The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a good deal less encouraging for the government than last month’s tied result on two-party preferred, with Labor recording a 53-47 lead (or 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences). The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down three), 37% for Labor (up two) and 14% for the Greens (up one). It’s also the first poll in a while to show Bill Shorten in front on preferred prime minister, his 44-39 deficit of last month turning into a lead of 42-41. Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 40% and up four on disapproval to 54%, while Bill Shorten is respectively steady on 41% and up two to 47%. The poll also found 68% in support of same-sex marriage with only 25% opposed. It was conducted from Thursday to Saturday, from a sample of 1400.
UPDATE (Roy Morgan): The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan result is the weakest since February for the Coalition, who are down 3.5% on the primary vote to 37.5% – level with Labor, who are up half a point, with the Greens also up half a point to 13.5%. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is 54.5-45.5 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, respectively compared with 53-47 and 52-48 a fortnight ago.
Crap, we’ve fallen for TBA again. Suddenly we’re talking about whether or not there should be a gay marriage plebiscite and whether TBA has the faintest idea of the concept of representative democracy, rather than lolling at this poll and Abbott’s government.
Must do better.
It’s always amusing to find what issues erstwhile supporters of representative democracy decide are soooo important to require a direct plebiscite and which ones should be left to the winning side’s politicians.
[I have no “side” other than Democracy]
Stop it, my sides are hurting.
Not my backside tho’….
The Irish didn’t seem to mind.
Also Gay Marriage won’t get through the current parliament. The Guardian had a break down on those for and against and there are more against than for Gay Marriage.
So apparently I’m the homophobic one for wanting a vote which could break the impasse?
I don’t think I’ve see it mentioned, but Ipsos has Abbott’s approval at 40% (down two) and disapproval at 54% (up four). Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is 54-46.
[TPOF @ 21 – I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Potato Head Dutton has a shot at the leadership
]
MuttonDutonMentum
And here is the guy who threw the shoe
@justice4aflictd: Here is a similar shoe to the one a threw at Peter Dutton at a refugee welcome festival this morning http://t.co/t680FQRRsV
T.Abbott: by the year 2015, no people smuggler will live in poverty.
[Not my backside tho’….]
No, that’s Abbott, Hockey and Dutton due to Peta tearing them each a new one.
TrueBlueAussie@81
The only people who should get a say are the people who want to marry each other but currently can’t.
Theirs is the only conscience vote that matters. This should be painfully obvious, and to an increasing proportion of people, is.
BlurbUllage – may I just say, I’ve always enjoyed your comments, but you are very funny and on-point tonight!
There’s a weird disconnect in the way the Coalition approach issues.
On one level, they seem to understand what people want them to do. They make some pretense that that’s what they’re doing. But they can’t carry through, so there’s always a Get Out Of Jail free card in the mix somewhere.
So what happens is people initially breathe a sigh of relief, thinking the government’s got it, the penny’s dropped — and then along comes the sting in the tail and they realise that it’s same old, same old.
It’s weird. Surely if you want to hold on to power, and you understand what people want you to do, your best bet is to actually deliver what they want. After all, even if you have to compromise, your bottoms are on the drivers seats, and you’ll still be able to get more of your agenda up then you ever would from Opposition.
I’m happy with these numbers, but I think there’s a chance it might be an outlier.
Well said, KB.
[ Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is 54-46. ]
53/47 is on last election preferences??
Good enough for me. 🙂
So they would have been data gathering for this Ipsos after the first episode of “Killing Fields” ?? Libs would have been hoping for better out of that i think.
From the SMH editorial:
[It also shows what happens when an opposition leader struggles to capitalise.]
FFS, the only way that an Opposition leader can capitalise substantially is by doing what Captain Chaos did when he led the opposition – stand around and make one absurd hyperventilation followed by one outrageous lie and followed by another absurd hyperventilation. And even then he had to depend on a compliant media which gave those wind breaks prominence that could never be merited under any sane assessment of critical journalism.
The simple fact is that any Opposition leader, whether Shorten, Hayden, Beazley, Crean, Howard or Peacock or even Rudd, has no capacity to actually demonstrate the logic and consistency of its policies and neither journalists nor the general public have the capacity to absorb the complexity of most policy. If you are not in Government actually doing things, it’s an absolute bugger to cut through. Which is why Opposition leaders historically have rated poorly in the opinion polls. I still remember our second longest serving PM rating an approval of 18% in his first stint as an opposition leader.
The biggest challenge for an opposition leader is not to convince the public that they can be a good PM, but to avoid making some boner of an error that will guarantee their unelectability. But, of course, low key Opposition leaders who do not run around screaming that the sky is falling in do not make good news copy – so their lack of hysteria becomes a fault. Whereas if they were crazy hysterics like Abbott – that would be a fault instead. Other than for Captain Chaos himself. And now we have seen what happens when a crazy opposition leader is given a free pass by the media.
zoomster @111:
The Coalition is hoping that the ever-friendly mainstream media will help them to get re-elected.
After all, it worked once…electing a party of numpties, led by a malevolent empty suit, to the Government benches.
“I’m the homophobic one”
Your words.
[Bernard is tweeting that Ipsos is a dud poll, made worse because it’s not fortnightly.]
Is that what he said last time when it was even more of an outlier?
TPOF @115
If a BludgerTrack of 52.X-47.X (the likely result after the BT takes this Ipsos into account) is “failing to cut through”, well….I’d love to see what happened if Shorten did cut through!
Personally, on TBT I’ll say this much: At least he’s here, not playing least-in-sight as ESJ is.
[92
Matt
Any questions that don’t make the Coalition look like saints is one that TrueBlueTroll has trouble answering.]
Evidently. TrueBlue is too busy trolling LGBT rights.
That’s the tragedy of it TPOF. We will probably be rid of this malignant government soon enough. We’ll still be stuck with the same malignant media that allowed them to grow in the first place though.
Davidwh
[Ipsos was 54/46 to Labor in February]
I really don’t think this is true.
If the boss has a minute could he give some sort of confirmation one way or the other please?
JD at 32
That’s a hell of a weak limb. However, there is a kind of logic that he could be a place holder so that the real competitors can fight it out behind the scenes without having to worry about tearing down the PM as well. Potato Head will go when the time comes with a little poke from the left pinky.
109
The general point about conscience votes being votes of parliamentarians not along the lines they were elected actually has some point. Voters got a clear choice in every seat as to which party or independent represented them but many did not get a clear choice as to whether or not they were getting an MP who would vote for or against marriage equality.
Having said that it, the Parliament still has every right to change the marriage laws to end the discrimination and should use it.
[Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is 54-46]
Morgan will be a bunch of warm fluffy ducks.
You could toast a marshmallow over the next cabinet meeting.
@MarkTregonning: I hold my Old Dunlop Volley aloft in solidarity with the guy who threw his shoes at #PeterDutton #Ithrowashoe #Dutton http://t.co/fuoLxAPvmt
Blurb – February Ipsos:
http://insidepublishers.com.au/politics-and-government-policy/article/fairfax-ipsos-poll-february-2015
This is a good poll result – it’ll be interesting to see newspoll and how the media report this. Stutchberry on the insiders today seemed to be gearing up for further poll tightening and labor leaderhip speculation. I’m guessing the speculation might run the other way if other poll reflect the same trend. will abbott ditch hockey in an attempt to save himself? who else would he get rid of. dutton could be a sitting duck by the end of the week if the payment of people smugglers in confirmed. the cynic in me thinks the government paid the smugglers to try to encourage more boats so they can be seen stopping them. abbott has nothing else but xenophobia at present.
Rabbithat @ 63
[And, having been turfed out of office in disarray in Sept 2013 the opposition are here at this remarkable stat just half-way into the new government’s first term]
In fact, an extraordinary number of the best and the brightest of Labor managed to save their seats, especially in Sydney. Apart from those who retired. And Labor has not tried to put as much distance as possible between it and the Gillard government. There probably has not been an opposition in my lifetime as well placed technically to return to government as this current one.
[ You could toast a marshmallow over the next cabinet meeting. ]
doG can we please please please have another set of detailed leaks from the next cabinet meeting?? Betcha its all about:
“Payments!!” “WTF is this payment thing and why didn’t i know…!!!” “Scrote was it you??? “
Dweena oh Dweena, where are you baby cakes?
TPOF @ 123 – A Pete-tato for PM campaign would take the country by storm, after all dark horse campaigns by Queenslanders ALWAYS work out great. Just ask Joh.
(Yes, I’m being flippant.)
Tom
[ many did not get a clear choice as to whether or not they were getting an MP who would vote for or against marriage equality.]
Why didn’t they? Surely they could just ask their MP what their stance was and then vote accordingly.
I think that ‘conscience votes’ (maybe also ‘conscious votes’) should be far more common, as was the case in the USA before the Republicans went feral. Party members agree on core principles but are otherwise not bound.
So Marriage equality, like most social issues, is not cor for the two main groupings. Parliamentarians should be alloewd to vote according to their conscience and/or their best assessment of their constituents’ views. In most cases, the latter would indicate a ‘yes’ vote.
.
.
Agreed. The voters did get sick of Keating, Howard & Rudd (MkII), but even RGR made it into a second term before pissing enough people off to be booted. Abbott & co’s litany of mostly unforced errors have got them to this point barely half-way through their first term!
.
.
Yep, and at the risk of infaming the Rudd-Gillard partisans, their undignified and pointless squabbling at the top of the ALP helped create the circumstances that allowed someone as unelectable as Abbott should have been into power
ratsak @ 89
[But TPOF Abbott has achieved one thing that should have bipartisan support. He’s ended the ‘worst ever government – McMahon or Whitlam?’ debate for all time.]
More true than you realise. My moderately conservative brother who has voted Liberal all his life except when Hawke was in power said that Abbott was the worse PM he had ever seen. He noted that Whitlam was just as bad a manager of his government but at least had a vision. He also said that Abbott was much worse than I had painted him when he won the election (and I was vituperative about him). It just makes me think how many other solid Liberals are thinking the same way.
The only reason the Irish had a referendum was because the definition of marriage was defined in their constitution.
Every other Westminster system just had a parliamentary vote on it without needing a plebiscite.
@shanebazzi: Tomorrow @sarahinthesen8 will table an order to produce documents in Senate to force govt to clarify what happened http://t.co/kHtU9DQ8WV
TrueBlueAussie @ 81
[Gay Marriage is a social issue, not a political issue.]
Well no, it is both those thing at once but mostly it is a legal issue.
And if you weren’t a a closet homophobic wanker you would he honest enough to call the legislated and constitutionally acceptable union of two people, regardless of sex, equality.
133
The Liberals ran with a policy of opposition but not ruling out a conscience vote. The ALP ran supporting it but promising a conscience vote. Yes the Greens an and assortment of micro parties ran for it with the Nationals (although one of their MPs is now in favour) and assorted micro parties against, it was all a bit fussy. There is a greater argument in cases such as euthanasia where there is less of a campaign at election time.
Changed my mind, perhaps not an outlier at all seeing that the last one at 50:50 was most likely one.
[But TPOF Abbott has achieved one thing that should have bipartisan support. He’s ended the ‘worst ever government – McMahon or Whitlam?’ debate for all time.
More true than you realise. My moderately conservative brother who has voted Liberal all his life except when Hawke was in power said that Abbott was the worse PM he had ever seen. He noted that Whitlam was just as bad a manager of his government but at least had a vision. He also said that Abbott was much worse than I had painted him when he won the election (and I was vituperative about him). It just makes me think how many other solid Liberals are thinking the same way.]
same here – all my lib-voting relatives HATE abbott with a passion. more than they did keating even – who they now generally credit with lasting reforms. Even the over 80 year olds say this is the lowest point in australian politics in their memories. problem is – Shorten is seen as ‘the same’ as abbott and doesn’t inspire confidence.
boerwar48
Of course re bl*ck hole 50 % less
Is going to be interesting hope they do come through Buttt my heart is stronger than my head sometimes 🙂
TTFB
Its 3 Nats voting yes on SSM
SF
Nah. The govt did not pay the smugglers to encourage more boats. This is being exposed now cos Indonesia decided to expose it to the world. You have to ask why? Me thinks they have had a gutful of turn the boats back sheninigans.
Teh Drewski
Thanks.
[129
TPOF
In fact, an extraordinary number of the best and the brightest of Labor managed to save their seats, especially in Sydney. Apart from those who retired. And Labor has not tried to put as much distance as possible between it and the Gillard government. There probably has not been an opposition in my lifetime as well placed technically to return to government as this current one.]
Yes. Furthermore, even if NSW doesn’t swing hugely to Labor there are eight seats on margins under 3% (five under 1%) such as Barton (0.3%), Eden-Monaro (0.6%) Dobell (0.7%), Reid (0.9%), Banks (1.8%), Page (2.5%), Robertson (3%) and Lindsay(3%). These seats will fall to Labor in a heartbeat if Labor is winning on the night. In many of these seats there is still a lot of goodwill towards Labor. Labor is extraordinarily well positioned to win the next election through a mix of good luck and good political choices.
For me personally, my red line was the carbon price. If Labor had abandoned it’s commitment to a carbon price I probably would’ve left the party. The decisions made by Shorten and the ALP in the immediate aftermath of the 2013 election were good choices, and restored the faith of a lot of disillusioned and disappointed party members and campaigners, including myself.
GhostWhoVotes
GhostWhoVotes – @GhostWhoVotes
#Ipsos Poll Same-sex marriage: Support 68 Oppose 25 #auspol
If Abbott gets dumped as leader soon marriage equality may arrive that much sooner.
The new leader will be more precarious and have to keep colleagues happy and a free vote would do that.
Davidwh,
Apologies,