    Thought you would appreciate, yes going to be interesting next few weeks,I bought extra cash with me in case of default, paid here so all happy especially as was told family/friend rates 😀

  17. Latest Ispos is consistent with the underlying 52-48 which other polls have been showing. Even last month’s 50-50 would be on the bottom edge of the Margin of Error.

  18. Zoomster at 7

    I respect you & your position even though you don’t appear to be able to do the same. Pity.
    I will continue to put myself in the position of these people & suspect things will not change.

  19. “@sarahinthesen8: Nope, Mr Abbott, you don’t have a mandate to break the law or hand wads of cash to pay people smugglers in the middle of the ocean.”

  20. [Yeah, they win 53% of the 2PP.]

    Oh, but imagine how far ahead the could be if Shorten could ‘cut through’?

    or something…

  21. [21
    TPOF

    Quote from Jimmy Doyle at the end of the last thread:

    briefly – and just who the heck would replace Captain Chaos? Truffles? An overblown lightweight if there ever was one, and hated by his own party. Mesma/Asbestos Julie? A Thatcher wannabe dud. Devious Morriscum? A more thoroughly unlikable person I’ve not heard of, not to mention that he’s a happy clapper

    And there is the problem for the Clown Circus. The only thing keeping the pretenders in check and not slashing each other to death is the fact that the guy who won the last election is still ringmaster. If he goes it’s on for young and old, with backbiting, unrestrained ambition and dirty tricks aplenty.

    A whole world of pain awaits this Circus – whether he stays or goes or continues on as some sort of political zombie (of the horror movie kind]

    True…all very true. I guess this will be bad for the country, one way or another, at least until they can be replaced. There’s nothing worse for a people than a bad Government, and we sure have one.

  22. (from previous thread) “…When will they dump him?
    Tomorrow would be really spiffy.”

    It would be the last chance to make Abbott the shortest-serving non-caretaker PM since 1941 and the shortest serving Liberal PM.

  23. Blimey! This Poll might just be the first of a number, that see the LNP figures head south, leading to the Backbenchers that just signed that letter of support for Abbott getting the nervous twitches again and have thoughts of bringing on another spill! 😉

    Noticed that the blog has made a couple of improvements to the comments block. Good one.

  24. [32
    JimmyDoyle

    TPOF @ 21 – I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Potato Head Dutton has a shot at the leadership 😀 ]

    Yes, let’s hear it for Mr Eloquence, the Member for Few Words, an electorate somewhere in Queensland.

  25. Darn@27

    Looks like Abbott might finally have jumped the shark as I suggested. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. It’s only one poll.

    Indeed only one poll, but probably right in the sweet spot for the ALP.

    My read is that if Abbott could get the polling consistently in the 51/49 zone he’d calling a DD at the first Tampa, MH370, Putin, …. moment. If the polling consensus widens out past 54/46 then Abbott’s leadership comes under pressure from within the party.

    In between the entire Liberal brand is getting trashed. It’s not the best thing for the country but polling at these level suits the ALP very well.

  26. I just read the Guardian headline “Zoo animals on the loose and deaths feared”, and assumed it was about the LNP’s reaction to this poll.

    (It was actually about the Georgia floods.)

  27. Bernard keane goes on to say the last Ipsos was a rogue result at 50/50 because the NSW numbers were wrong. This result tonight corrects that error. He also says the whole Ipsos thing is a dud because Fairfax won’t spend the money to make it fortnightly.

    From his Twitter feed
    Ipsos is a dud, very prone to rogues, and the last one had a very bad flaw in the NSW sample.”

  28. [ TPOF @ 21 – I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Potato Head Dutton has a shot at the leadership ]

    He should be a “shoe in” I reckon! 😉

  29. [mari

    Posted Sunday, June 14, 2015 at 10:05 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar3

    Thought you would appreciate, yes going to be interesting next few weeks,I bought extra cash with me in case of default, paid here so all happy especially as was told family/friend rates :grin:]

    Ah yes. The bl**k oikos!

    I look forward to hearing your report from the epicentre!

  30. No, Charlie, I don’t have much respect for posters who can’t or won’t defend their position.

    I responded to your posts when you asked me to, and I did so respectfully.

    To me, it seems like you’re avoiding admitting that you’ve been wrong about some of your beliefs (for example, the comparative number of plane/boat arrivals) but prefer to pretend otherwise.

    I really can’t respect that as a position. If I’m wrong, show me I’m wrong; if you were wrong, have the balls to admit it.

  31. Personally I don’t see this Ipsos as a swing back to Labor but a swing back to reality. Perhaps 25% back to Labor and 75% back to reality. There has to be some Coalition loss given Hockey’s silly comment.

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