BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

The latest weekly poll aggregate reading suggests the Coalition’s recent recovery has tapered off, but leadership ratings continue to be a fly in Bill Shorten’s ointment.

Two new polls this week from ReachTEL and Essential Research cause the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to tick 0.3% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred, which yields only one gain on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. The leadership ratings have been updated with the results from Morgan’s phone poll, a strikingly good (relatively speaking) result for Tony Abbott that causes the already sharp momentum in his favour to carry him to parity with Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister. Full results as always on the sidebar.

For those wishing to discuss next week’s British election, note that the dedicated post has been bumped up the order and appears below this one (with a new Seat of the Week below that). Home news:

Cameron Atfield of Fairfax reports the Queensland Senate vacancy created by the resignation of Brett Mason, who has taken up the position of ambassador to the Netherlands, has attracted nine Liberal National Party candidates. They include Nicholas Monsour, managing director of a consultancy firm and brother-in-law of Campbell Newman; Bill Glasson, an ophthalmologist, former Australian Medical Association president and twice candidate for Griffith, firstly against Kevin Rudd at the 2013 election and then at the by-election held the following February after his resignation; Theresa Craig, president of the Agribusiness Association of Australia; Kerri-Anne Dooley, unsuccessful state election candidate for Redcliffe; along with “company director Teresa Harding, project officer Joanna Lindgren, company director Chris Mangan and lawyers Philip Roberts and Andrew Wallace”. The matter will be determined at a meeting of the party’s state council on May 16.

Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports that Queensland Labor’s preselection nominations process is approaching its conclusion with no candidates emerging in opposition to Wayne Swan in Lilley, despite earlier talk he might face a challenge, or Milton Dick in Oxley. Dick stands to succeed sitting member Bernie Ripoll, who will retire at the next election after appearing to be headed for defeat at the hands of Dick in any case.

• The Australian Electoral Commission is inviting submissions for the federal redistribution of New South Wales until May 22, and for the Australian Capital Territory redistribution until May 29.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,936 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 39
1 2 3 4 39
  1. Guytaur

    You can’t answer the simplest question. How has his freedom of speech been compromised? Where was all this concern about freedom of speech when Bolt was dragged through the courts? McIntyre can repeat his comments ad nauseum. Bolt can’t.

  2. [briefly

    Posted Thursday, April 30, 2015 at 11:51 am | Permalink

    He has no chance of changing my mind either. But a troll can still be some use.
    ]

    Comic relief?

  3. Bishop now attacking Labor on AFP guidelines.

    Labor Politiscing. On the issue.

    Obviously not seen the Joyce Lateline interview. Not heard the comments from one of the fathers about what happened.

    By attacking Labor in this way it is the LNP making politics out of this.

    All the LNP had to say was we think Labor is wrong but we will look at it and if changes are indeed needed we will make them.

  4. Desert Pox

    [Is Scott McIntyre serious? Anzacs were rapists and the nuking of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were acts of terrorism??? After Iwo Jima and Okinowa it undoubtedly saved hundreds of thousands of allied lives.]

    That’s not the point. McIntyre was exercising his right to have a contrarian opinion regarding the Anzac tradition.

    BTW, as for the nuking of Japan, one could argue that Nagasaki was overkill (quite literally). Didn’t Hiroshima make the point?

  5. [93
    Desert Fox

    the nuking of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were acts of terrorism??? After Iwo Jima and Okinowa it undoubtedly saved hundreds of thousands of allied lives.]

    Maybe. Maybe not. MacArthur didn’t think so. In his opinion Japan had been seeking an end to the war for weeks prior to Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Equally likely the bombs were dropped to demonstrate US power to the Soviet Union who were about to invade Japan. If this was the intention, the bombings were simply human sacrifice on a spectacular scale.

  6. The only necessary guideline is a guarantee re the death penalty (and I suppose torture) but does anyone know if such a guarantee:

    (a) binds a court hearing the matter;
    (b) endures beyond a change of government.

  7. Greens senators Peter Whish-Wilson, Scott Ludlam and Larissa Waters have been speaking up on the dangers of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement.

    Their good work was acknowledged by two Australian activists who spoke at my latest local Greens speaker nights open to all interested people.

    The speakers were: Dr David Legge, Associate Professor, School of Public Health, Latrobe University; and, Samantha Castro, Friends of the Earth. Samantha was arrested in early 2012 when the TPP was being negotiated in Melbourne.

    Useful sources for info on the TPP:

    1. AFTINET: Australian Fair Trade & Investment Network Ltd: http://aftinet.org.au/cms/trans-pacific-partnership-agreement

    2. FOE: http://www.foe.org/projects/economics-for-the-earth/trade/trans-pacific-partnership

    3. Public Citizen: protecting health, safety and democracy: http://www.citizen.org/TPP

  8. “@danielhurstbne: Bishop on AFP death penalty rules: “A ministerial directive is an entirely different document..I’m not going to answer another Q. on that””

  9. [Anzacs were rapists]

    It is cast-iron historical fact that some ANZAC troops committed atrocities including rape. Well attested cases include Cairo 1915, Paris 1918, Japan 1946.

    Obviously it is not true that that is a general truth about ANZAC troops.

    [and the nuking of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were acts of terrorism??? After Iwo Jima and Okinowa it undoubtedly saved hundreds of thousands of allied lives.]

    That’s the standard historical opinion but it is not undoubted. That position has been contested ever since 1945.

  10. [Where was all this concern about freedom of speech when Bolt was dragged through the courts? McIntyre can repeat his comments ad nauseum. Bolt can’t.]

    Bolt made factually inaccurate claims about specific individuals.

    McIntyre made arguable, but broadly factual claims about a historical event without naming individuals.

    The law treats these differently, unsurprisingly.

  11. No you didn’t Guytaur. You just cant answer it because then you would have to admit that his freedom of speech has not been compromised.

  12. Fox

    Ask Briefly WWP and other people how much I have gone on about that I spent a whole day on it. Just so you know everyone here agree or not know I have done so and you are fooling no one with your will not answer line.

  13. [That’s the standard historical opinion but it is not undoubted. That position has been contested ever since 1945.]

    Like climate change.

  14. Kakaru,

    He does have the right to ‘have a contrarian opinion regarding the Anzac tradition.’ Should taxpayers subsidize him? No. If I was an SBS employee and tweeted that aboriginal people are stupid, no doubt you wouldn’t apply the ‘McIntyre’ rule to me. Would you?

  15. [ The ALP guy interviewed on Sky was playing with a very straight bat . Labor’s enquiries merely to find out the facts. ]

    And as usual it seems that its simply having the historically verifiable facts laid out that the Libs are scared of.

    The 2010 ministerial directive states:

    [ In performing its functions and prioritising its activities I expect the AFP to adhere to Government policies and to:

    Take account of the Government’s long-standing opposition to the application of the death penalty, in performing its international liaison functions;

    The Government expects the AFP to report regularly to the Minister for Home Affairs on its performance. The Government also expects the AFP to report biannually on the nature and number of cases where information is provided to foreign law enforcement agencies in cases involving the death penalty. Consistent with the outcomes of the Attorney-General’s 2009 review, the AFP should take account of the Governments’ long standing opposition to the application of the death penalty; ]

    So thats what was in place and the reports are that a directive issued last year removed reference to the death penalty.

    Here’s a link to what i think is the current ministerial directive:

    http://www.afp.gov.au/about-the-afp/governance/ministerial-direction

    [ This Ministerial Direction is issued under subsection 37(2) of the Australian Federal Police Act 1979 (the AFP Act) and outlines the Government’s priorities and expectations for the Australian Federal Police (AFP). It supersedes and revokes the Direction issued on 1 July 2010 ]

    The words “death penalty” do not appear in that document.

    Thers is an internal AFP document (released under FOI) that Keenan referred to today that appears to be current.

    http://www.afp.gov.au/~/media/afp/pdf/ips-foi-documents/ips/publication-list/afp%20national%20guideline%20on%20international%20police-to-police%20assistance%20in%20death%20penalty%20situations.pdf

    From my read of all three documents i have linked to here i’d say that the Government has certainly de-emphasised the death penalty issue by removing reference to the death penalty in the current ministerial direction. They shifted the emphasis to “border” issues. They should legitimately be held to account for that shift in priorities, and why they CHOSE to remove reference to the death penalty from what appears to be the highest level of generalised direction they give to the AFP. They certainly didn’t NEED to remove those references and it could be argues that removal sent a signal to the AFP that death penalty issues are no longer a high priority for the Govt.

    Its a very bad look for the Govt. They have tried to “play a straight bat” on this, try to calmly argue a reasonable and possibly supportable position, and not do the hysterics of immediately jumping in with accusations of politicisation of the issue.

  16. [
    Guytaur
    You can’t answer the simplest question. How has his freedom of speech been compromised? Where was all this concern about freedom of speech when Bolt was dragged through the courts? McIntyre can repeat his comments ad nauseum. Bolt can’t.]

    Simply his employment relationship is about his ability to perform his talks for the employer. By all reports he is stand alone excellent in his field.

    He is entitled to believe and express his beliefs outside work (on non work related issues) and the employer should not any interests or rights arising from the views. That the employer can sack someone doing a good job because they don’t like his factually correct political views is an outrage. I never heard about the immigration guys but definitely the same rules should apply to them.

    That I work for x pty ltd is a public fact not a commercial secret and does / should not change anything.

    If x pty ltd ask me to put logos and rubbish on a personal account they take the risk (not me).

    If I put logos and other ip of my employer up without authorization then I should be in trouble.

  17. I can see why I am logging on to read PB less and less. BK and other sensible PBers are the main reasons I up to now have kept my Crikey subscription.

    Ignore the trolls completely(I know it is hard) but if this is done, they just look the one eyed fools they are!

  18. This may be of interest to all you Victorian pollbludgers who live in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne….

    A free public event is being run by ECAM (Eastern Climate Action Melbourne)…..

    Is Your Money Safe?: Divestment Forum & Expo, Wednesday 13 May 2015, 6.30pm to 9.30pm at the Box Hill Town Hall, 1022 Whitehorse Road, Box Hill (Melways ref 47 E9)

    Dr John Hewson wll be speaking at 7pm on “Climate Change – threats and opportunities for business and you)

    Bookings (are free): ecam-divestment.eventbrite.com

  19. [ They have tried to “play a straight bat” on this, try to calmly argue a reasonable and possibly supportable position, and not do the hysterics of immediately jumping in with accusations of politicisation of the issue. ]

    Oopps.

    They SHOULD have tried to play a straight bat. my bad. 🙁

  20. Another problem for the LNP in blaming Labor

    The issues raised are real. They need to be addressed. Labor did address them its part of the LNP defence. Now Labor is saying more change is needed as its the result that counts not how you get there.

    That is how it is going to be viewed by the average punter who don’t car what Labor put in at 2009 they just want no Australian citizen in front of a firing squad or other death penalty punishment

  21. The Coalition sure have playing the indignant, outraged and offended victim down pat.

    Better not ask them about the consequences of their policies on Aboriginals or refugees.

  22. Is there any opinion that an employee can freely express that ‘freedom of speech’ leftists would find intolerable? Apparently not. Someone should tell Barry Spurr.

  23. “@geeksrulz: Pretty certain AFP death penalty provision was removed to facilitate returning Asylum Seekers to Death Penalty countries. Not our problem.”

  24. BTW – The responsibility for the execution of Chan and Sukumaran lies with Chan and Sukumaran, not the AFP. They gambled and lost. I wonder how ‘reformed’ they would have been had they not been caught.

  25. [BTW, as for the nuking of Japan, one could argue that Nagasaki was overkill (quite literally). Didn’t Hiroshima make the point?]

    Japan didn’t surrender after Hiroshima despite many warnings they would have another nuke dropped on them, hence Nagasaki.

  26. I am sure I am not alone in finding the debate between the government and the opposition over who said what and to whom about the AFP and capital punishment more than unseemly.

    But I guess it is typical of the political debate these days.

    Robust democracy is one thing, making political points over two dead men is quite another.

    I doubt either side has clean hands. It gets down to “yours are dirtier than mine”

    What a shame

  27. [SBS had no choice but to fire McIntyre]

    Rubbish. They had plenty of other choices.

    An ARL player tweets a homophobic slur which is found to bring the game into disrepute and gets a $10,000 fine.

    Why is what SM said worthy of a far greater punishment?
    Ministerial intervention?

  28. Desert Pox

    [He does have the right to ‘have a contrarian opinion regarding the Anzac tradition.’ Should taxpayers subsidize him?]

    We continue to subsidise Cory Bernardi, even after he compared gay marriage to bestiality. Are you okay with that?

    [No. If I was an SBS employee and tweeted that aboriginal people are stupid, no doubt you wouldn’t apply the ‘McIntyre’ rule to me. Would you?]

    That’s racism, pure and simple. Do you not get the difference?

    If McIntyre maligned an individual, he could be sued for defamation. (You know, like how your mate Hockey dragged Fairfax through the courts for defamation because they said something about him that he thought was offensive…)

  29. I really don’t wish to know about each tiny movement of the return of the two coffins to Australian. This is milking the situation as if they were heroes killed in a military engagement.

  30. So Kakaru, you can say that all Anzacs are rapists but you can’t say that all aboriginal people are stupid?

    By your logic i can say that with impunity from my employer.

  31. [ said what and to whom about the AFP and capital punishment more than unseemly. ]

    ross, there are questions around this issue that need to be asked and answered. Its about accountability, mainly from the AFP. The facts of this matter need to be established and the Govts actions explained. It can be done calmly and clearly from the perspective of both sides of politics.

    So far indications are that the Govt doesn’t see “calm and reasoned” as being relevant. 🙁

  32. [Is there any opinion that an employee can freely express that ‘freedom of speech’ leftists would find intolerable? Apparently not. Someone should tell Barry Spurr.]

    So you ask – I answer and you do oh wait look over there. Not very impressive.

    I think if an employee objects to the activity of the employer, eg a greenie and a coal miner they should either not accept the job or remain silent on their beliefs. An employee should never breach comfidentiality or use company ip without permission. Then there are special cases. If you are a political journalist who is supposed to be neutral (eg abc, guardian other publications of integrity) you should not express a personal political view.

    I don’t think any of these are particular or peculiar to social media. Nor do I think a sports journo who lived in Tokyo should have any limits, including based on his employment, on expressing their view of a war on Anzac day.

    I hope he takes sbs to the cleaners with some top lawyers. It would be nice for the rest of us if they actually went to court and established some principals.

  33. lizzie

    I think showing the journey of the coffins of military dead is over the top as well.

    All we need see if at all is the report of the death and then maybe the funeral.

    At the very least the over the top coverage just increases the intrusion onto the family at a time of grief.

  34. [So Kakaru, you can say that all Anzacs are rapists but you can’t say that all aboriginal people are stupid?]

    He didn’t say all Anzacs were rapists.

  35. Having difficulty understanding why my little crack yesterday at TBA has been ‘snipped’ whilst so many other equally or more derogatory ones are allowed to stand.

    Seems to me, TBA’s only genuine reason for coming here is to illicit precisely the kind of response he frequently receives.

    If he/she didn’t derive some form of sick pleasure from other people’s reaction, he/she/it would surely post only on Bolt’s blog.

    Just feeding the beast, really.

  36. guytuar
    “Bishop now attacking Labor on AFP guidelines.
    Labor Politiscing. On the issue.”

    Mick Keelty politicised the AFP 15+ years ago when he brown nosed Howard over AFP profile & funding.( the Bali executions are collateral damage as far as he is concerned )

    He is our version of J E Hoover

  37. It was poor form of Feeney to make an issue of this at this time. Enquiries could have been made directly without going public and at a more appropriate time. I hope Labor take some heat for this. It’s disgusting.

  38. guytaur

    That’s how I feel, too.

    I see that Grecian 2000 Andrews (who has had a haircut to make himself look more in tune with the military) has managed to put both feet in it and say all the things that Julie and Tony avoided.

Comments Page 3 of 39
1 2 3 4 39

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *