BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

The latest weekly poll aggregate reading suggests the Coalition’s recent recovery has tapered off, but leadership ratings continue to be a fly in Bill Shorten’s ointment.

Two new polls this week from ReachTEL and Essential Research cause the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to tick 0.3% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred, which yields only one gain on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. The leadership ratings have been updated with the results from Morgan’s phone poll, a strikingly good (relatively speaking) result for Tony Abbott that causes the already sharp momentum in his favour to carry him to parity with Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister. Full results as always on the sidebar.

For those wishing to discuss next week’s British election, note that the dedicated post has been bumped up the order and appears below this one (with a new Seat of the Week below that). Home news:

• Cameron Atfield of Fairfax reports the Queensland Senate vacancy created by the resignation of Brett Mason, who has taken up the position of ambassador to the Netherlands, has attracted nine Liberal National Party candidates. They include Nicholas Monsour, managing director of a consultancy firm and brother-in-law of Campbell Newman; Bill Glasson, an ophthalmologist, former Australian Medical Association president and twice candidate for Griffith, firstly against Kevin Rudd at the 2013 election and then at the by-election held the following February after his resignation; Theresa Craig, president of the Agribusiness Association of Australia; Kerri-Anne Dooley, unsuccessful state election candidate for Redcliffe; along with “company director Teresa Harding, project officer Joanna Lindgren, company director Chris Mangan and lawyers Philip Roberts and Andrew Wallace”. The matter will be determined at a meeting of the party’s state council on May 16.

• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports that Queensland Labor’s preselection nominations process is approaching its conclusion with no candidates emerging in opposition to Wayne Swan in Lilley, despite earlier talk he might face a challenge, or Milton Dick in Oxley. Dick stands to succeed sitting member Bernie Ripoll, who will retire at the next election after appearing to be headed for defeat at the hands of Dick in any case.

• The Australian Electoral Commission is inviting submissions for the federal redistribution of New South Wales until May 22, and for the Australian Capital Territory redistribution until May 29.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,936 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  3. briefy, while I admire your persistence, trying to educate TBA is a futile exercise, which obviously nobody has succeeded with in the past.

    To reach (presumably) adulthood with such a widespread and thorough level of ignorance is quite an achievement of sorts.

  6. briefly

    [It was a monumental war inspired by monumental lies that have been disinterred and engraved as national myth.]

    Eloquently said.

    It has to be said there are people who remain faithful to the true spirit of Anzac – the horror of war; the slaughter of young soldiers; and the misery of civilians caught up in it all. These usually include veterans themselves.

    Unfortunately, there are those who want to use the word ‘Anzac’ to promote their own brand of patriotism or militarism. I think McIntyre was taking issue with that. If he had chosen his words more carefully, he may have sparked a genuine debate.

  7. The reports today:

    [ The Coalition no longer directs the Australian Federal Police to take account of the government’s “longstanding opposition” to the death penalty when deciding what information it shares with foreign law enforcement agencies.

    Revelations that the Coalition’s directive to the AFP had been ­altered last year to remove the death penalty condition came on the day Australian drug smugglers Andrew Chan and Myuran ­Sukumaran were executed in Indonesia, reigniting anger about the AFP’s role in tipping off Indonesia about the Bali Nine in 2005.]

    Are something that the Govt and the AFP are going to have to explain. It could turn into something highly politicly charged and it will be interesting to see how the ALP handles it.

    Unless the Coalition argues thats its factually untrue then is suspect it will be very damaging.

    Seems to me that Shorten and Xenophon are taking the right tack on this. Low key, not jumping in and hyping it up, but putting some questions that need to be answered on the table.

    If the Coalition gets hysterical in its defence then it will not be a good look.

  10. Some light humour and cause for reflection

    Stuart Littlemore back in 2001 had a 15 minute segment on ABC titled simply ‘Littlemore’

    The following clip from YouTube is a classic Littlemore smackdown of our friends the IPA

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZ_Kbiwl2ok

    Included in the jolly bunch of people is one P P McGuiness.

    I was laughing out loud last night at the ineptitude of this bunch of clowns.

    (I was also trying to source Doug ‘Dougie’ Cameron’s smackdown of Chris Berg at Senate Estimates last year)

  13. Ctar1

    [Keenan was doing his best this morning to make it sound like Labor did it.]

    I noticed that and was reminded of Jonathan Green’s view on the vapidity of the discourse, where everything has to be the other’s fault.

    Have to say Libs have the best spinmeisters.

  14. imacca

    [it will be interesting to see how the ALP handles it.]
    The ALP guy interviewed on Sky was playing with a very straight bat . Labor’s enquiries merely to find out the facts.

  15. [Keenan was doing his best this morning to make it sound like Labor did it.]

    SOP for the whole Government.

    There was a reason why Abbott said at the beginning that his government would be a government of no excuses – focus groups told them the public hated excuses from a government.

    But they are so addicted to blaming others and to making themselves out to be victims they cannot help themselves. And the more at sea they get, the more they instinctively resort to doing what pisses off the public big time – blaming the other side and not taking responsibility for their own actions.

  16. “HuffPost Australia, a joint venture between The Huffington Post and Fairfax Media, has appointed News Corp journalist Tory Maguire as its first editor-in-chief.”

    Isn’t Tory just that, a Tory?

  17. [And the more at sea they get, the more they instinctively resort to doing what pisses off the public big time – blaming the other side and not taking responsibility for their own actions.]

    Abbott to a T. An organisation always adopts the character of the CEO.

    What ‘pisses me off big time’ is the media repeating ‘both sides are the same’.

  18. Aly

    [Lee Rush was trying to protect his son. He did the first thing that many of us would have done; he went to the police. He trusted that the AFP would stop the Bali nine from leaving the country and stop this catastrophe in its tracks.]

    If you are going to make statements about this on TV, then some careful checking of the facts is warranted.

    Lee Rush went to his son’s lawyer who had acted for him in minor criminal matters.

    There is nothing to suggest Lee knew anything about the Bali 9 when he did do. He only surmised, correctly, that his son was up to no good in going to Bali.

    This more contemporary interview reveals Lee Rush’s knowledge of events

    [http://www.abc.net.au/austory/content/2006/s1568901.htm]

  19. [In other words, we went to war not of our own volition but because, even if we had wished to refuse, we had no constitutional alternative.]

    Even in 1939 (so still before the SoW was adopted) Menzies wording was that Australia was at war “as a consequence” of Britain’s decision.

  20. [Where were all you leftwing freedom of speech fighters for Scott McIntyre when some Immigration Detention guards were sacked… not for saying anything but simply being photographed at a Reclaim Australia rally?]

    Personally, despite despising the politics on display, and, even more deplorably, as an indication of the anti-asylum seeker framework of cruelty our country is administering, I was more than a little uncomfortable with these people being sacked for a political expression.

  21. Couple of days ago some PBers were quite disparaging of Social Media in general ..and Twitter in particular. That’s OK, they are wholly entitled to their opinion.

    However, Social Media is going from strength to strength and providing an un-mediated platform (or series of platforms, including: Twitter, Reddit, Youtube, Instagram & the most popular by a long way, Facebook) which anyone can use to express a view. Blogs are not strictly speaking ‘pure’ Social Media platforms, as they are invariably moderated.

    The democratic access provided by these internet-based media platforms results in expressed views many will find obnoxious ..even abusive. Racism, homophobia, intolerance of minority groups, etc. is found there. Just like it’s found in any democracy ..or indeed, any other form of society.

    Social Media is informative ..amusing ..annoying ..disrespectful ..abusive ..frustrating ..vital ..alive. It is the truest reflection of our vibrant, diverse and very rich society.

    I love it..

    PS: Ed Milliband was ridiculed by Cameron & his Tory backers in the media for agreeing to an i/v with Russell Brand. Trouble is, Brand has a Youtube station called: ‘The Trews’ (Truth/News ..geddit?) which has more than a million subscribers. Since it was broadcast, the i/v has been praised for its “authenticity” and now many UK commentators are suggesting it was a shrewd move by Milliband.

  23. TBA
    Hey, insect, it appears you are out bashing your Liebral drum for Toniliar again,

    Just a request, can you change the tune a bit please. You are like a cicada rubbing out the same note all day and night.

    It’s enough o make one’s ears bleed.

  24. Puff

    [Just a request, can you change the tune a bit please. You are like a cicada rubbing out the same note all day and night. ]

    TBA certainly certainly likes to “rub one out”, but it has nothing to do with cicadas.

  27. SGH

    There is a wealth of worthy material from Littlemore on YouTube. Thanks for the link

    the IPA one is classic. Interesting to me is that 15 years on the right wing is still fighting the same battles.

  29. kakaru

    And how has Scott McIntyre’s freedom of speech been compromised? He can freely tell anyone his point of view until he’s blue in the face but he wont be punished by any court.

  30. It seems that Keenan was even more a pig that I thought:

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/outraged-and-offended-bipartisanship-breaks-down-on-bali-nine-executions-20150430-1mwmth.html

    Bipartisanship means that both sides take the same approach and policy to the same issue.

    It does not, and never has, meant that a particular matter is off the table and the government of the day cannot be asked to account for its conduct and actions. It has always been the position of the Liberals under Abbott, whether in opposition or in government, that bipartisanship meant nothing more and nothing less than agreeing with them. Ditto for consensus and acting in the national interest.

    And these people, and their urgers in the business community actually believe that:

    [We’re right; you’re wrong. We can’t have bipartisanship until and unless you accept that]

    And then they say, especially regarding the Senate cross-benchers:

    [Everything we do is in the national interest. If you don’t let us do it you are against the national interest and un-Australian]

    Again – they really believe it.

  32. vic –

    [How could Keenan do so. ]

    He kept on mentioning that Labor changed the ‘directive’ in 2009 trying to infer that they’d taken the death sentence bit out.

  37. [There is a wealth of worthy material from Littlemore on YouTube. Thanks for the link]

    The one in which he made fun of Alan Jones upon the demise of his TV show in 1994 was a beauty.

    WTTE by Littlemore:

    “It would be in appropriate to make fun of the programme after its demise. On bugger it, let’s.”

  39. [@political_alert: Statement from Justice Minister Michael Keenan on AFP National Guidelines #auspol http://t.co/g4NH3tl5k8%5D

    David Feeney asked why the official Ministerial Direction was changed. He did not ask about the internal guidelines. Keenan’s statement addresses the internal guidelines and lays on the wounded outrage in spades. Keenan does not even mention the Ministerial Direction.

    Typical Liberal. Typical weasel.

    Will the mainstream press take up this patently obvious attempt to misrepresent David Feeney’s concern and hold Keenan to account? Odds are strongly against it.

    It’s times like this that I really welcome independent and micro-party Senators like Nick Xenophon who can ask the questions that need to be ask and not just be misrepresented as political opponents looking to attack the government.

  40. Desert Pox

    [And how has Scott McIntyre’s freedom of speech been compromised? He can freely tell anyone his point of view until he’s blue in the face but he wont be punished by any court.]

    He was fired. Isn’t that punishment enough?

    Frankly, I thought the tweets were in appalling taste and factually inaccurate. But the same applies to Bolt, and he got to keep his job(s).

    SBS had no choice but to fire McIntyre. What I find sickening is the triumphalism and hypocrisy from the Right. You guys are always banging on about free speech – up until someone says something you don’t like. Then you’re “un-Australian” – whatever the frig that means.

  42. [53
    adrian

    briefy, while I admire your persistence, trying to educate TBA is a futile exercise, which obviously nobody has succeeded with in the past.

    To reach (presumably) adulthood with such a widespread and thorough level of ignorance is quite an achievement of sorts.]

    lol

    He has no chance of changing my mind either. But a troll can still be some use.

  43. Is Scott McIntyre serious? Anzacs were rapists and the nuking of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were acts of terrorism??? After Iwo Jima and Okinowa it undoubtedly saved hundreds of thousands of allied lives.

  44. Shellbell

    [“It would be in appropriate to make fun of the programme after its demise. On bugger it, let’s.”]

    I remember seeing that one.

  45. [69
    Martin B

    In other words, we went to war not of our own volition but because, even if we had wished to refuse, we had no constitutional alternative.

    Even in 1939 (so still before the SoW was adopted) Menzies wording was that Australia was at war “as a consequence” of Britain’s decision.]

    Quite so. All the more amazing that Britain would summon Australia to war in 1939 only to abandon us two years later. Keating was quite right about their betrayal.

  46. Desert Fox

    I don’t care if McIntyre was serious or not. What I care about is that free speech is under attack.

    See Media Alliance statement why this is an attack on free speech if you are too dim to work it out. I posted a statement by them yesterday.

    They take it seriously enough they are saying this issue could come to industrial action so no news reports from journalists in Australia until employers learn there are indeed limits on what they can ask of employees.

  47. Again Kakaru, has he been dragged through the courts? No.
    Being sacked by SBS has somehow wrecked his freedom of speech? How?

    If he had said instead that all Aboriginals were unintelligent and women deserved to be raped then he still shouldn’t have been sacked?

    Whats the difference between SBS and Poll Bludger? You cant say whatever you like here either. Its moderated for a reason. Is Poll Bludger suppressing your freedom of speech?

  49. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Posted Thursday, April 30, 2015 at 11:34 am | Permalink

    TBA
    Hey, insect, it appears you are out bashing your Liebral drum for Toniliar again,

    Just a request, can you change the tune a bit please. You are like a cicada rubbing out the same note all day and night.

    It’s enough o make one’s ears bleed.
    ]

    Hi Puff,

    That’s a bit harsh on the Troll,

    If, as you suggest, the Troll is an insect, he’s hardly going to have the vocal capacity to sing more than one tune.

  50. Soc and Ray,

    [My strong perception of Clegg is that deep down he always was a Tory at heart. Just as Meg Lees here led the democrats far too close to Liberal PM Howard, Clegg was far too accommodating of the UK Conservatives. ]

    I was living in the south of England when the LD joined the Cons in coalition. There were plenty of pissed-off LD voters in Hants, Sussex, Surry and Dorset (where I was playing cricket), and I can see very few of them switching to the Cons, or further right for that matter.

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