BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

The latest weekly poll aggregate reading suggests the Coalition’s recent recovery has tapered off, but leadership ratings continue to be a fly in Bill Shorten’s ointment.

Two new polls this week from ReachTEL and Essential Research cause the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to tick 0.3% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred, which yields only one gain on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. The leadership ratings have been updated with the results from Morgan’s phone poll, a strikingly good (relatively speaking) result for Tony Abbott that causes the already sharp momentum in his favour to carry him to parity with Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister. Full results as always on the sidebar.

For those wishing to discuss next week’s British election, note that the dedicated post has been bumped up the order and appears below this one (with a new Seat of the Week below that). Home news:

• Cameron Atfield of Fairfax reports the Queensland Senate vacancy created by the resignation of Brett Mason, who has taken up the position of ambassador to the Netherlands, has attracted nine Liberal National Party candidates. They include Nicholas Monsour, managing director of a consultancy firm and brother-in-law of Campbell Newman; Bill Glasson, an ophthalmologist, former Australian Medical Association president and twice candidate for Griffith, firstly against Kevin Rudd at the 2013 election and then at the by-election held the following February after his resignation; Theresa Craig, president of the Agribusiness Association of Australia; Kerri-Anne Dooley, unsuccessful state election candidate for Redcliffe; along with “company director Teresa Harding, project officer Joanna Lindgren, company director Chris Mangan and lawyers Philip Roberts and Andrew Wallace”. The matter will be determined at a meeting of the party’s state council on May 16.

• Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports that Queensland Labor’s preselection nominations process is approaching its conclusion with no candidates emerging in opposition to Wayne Swan in Lilley, despite earlier talk he might face a challenge, or Milton Dick in Oxley. Dick stands to succeed sitting member Bernie Ripoll, who will retire at the next election after appearing to be headed for defeat at the hands of Dick in any case.

• The Australian Electoral Commission is inviting submissions for the federal redistribution of New South Wales until May 22, and for the Australian Capital Territory redistribution until May 29.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,936 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. ESJ @1846:

    [Even slow learners sometimes get the correct lesson finally I guess.]

    What’s your excuse? You haven’t learned anything that didn’t come directly from Liberal HQ for at least a decade.

  4. Instead of fixing the bloody boats EDJ, we should fix everything else first, like drought, copper network and so forth.

  5. victoria:

    Even funnier that he writes for a paper that describes itself as the heart of the nation. 😀

  6. [At the heart of the Textor research is a paradox. People’s fears are such that they realise the policy status quo is increasingly untenable — yet they are apprehensive about the ability of the political class to make viable and fair changes.]

    This is not a paradox. The former follows from the latter.

    But beyond this, the nomenclature is of a “political class”. This conceals the obvious differences between politicians and parties with respect to values, understandings and policies. Not all politicians are the same.

    I read Livingstone’s speech. It reads as if the interests of business and non-business constituents are interchangeable. This is a fiction. “Business” competes for resources with other elements in the economy and are specifically organised for that purpose.

  11. [It is from the Daily Mail but love the headline.

    Is the budget crisis THAT bad? Clucky Tony Abbott sends cream-coloured merino wool blanket to newborn royal princess on behalf of the nation… and it’s worth just $99]

    He’s a cheap prick.

  13. re ESJ: ‘Boats’ are a fourth order issue. Posters here don’t respond to the dogwhistle. We won’t infect a malificious fool like Abbott on the country because we want to keep brown people from clogging our freeways, as one idiot Western Sydney Liberal MP (with ‘sex appeal’) would have it.

    Why don’t you try to convince us that the copayment is a good thing, that medicare needs to be dismantled, that universities need to be deregulated and their fees much higher, that multinationals pay enough tax, that we’re spending too much on health and education and other stuff that you, as a Liberal mouthpiece, must believe in.

  16. [
    Is the budget crisis THAT bad? Clucky Tony Abbott sends cream-coloured merino wool blanket to newborn royal princess on behalf of the nation… and it’s worth just $99
    ]

    That’s still $99 more than he should have spent. Bloody Royal family.

  18. “@UnitedVoiceOz: Unions often needed most in hardest to access workplaces. Even ABC #4corners had to use hidden camera to expose dodgy employers.”

  19. “@Pollytics: Baiada have a long history of this outrageous behaviour #4corners The correlation between anti-union and worker exploitation approaches 1”

  20. Re Guytaur @1864: spot in. Australian workers didn’t win decent wages and conditions because of the goodness of the hearts of employers over the last 200-something years.

  21. I thought I heard something very strange on the TV, ABC TV News SA, as I made a coffee in the adjacent kitchen.

    So I looked for what thought I heard and found this:

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/treasurer-joe-hockey-refuses-to-set-surplus-date-as-economy-struggles-20150420-1mo8pn.html

    [Treasurer Joe Hockey has refused to name a date for a surplus, …..
    Just weeks before he hands down his make-or-break second budget, Mr Hockey said that the government would deliver a surplus “as soon as possible” but declined to set any time frame]

    It was the ‘soon as possible’ bit I heard …. and this which followed:

    [“We never put a date on returning to surplus,” he told the ABC’s Insiders on Sunday]

    And it was the last bit which surprised me.
    Cos I was sure that he had previously said they were going to have a surplus in the first year.

    Yep, sure enough, he did say that:

    [SHADOW treasurer Joe Hockey insists a coalition government will deliver a surplus in its first year….

    But Mr Hockey says he hasn’t abandoned a pledge made last year to deliver a surplus in the coalition government’s first year…..

    “Our commitment is emphatic,” he told ABC radio this morning.
    “Based on the numbers published today we will deliver a surplus in our first year and every year after that.”]

    From here:
    http://www.news.com.au/national/joe-hockey-pledges-coalition-will-deliver-first-year-budget-surplus/story-fncynjr2-1226563213170

    Do I presume the shit has hit the fan in the media over this blatant bull manure?
    Or perhaps not?

    http://www.news.com.au/national/joe-hockey-pledges-coalition-will-deliver-first-year-budget-surplus/story-fncynjr2-1226563213170

  22. [That’s still $99 more than he should have spent. Bloody Royal family.]

    LOL that’s my view too!

  23. guytaur

    [“@UnitedVoiceOz: Unions often needed most in hardest to access workplaces. Even ABC #4corners had to use hidden camera to expose dodgy employers.”]
    Exactly why the Libs are red hot for introducing laws restricting union access to workplaces.

  26. [William Bowe
    Posted Monday, May 4, 2015 at 6:05 pm | PERMALINK
    Galaxy’s polling for The Oz will still be branded as Newspoll.

    But will it BE Newspoll.

    I don’t think so.

    Think: Cherry Coke.

  27. “@ayrestim: These revelations deserve immediate comprehensive Cth action. Disgusting. #4Corners 417 and 457 visa programmes should be suspended.”

    Sums up my view as well

  28. There probably won’t be a Princess Diana, although maybe William might secretly want to name the baby after his mother.

  30. [1872
    confessions

    That’s still $99 more than he should have spent. Bloody Royal family.

    LOL that’s my view too!

    Abbott is obviously very sentimental about the royals. How odd that is.

  31. Another first Tuesday. Another round of interest rate predictions.

    WHY DO THEY BOTHER?

    (We’ll all effing know tomorrow anyway)

  33. ABC News 24 covered the “surplus in our first year and every year” in their story on the refusal to give a timeframe for surplus this evening.

    The exploitation of foreign workers by labour hire companies is, unfortunately, as surprising as it is acceptable.

  35. “@JoshBBornstein: Personally, I think the IPA & Senator Leyinhjelm should prioritise campaigning to eliminate all air traffic regulations.
    #4corners”

  36. William Bowe

    [Newspoll used to be a company – now it’s merely a brand.]
    Has Rupert thrown them on the refuse pile or is this just a bit of outsourcing ?

  37. [Abbott is obviously very sentimental about the royals. How odd that is.]

    Awarding Phil the Greek an Australian knighthood transcends mere sentimentality into something else entirely. More like bowing and scraping sycophancy. It is way more than odd IMO.

  41. [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, May 4, 2015 at 8:54 pm | PERMALINK
    [William Bowe
    Posted Monday, May 4, 2015 at 6:05 pm | PERMALINK
    Galaxy’s polling for The Oz will still be branded as Newspoll.

    But will it BE Newspoll.

    I don’t think so.

    Think: Cherry Coke.]

    Sounds to me like we will in effect be getting a Galaxy every two weeks. On Newspoll’s recent performances I think I would prefer that.

  42. Seriously?

    [Reports that some temporary visa workers are not being treated in accordance with Australian laws demonstrate the case for improved enforcement rather than new laws, the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry said today.

    Kate Carnell AO, CEO of the ACCI, said: “Enforcing compliance is critical to maintaining public confidence in the migration system. The recent independent inquiry into 457 visas found there was a need for better resourcing of compliance bodies, both in the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP) and the Fair Work Ombudsman (FWO). We also need stronger education programs for employers, visa holders and the general public so that complaints are directed to the appropriate body.]

    http://acci.asn.au/Research-and-Publications/Media-Centre/Media-Releases-and-Transcripts/Better-compliance,-not-more-laws,-needed-to-protec.aspx

  47. victoria:

    [Possum @Pollytics · 5m 5 minutes ago
    @awelder @ACCIBizVoice Imagine their whinging if the loose laws as they stand were enforced to the level required to close the looseness!]

    Perhaps ACCI should be careful for what they wish for!

  49. The 457 Visa program has its origins in changes introduced by the Keating Government to make it easier for multinationals and overseas corportations operating in Australia to bring in managers from other parts of the company. It was later extended (by Howard?) to fill specific skill shortages. Now it’s being widely abused as a means to exploit migrant workers and bypass Australian workplace laws and conditions.

    It is probably impractical to shut the program down entirely, but until it can be reformed to get back to its original purpose, those using it should be thoroughly audited and prosecuted to the full extent of the law if any malpractice is found. Maybe also make sure that companies who use these ‘labour hire’ companies cannot abrigate their responsibility. If the labour hire firm found to be abusing the system can’t pay up stolen wages, send them bankrupt, send their management to jail and the company using the firm is responsible for the balance.

  50. Excellent tweet from George Bludger

    [We don’t need laws, we don’t need regulations, we don’t need unions, we just need to “enforce” what’s left after we destroy them all – LOL!]

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