Two new polls this week from ReachTEL and Essential Research cause the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to tick 0.3% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred, which yields only one gain on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. The leadership ratings have been updated with the results from Morgan’s phone poll, a strikingly good (relatively speaking) result for Tony Abbott that causes the already sharp momentum in his favour to carry him to parity with Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister. Full results as always on the sidebar.
For those wishing to discuss next week’s British election, note that the dedicated post has been bumped up the order and appears below this one (with a new Seat of the Week below that). Home news:
• Cameron Atfield of Fairfax reports the Queensland Senate vacancy created by the resignation of Brett Mason, who has taken up the position of ambassador to the Netherlands, has attracted nine Liberal National Party candidates. They include Nicholas Monsour, managing director of a consultancy firm and brother-in-law of Campbell Newman; Bill Glasson, an ophthalmologist, former Australian Medical Association president and twice candidate for Griffith, firstly against Kevin Rudd at the 2013 election and then at the by-election held the following February after his resignation; Theresa Craig, president of the Agribusiness Association of Australia; Kerri-Anne Dooley, unsuccessful state election candidate for Redcliffe; along with “company director Teresa Harding, project officer Joanna Lindgren, company director Chris Mangan and lawyers Philip Roberts and Andrew Wallace”. The matter will be determined at a meeting of the party’s state council on May 16.
• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports that Queensland Labor’s preselection nominations process is approaching its conclusion with no candidates emerging in opposition to Wayne Swan in Lilley, despite earlier talk he might face a challenge, or Milton Dick in Oxley. Dick stands to succeed sitting member Bernie Ripoll, who will retire at the next election after appearing to be headed for defeat at the hands of Dick in any case.
• The Australian Electoral Commission is inviting submissions for the federal redistribution of New South Wales until May 22, and for the Australian Capital Territory redistribution until May 29.
(and yes, I am assuming he means empty rhetoric)
imacca
I missed the speech. But saw the qanda session. There were some good questions asked and answered. But a couple of not so happy campers. Couldnt hear questions, but one was about asylum seeker policy. Obviously not happy with the current offshore policy. Shorten whilst acknowledging that there were issues on Nauru and Manus Island, also said wtte that having people die at sea is not something he wants to see, and he made reference to the latest disaster near Italy
[ Shorten whilst acknowledging that there were issues on Nauru and Manus Island, also said wtte that having people die at sea is not something he wants to see, and he made reference to the latest disaster near Italy ]
Which is probably a good position to take on that at the moment. Not dismissing but not engaging on it. BOATS are the Govts preferred zone of engagement and they will do anything they can to get people talking about that and stop people talking economics. Which is pretty bizarre considering budget is coming up??
imacca
Labor reintroduced off shore processing just prior to the 2013 election. Whilst they probably dont like all the secrecy by Abbott and Co re sovereign borders. They would probably be happy for the boats to stay away for good.
[However, if the government found its feet and started being popular, he’d be unable to cut through.]
Maybe. Remains to be tested.
[…he isn’t that politically adept.]
He quickly pulled his side together after a period of brutal internal party chaos and idiocy, and is doing well against a particularly ruthless and unprincipled first term government. I doubt that is all down to blind luck for Bill. If nothing else Shorten has well understood how to stand back and let the man-child in Abbott box himself very unclever and bloody indeed.
Shorten also previously managed what no Oz pollie has done before, and got a serious national disability scheme on the political table.
I do agree that the time has arrived for Shorten Labor to start turning up the heat and putting meat on the bones. I also think that the evidence says they fully grasp that, are well prepared, and are starting to get on with it.
The next 3 months is going to be interesting.
Just me
Labor have been working on setting the ground for this budget. I am very interested in Shorten’s budget in reply.
[That’s an unforgivable slur. Crocodiles are highly respected creatures, who don’t deserve to be maligned by comparisons with S. Mirabella.]
I withdraw.
Ms Mirabella does not have the moral character of a crocodile -boom tish-
LU@1707
You forgot to apologise to the crocodiles.
victoria
[All you do is moan and groan about how bad Shorten and Labor are. You never come up with any suggestions as to what would be good policy]
Agreed. Piss or get off the pot, Rex.
[You forgot to apologise to the crocodiles.]
Oh dear. My unreserved apologies to all members of the order Crocodilia, whether they be true crocodiles or not.
[ I am very interested in Shorten’s budget in reply. ]
That is going to be a very critical moment in the politics of the next two years. For which, i think, the ALP is pretty well prepared.
They seem to be being reasonably adept at avoiding being realistically branded as “small target”, and have certainly (regardless of the Lib/media spin) been doing opposition very differently from the fanatical NO,NO,NO oogga booga fear of everything that characterised the Libs in opposition.
As far as the fear component of the ALP campaign that is based on the quite legitimate fear of what another term under the Libs would mean for the country.
On the AS policy. As you know I oppose offshore.
However it still seems to me that Labor plans put in place by Rudd were very different to what the LNP has done.
They have to be as it is crystal clear Labor would not have the secrecy or a military commander in charge of our refugee processing.
I was willing to wait to see if the Rudd plan would would. I now thing it would not work because you need good relations with your neighbours working in real cooperation.
Bill Shorten can talk about deaths at sea all he likes but the reality is the people fleeing to Italy are fleeing ISIS and other cruel despotic regimes and will continue to do so in massive numbers and the choice becomes do you let them drown or do you rescue them?
Eventually we will have onshore processing again as soon as this reality becomes clear. All that can be done is to use the Fraser tactic to have as much of the processing happen offshore without detention so less get on the boats in the first place.
Indonesia and Malaysia are vital in this regard which is why the Malaysia solution made sense even though I disagreed with how it was set up.
Having just read Shorten’s speech I can understand Rex’s confusion.
It was a very unusual one. We rarely hear its like nowadays.
It was mainly positive in its outlook. It set out the challenges and opportunities for the future.
Most importantly it continued to touch on areas, I imagine Labor has developed policies on, so that the public and media are thinking of the related issues, setting an appropriate platform for future policy release.
As I said, an unusual speech.
May there be many more.
Shorten has shown his mettle in budget replies. He was at his most engaging authoritative and convincing that I have seen him in his last budget reply.
victoria
Shorten Labor are traveling as well as one could reasonably hope for in the circumstances.
Which is no reason to get complacent, a Murdoch-backed Abbott in a corner is an extremely dangerous and fickle beast.
But I am not displeased. Was expecting far worse at this stage of the political cycle.
🙂
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/denying-problem-of-boat-people-deaths-intellectually-dishonest/story-fn59niix-1227334424484
So, Shorten gives a significant speech (in context of it being just before the budget ) on economics, and the Govt Gazette reports on heckling (which if you read the quotes from Shorten in the article he seemed to handle pretty well) to do with BOATS and IR. Fwarking Tory press. 🙁
[ Assistant Treasurer Josh Frydenberg concedes that 75 per cent of the budget problem has been on the revenue side but says the government won’t be extending a two per cent levy on those earning above $180,000 annually, beyond its planned three years. ]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/economic-data-to-help-hockey-with-budget/story-fn3dxiwe-1227333712374
Well that’s good isn’t it? They know where the problem is but are wilfully going to do sod all about it. 🙁
Also given where Labor finds itself on boats I think Shorten handled it well
imacca@1716
Do mean Labor forgot to hirer ‘rent a crowd’?
Abbott wouldn’t have got out his car if he knew this was the case.
How can a leader perform unless everyone in the audience pretends to love them. 😛
imaca@1717
So they’re already ruling out building on the year’s budget success.
Breaking News.. Big Clive has had a Big Win against those lying ‘chows’
The Supreme Court has ruled in Clives favour against the Chinese who claimed he broke the trust agreement.
Only got the sketchy details off the 24hr news.
1720
Sorry, me bad
‘the year’s’ should be ‘the last year’s’
[ So they’re already ruling out building on the year’s budget success. ]
BiS, i really dont think they have any idea what they are doing.
I reckon that you had better check out popcorn availability wherever you are at the moment so your well stocked for the post budget Liberal #leadersh$t.
BIS and imacca
Karen Middleton on Insiders pointed to scheduling of cabinet with the ERC to make the point they are still working on the budget.
Her question was why a week out are they still working on the budget?
A very good question showing how much they are on the run reacting to polls instead of doing policy at the moment.
guytaur
I seem to remember the 2014 budget was a bit of a last moment panic, too.
[Mr Myers pointed to two letters sent by the AFP to Indonesian authorities days before the smugglers departed Australia, which contained the passport details of eight drug mules and details of how they planned to transport heroin.
“They will be carrying body packs (with white powder) back to Australia with packs on both legs and also with back supports. They have already been given the back supports. The packs will be strapped to their bodies. They will be given money to exchange for local currency to purchase oversized loose shirts and sandals,” one of the letters said.
Mr Myers said the letters proved the AFP could have arrested Scott Rush and others and charged them with conspiracy.]
http://www.theage.com.au/world/bali-nine-afp-know-they-did-wrong-lawyer-20150504-1na6yl.html
lizzie
A bit less so last year because they had the commission of audit for cover
guytaur@1724
Just goes to show how good the Parliament printers are.
It would be hilarious if they implemented industrial action over the lack of a new wage agreement early next week.
:devil:
[ Her question was why a week out are they still working on the budget? ]
Because they have no fwarking idea. I think this harks back to Laura Tingles thesis that after the 2014 budget the Libs are well into panic mode. They did REALLY believe that just having them in the big chair would make it all so much better.
And its not.
And they dont know what to do to make people think it is.
And they fluffed dumping the most obvious impediments to re-election.
I think that Shorten hit it on the head today when he said that:
[ All this shows is the Liberals have learned the wrong lessons from last year’s debacle. ]
Its not the sizzle. The sausage is well and truly off.
And after a year out of the fridge the sausage is actually a noxious and decomposing lump that you really will NOT be able to sell to the Australian public like one of CMOT Dibblers special real meat pies no matter how much sauce you cover it with.
imacca
[BiS, i really dont think they have any idea what they are doing.]
It may be a symptom of the clash between what their ideology really wants to do to us and the reality of electoral doom if they do.
[ It would be hilarious if they implemented industrial action over the lack of a new wage agreement early next week. ]
Sorry BiS. That would just be to hilarious. The doGs are not that good to us. 🙂
Besides, the Libs have probably outsourced the job already. 🙁
Tony and David’s loathsome mate at it again.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/17yearold-ed-miliband-fan-abby-in-stoush-with-rupert-murdoch-20150504-1mz5zm.html
Why is everyone over of a few words that has not seen any action regarding Shorten’s pre-budget lame speech?
Action means alot more than words.
And so far we seen nothing from either leader.
zoidlord
No matter what you think of Shorten and Labor they have done some action. They have released policy with a promise you can believe of more to come before the election.
That is as much action as you can expect from an opposition so I think you are wrong with the no action claim
imacca
[won’t be extending a two per cent levy on those earning above $180,000 annually]
Yep. Thanks for the fish.
[ Yep. Thanks for the fish. ]
Liberal fish smell bad too. c/o Caught In My Own Net of Bullsh$t Hockey.
You can do more in Opposition guytuar, it’s just they are lazy to do so or don’t want to risk it.
zoidlord
They are risking more of any opposition since Keating. They are putting policies out way ahead of the election.
No small target
poroti@1730
An apt musical interlude.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mD9Ma3KnOYg
Keating era sorry
Chatting with a friend last night – she’s currently working as a casual at the ATO, usually six days a week.
Although lots of permanent staff have been, er, ‘let go’, and there’s more planned (apparently a whole department was dismissed a couple of days ago, with their workload to be ‘outsourced’) there is (surprise, surprise) exactly the same amount of work to do, so casuals are in hot demand.
[sohar
Posted Monday, May 4, 2015 at 2:01 pm | PERMALINK
Kevin@1683,
Will it still be known as Newspoll (owned by News, I think) or become Galaxy in the Australian?]
They have decided to call it RupertRooterPoll.
guytaur, more action less talk.
Every day their policies from last goverment are being overwritten (i.e. NBN).
NBN Co is spending big dollars for example to rid facelift from website to brand naming, while playing favorites with Telstra.
RD @ 1666
Your criticism of Bill Shorten predictably negative. I expect your criticism of his budget reply to be the same.
NZ’s largest energy distributor has formed a partnership with Tesla to bring Tesla’s home battery storage system to their customers. Are there any local firms with similar intentions ?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11443059
May the fourth be with you all today.
Zoidlord
Labor are in opposition they are not the government. So I disagree with you.
Given all the issues that are happening shouting about the NBN at the moment won’t achieve much. Better to leave it for closer to the campaign.
[You can do more in Opposition guytuar, it’s just they are lazy to do so or don’t want to risk it.]
Don’t think that is a wise reading of the political landscape in Oz right now.
[Every day their policies from last goverment are being overwritten (i.e. NBN).]
That is what happens when you lose government.
Especially to a reckless vindictive wrecker like Abbott.
Fun, huh?
[more action less talk]
In opposition, the only action you can take is talk (shout) louder and more hysterically hyperbolically.
Which is what Abbott did in Opposition. And middle Australia (whose votes will decide the next and every future Australian government) has learnt from the experience that when you elect an Opposition that behaves like Abbott’s did you get a Government that performs like Abbott’s does.
The one thing that Bill Shorten is doing is trying to show the Australian electorate that he is not an Opposition leader in the Abbott mould and therefore he will not be a Prime Minister in the Abbott mould.
[zoidlord
Posted Monday, May 4, 2015 at 3:45 pm | Permalink
guytaur, more action less talk.
Every day their policies from last goverment are being overwritten (i.e. NBN).
NBN Co is spending big dollars for example to rid facelift from website to brand naming, while playing favorites with Telstra.]
Exactly what sort of action are you looking for?
Call me naïve but I’m under the impression that oppositions can do little more than complain, talk, put forward alternate policies and hope to convince the electorate to move back to them at the next election. Traditionally the only way back into government was to wait for the other side to stuff up, make sure it was widely seen as stuffing up and hope it was ‘time’. Very little oppositions do or say changes anything in my opinion, except when they are seen as laughing stocks, which is why they are trying to be careful now.