Two new polls this week from ReachTEL and Essential Research cause the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to tick 0.3% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred, which yields only one gain on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. The leadership ratings have been updated with the results from Morgan’s phone poll, a strikingly good (relatively speaking) result for Tony Abbott that causes the already sharp momentum in his favour to carry him to parity with Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister. Full results as always on the sidebar.
For those wishing to discuss next week’s British election, note that the dedicated post has been bumped up the order and appears below this one (with a new Seat of the Week below that). Home news:
• Cameron Atfield of Fairfax reports the Queensland Senate vacancy created by the resignation of Brett Mason, who has taken up the position of ambassador to the Netherlands, has attracted nine Liberal National Party candidates. They include Nicholas Monsour, managing director of a consultancy firm and brother-in-law of Campbell Newman; Bill Glasson, an ophthalmologist, former Australian Medical Association president and twice candidate for Griffith, firstly against Kevin Rudd at the 2013 election and then at the by-election held the following February after his resignation; Theresa Craig, president of the Agribusiness Association of Australia; Kerri-Anne Dooley, unsuccessful state election candidate for Redcliffe; along with “company director Teresa Harding, project officer Joanna Lindgren, company director Chris Mangan and lawyers Philip Roberts and Andrew Wallace”. The matter will be determined at a meeting of the party’s state council on May 16.
• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports that Queensland Labor’s preselection nominations process is approaching its conclusion with no candidates emerging in opposition to Wayne Swan in Lilley, despite earlier talk he might face a challenge, or Milton Dick in Oxley. Dick stands to succeed sitting member Bernie Ripoll, who will retire at the next election after appearing to be headed for defeat at the hands of Dick in any case.
• The Australian Electoral Commission is inviting submissions for the federal redistribution of New South Wales until May 22, and for the Australian Capital Territory redistribution until May 29.
Sprocket@1742,
“They have decided to call it RupertRooterPoll.” To save costs and simplify the results they will only survey Rupert. No point engaging the masses in something like politics.
There are sections of the PB community that won’t be happy unless the Labor leader is essentially the leftist Andrew Bolt.
Fortunately for Labor’s chances of winning the next election, there’s nobody in the Labor party operating under the illusion that anyone in the country wants to hear that kind of gibberish. One Andrew Bolt, left or right, is one Andrew Bolt too many.
Oh, and John Oliver’s been to Australia before. I’d criticise Fairfax’s lazy “journalism” but, well, there’s not really many journalists there any more, is there?
@kevjohnno/1750
Completely rubbish, when Coalition Party’s call on to support its own policies, Labor jumps at the chance to support them, just like the National Security laws.
Instead they put in weak supplementary additions to the existing legislation, so the legislation can be passed, the second thing is that labor hasn’t called upon for more inquiries into Coalition Party’s own policies, especially in terms of NBN and Asylum Seekers.
In my view, Labor has played the sit and wait approach too long, while their own policies from previous goverment get overwritten, that is why Jason Clare the other week declared he may not be able to get the original NBN back on track.
It’s because Labor are weak in Opposition.
Less words – more action.
For another example, when the AFP press release was on, Rural Regional users are going to hit with more expensive taxes for broadband:
http://www.zdnet.com/article/nbn-considers-connection-charges-for-satellite-users/
[ NZ’s largest energy distributor has formed a partnership with Tesla to bring Tesla’s home battery storage system to their customers. Are there any local firms with similar intentions ? ]
I’d be surprised. These batteries don’t stack up very well against traditional lead acid batteries. They are undersized for most non-suburban applications (so you would need at least two) and the additional electronics (inverters etc) promise to be MUCH more expensive, since they operate at 350-450 volts, not the “traditional” 24 or 48. I haven’t heard anyone put a price on this aspect of them yet – which makes me think it is quite large.
Of course, there’s a long way to go on this one, but so far the Tesla announcement seems to have been a bit underwhelming. I can’t really figure out exactly where they intend using these batteries (other than to recharge their own cars, of course) – perhaps just as big “uninterruptible power supplies” for suburban applications. But I guess that market in the US would be quite large.
Newspoll has been sold to Galaxy according to Twitter.
[ Less words – more action. ]
How about you follow your own advice?
[
zoidlord
Posted Monday, May 4, 2015 at 3:31 pm | Permalink
Why is everyone over of a few words that has not seen any action regarding Shorten’s pre-budget lame speech?
Action means alot more than words.
And so far we seen nothing from either leader.
]
You may be surpried to learn this; butSh
[
zoidlord
Posted Monday, May 4, 2015 at 3:31 pm | Permalink
Why is everyone over of a few words that has not seen any action regarding Shorten’s pre-budget lame speech?
Action means alot more than words.
And so far we seen nothing from either leader.
]
You may be surprised to learn this but Shorten in the leader of the opposition; Labor lost government.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/galaxy-research-to-conduct-polling-for-newspoll/story-e6frg996-1227334039755
[Galaxy Research to conduct polling for Newspoll
THE AUSTRALIAN MAY 04, 2015 11:35AM
The polling behind the authoritative Newspoll will move to Galaxy Research after the wind-up of the joint venture that currently undertakes the work.
Staff at Cudex, the equal joint venture between News Corp Australia and international advertising and public relations firm WPP, were told this morning the company would be shut down at the end of next month.
Galaxy Research, which provides polling for News Corp Australia’s metropolitan newspapers, will now also conduct polling for Newspoll, which will continue to run exclusively in The Australian every fortnight.
Galaxy Research founder and chief executive David Briggs previously spent 18 years as general manager of Newspoll.
In a joint statement sent to staff this morning, The Australian’s chief executive Nicholas Gray and editor in chief Chris Mitchell said Galaxy Research had “proven its credentials as a highly accurate polling company in both federal and state elections”.
“Recently, it called a Labor win in the recent Queensland election and was again proven reliable in the NSW election,” they said. “Newspoll’s rigour, integrity and frequency will not be affected, and Newspoll will retain its position as Australia’s most authoritative and eagerly awaited political poll.”
News Corp Australia, The Australian and WPP thanked Newspoll chief executive Martin O’Shannessy and his team for their “outstanding work over the years”. There will be some redundancies among the 26 staff at Cudex.
The change in polling partners is the second major shift in the polling space in the past year. In October, Fairfax Media announced Ipsos as its new polling partner, ending a 40-year relationship with Nielsen.]
That’s the whole article. No indication if polling methodology will change, rather than just who make the calls or whatever. Galaxy’s current national polls are done differently to Newspoll.
@Player One/1758
Playing that kind of card won’t work, I’ve spread my fair share of what needs to be done, I’ve also submitted to fair abit of Inquiries, I also comment regularly on quiet a few websites and regular discuss politics in real world, I’ve also had to regular complain to various departments in the past few years.
So Player One, rather than demanding someone “follow your own advice” when you should do your own first, only those who follow party lines would tell other people this when they can’t attack on public websites.
It seems people like yourself think that people just complain and do nothing.
Leroy
And no mention of how many people lose their jobs at the polling company which is being shut down
This is obviously a savings measure.
@fred/1760
And your point? Coalition Party isn’t going to loose an election (unlike some state governments).
If polling methodology between old Newspoll and the Galaxy version are different they couldn’t possibly make comparisons with previous polls.
Sorry, didn’t read to the end, bad me
Player One
One thing they could be used for is to cover a home’s power needs during peak power periods. Whatever the hype we’ll find out if it is a hit or a miss when it meets the real world.
Whatever happened to this Ipsos poll? Died of embarrassment?
As much as Tesla’s home battery concept is a good start, I think it’s a way off being a feasible install in Australian conditions.
Once they get their big new factory up and running and knock another 30% off the price, and installers get their heads around how to make it part of a home solar package, I’d suspect that they’re inevitable, or at least something similar is. The grid is doomed…
Not passing legislation, setting up endless senate enquiries just gets sold as obstruction and being unable to accept the result of the last election. This give the government a big out for their failures. Sure fire way for us to lose the next election in both houses. Politics is not easy. You have to be able to be seen as willing to follow while trying to lead. You can’t just suck up to the faithful, you need to woo the feckless.
When you go to Fairfax, you hear the Liberals tell us all that Labor will never win government unless it adopts all of the Liberal Party policies. Here, we are told that Labor will not win government unless it adopts all of the Green policies.
Call me illogical and irrational, but I thought that the only party that will attract votes by adopting Liberal policies is the Liberal Party. Ditto for the Greens. I’m happy for Labor to be Labor.
Morgan: Coalition 40 (+1.5), Labor 37.5 (-0.5), Greens 11.5 (-0.5), Palmer United 1.5 (+0.5). Respondent-allocated 2PP: Labor 53.5 (+0.5), Coalition 46.5 (-0.5). Previous election: Labor 53 (-1), Coalition 47 (+1).
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6222-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-may-4-2015-201505040600
When you go to Fairfax, you hear the Liberals tell us all that Labor will never win government unless it adopts all of the Liberal Party policies. Here, we are told that Labor will not win government unless it adopts all of the Green policies.
Call me illogical and irrational, but I thought that the only party that will attract votes by adopting Liberal policies is the Liberal Party. Ditto for the Greens. I’m happy for Labor to be Labor.
No disrespect to Greens and Liberals, but the voters who like those policies already have someone to give their one vote to and they are not likely to change to a party that says me too.
If Labor has chosen not to support the metadata laws (subject to amendments proposed by Labor), those who think it important enough can vote for the Greens next time.
[Are there any local firms with similar intentions ?]
Reposit – http://www.repositpower.com/
[I’d be surprised. These batteries don’t stack up very well against traditional lead acid batteries.]
Well that depends…
[They are undersized for most non-suburban applications (so you would need at least two)]
Only if you want to go completely off-grid, not just do wome peak shaving.
[and the additional electronics (inverters etc) promise to be MUCH more expensive, since they operate at 350-450 volts, not the “traditional” 24 or 48.]
More volts, same power = less current. Current does the damage: the inverters will be cheaper per unit of power.
[I haven’t heard anyone put a price on this aspect of them yet – which makes me think it is quite large.]
$2-3,000.
[ I can’t really figure out exactly where they intend using these batteries ]
Li-ion batteries are high power:
– What’s the draw of a kettle, oven, cooktop or airconditioner, possibly at the same time?
– How many lead acids do you need in parallel draw 3kW at 240V?
wome = some
teh_drewski
Billions have been spent to provide the infrastructure to cope with peak power periods. Assets only utilized for short periods.The home batteries could be a way to cover the short periods of peak power periods. Both the resident and power company could benefit in some sort of joint arrangement.
[ It seems people like yourself think that people just complain and do nothing. ]
Yes. And those people seem mostly to be Greens.
kevjohnno@1770
As opposed to saying one thing before the election and doing the opposite after.
In general Labor’s obstruction in the Senate, (with Greens and independents support,) has been to those things the Lib’s said they would not do before the election.
I see much of this opposition as keeping the Lib’s to their word, stopping them from breaking even more election promises.
Call me cynical, but… If only the govt were genuinely interested in conservation.
[The new royal princess will receive a cot blanket and a donation to a possum sanctuary as her official gifts from the Australian people.
Prime Minister Tony Abbott announced on Monday the baby would receive a blanket made from Tasmanian merino wool which would be embroidered with wattle by Canberra-based embroiderers.
A $10,000 donation will also be made to honour the birth to the Healesville Sanctuary in Victoria to support its work conserving the Australian Mountain Pygmy-possum.]
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/royal-baby-abbott-government-donates-10000-to-possums-for-princess-20150504-ggtpa9.html
poroti
[ One thing they could be used for is to cover a home’s power needs during peak power periods. Whatever the hype we’ll find out if it is a hit or a miss when it meets the real world. ]
Yes, that’s my thinking. Useful mainly for “on grid” applications. And that market is pretty much dead here in Australia because of the lousy feed-in tariff.
poroti – oh, I agree. But that would require the power companies to pull their heads out of their posteriors and actually start working with consumers to build a sustainable energy distribution future, instead of just shrugging and pleading to be allowed to hike prices again.
It’s not that grid *has* to be dead – it’s just that the easier and cheaper it becomes to go off-grid, and the less power companies try to modernise their infrastructure to encourage consumer/generators to stay on-grid, the less people will stick around paying ever higher tariffs.
WB @ 1772
So in the period before the Federal budget, which has the potential to be a game changer, and with no election in the offing, things are pretty much the same as the last one to two months with Labor holding a solid election winning lead (although no election is in the offing as I said a line or two earlier).
Pretty good position to be in, I think. Shorten is positioning Labor to make ‘honesty’ a key issue re this budget. Playing on the patent logical inconsistency between a government that prepares a budget designed not to scare the horses when up until a few months ago we were told that drastic action was critical so we didn’t end up like Greece (used to be Argentina for those with a long memory).
I can just picture it now.
Labor tells the voters: the Government changes the narrative every month – occasionally every week. Where is the honesty? Do you want a government that tells it like it is; or one that tells the public whatever they think the public wants to hear because they have no clue how to run a country?
[1782
TPOF]
The contest is going to be cast by the LNP as a choice between the party that will not put up taxes (the LNP) and the party that will (Labor).
Labor need to try to keep the terms of the debate focused around strong and credible public finance. It’s going to be a struggle.
Barney in an ideal world that would be true. Sadly out here in voter land even holding up things the Libs did not reveal before the election doesn’t always go down well. Limited action to prevent clearly unpopular moves is the only way to keep voters onside. Rhetoric re the rest is the only other option.
[The contest is going to be cast by the LNP as a choice between the party that will not put up taxes (the LNP) and the party that will (Labor).]
That is almost certainly the case. I wonder, though, whether public abhorrence of providing revenue is waning. Whether people actually are prepared to pay more in tax or at least not actively seek to reduce it as much if they can be satisfied that the system is getting fairer.
The Liberals will also accuse Labor of class warfare. Labor needs to focus on the message that everyone pay their fair share – rather than allow any suggestion of ‘soaking the rich’ getting out there.
The publicity about how LITTLE tax the large multinationals are paying plays into this theme.
Re Briefly @1783: Labor need to try to keep the terms of the debate focused around strong and credible public finance. It’s going to be a struggle
I that Labor also needs to push the negative message that voters cannot believe anything that Abbott or any member of his Government say. The 2014 Budget tells us what they want to do given the chance.
LU
[ Reposit – http://www.repositpower.com/ ]
Yes, I’m sure there will be niche players in the urban market, trading on the “cool” factor of the Tesla batteries. Time will tell if there is a real market here.
[ $2-3,000. ]
Well, I guess that’s not too bad for an “off grid” inverter. But it is about twice the price of an “on grid” inverter. Also, I’ll bet that’s in US dollars.
[ – How many lead acids do you need in parallel draw 3kW at 240V? ]
Well, that depends on the battery capacity, of course. And on how long you need the power. To get the equivalent of the Tesla batteries (10kWH) you need to spend about US$2000 on lead acid batteries. Say 4 x 6v batteries, rated at 800AH. Of course, here in Australia they will cost you about double the US price – but then so will the Telsa battery (I would think).
[ The contest is going to be cast by the LNP as a choice between the party that will not put up taxes (the LNP) and the party that will (Labor). ]
Abbott’s reported comments this week signal that very clearly. They are VERY keen to recycle the GBNT rhetoric so they can still bang on about the Carbon Tax and Mining Tax that they are so proud of removing.
That they think that will have the same traction indicates to me that they have no fwarking idea of what to do and are hoping that the next election campaign will be a re-run of the last.
They dont seem to get that perhaps people have moved on, are pretty well inoculated to the idea that there HAVE to be changes to revenue collection that are seen as fair, and really, really, really dont like the plans for spending cuts that affect lower / middle earners while leaving high earners and business effectively untouched.
In 2014 the Libs created a HUGE rod for their own backs by trying to push measures seen as unfair. And they look like STILL pushing some of those this year. I suspect that the GBNT argument is going to be too simplistic this time around.
[1786
Steve777
…Labor also needs to push the negative message that voters cannot believe anything that Abbott or any member of his Government say. The 2014 Budget tells us what they want to do given the chance.]
Sure. The thing is, voters generally disbelieve politicians anyway. The question will be who they are inclined to think will keep their promises on tax. The LNP will be able to describe themselves as they party that have repealed taxes.
They invariably offer a buy-two-get-one-free kind of deal to voters. The discount deals are always frauds but people tend to buy anyway.
Will they buy from Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey? Six months ago i would have said “No chance.” Now I’m less certain.
You know, i’d be very interested to know what the Lib cabinet really thinks is the reason for their long term poor showing in the polls.
imacca
[…what the Lib cabinet really thinks is the reason for their long term poor showing in the polls.]
Hint, the first word is Tony.
[ Hint, the first word is Tony. ]
Seriously Poroti. 🙂
They dont actually seem to be behaving that way or they would have somehow found a way to have dumped him BEFORE going to their critical second budget.
If they dump him June/July this year then we are almost at their third budget and almost into an election year before they actually get their act together to be an actual Govt in their first term.
They want to go to an election having demonstrably, completely wasted 2 years AND with unemployment pushing 7% ??
Another cable cut:
http://www.couriermail.com.au/questnews/east/damaged-cable-causes-service-outages-in-brisbanes-east/story-fni9r0lo-1227334441091
And we leaving them to a MTM network?
Galaxy’s polling for The Oz will still be branded as Newspoll.
@imacca/1792
Didn’t the public give him 6 months? How many months left now?
Labor and the Greens need to develop a coherent way of talking about macroeconomics. Reading, discussing, and adopting the ideas in this document would be a good place to start.
http://e1.newcastle.edu.au/coffee/pubs/wp/2013/13-06.pdf
I doubt Labor gives a damn what the Greens think about macroeconomics.
Nine News Sydney
9m9 minutes ago
Nine News Sydney @9NewsSyd
Forecasters predicting $150b deficit
@victoria/1798
Blame Labor/Greens time, divide and conquer!
Get ready for more austerity cuts!
This article answers the question of why the ABC gives so much uncritical coverage to the reports of Deloitte Access Economics.
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=30819