The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a good deal less encouraging for the government than last month’s tied result on two-party preferred, with Labor recording a 53-47 lead (or 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences). The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down three), 37% for Labor (up two) and 14% for the Greens (up one). It’s also the first poll in a while to show Bill Shorten in front on preferred prime minister, his 44-39 deficit of last month turning into a lead of 42-41. Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 40% and up four on disapproval to 54%, while Bill Shorten is respectively steady on 41% and up two to 47%. The poll also found 68% in support of same-sex marriage with only 25% opposed. It was conducted from Thursday to Saturday, from a sample of 1400.
UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan result is the weakest since February for the Coalition, who are down 3.5% on the primary vote to 37.5% – level with Labor, who are up half a point, with the Greens also up half a point to 13.5%. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is 54.5-45.5 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, respectively compared with 53-47 and 52-48 a fortnight ago.
[ as preferred PM or doing a better job. That might play into leadership on the Labor side of politics. ]
I heard that from Stutchbury on Insiders. My first thought was WTF, this guy is an editor and he comes out with Liberal Wishful thinking on national TV?? Labor haven’t got any leadership issues at the moment. The Libs have plenty though. 🙂
[TPOF @ 21 – I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Potato Head Dutton has a shot at the leadership]
That would be illegal.
davidwh@ 50 – to paraphrase Stephen Colbert, reality has a well-known left bias.
roger bottomley,
[ Scorpio, my guess is those hapless backbenchers a were bludgeoned into signing that letter. ]
Funnily enough, that was one of my first thoughts when I read that. It didn’t seem credible that things could change that quickly with the polls still looking pretty badly for them.
They get pretty nervous, these nellies, especially the first termers.
DavidWH
I agree, one thing about statistics is that it doesn’t take much to cause what appears to be a large movement.
…Where’s ESJ? Always quick to zip in and grab #1 post on a “bad” (read: only marginally ahead) poll for Labor….where are they?
Eddie? Eddie? COO-EE!
I understand Ipsos has only done federal polling since mid-2014, but could anyone tell me if it has shown a TPP of 53/47 to Labor during this time?
I seem to remember an Ipsos 52/48 in the same week in February that Newspoll and Essential showed 55/45 and Morgan had 56/44 based on the 2013 election and 57/43 for respondant allocated preferences.
Fairly sure this sight already bias weights Ipsos at around 1% to the coalition ,(dirty word) slightly higher based on first preference than it does Newspoll.
If so, a 54/46 or 55/45 doesn’t seem outside the realm of possibilities.
Plebiscite Now Please
mexicanbeemer@55
Yes, a mere 1% change causes a whole 1% movement. 😐
[News poll will be interesting]
Morgan will be off its chops!
[Plebiscite Now Please]
So your side of the argument can cop a three-to-one drubbing?
[43
scorpio
TPOF @ 21 – I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Potato Head Dutton has a shot at the leadership
He should be a “shoe in” I reckon!]
Well done! I laughed myself silly for quite a few minutes at that.
It also shows what happens when an opposition leader struggles to capitalise.
zoomster: Yeah, they win 53% of the 2PP.
.
And, having been turfed out of office in disarray in Sept 2013 the opposition are here at this remarkable stat just half-way into the new government’s first term, and have actually been ahead in the polls for almost all of the past 12 months! The old adage “oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them” really rings true here…
[ Plebiscite Now Please ]
Anything to “Stop the Polls” ! 🙂
imacca – Stutchbury carrying on a well established, albeit recent, Fairfax tradition of trying to create news as well as report it.
Ipsos was 54/46 to Labor in February.
William
Any chance we will see the Newspoll tonight?
It’s possible, but I’ve no better idea than anyone else.
Bemused please tell me that you know more about statistics then just how to read the raw result.
William,
I like the idea of a vote of the people.
I have no “side” other than Democracy. I’d accept whatever the outcome was but I expect the people to make that decision not a bunch of gay activists and politicians.
There are an infinite number of issues about which such things might be said. What’s special about this one?
Rabbithat @63:
[And, having been turfed out of office in disarray in Sept 2013 the opposition are here at this remarkable stat just half-way into the new government’s first term, and have actually been ahead in the polls for almost all of the past 12 months! The old adage “oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them” really rings true here…]
Oh, it’s basically always true.
Keating lost in 1996 because voters were tired of him.
Howard lost in 2007 because voters couldn’t trust him anymore (see: Workchoices).
Rudd lost in 2013 because voters were tired of leader$hit circuses from the ALP caucus.
And now, Abbott will lose, largely because he misinterpreted the 2013 result as an endorsement of his right-wing nuttery. It was a repudiation of constant leadership instability, not an endorsement of the IPA’s wish-list of “How to make Australia more like America, only worse”.
mexicanbeemer@69
I was illustrating just how ridiculous and meaningless your comment was.
I majored in Economic Statics in my BEc.
Also I have read people say “Why do we need a Plebiscite, the polls show it would pass”.
Using that logic we might as well scrap all state and federal elections and let Newspoll choose the Government for us.
True Blue
The Parliament is elected to govern, just do or don’t then we the voters get to pass judgement.
TBA
Tough Titties. Parliament will vote. Howard made sure of that.
People, including I think the Coalition brains (sic) trust, keep expecting the polls will turn towards the Government in the election period because that is typically what happens when people contemplate whether to dump the known (the government) for the unknown (the opposition).
I don’t think this will happen. First, what happens to polling before an election while typically tightening a bit follows different patterns from election to election. A glance at the right-hand column will show what I’m talking about.
More significantly, though, the past is increasingly a poor indicator of the future in Australian elections. One thing is clear – apart from stopping the boat arrivals (but not the boat departures) this government has signally failed every specific and general promise made prior to the last election and most of them since. The ability of Captain Chaos to express everything in simple and simplistic slogans means that it will be extraordinarily easy to run advertisements against him and his Clown Circus reminding people of how he and his mob have not only under-promised, but managed to under deliver every one of those heavily circumscribed promises that he did make.
I think that this time it will be different. The Coalition Government so far has the worst records of achievement of any first term government that I can recall. But what sets it apart from its predecessors is that its failures are almost entirely down to its own incompetence. Whereas others, notably the Whitlam Government faced an obstructionist Senate obsessed with blocking even those measures with the most specific mandate from the electorate, this government’s blunders have almost entirely been unforced. They simply expected that, having demonstrated the most extraordinary intransigence, belligerence and actual denial of legitimacy of the previous government, the Labor Opposition and, especially, the Senate would just roll over and die.
Labor will still have to make the case for government to ensure a powerful victory – and should do so anyway to maximise the opportunity for Senate agreement in the next Parliament, but even the most detached and apolitical voter will be thinking long and hard before casting a vote to retain this bunch of idiots. Even the most rusted on voters will be heading to the clothesline for pegs before heading off to the local polling station.
A plebiscite would be a thorough waste of money unless people really believe opinion polls have a 20% margin of error, but it might be worth a bit of indirect economic stimulus just to get the right wingers to shut up about it all being a gay conspiracy against the silent majority.
TBT @70:
Thanks for that laugh, troll. Plebiscites aren’t good enough for industrial relations, military operations, education or welfare – but for same-sex marriage, you’ll take it?
You hypocrite.
TBA, why are you homophobic?
Gay Marriage is a social issue, not a political issue.
That’s why there is a conscious vote, but seemingly the public don’t get a say.
bemused
Good so you would know that a slight change in the sample mean will change the data.
Goodnight all.
@SenatorLudlam: finally the truth may have caught up with this amoral regime http://t.co/uNIJbS8stj #OnWaterGate
“@ShaughanA: @SenatorLudlam @michaelhallida4 If the UN has the Proof, Abbott is a LIAR and must be sanctioned and face the ICC!”
mexicanbeemer@82
Another meaningless comment.
[seemingly the public don’t get a say.]
Seemingly LNP members don’t get a say more to the point
TrueBlueAussie – you still haven’t answered my question:
If the bribes for smugglers allegations were invented by the Indonesian Police and Government to discredit Abbott, what does that say about the damage Abbott has done to our relationship with Indonesia?
Or is that question too hard for you?
I don’t care either way on how same sex marriage is decided just know it will happen eventually.
But TPOF Abbott has achieved one thing that should have bipartisan support. He’s ended the ‘worst ever government – McMahon or Whitlam?’ debate for all time.
What a remarkably cavalier attitude you’ve suddenly developed towards pissing large sums of money away on utterly pointless exercises.
TBA, Most voters are conscious, except for you, you have an unconscious vote. Thought is beyond you.
JimmyDoyle @87:
Any questions that don’t make the Coalition look like saints is one that TrueBlueTroll has trouble answering.
ratsak – truly a defining moment for Australian politics.
Amoral Ludlum?
Don’t mince words mate, immoral is the correct term.
Bemused
Considering many of your comments over the years, I wouldn’t be calling anyone else’s comments meaningless.
Make sure you tuck yourself in and have your shoulders covered as it is cold.
[TrueBlueAussie
Posted Sunday, June 14, 2015 at 10:29 pm | PERMALINK
Plebiscite Now Please]
On revoking your citizenship?
I strongly doubt the populous of this nation wishes to waste $60 million deciding whether it is appropriate to send you back to the hell hole from whenst you came.
Begone, foul demon beast.
[ Any chance we will see the Newspoll tonight? ]
Well, we havent had “WoW” from PVO so maybe not??
[ I don’t care either way on how same sex marriage is decided just know it will happen eventually. ]
I just want it passed with maximum damage and bloodletting to the Libs. 🙂
Pay the boats!
[What a remarkably cavalier attitude you’ve suddenly developed towards pissing large sums of money away on utterly pointless exercises.]
Anything, anything at all to delay the inevitable by a year, a month, a day or even one hour.
The public don’t make the law. The parliament does. And why should the public decide who can legally marry.
So, why are you homophobic, TBA?
And why do you support payment of taxpayers’ money to support the people smugglers business model?