BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

The latest weekly poll aggregate reading suggests the Coalition’s recent recovery has tapered off, but leadership ratings continue to be a fly in Bill Shorten’s ointment.

Two new polls this week from ReachTEL and Essential Research cause the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to tick 0.3% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred, which yields only one gain on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. The leadership ratings have been updated with the results from Morgan’s phone poll, a strikingly good (relatively speaking) result for Tony Abbott that causes the already sharp momentum in his favour to carry him to parity with Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister. Full results as always on the sidebar.

For those wishing to discuss next week’s British election, note that the dedicated post has been bumped up the order and appears below this one (with a new Seat of the Week below that). Home news:

Cameron Atfield of Fairfax reports the Queensland Senate vacancy created by the resignation of Brett Mason, who has taken up the position of ambassador to the Netherlands, has attracted nine Liberal National Party candidates. They include Nicholas Monsour, managing director of a consultancy firm and brother-in-law of Campbell Newman; Bill Glasson, an ophthalmologist, former Australian Medical Association president and twice candidate for Griffith, firstly against Kevin Rudd at the 2013 election and then at the by-election held the following February after his resignation; Theresa Craig, president of the Agribusiness Association of Australia; Kerri-Anne Dooley, unsuccessful state election candidate for Redcliffe; along with “company director Teresa Harding, project officer Joanna Lindgren, company director Chris Mangan and lawyers Philip Roberts and Andrew Wallace”. The matter will be determined at a meeting of the party’s state council on May 16.

Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports that Queensland Labor’s preselection nominations process is approaching its conclusion with no candidates emerging in opposition to Wayne Swan in Lilley, despite earlier talk he might face a challenge, or Milton Dick in Oxley. Dick stands to succeed sitting member Bernie Ripoll, who will retire at the next election after appearing to be headed for defeat at the hands of Dick in any case.

• The Australian Electoral Commission is inviting submissions for the federal redistribution of New South Wales until May 22, and for the Australian Capital Territory redistribution until May 29.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,936 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. Well the first awards where created 110 years ago in agriculture – given four corners tonight it’s conclusive proof that awards don’t work and ought to be abolished.

  2. victoria:

    4Corners expose something for our Freedom Commissioner to tackle, perhaps? Wonder if he will.

  3. QandA has been all domestic violence so far. No RET discussion. Am not annoyed with this despite importance of RET.

  4. [Tim Wilson @timwilsoncomau · 32m 32 minutes ago
    Involuntary labour is the ultimate denial of individual rights & freedoms and must be tackled #4Corners]

    LOL Tim’s all over it until Abetz puts him back in his box!

  5. Shorten” and has been boasting the Government could win even if the Coalition started the election campaign four points behind Labor.

    Quoting “colleagues”, a “Cabinet minister” and “a bureaucrat involved in the Budget process”, Oakes speculated whether a double dissolution election would be held soon after the anticipated good-news budget, particularly given the Government could hardly afford to deliver another voter-friendly budget (with no spending cuts) before the scheduled election in 2016.

    The telltale indication whether this is Oakes idly connecting the dots or a concerted leak from the Government can be found in the words of the quoted Cabinet minister. According to Oakes, the senior minister had “sneered at the idea only a few weeks ago” but has recently said a DD election is “not beyond the realms of possibility”.

  6. Jones

    [With respect that goes nowhere near answering the question. Maybe its because you don’t have one. Thats fine]

  7. [guytaur
    …Oh oh danger for the LNP Singer is using a birthday cake example]

    Australia emits more per capita than other countries for a whole range of reasons.

    Are you suggesting we ramp up fracking?
    Should we implement widespread use of nuclear energy?

  8. Happiness

    We had a good solution. Then the wrecker came and wrecked them.

    Now under Abbott we are not even going to meet the % target. Thats massive failure

  9. “@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (-1) ALP 52 (+1) #auspol”
    “@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 39 (-2) ALP 35 (-1) GRN 12 (+1) #auspol”

  10. [guytaur

    We had a good solution.]

    What good solution? The one the ALP government scrapped when it campaigned on “axe the tax” because (as Rudd put it) the carbon tax was having a negative impact on cost of living for struggling families.

    Exactly what is the ALP narrative on this issue?

  11. This is a few hours older of course

    “@GhostWhoVotes: #Morgan Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46.5 (-0.5) ALP 53.5 (+0.5) #auspol”

    “@GhostWhoVotes: #Morgan Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 40 (+1.5) ALP 37.5 (-0.5) GRN 11.5 (-0.5) #auspol”

  12. Happiness

    The solution Abbott repealed and called the carbon tax. The one the rest of the world calls a trading system.

  13. [GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Shorten: Approve 34 (+1) Disapprove 50 (-1)

    #Newspoll Abbott: Approve 37 (+4) Disapprove 56 (-3)]

    Abbott -19 and Shorten -16

    Is this good for Abbott or bad for Shorten I wonder?

  14. Happiness

    Rudd’s proposal was to move straight to an ETS – which has always been Labor’s end aim, despite various diversions forced upon it along the way.

    That’s also the recommendation of virtually every economist who’s examined the issue — and was Turnbull’s preferred option as well.

    Only the other day you stated that one of your reasons for supporting Turnbull was that he would take more sensible action on climate change, which suggests (surely) that you don’t think that Hunt’s present actions are ideal.

  15. [1906

    Tim Wilson @timwilsoncomau · 32m 32 minutes ago
    Involuntary labour is the ultimate denial of individual rights & freedoms and must be tackled #4Corners

    LOL Tim’s all over it until Abetz puts him back in his box!]

    We should abolish indentures immediately. s.457 workers are indentured. The system means they may come and work but are not free to leave an exploitative situation. Such workers are essentially bonded labour. This was a feature of labour relations in the 19th century…

    [1860s – Opening up the tropical north

    It was commonly believed at this time that white people could not labour safely in the tropics. White labour was also scarce in the period after convict transportation ended and was expensive: its use would limit the competitiveness of Australian tropical industries in comparison with those based in Indonesia or South Africa where labour was much cheaper. The idea of using ‘coloured’ labour to expand the north grew from these considerations. A Mackay plantation owner commented:

    “It has been conclusively proved … that white men cannot and will not do the work done by niggers in the field, and … that if white labour were available, it would only be at wages which the planters could never afford to pay. The sugar industry is entirely dependent upon coloured labour.”

    1863 – ‘Coloured’ labour

    The first group of 67 South Sea Islanders were brought to Queensland to work on a cotton plantation. However, as cotton proved unviable, the sugar industry began developing around this time and most South Sea Islanders brought to Australia worked as manual labourers in the sugar cane fields. Others worked as domestics or shepherds on grazing properties, while some were transported into the west of the state to work on cattle stations. In this early period they were usually brought to Australia by force or trickery.

    “Kidnapping was common in the Solomons in the 1870s, mirroring the initial phase of the labour trade in the New Hebrides in the 1860s … The Islanders often thought the men on the big ships wanted to barter … but when they tried to trade … their canoes were smashed and they were forced on board … Others were kidnapped from their canoes while they were fishing.”

    For the first five years or so, many recruits had no legal protection in Queensland law and employers were largely free to exploit them at will. Only those few on formal labour contracts were protected by the Queensland Master and Servants Act 1861.

    1868 – Polynesian Labourers Act (Queensland)

    This was the first legislation introduced to regulate labour trafficking of Pacific Islanders into Queensland. It aimed to stamp out the practice of kidnapping South Sea Islanders. One estimate is that about 5% of Islanders were actually abducted, with at least another 20-25% procured by other illegal methods.

    The 1868 Act established a system of indentured labour for South Sea Islanders. They were supposed to sign up to three year contracts on a minimum wage of £6 per year, payable at the end of the contract plus rations. However, some Australian South Sea Islanders today report that the system was not policed and that their forebears were not protected by contracts and did not receive any wages.

    “I maintain that it was a form of slavery. It is true that some people in the later years signed a contract to work for three years. But my father didn’t, neither did his brother and neither did their sister. They were paid nothing whatsoever.”]

  16. Just saw 4 corners over here. Have to admit that one thing i really like about their report tonight was that there was no stuffing around. They named names and made pretty direct claims.

    Good on them.

  17. Interesting regarding “law enforcement” / worker exploitation.

    Enforcing the laws so that those horrid buyers from overseas can come and buy all our mega expensive property so pushing up prices is a priority for the Govt. They decided to do that all on their own.

    Enforcing laws so that people get paid the minimum wage and decent employment conditions?? Maybe not so much the priority….unless of course you want to include stripping penalty rates in the same conversation???

  18. The ATO has just handed over documents to the Senate revealing that price-transfer tax avoidance is estimated to have been well over $100bn in 2013 alone.

    At a tax rate of 30%, imagine what the Budget would look like if those companies weren’t rorting the system (or if the Government weren’t letting them)!

    What a return for Rio Tinto, which (publicly) shelled out $4.2 million on its misleading attack ads against the MRRT, and (privately) another $4.25 million through assorted fronts. Rio Tinto Australia avoids paying taxes on $719 million through Singapore annually…

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