Two new polls this week from ReachTEL and Essential Research cause the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to tick 0.3% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred, which yields only one gain on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. The leadership ratings have been updated with the results from Morgan’s phone poll, a strikingly good (relatively speaking) result for Tony Abbott that causes the already sharp momentum in his favour to carry him to parity with Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister. Full results as always on the sidebar.
For those wishing to discuss next week’s British election, note that the dedicated post has been bumped up the order and appears below this one (with a new Seat of the Week below that). Home news:
• Cameron Atfield of Fairfax reports the Queensland Senate vacancy created by the resignation of Brett Mason, who has taken up the position of ambassador to the Netherlands, has attracted nine Liberal National Party candidates. They include Nicholas Monsour, managing director of a consultancy firm and brother-in-law of Campbell Newman; Bill Glasson, an ophthalmologist, former Australian Medical Association president and twice candidate for Griffith, firstly against Kevin Rudd at the 2013 election and then at the by-election held the following February after his resignation; Theresa Craig, president of the Agribusiness Association of Australia; Kerri-Anne Dooley, unsuccessful state election candidate for Redcliffe; along with “company director Teresa Harding, project officer Joanna Lindgren, company director Chris Mangan and lawyers Philip Roberts and Andrew Wallace”. The matter will be determined at a meeting of the party’s state council on May 16.
• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports that Queensland Labor’s preselection nominations process is approaching its conclusion with no candidates emerging in opposition to Wayne Swan in Lilley, despite earlier talk he might face a challenge, or Milton Dick in Oxley. Dick stands to succeed sitting member Bernie Ripoll, who will retire at the next election after appearing to be headed for defeat at the hands of Dick in any case.
• The Australian Electoral Commission is inviting submissions for the federal redistribution of New South Wales until May 22, and for the Australian Capital Territory redistribution until May 29.
The one most likely?
[Bill Glasson, an ophthalmologist, former Australian Medical Association president and twice candidate for Griffith]
Billy ain’t got no cut through. Can you hear the people sing “burkey, burkey”!
Dweena you ole shit stirrer
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
This is a good example of why we don’t just want a rubber stamp as a Senate.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bali-nine-executions-australian-federal-police-to-break-silence-on-bali-nine-20150429-1mvyex.html
This sort of behaviour from their own support base will further force public opinion in favour of a crackdown on loopholes and new legislation to prevent it.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tax-office-statistics-reveal-the-55-millionaires-who-paid-no-tax-20150429-1mw2zp.html
Jess Irvine looks at this revelation and tells us what is wrong with our supposedly egalitarian state.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/something-is-rotten-in-australias-supposed-egalitarian-state-20150429-1mvwmf.html
Elizabeth Farrelly urges us to tackle climate change by emulating the Anzacs.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/lets-emulate-diggers-sacrifice-to-tackle-climate-change-20150429-1mvr06.html
The Lowy Institute has quite a bit to say on the “Stop the Boats!” policy.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-boat-policy-will-not-solve-longterm-crisis-of-asylum-lowy-institute-20150429-1mw5g8.html
“View from the Street” is a little worried about what the TPP may do to us.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-say-are-we-changing-the-pharmaceutical-benefits-scheme-20150429-1mw0jz.html
The “War on Drugs” must stop right now says the Noffs Foundation.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-war-on-drugs-must-end-now-20150429-1mvmra.html
Alex Greenwich explains the way in which SSM can successfully get through Parliament.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/major-parties-should-cast-aside-internal-party-squabbles-and-work-together-for-marriage-equality-20150429-1muwqq.html
It looks like Apple could do with a good grounding in the concept of FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis). I would guess a RPN of around 300 which would demand action.
http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/wearables/tattoogate-apple-watch-malfunctions-on-some-tattooed-arms-20150429-1mwek1.html
A grim warning from the PBO over this federal government’s penchant for cost shifting. And it pours cold water over the “debt and deficit” mantra.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/parliamentary-budget-office-warns-federal-government-decisions-have-put-more-pressure-on-state-government-budgets-20150429-1mw4fp.html
Section 2 . . .
What will happen to UK foreign policy after the election next week?
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/uk-election-possibilities-shared-power-would-have-global-impact-20150429-1muqy4.html
Domestic violence in western NSW is beyond a state of emergency.
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/apr/30/endemic-domestic-violence-has-pushed-western-nsw-past-a-state-of-emergency
The reason Hockey won’t go near negative gearing.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2015/04/29/lib-voters-property-tax-help/
The $700000 donation to the LNP in Queensland might end up as having been wasted.
https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/coal-mine-expansion-approved-after-700k-lnp-donation-faces-hurdle,7640
Hundreds of ATO’s casual workers in Albury are about to lose their jobs.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/ato-to-cut-hundreds-of-casuals-from-albury-office-20150429-1mvqt6.html
Is a reverse mortgage a risky undertaking?
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/4/30/national-affairs/reverse-mortgage-risky-business
Julian Burnside has taken up arms against the bullying tactics over Myki fines.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/commuters-bullied-into-paying-myki-fines-claims-julian-burnside-20150429-1mw60w.html
Section 3 . . .
Alan Moir reminds us of the Catholic influence within the ALP.
David Pope with an unflattering portrayal of the AFP.
Mark Knight with some collateral damage at the firing squad.
David Rowe says it all.
Morning all. Thanks BK.
This analysis of real wages by Greg Jericho highlights where unions have made little difference.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-29/jericho-unions-not-necessarily-the-hero-in-wages-war/6429738
This article about Labor’s mad uncle Fester shows us why. Old men with old ideas lead it.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/shadow-minister-david-feeney-lashes-tanya-plibersek-and-the-left-over-palestine-same-sex-marriage-20150429-1mvuko.html
As well as having social ideas that are old, another reason for the decline in relevance of unions has been the almost total failure of them to appeal to the growing proportion of workers in professional and technical roles, most of whom are largely unrepresented in IR issues. I was one a member of the Professinal Officers Association, until I realised it was a total waste of time and money. The leadership seemed to assume that all professionals were either looked after by their professional groups (certainly false for engineers) or were well paid anyway. The legion of workers in IT on the average wage or less highlights this massive blunder.
UK Election update (Wed)
a.3 national polls today; Con 3% ahead, ‘Tied’ and
Con 1% ahead
b.A poll of 50 marginal seats (not Ashcroft) showing a swing of 3.5% to Lab. This swing suggests a tied national race.
c.Limited Ashcroft constituency polling, but involving 2 big names showing them both losing (just) – Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage
d.Latest poll in Scotland gives the SNP 54%
Ray thanks. If nothing else I hope Nick Clegg loses in the UK election. He had a great opportunity, and squandered it. He has done as much good for his party as Meg Lees did for the democrats.
BK that article in theNew Daily on negative gearing is excellent. It highlights why Bowen’s challenge to negative gearing rules is politically as well as economically well targetted.
[The electorates of Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull, Julie Bishop, Joe Hockey and Josh Frydenberg all feature in the top 10 electorates to benefit from negative gearing.]
http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2015/04/29/lib-voters-property-tax-help/
Socrates
The Ashcroft findings in Sheffield Hallam (Clegg) are pretty extraordinary, the level of tactical voting is huge. This poll has him 1% behind Labour who were miles back in 3rd last time. The question now is if Tories will switch to save him or rump-LDs/Greens will pile on to beat him.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/04/cisa-china-peak-steel/
steel in decline
Ray
Better Red than Clegg? That guy is the epitome of a scheming political machine man. I can only hope the rump LD/Greens do pile onto Labor to beat him. I do not understand why the LD did not dump him years ago.
Baltimore courts are imposing $100,000+ bale figures on protestors arrested after the killing of black man Freddie Grey by police. Is Maryland the new Texas?
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/apr/29/baltimore-justice-system-protests-curfew
Socrates
He’s been very hostile to Labour all along, I suspect he’s doing it to shore up the vulnerable LibDems in the south – but ironically I think it hurts him in Sheffield. Sheffield was never Thatcher/Tebbit country. I’m only a few miles away so watching with great interest.
Morning all. Interesting reading.
[The Coalition no longer directs the Australian Federal Police to take account of the government’s “longstanding opposition” to the death penalty when deciding what information it shares with foreign law enforcement agencies.
Revelations that the Coalition’s directive to the AFP had been altered last year to remove the death penalty condition came on the day Australian drug smugglers Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran were executed in Indonesia, reigniting anger about the AFP’s role in tipping off Indonesia about the Bali Nine in 2005.
Opposition justice spokesman David Feeney last night wrote to Justice Minister Michael Keenan, urging him to reinstate the reference to the government’s opposition to the death penalty in his direction to the AFP and demanding an explanation of why it was dropped. Mr Keenan last year issued a new ministerial direction to the AFP outlining the Coalition’s priorities and expectations for the agency, which scrapped a specific requirement that the AFP “take account of the government’s longstanding opposition to the application of the death penalty in performing its international liaison functions”.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/foreign-affairs/ignore-death-penalty-australian-federal-police-told/story-fn59nm2j-1227327517876
Where were all you leftwing freedom of speech fighters for Scott McIntyre when some Immigration Detention guards were sacked… not for saying anything but simply being photographed at a Reclaim Australia rally?
“Wonder if the poorly-read, largely white, nationalist drinkers and gamblers pause today to consider the horror that all mankind suffered.”
Nice one Scottie…
Ray
My strong perception of Clegg is that deep down he always was a Tory at heart. Just as Meg Lees here led the democrats far too close to Liberal PM Howard, Clegg was far too accommodating of the UK Conservatives. So I think it is partly tactical, partly a reflection of his own leaning.
Only a few more days before we see Joe Hockey’s financial genius MkII. So sure to be lots more biased media releases arguing why financial planners should be exempted from paying tax and other hogwash. Have a good day all.
[16
confessions
Morning all. Interesting reading.]
Hi confessions. Thanks for this. More Tory betrayal.
Myers’ evidence in Rush v AFP, at least in the way that is summarised by Justice Finn, only suggests conversations with the AFP about detaining Rush at Sydney not anything about the Bali 9 generally.
If Myers says he revealed more to the AFP prior to Rush’s departure, then Xenophon should get him to attend the Senate hearing and give that account.
briefly:
You may also find this interesting reading.
http://www.pipingshrike.com/2015/04/the-new-regionalism-another-update.html
[17
TrueBlueAussie]
I know where I was when the goons were outed. They identified themselves with the racist fraud Pauline Hanson. Of course they should expect to be sacked. They also gave us a visual on the militarisation of civil government. In this respect, they did the public a favour, which is the real reason they were dismissed.
[21
confessions
briefly:
You may also find this interesting reading.
http://www.pipingshrike.com/2015/04/the-new-regionalism-another-update.html%5D
Thanks confessions. You’re right…interesting.
[17
TrueBlueAussie]
What are you trying to defend? Racist gibberish? The militarisation of civil affairs? Imperialist war-making? Violence in general?
Kelly O’Dwyer was banging on about labor’s “debt and deficit disaster” in response to a possible loss of the triple A rating from one of the ratings agencies.
She reckons baaad Labor in the Senate holding up the budget’s really big measures to address the crisis is to blame. But but but Tones’ told us the required budgetary “heavy lifting” has been done so all is now good. Which one is bullshitting ? A hard choice .
I am now slightly confused as to the Aust govt’s policy on the death penalty. I am even more confused on Barnaby’s beliefs (situation normal there).
The pollies are allowing us to assume that Australia does not support putting anyone to death. Are they talking out of both sides of their mouths?
Is the Labor conference the time to reiterate Labor’s attitude?
poroti
It’s time the lesser lights of the Coalition realised they are in government and repeating the mantras of the election merely illustrates their lack of good sense.
Briefly,
Scott McIntyre was found out to be an anti-Australian, anti-white racist and he has now been sacked from the SBS for good reason.
What I would like is just a touch of consistency from the left now and again.
[7
Socrates
As well as having social ideas that are old, another reason for the decline in relevance of unions has been the almost total failure of them to appeal to the growing proportion of workers in professional and technical roles, most of whom are largely unrepresented in IR issues. I was one a member of the Professinal Officers Association, until I realised it was a total waste of time and money. The leadership seemed to assume that all professionals were either looked after by their professional groups (certainly false for engineers) or were well paid anyway. The legion of workers in IT on the average wage or less highlights this massive blunder.]
Why blame the unions? Since it’s always been open to workers to join them and play a role in their affairs, it’s also relevant to ask why technical and professional workers have generally not done so. Perhaps it’s because of the social perception that unions are organs of manual workers and tradespeople (they belong to a “less valued” part of the social and economic order) or perhaps it’s because unions have been systematically vilified for decades by the Tories and people have grown reluctant to affiliate themselves with “outsider” units.
Perhaps it’s just another reflection of the general de-membering we have experienced since the 1970s. People do not “join” as they once did but find other ways to socialise and affiliate.
[28
TrueBlueAussie
Briefly,
Scott McIntyre was found out to be an anti-Australian, anti-white racist]
How can it be anti-Australian to question warring and soldiering? This could only be true if war-making were somehow to be made a prerequisite for citizenship. With almost no exceptions, diggers hate wars because of what it does to those who have the misfortune to fight them. Of those who fought in the Great War, almost every single one would have declared it a completely senseless and worthless waste.
The diggers of the Great War would generally agree it was started and fought on the basis of self-serving lies. You should read John Curtin on that war. Australia’s greatest son certainly understood what it was about. It’s fair to say the lies about the Great War are still being recycled and misused to this day.
An anti-white racist? You clearly do not understand that racism is essentially about hatred and the violence and exclusion that accompanies it.
[ “View from the Street” is a little worried about what the TPP may do to us. ]
Yup. The TPP will torpedo our PBS and also our plain packaging legislation. It’s a disaster waiting to happen.
Surely no Australian government of any persuasion would be imbecilic enough to sign up to it?
Player One
Andrew Robb sincerely believes that he is smarter than anyone else in the world. Wasn’t he part of the strategy team for the Libs in the recent Victorian election 🙂
[Surely no Australian government of any persuasion would be imbecilic enough to sign up to it?]
imbecilic would be an upgrade for this lot…
The tax man cometh?
[ Apple has warned investors that it could face “material” financial penalties from the European Commission’s investigation into its tax deals with Ireland — the first time it has disclosed the potential consequences of the probe.
Under US securities rules, a material event is usually defined as 5 per cent of a company’s average pre-tax earnings for the past three years. For Apple, which reported the highest quarterly profit ever for a US company in January, that could exceed $2.5bn, according to FT calculations.
The warning came in Apple’s regular 10-Q filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday, a day after it reported first-quarter revenues of $58bn and net income of $13.6bn.
Brussels has the power to order Dublin to reclaim 10 years of tax advantages granted to Apple if it finds that deals struck in 1991 and 2007 were unlawful.
Both the Irish government and Apple have consistently denied any wrongdoing and declined to comment on the size of any fine. However, some Brussels officials suggest any ruling could set a new record for a state-aid investigation penalty by comfortably topping €1bn.
Apple said in the filing: “If the European Commission were to conclude against Ireland, it could require Ireland to recover from the company past taxes covering a period of up to 10 years reflective of the disallowed state aid, and such amount could be material.” ]
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-29/apple-warns-material-financial-damage-if-its-171-billion-offshore-cash-jeopardized
You know – what really worries me about the TPP is that the parts that have been made public are so horrifying that it begs the question of just how much worse are the parts that are still being kept secret (:
[Whether it’s outrage at Scott McIntyre’s Anzac Day tweets or Samantha Armytage’s on-air comments, camps are quickly divided into “left” and “right” and any chance of constructive discussion is lost, writes Jonathan Green.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-30/green-weve-nothing-to-fear-but-our-sense-of-certainty/6432502
Perhaps it is now a good time to propose an integrated and indigenous nation on the whole island of New Guinea …
[35
Player One
You know – what really worries me about the TPP is that the parts that have been made public are so horrifying that it begs the question of just how much worse are the parts that are still being kept secret (:]
To come into effect, the TPP will have to be legislated. It’s most unlikely the Senate will pass measures that would undermine either existing laws or its own ability to pass new measures in the future.
Robb has a point about negotiating without disclosing your own hand. In some ways, the public doubts being raised about the TPP make it easier for him to bargain with other countries.
Just the same, free trade agreements are seldom about either freedom or trade. They are usually about restricting both.
TrueBlueAssie
[Scott McIntyre was found out to be an anti-Australian, anti-white racist and he has now been sacked from the SBS for good reason.]
I thought you right-wingers revered free speech, especially when espousing racism and bigotry. Or is it only when minorities are denigrated that you invoke the spirit of Voltaire?
[28
TrueBlueAussie]
We would all like for some honesty from the right. We have been disappointed for decades.
[The head of a major Sydney business lobby group has come out swinging against the Baird and Abbott governments’ road-building agenda, while also slamming the boss of the WestConnex project for trying to divide the city.
The chief executive of the Committee for Sydney, Tim Williams, told an audience at the University of Sydney last week all sides of politics had “got it wrong” on the city’s transport priorities, criticising them for a lack of ambition in promoting public transport in the growing metropolis.]
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/committee-for-sydneys-tim-williams-slams-road-building-plans-for-city-20150429-1mv3vq.html
briefly
[ Just the same, free trade agreements are seldom about either freedom or trade. They are usually about restricting both. ]
I agree – but I have never heard of a “trade agreement” so specifically designed to overrule the sovereign rights of other governments. As far as I can tell, this is the only purpose of the TPP. It is so one-sided (favoring the USA) that I’m surprised it is even still being discussed by the other countries involved.
Abbott government not actually serious about opposition to death penalty.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bali-9-executions-abbott-government-backflipped-on-afp-death-penalty-directive-20150429-1mwh1t.html
[28
TrueBlueAussie]
The particular lie used today to explain why we were drawn into the Great War was the claim that our freedom or even the freedom of Great Britain was at risk. This was never true.
Consider this summary, which includes many references to the remarks of those instrumental in going to war at all:
http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1415/AustToWar1914
In particular, consider the implications of this:
[A second notable issue is that Australia had no choice about whether to go to war. Notwithstanding that the Australian Constitution provided that the Commonwealth Parliament could legislate with respect to both defence and external affairs (subsections 51(vi) and (xxix) respectively), and the Executive had the broader executive power of section 61, the Australian Government knew that the British Imperial Government remained responsible for the foreign policy of the empire including declarations of war and the power to enter treaties. This reflected the legal status of all of Britain’s self-governing colonies, which also went to war: Canada, New Zealand, and South Africa and remained the case in Australia until the enactment of the Statute of Westminster (Adoption) Act 1942 (Cth). As former High Court Chief Justice Mason noted, ‘the Constitution did not in 1901 enable Australia to enter into a treaty with a foreign State or make a declaration of war’.]
In other words, we went to war not of our own volition but because, even if we had wished to refuse, we had no constitutional alternative. The British Cabinet decided we would fight on the basis of a circumstantial convenience – that France had an obligation to Russia.
The War was not about our freedom and still less about our nationhood. It was fought as a matter of imperial command. In fact, this also meant we fought on the basis of a deception by Sir Edward Grey as to the real effect of his undertakings to France.
It was a monumental war inspired by monumental lies that have been disinterred and engraved as national myth.
Abbott government not actually serious
but a very serious problem
[ I am even more confused on Barnaby’s beliefs (situation normal there). ]
lizzie, even Barnaby is confused as to his beliefs so thats no reflection on you. 🙂
Abbott gov has just turned into a lazy goverment.
briefly
[The particular lie used today to explain why we were drawn into the Great War was the claim that our freedom or even the freedom of Great Britain was at risk]
Howard was the first I remember trying that line out. Reckoned the ANZACs “fought for our freedom” . A real wtf? moment.
[Abbott gov has just turned into a lazy goverment]
Just turned into??????